global warming and what to do about itoakham/slides-cc... · 2019. 9. 24. · outline of...

GlobalWarmingandwhattodoaboutit

GeraldOakham PeterBlack

PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 12019-09-15

ActiontolimitClimateChangeisUrgentlyNeededHEADLINES:-• “Climatechangeismakingsomehomesuninsurable”(CBCBusiness)• “ParismarkshottestdayonrecordasheatwavescorchesWesternEurope”(Globe&Mail- July)• “ThisJunewastheplanet’shottestmonthinrecordedhistory”REALITY:-• Globalwarming,causedbyhumans,isalreadyhappening• Ifglobalwarmingcontinuesunchecked,ourwayoflifewillworsenforever

ACTION:-• LobbypoliticiansandelectagovernmentthatwillactonClimateChange


OutlineofPresentation

• GlobalWarming• It’sextentandcause• Theharmitiscausingalready• Thegreaterharmitcouldcauseifleftunchecked

• Responsestoglobalwarming• Mitigation• Adaptation


GlobalWarming’sExtentandCause• Globaltemperaturehasrisenby1degreesincestartofIndustrialRevolution• Canadiantemperatureshaveincreasedbyalmostdoublethisamount

• ThisiscausedbyemissionsofGreenHouseGases(GHGs)duetohumanactivity


“Historical”globaltemperatures

• Temperaturerecordreconstructedbylookingaticecores,fossilcomposition,treeringgrowth,etc.

• Smoothtemperaturevariationsoverpast2000yearswithsuddenincreaseinpastcentury

• Variationslocalnotglobal

PlottakenfromWikipedia,GlobalTemperatureRecord


GlobalTemperaturessinceIndustrialRevolution

FromIPCC.Figure2.1SR1.5Chapter1

Globaltemperatureisaverageofmanyreadings

Globaltemperatureshaverisen1degreeinpast150years.

Globalwarmingcausedbyhumanactivity.


PlotfromIPCC=InternationalPanelonClimateChange

Greyshade– actualglobaltemperaturesYellowshade– temperatureriseattributedtohumanactivity

1860 2000

CO2 andOperationofPlanet’sBiosphere• Carbondioxide(CO2)ismajorcomponentofcycleoflifeonEarth• Plantsabsorbcarbondioxide(CO2)andgiveoffoxygen• HumansandotheranimalstakeinoxygenandexhaleCO2

• CO2 levelshavebeenbelow300ppmforpast800,000years.**

• Inlastfewhundredyears,CO2 emissions“exploded”• InventionofmachinesandelectricityproductionbasedonfossilfuelsemittingCO2

• Hugeincreaseinpopulationandincomes• DeforestationforagriculturereducedplantlifetoabsorbCO2

• Meatconsumption=moreanimalsproducingmethane,anotherGHG

• CO2 levelsinAtmospherenowcloseto400ppmandrisingrapidly


**BasedonplotfromUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration

Greenhouseeffect

2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 8

ComparisonofCO2 andTemperatureChanges

RiseinglobaltemperatureiscausedbyrisinglevelsofGreenHouseGases(GHGs)suchasCO2.

RisinglevelsofatmosphericCO2 areconsistentwithamountofCO2emittedbyhumanactivity.


2000

400

300

1900

AverageCanadiantemperatureshaveincreased1.7Cdegreesbetween1948and2016.

Temperatureincreasesinthenortharehigher:2.3C.

FromCanada’sChangingClimatereport(2019)


+40-1 C

TemperatureincreasesinNorthernLatitudes

• Globalwarmingresultsinhigherincreasesatlocationsclosertopoles• A coupleofreasonsforthis:-1)Localeffects• Astemperaturesrise,snowandicemelt(formoreofyear)• Lesssunlightreflectedbacktospace(albedoeffect)• Higherlocalwarming

2)Globaleffects• Astemperatureswarm,atmosphericcirculationincreases• Agreaterpercentageofheatgetstransferredfromthetropicstothepoles

2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 11

Outline


• Responsestoglobalwarming• mitigation• adaptation


WorldwideHarmCausedbyGlobalWarmingAlready(I)• AtthePoles• LossofArcticSeaIce• LossGreenlandGlacialice

• Inonedayin201812.5billiontonnes oficemelted

U.S.NationalSnowandIceDataCentre PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 132019-09-15

ArcticiceextentinJuneinmillionsofsquarekm

Greenlandicemelt2019

1980 2020

1980- satellitedataavailable

WorldwideHarmCausedbyGlobalWarmingAlready(II)• Oceanacidification,deathoflargepercentageofcoralreefs• Leadstospeciesloss

• Globalchangesinweatherpatterns• Moreintensetropicalstorms

TobyGardnerandcolleaguesfromtheUniversityofEastAngliainNorwich,UK


Coralreefloss

GlobalWarmingalreadyexperiencedinCanada

• MoreintenseforestfiresinBCandAlberta• FortMcMurrayfirein2016• Upto25%ofresidentsnowsufferingfromPTSDasaresult

• FrequentfloodsinEasternCanada• Ottawarecentlyhadtwo1-in-100yearfloodsinquicksuccession

• Permafrostinnorth• Homeshavetoberebuiltduetolossoffoundation• Iceroadsdonotlastaslong

• LossofIceinnorth• Impactonanimalsandsociety

• Increaseininvasiveplants/animalsfromSouthashabitatzonesmovenorth• IncreaseinLymediseaseinOntarioandQuebec


BlackLeggedtick

Outline


• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation

• Responsestoglobalwarming- adaptation


PredictionsofClimateChange:climatemodelling

• Predictionscomefrommodelsofearth’sbiosphere• ClimatescientistsuseseveralclimatemodelstoprovidemostlikelychangestoenvironmentduetoincreasesinGHGs• IPCCcombinesthesepredictions.• Variationsinpredictionsofmodelsgiverangeoflikelyoutcomes• Differentscenariosareusedtoexploreimpactofdifferenthumanactionssuchas:• “Businessasusual”• “CutGHGemissionsaccordingtoIPCCrecommendationtolimittemperatureincreaseto1.5C.“• (MoreonIPCCrecommendationslater.)


Projectedworldtemperaturerisesfordifferentscenarios

NotebluescenariorequiresbothreductioninGHGemissionsandcarboncapture(moreonthislater).

PlotfromFromIPCCAR5report

Scenarios:-Blue– optimistic actiontoreduceGHGemissionsRed– pessimistic littleactiontoreduceGHGemissions(GHG– GreenHouseGases)


AverageprojectedtemperaturerisesforCanada:BlueoptimisticRed- Pessimistic

FromCanada’sChangingClimatereport(2019)


1900 21002000

+15

0

+15

0

Whatharmwould 1.5or2degreewarmingcauseWhileprecisepredictionsaredifficult,thefollowingislikely:-• IcefreeArcticinsummerbythe2030s• MeltingGreenlandandAntarcticIceSheetsandoceanwarmingcausesealevelrise• (7msealevelriseifallGreenlandicemelts)

• Increaseinmajorweatherevents• Shiftingweatherpatterns(moresnow/lesssnowdependingonlocation),storms• Habitatlossforanimalsandhumans• Ecologicalmigration– politicalunrest


SealevelriseThishasbeenacceleratinginthepast5years

1900 2100

PredictionsofClimateChange:Tippingpoints• Theearth’sclimatehassemi-stablefeaturesthatcangiverisetorun-awaytemperatureincreases.(Tippingpoints)• Thiswouldbeinadditiontothetemperatureincreasesalreadydiscussed.• Examples:• Permafrost:meltingofpermafrostreleasesmethane,apowerfulGHGthatacceleratesglobalwarming• Arcticseaice:lossofseaicereducesalbedoeffect,moreheatisabsorbedfromsunwhichacceleratesglobalwarming• Greenlandglacier.Meltingdarkensglaciersurfaceleadingtolargerabsorptionofheatleadingtomoreicemelting

• Exacttemperatureatwhichtippingpointswouldbeginisdifficulttopredict!


Outline

• GlobalWarming

• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake



Mitigation– InternationalInitiatives

• 1992– UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(“UNConvention”)• aimtostabilizeGHGconcentrationstopreventdangerousinterferencewithclimatesystem

• ConferenceofParties(COP)– meetseveryyearsince1995• growingnumberofcountriesassessprogressandreachagreements

• 2015COPMeeting– ParisAgreement• 197countriesagreedtolimittheirGHGemissionsinordertolimitfutureGWtolessthan2.0degreesand“dotheirbest”tolimititto1.5degrees

• NextCOPmeeting– Chile2019– Dec2-13


Mitigation– InternationalInitiatives

• 1988- IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)• UNbodytosupportUNConvention• producesconsensusreportsbyleadingclimatescientistswithsupportofparticipatinggovernments• scientificauthoritysupportedbypoliticalrepresentatives

• Oct2018– IPCCSpecialReportonGlobalWarming(GW)• ParisAgreementwouldallowGWof3degreesby2100• limitingGWto1.5degreeswouldrequiredecreaseinnetemissionsfrom2010of45%by2030andzeronetemissionsby2050


FigurefromIPCCreportshowsthatinitiativesinParisAgreementwouldleadtoglobalwarmingexceeding1.5degreesby2040

Anyplantokeepwarmingbelow1.5degreesrequiresbothGHGcontrolandremovingCO2fromatmosphere(carboncapture)


CarbonCapture• AllIPCCscenariosassumesignificantamountofCarbonCapture• takingCO2fromatmosphereandputtingitintostableform

• Biological• Plantingtrees(limitedlandavailableforthis)

• Industrial• ChemicalprocessestoconvertCO2 tocarbontobeusedorstored.

• Requireslotofenergy(needcleanenergysource)• Moreefficientfrompointsource(factory)ratherthanfromatmosphere• SomeCO2 beingpumpedintooilwellstohelpextractoilandkeepCO2 underground

• Severalsmallcarboncaptureplantsexist– 4inCanada• Sofar,alltheseplantsworldwideonlycapture30Megatonnesperyear.

• (Canada’sannualCO2emissions>700MT/year.)• Greatdealofworkrequiredtoproduceeffectivecommercial-scaleplants


Outline

• GlobalWarming

• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• Canadianinitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake



Canada’sGreenHouseGasEmissions


SlidefromGovernmentofCanada


Year

Canada’sClimateChangeActionPlan(2016)(majorfederalmeasures)

• Increasingpriceoncarbon(certainprovinces)• $60billionoverdecade• Electric-vehiclerebate,publictransit,energyefficiency,lowcarbontechnology

• Regulations(planned)• Phaseoutcoal-basedelectricity• Reducecarboncontentinfuels(CleanFuelStandard– 2022-30)• Increasegasmileageincars/trucks

Source:GlobeandMail– Aug27andSep1andMarkJaccard website


NeedforRadicalActionisnowmainstreamnews

“Theclimateischanginginwaysthatcarrytheriskofcatastrophe

intheabsenceofradicalaction”

EconomistMagazineJuly2019


AchievingNetZeroEmissionsby2050(initiativeslikelyneeded)

• Decarbonizeelectricitygeneration• switchtorenewables– wind,solarbiomass,maintainnuclearpowerwhiledevelopingenergystorage.

• Decarbonizegroundtransportation– switchtoelectricorhydrogen• Industry– increasingpriceoncarbonemission• Energyefficiencyforbuildings– regulatebuildingcodesandretrofit• Forestmanagement– preventdeforestation,pursuereforestation/afforestation.• Setupcarboncaptureplants• someactivitieswillalwaysneedfossilfuels– airtravel,concrete

• Majormeasurestoaddressshiftinlabour force– supportneeded2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 32

Outline

• GlobalWarming

• Responsestoglobalwarming-mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativeswecantake–individuallyandcollectively



InitiativesWeCanTaketoreduceglobalwarming

• Individually• Reducecarbonfootprint• Purchasecarbonoffsets

• Collectively• ElectClimate-Change-EffectiveGovernments• Continuouslypressuregovernmentstotakeeffectiveaction


Individually- ReduceCarbonFootprint

Modifyconsumptionpatterns• electricity,homeheating• vehicleuse,travel• purchaselocalproducts

Switchtocleanertechnology- noworwhenitneedsreplacing• electricity– LEDlights• homeheating– insulationandfurnace• vehicle– moreefficientorcleaner:hybridorelectric


Individually- PurchaseCarbonOffsets

• Airplanetravel• purchaseoffsetforeachflight• airlinesandotherbusinessesprovideoffsets– e.g.,AirCanada

• Residentialandvehicleuse• offsetbusinesseswillusecarbonoffsetpaymentto“pull”renewableenergyontohydrogridortosupportbiomasstooffsetfossil-basedresidentialenergyuse– e.g,BullfrogPower• similarprincipleappliedtofuelusedinvehicle


ElectClimate-Change-EffectiveGovernments

• Onlygovernmentscanbringaboutradicalactionneeded• Governmentshaveuniquepowers• taxation• regulation

• Federalelection– October21• Needtoelectgovernmentcommittedtoeffectiveclimatechangeaction• NeedtounderstandCCplatformsofdifferentparties• Allpartieshavenowreleasedtheirpositionsonclimatechange


ElectC-C-EffectiveGovernments

• Pollsshow65%ofCanadianswantCC-effectivegovernment•Needtovoteforpartyinyourridingwith• effectiveclimatechangeplan• chanceofwinningriding

• Ifyourfavoured partydoesnothaveaclimatechangepolicyyouagreewith- lobbyyourridingcandidate,yourpartyleaderandyourpartytochange.• Beawareofissueswith“first-past-the-post”votingsystem.

• Votesplittingcanhaveunintendedconsequences• Possibletoelectcandidatewithonly35%ofthevote


ContinuouslyPressureCandidates/Governments

• Federalelection– presscandidatestotakeeffectiveaction• attendmtgs• meetwithcandidatesone-on-one• sendletters/emailstocandidatesvoicingyourconcerns

• Seewebsitefordraftletterstoelectioncandidates• https://people.physics.carleton.ca/~oakham/CC-main.html

• Afterelection,continuetopressyourMP


ElectClimateChangeEffectiveGovernments

• Wehave11yearstoreduceGHGemissionstolimitclimatechange

• OurGovernmentneedstomakechangesinnext18months

• WhichpartygetselectedinOctoberiscriticalforCanada’senvironmentandourfuture


ContinuouslyPressureGovernments

• Supportmovements/organizationswhicharedemandingradicalaction• FridaysforFuture• ExtinctionRebellion


FridaysforFuture

• Studentsonstriketopressuregovernmentstoact•MovementstartedbyGretaThunbergAugust2018• 16year-oldSwede

• Studentsstrikingin30countries• Severalrallies/protestsonParliamentHillin2019


ExtinctionRebellion

• BeganOxford,England– October2018• engageinnon-violentdirectactionandcivildisobediencetoprotestgovernmentinactiononclimatechange• Pressuregovernmenttoenactlegallybindingpolicymeasurestoreducecarbonemissionstonetzeroby2025

• ExtinctionRebellionOttawa• beganJanuary2019• talks,marches, trafficdisruption• 600members


Outline


• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake

• Responsestoglobalwarming-adaptation


Adaptation

• EvenwithmajorefforttolimitGHGemissions,temperatureswillriseandhaveanimpactonourlives.• Itisimportantatalllevelsofgovernmentthatplansareputinplacetodealwiththesechanges• Itisequallyimportantthatindividualstakethisintoaccountintheirplans


Adaptation:Government• FederalGovernment• Northernareaswillbeicefreeforlargepartsofsummer• Policyrequiredtodealwiththis- newnorthernbases,icecapableships,searchandrescuebases.

• ClimateemergencieswillputlargerstrainonArmedForces– needtoexpandforcesorcreatenewcivildefenseforce• Reviewhowinsurancepoliciesdealwithdisasters(roleofGovernment?)• Climaterefugeeclaimswillexceedlevelwehaveseensofar– apolicyisrequiredforthis


Adaptation:Government• Provincial/Federal• Floodingoncoastsandbesiderivers

• Whatisbestwaytohelpcitizens– financialassistance,payingthemtomove?

• Stormproofinghydrogrids•Municipalities• Updatefloodplainmaps– controlconstruction• Coolingcentres - planstoassistcitizensinheatwaves• Ensureemergencyplanningisuptodate


Adaptation:Canadians• General• Avoidbuyinghousesorlivinginareasdesignatedasfloodplains

• Homeupgrades• Toroofsforstrongerwinds(shingles)• Todealwithheavyrains(eavestroughs,downspouts,landscaping)• Tohomeinsulation

• Emergencypreparationsforextendedhydrooutages• Batteries,flashlights,batteryradio,cannedfoods,candles,etc• (currentbatteryback-upforcellphonetowersisquitelimited!)

• NorthernCanada??PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 482019-09-15

Concludingremarks


ClimateChangeActionisRequired• Globalwarmingisnotafutureevent– itishappeningnowandhavingmajorandvisibleimpacts• Globallywehave11yearstomakechangestolimitClimateChange• Wehave18monthstoputinplaceregulationsrequiredtomeetthe2030goal


ItiscriticalthatweelectagovernmentinOctoberthatwillmakethistheirtoppriority.

global warming and what to do about itoakham/slides-cc... · 2019. 9. 24. · outline of...

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