El Niño: Impacts and Priorities for Action

17 March 2016, Rome

Global Overview of El Niño Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014 2015 2016 2017

El N

ino

/ L

a N

ina

Stre

ngt

h

El Nino - Timeline of Events and Impacts

Observed Forecast Assistance Required

Possible La Nina Impacts

SE Asia, Pacific

Ethiopia, Sudan, Somaliland

Increasing Vulnerability Central America/Haiti Southern Africa

Humanitarian

Impacts

Central America, Haiti

Southern Africa

El Nino La Nina (possible)

60 million now In need of assistance

EL NIÑO AFFECTED / AT RISK COUNTRIES FOR

FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE

High Priority

Moderately Affected

EL NIÑO RELATED DISASTERS AFFECTING FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE

Droughts

Floods

Storms

Fires

Extreme Temperatures

Changes in Sea Surface Temperatures

THANK YOU

IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE: NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED

Global: To date, the food security of almost 60 million people has been affected by El Niño

Latin American and the Caribbean: 6.4 million

East and Central Africa: 15.7 million

Southern Africa: 26.4 million

Asia and the Pacific: 11.1 million

IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE: CROP PRODUCTION

COUNTRY CROP PRODUCTION

Ethiopia 2015: - 90 to 50% (locally)

Haiti 2015: - 86% (locally)

Honduras 2015: - 60% maize, - 80% beans (locally)

South Africa 2016 forecast: - 25%

Indonesia

a) - 80% rice areas planted (locally) b) 2.6m Ha of forest and agricultural land destroyed by fire

IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE: LIVESTOCK

Severe impact on livestock mortality and morbidity in several regions due to floods, drought, extreme temperatures and spread of animal disease

Ethiopia: • Estimation: 869 000 households require animal feed support. • Over 1 million livestock died, with 1.7 million more reported at risk

Mongolia • As of Feb: 200 000 livestock died (In previous dzuds, 25-35% of all

livestock, up to 10 million died).

Southern Africa: • Over 40 000 cattle died due to the effects of drought

IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE: FOOD ACCESS AND MARKETS

• No global spikes in global agricultural prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

-04

No

v-0

4

Sep

-05

Jul-

06

May

-07

Mar

-08

Jan

-09

No

v-0

9

Sep

-10

Jul-

11

May

-12

Mar

-13

Jan

-14

No

v-1

4

Sep

-15

Maize – Malawi nominal (MKW/kg)

• However, significant impacts on local markets, particularly the more isolated ones.

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000 Ja

n-1

0

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Jul-

12

Dec

-12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Au

g-1

4

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Rice – Indonesia nominal (IDR/kg)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Black Beans – Haiti/PaP nominal (HTG/Kg)

LONG-TERM IMPACT OF EL NINO ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE (1)

• Adoption of negative coping strategies – sale of productive assets

• Increase in poverty rates and sale of assets render households less resilient

• Increase in malnutrition rates has long term impacts particularly on children

LONG-TERM IMPACT OF EL NINO ON FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE (2)

• Population movements and resulting tensions are likely as labour opportunities dry up

• Livestock related livelihoods: particularly susceptible to long term impacts given the long time frame required to rebuild herd numbers.

• Recurring droughts often result in loss of soil productivity, land degradation and contribute to desertification

• Households shift to unsustainable livelihoods which pressurize natural resources

THANK YOU