Prasad Modak

Environmental Management Centre LLP

Director, Ekonnect Knowledge Foundation

Global Warming and Us

2

Green House Effect: Global Warming

Increase in average temperature

on Earth due to Green House

Gases like CO2, NOx , CFC, CH4 ,

O3

Is it real?

Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change confirms Global Warming and Climate Change as Real Phenomena. Find More on

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Several local phenomena support the scientific evidences reported world over. India responds with National Action Plan on Climate Change. Refer http://www.energymanagertraining.com/NAPCC/main.htm

Observed changes

Global average

sea level

Northern hemisphere snow cover

Global average

temperature

Source: Direct observations of

recent climate change. GW1 SPM

p.5. Figure SPM.3. by AR5

Surface, balloon & satellite temperatures agree

Source: Met Office Hadley Centre Database, UK

Temperature increases are non-uniform: higher mid-continent, highest of all in far North. (These are observations, not modeling results.)

J. Hansen et al.,

PNAS 103: 14288-293

(26 Sept 2006)

2001-2005 mean ∆Tavg above 1951-80 base, °C

The frequency of heavy precipitation events

has increased over most land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:

1 million people lost their

homes

Source: climatecrisis.net

Source: climatecrisis.net

Source: climatecrisis.net

Muir Glacier, Alaska, 1941-2004

NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier

photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

August 1941 August 2004

Coastal glaciers are retreating

NASA photograph

Extent of Arctic summer ice in 1979 (top satellite image) and in 2003 (lower satellite image).

North Polar ice cap is sea ice -- it’s floating and so does not change sea level when it melts.

But the reduced reflectivity when the ice is replaced by water amplifies the warming effect of greenhouse gases.

Sea ice is shrinking

People exposed to increased water stress by 2020

120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 75 to 250 million in Africa 12 to 81 million in Latin America

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

50% by 2020 in some African countries 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

Impacts on poor regions

Impacts on India

• Rise in temperature: 2-5 C

• Subsequent Heat Waves

• Increase in 1-day and 5-day extreme rainfalls, particularly Maharashtra, MP, AP and Karnataka

Source: High-resolution climate

change scenarios for India for the 21st century by K. Rupa Kumar et all, IITM, 2006

How much of Global Warming is human-

caused? HUMAN INFLUENCES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE

• rising concentration of “greenhouse gases” (GHG) from deforestation, agricultural practices, fossil-fuel burning

• rising concentration of particulate matter from agricultural burning, cultivation, fossil-fuel burning,

• alteration of Earth‟s surface reflectivity by deforestation, desertification

• increased high cloudiness from aircraft contrails

NATURAL INFLUENCES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE

• variations in the energy output of the Sun

• variations in the Earth‟s orbit and tilt

• continental drift

• changes in atmospheric composition from volcanoes, biological activity, weathering of rocks

• “internal” dynamics of ice-ocean-land-atmosphere system

The main cause of the CO2 build-up in the last 250 years has been emissions from fossil fuels & deforestation

19

Industrial production is

responsible for 21% of all

CO2 emissions

9% of CO2 emissions are

transportation related. 57% of CO2 emissions result

from electricity generation

Residential sources account for

about 9% of carbon dioxide

emissions

CO2 emission by other

sectors is 4%

India: Sectoral

Contribution to

CO2 Source: CC Mitigation & Adaptation An Indian Perspective by Prof. S Kumar, Dean, Asian Institute of Technology

Science and Politics of Global Warming

M i t i g a t i o n ,

meaning measures to reduce the pace

& magnitude of the changes in global

climate being caused by human

activities.

A d a p t a t i o n ,

meaning measures to reduce the

adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate

that do occur.

S u f f e r i n g ? ( i s t h i s a C h o i c e )

the adverse impacts that are not

avoided by either mitigation or

adaptation

THE CHOICES

Promote a new development path?

The dominant path to industrialization has been characterized by high concurrent GHG emissions

Committing to alternative development paths requires major changes in a wide range of areas:

Economic structure : Low Carbon Economy

Geographical distribution of activities

Consumption patterns Demography

Leverage against CO2 emissions

• It could be accelerated. It entails more efficient cars, trucks, planes, buildings, appliances, manufacturing processes. This opportunity offers the largest, cheapest, fastest leverage on carbon emissions.

GETTING MORE GDP OUT OF LESS ENERGY

• the mix of fossil & non-fossil energy sources (most importantly more renewables and/or nuclear)

RIGHT MIX OF ENERGY SOURCES FOCUSING ON RENEWABLE ENERGY

• new frontiers in fossil-fuel technologies (most importantly with carbon capture & sequestration).

PRACTICING NEW PARADIGMS OF TECHNOLOGIES

0

Historical emissions

Reduced carbon intensity of the baseline economy

Emissions proportional to economic growth

2055 2005 1955

14

7

1.9

28

21

Stabilization Triangle

Flat path

Virtual Triangle

GtC/yr

Stabilizing would be possible if emissions were flat for ~50 years, then declined.

The green “stabilization triangle” represents the emissions that should & could be avoided by new policies (a depiction due to Socolow & Pacala).

Source: Pacala S & R Socolow: „Stabilizing wedges to solve climate problem in next 50

years‟ with current technologies‟, Science, 305

Corporate Commitments and Results

10% reduction

10% reduction $650 million saved

69% reduction $2 billion saved

65% reduction $791 million saved

25% reduction

9% reduction

6% reduction

10% reduction “It’s made us

more competitive”

25% reduction $100 million saved

13% reduction

Absolute cap

35% reduction $200 million saved

19% reduction

37% reduction

17% reduction

5% reduction

72% reduction

1% reduction $1.5 billion clean tech R&D

I am concerned..What Next?

The amount of GHGs emitted due to an individual’s every day activities on a personal level is called “Personal Carbon Footprint (CFP)”. The carbon footprint of an average Indian is 1.4 metric tons of CO2 equivalent in a year.

CFP of an Urban Indian is expected to be higher, perhaps close to 3.0 metric tons of CO2 equivalent

(Source: International Energy Agency, 2010)

Our Carbon footprint depends on…

• The resources we consume

• The mode of transport we use

• The electricity we use

• The waste we generate

The way we live!!!

Your transport choices for vacations

No. of LPG cylinders for cooking you buy

How often and how long you travel on vacations

Your monthly expenses for daily commute to work

Your monthly electricity bill

Six Things

you should know to

estimate your carbon

footprint…

What Can I Do? KnowCo2Now

• KnowCO2Now is a easy-to-use designed by EMC will

help you estimate your carbon footprint based on your

response to 14 easy questions.

• The questions posed relate to a few carbon-intensive

activities in your everyday life. An honest answer will

help you know your CFP and CFI and how your lifestyle

choices could influence the same.

• More on http://www.emcentre.com/knowco2now

Every unit of electricity (kWh) used

generates 0.82 kg of CO2 at the power station

http://www.flickr.com/photos/davipt/164341428/sizes/z/in/photostream/

Use CFLs at homes and offices. Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 84kg on every replacement. Reduce annual electricity bill by Rs. 409

http://www.flickr.com/photos/krossbow/4316763553/sizes/z/in/photostream/

Switch off unnecessary lights and fans

Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 28 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 134 per bulb and fan kept off for just an extra hour each day

If just 1000 homes do that, that’s 28000 kg of

CO2 less per year

Switch off the TV, Set top box and DVD player at the plug, not with a remote. Reduce annual CO2

emissions by 106 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 518 Source: Bureau of Energy Effiiciency

Buying a new home appliance?

Look out for the 5 star label and buy a higher star rated product

Fans (1200mm sweep) Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 36 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 176

Refrigerators (Frost-free) Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 269 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 1312

Air conditioners (1.5 tons split) Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 283 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 1382 Source: Bureau of Energy Efficiency

Per replacement you reduce

annual CO2 emissions by 205 to 279 kg

annual electricity bills by ` 1000 to 1360 http://www.flickr.com/photos/arbron/56216464/

Replace old desktops with laptops

Print responsibly

Just 500 sheets of double sided printing a month Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 87 kg

http://www.flickr.com/photos/der_dennis/1824103662/

Reduce printing in each department by just one ream of paper a month Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 87 kg

Use the geyser efficiently. Have baths in quick succession Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 344 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 1676 Reduce the temperature setting on the geyser. Geysers come with a factory setting of 60oC but you need water at only 40oC for a comfortable bath. Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 172 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 838

Source: Bureau of Energy Efficiency http://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisandhilleary/159821463/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/4226949360/

Use a pressure cooker Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 125 kg Save ` 1048 (cost of 3 cylinders)

Use fuel efficient cooking methods Reduce gas usage by 20 minutes a day to reduce annual CO2 emissions by 62 kg and save ` 524

Eat together Heating food at one go to reduce unnecessary use of the microwave for just 5 minutes can reduce up to 30 kg of CO2 emissions per year Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 146 Source: Operating manual of IFB microwave oven

Install a solar water heater

Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 687 kg Reduce annual electricity bills by ` 3352

http://www.flickr.com/photos/90417577@N00/2413226470/

Don‟t use the hot wash

setting Reduce CO2 emissions by 98 kg annually Reduce annual electricity bills by ‘478 Source: Operating manual of IFB machine

http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/3761878381/

Conserve water

Transportation & Carbon

Modern cars emit more CO2!!! Post-2000 petrol cars, with engine size more than 1,400 cc,

emits 143 gm/km of CO2. Average Fuel economy 16 km/litre But post -2005 models of same engine size emit 173 gm/km.

Average Fuel economy 13 km per litre. ARAI data analysis by CSE

Public transport contribute

much less of CO2 load Bus carry several times more people and consume

significantly less fuel per passenger

Trains are even more attractive

Every small car that goes off the road reduces Annual CO2 emissions by 1321 kg Annual fuel cost by ` 29352

http://www.flickr.com/photos/naturewise/4947484737/

Get driven to work….in a bus

Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 1194 kg

Save ` 29352 if you use the company bus

http://www.flickr.com/photos/85296574@N00/795107184/

Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 48 to 64 kg Reduce annual fuel cost by ` 1071 to 1417

http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulk/26896050/

Source: Central Road Research Institute, July 2010

Regularly inflate vehicle tyres

Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 150 kg

Reduce annual fuel cost by ` 3344

http://www.flickr.com/photos/truckpr/3990952616/

Waste Management & Carbon

The wet garbage from home is a major contributor of methane

Dumping is the practice followed and with it uncontrolled emission to atmosphere

But by segregation, the wet garbage can be composted locally

Follow 4R principle: Reduce, Repair, Reuse, Recycle

Send dry waste for recycling; earn money by the way !

Compost your kitchen wastes Reduce annual CO2 emissions by 68 kg

Buildings & Carbon

Green Buildings

Use of renewable or low energy intensive construction material and Structures designed optimizing on energy use in the life cycle

Energy Conservation Building Code 2006

Green Building Codes

Energy Efficiency, Environment Management, Water Management, Renewable Energy, Waste Management and Recycling

Benefits of Green Building Green building offers a range of economic and environmental benefits •30% to 40% reduction in operation cost

•Green Corporate image •Enhanced occupant comfort

Individual Action Counts Better if done collectively

Let us combat global warming

Acknowledgement for Sources of Slides and Statistics

1. Reports by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2. National Action Plan on Climate Change

3. Global Climate Change, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences UW – Madison

4. Climate Change: Can Science Save Us? By Dr R K Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC

5. ‘Low Carbon Lifestyle’ by Low Carbon Campaign during Commonwealth Games 2010, New Delhi(www.cwgdelhi2010.org)

6. ‘Meeting the Climate Change Challenge’ by John P. Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Centre

Dr Prasad Modak Environmental Management Centre

prasad.modak@emcentre.com O22-40049210/11/12

THANK YOU