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Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates :. Indur M. Goklany Independent Scholar e-mail: Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, IL May 16–18, 2010. Organization of Talk. Empirical data Excess winter deaths - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Slide 1

Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates

:Indur M. GoklanyIndependent Scholarhttp://goklany.orge-mail:

Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, ILMay 1618, 2010

1Organization of TalkEmpirical dataExcess winter deathsExtreme eventsMalariaHunger, cereal yields, cereal productionLife expectancy Ranking GW among other global health risksPotential death & disease in developing countries from biofuel production

22Empirical Data33Mortality by Month, Various Industrialized Countries

Source: Falagas et al. (2009)44Excess Winter Deaths, Various Developed CountriesCountryExcess Winter DeathsBasisUS108,5002008Canada5,6442006UK36,70012/2008-11/2009 Australia 6,9731997-2006 New Zealand1,6001980-2003 Japan 50,8872006-07 France 24,9381995-2006 excluding 2004 Italy 37,4981950-2007 Spain 23,6451960-70, 1975-2007 Sweden 4,0341987-2007 Greece 5,8201960-2005 Cyprus3171996, 1998-2000, 2002-2006Sources: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009); CANSIM (2009); UKONS (2009); Falagas et al. (2009)55Excess Winter Deaths, England & Wales1950/51-2007/08

Source: UKONS (2009)66Shrinkage of the distribution of malariaTop: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007Source: WHO (2008).

77Chronic hunger in the developing world, 19692009(% of population)Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

88Cereal Yields and Production, 19612008Least Developed Countries & WorldSource: FAO (2010)

99Reasons for the increase of hungeraccording to FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009The 2006-2008 food price crisisThe global economic slowdownInsufficient investment in agricultureThe increase is not a result of poor crop harvest

Source: Life Expectancy . Economic Development, and CO2 Emissions, 17602007Source: Goklany (2010)

1111Ranking Global Warming Among Global Health Risks1212Global Health Priorities 2004 Data

Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)1313Potential Death & Disease in Developing Countries From Biofuel Production1414Identifying Diseases of Poverty 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)Ratio of Low Income to Lower Middle IncomeDeaths per capitaDisease Burden per capita1 Global climate change13.211.92 Underweight13.110.73 Zinc deficiency9.39.04 Vitamin A deficiency8.99.05 Unsafe sex 8.17.96 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene6.15.27 Unmet contraceptive need8.74.78 Indoor smoke from solid fuels1.94.79 Sub-optimal breastfeeding4.14.010 Iron deficiency5.12.611 Child sexual abuse1.81.812 Lead exposure1.71.613 High cholesterol1.11.314 High blood glucose1.21.115 Unsafe health care injections0.71.116 Physical inactivity0.91.117 Illicit drug use1.31.018 Low fruit and vegetable intake0.80.919 Occupational risks0.70.920 High blood pressure0.70.921 Urban outdoor air pollution0.50.822 Alcohol use0.60.623 Tobacco use0.60.624 Overweight and obesity0.50.61515Death & Disease From Diseases of Poverty 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)Risk FactorLost DALYs (000s)Deaths (000s)Industrial DevelopingIndustrialDeveloping1 Global climate change35,40101412 Underweight7790,60602,2253 Zinc deficiency315,57704334 Vitamin A deficiency122,09806515 Unsafe sex 1,08168,937442,3116 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene17464,06671,901Sub-Total (1 through 6)1,340266,684517,6627 Unmet contraceptive need1711,48501638 Indoor smoke from solid fuels641,00301,9649 Sub-optimal breastfeeding32843,51481,23910 Iron deficiency57219,1618265Sub-Total (1 through 10)2,262381,8476711,2941616Death & Disease in Developing Countriesper Million People in Extreme PovertyPoverty Headcount (millions)ThresholdCommentSource2004969OldChen & Ravallion (2007)20041,454*New* New = 1.5 x OldChen & Ravallion (2008)In 2004 due to 6 diseases of poverty, according to WHO (2009)Death & disease rate per million living in extreme poverty7.7 million deaths5,270 deaths per million267 million lost DALYs183,000 lost DALYs per million1717Death & Disease in Developing Countries in 2010Due to Biofuel Production Poverty Headcount (millions)CommentSource20051,374Differences due to country coverage

WB Global Economic Prospects (2009)20051,208De Hoyos & Medvedev (2009)2010798No biofuel production, Drop due to economic growthD&M (2009)2010+32Increase due to biofuel productionD&M (2009)Increase in Deaths = 192,000

Increase in Burden of Disease = 6.7 million 1818Potential Death & Disease due to Biofuel Production and Global WarmingDeaths Burden of DiseaseBiofuel Production (2010)Global Warming (2004)Biofuel Production (2010)Global Warming (2004)192,000141,0006.7 million5.4 million1919FindingsIn developed world, more people die in winter, but trend is downward due to greater wealth and fuel affordabilityDeaths and death rates from extreme weather events, malaria, hunger, and other climate sensitive health risks have declined over the long term Mortality Rates Life Expectancies GW ranks below the top 20 global health problems today, and will advance only if these other risks are solved firstDeath and disease from biofuel production more likely to be real than those estimated due to GWIncreased death and disease from biofuel production most likely exceeds any reductions from reduced GW

2020ConclusionsGW or its underlying human causes (if any) have not increased death and disease in the aggregate.In fact, they are probably responsible for the worldwide decreases in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy over the last century. GW policies may already have killed more than they have savedAnd may kill even more if they reduce energy use prematurely and/or economic development, particularly for the less well-off

212122THE ENDSupplemental slides follow 22Daily Mortality by MonthU.S.A., 2001-08

Source: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009)2323Daily Mortality by MonthCanada, 2001-06

Source: Goklany (2009a) based on CANSIM (2009)2424Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 19002008Source: Goklany (2009b)

2525Chronic hunger, Worldwide1969/712008/09Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

2626US Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Consumption and Economic Development, 19002006Source: Goklany (2010)

2727Contribution of Global Warming to Mortality from Hunger, Malaria & Flooding, 2085

Source: Goklany (2009b)2828