EL NIÑO BRIEFING NOTE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND OPTIONS FOR WBG RESPONSE

East Asia & Pacific (EAP) Regional perspective – March 2016

Update on the El Niño observation

As of March 2016, the 2015-2016 El Niño continues its slow and steady decline after peaking at the end of 2015, but this current trend does not mean that its impacts will diminish. International climate models indicate that cooling in the tropical Pacific will continue, with a likely return to neutral levels by mid-2016. For instance, the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) forecast, based on a synthesis of model forecasts for March to August, indicates the decaying phase of El Niño. The El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during late spring, early summer (Figure 1)i. For winter and spring, climate models favor ENSO neutral slightly ahead of La Niña. However, given that accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year are lower than those at other times, some caution should therefore be exercised.ii

Figure 1 - SST anomalies for MAM 2016 (top panel) and JJA 2016 (bottom panel). Source: APEC Climate Centre, Busan, South Korea

Historical records of previous El Niño events suggest that the likelihood of the current El Niño being followed by La Niña is the same as a return to neutral conditions, during the second half of 2016. Should it occur, La Niña could exacerbate the negative effects in countries that have experienced El Niño conditions.

Based on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre’s analysis there is a 50% chance of La Niña conditions in August-September-October 2016iii.

What could be the consequences of El Niño in East Asia?

The peak 3-month average strength of this El Niño, in terms of sea surface temperature anomalies observed during the final

Figure 2 - APCC Multi-model ensemble prediction of below normal, normal, above normal temperature for East Asia: - March-May 2016; Source APEC Climate Center

Figure 3 - APCC Multi-model ensemble prediction of below normal, normal, above normal temperature for East Asia: - March-May 2016. Source APEC Climate Center

Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology (January 2016)

quarter of 2015, make this event comparable to the very strong 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. However, the strength of an El Niño event does not necessarily closely correspond to its regional climate effects. At the regional level, seasonal outlooks need to assess the relative impacts of both the El Niño/ La Niña state and other locally relevant climate drivers. For example, in terms of temperature, for most of East Asia, a slight to high probability of above normal temperatures (Figure 2) is predicted for March-April-May 2016. A slight to medium probability of above normal temperatures is predicted for June-July-August 2016 over most of East Asia, especially the maritime continent and adjacent seas. In terms of rainfall, a medium to high probability of above normal precipitation is predicted for the parts of the Maritime Continent in East Asia. A high probability of below average precipitation (Figure 3) is predicted over and around the South China Sea, based on the APEC multi model ensemblei and the TCC analysis. By June-August, precipitation anomalies are expected to weaken in East Asia resulting in a slight probability of above normal precipitation over the continent and slight probability of below normal precipitation over South China Sea and Indochina. While Mainland Southeast Asia is likely to see dry conditions slightly improve over the next 6 months, Maritime Southeast Asia will begin to receive more rain and relief from severe drought.

What could be the consequences of El Niño in the Pacific?

Pacific islands have different climatic conditions based on their geographical location and the influence of climate drivers, including El Niño. The Central and Southern islands usually

i http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp

experience dry seasons from May to October, with countries such as Papua New Guinea receiving much less rainfall. The Northern islands, on the other hand, receive higher rainfall during May to October. Generally El Niño is associated with suppressed rainfall in most Pacific island countries which can result in drought. El Niño conditions can also lead to increased frequency of tropical cyclones, abnormal sea level conditions and increased rainfall in other areas. As a result, water shortages, food insecurity and diseases such as cholera, dengue, and malaria, which threaten more than four million people in the Pacific region, were observed during El Niño’s peak and will continue to affect most of these countries.iv For the Equatorial Pacific, a high probability of above normal temperatures is predicted in March-May (Figure 4) and persisting through June-August. A high probability of above normal precipitation is predicted for the Equatorial central Pacific. A high probability of below normal precipitation is

predicted over the seas east of the Philippines in March-May 2016 (Figure 5). A slight probability of below normal precipitation is afterwards predicted over the seas east of the Philippines in June-August 2016. Meteorological and climate centers across the Southwest Pacific are also indicating above average numbers of tropical cyclones (TC) for the 2015-2016 season (November 2015 to April 2016). Based on these analyses - issued in October 2015 -

Figure 5 - APEC multi model ensemble for below normal, normal or above normal precipitation for Pacific - March-May 2016. Source APEC Climate Center.

from Met Service and NIWA, New Zealandv, TC activity is elevated for a majority of the Pacific Island countries, especially those situated close to or east of the International Date Line. Eleven to thirteen named TCs, with at least six severe TCs (category 3 or higher)vi, are expected to form across the region during the season. All Pacific Islands should remain vigilant in case conditions in the equatorial Pacific change during the TC season. Past El Niño seasons have seen TC tracks with increased sinuosity (irregular or looping motions rather than a curvilinear trajectory), which means they have potential to impact a larger area than usual.

What are the main observed impacts in the EAP region?

The El Niño Southern Oscillation climatic pattern spreading across Asia Pacific region is expected to be the most severe to affect the region since 1997-98. Building since the middle of 2015, the El Niño was expected to peak at the end-2015, gradually weakening through spring/summer of 2016.

The current El Niño has been linked to flooding and drought affecting agricultural production, exports and water-dependent industries, as well as the livelihoods of at-risk communities. Losses are expected to be lower than they were during the 1997-1998 El Niño but all countries are still expected to face challenges compounded by smaller harvests, water scarcity and

food shortages.vii In East Asia and the Pacific, the following

countries are likely to be the most affected by this weather phenomenon: High Impact Countries:

Indonesia, PNG, Pacific Islands↑, Vietnam↑ & Mongolia ↑

Moderated or Limited Impact Countries:

Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Philippines & (China ↓)

Indonesia (EACIF) - March 2015

Indonesia has historically one of the strongest El Niño traction in EAP due to direct influence of coastal warming, with marked rainfall deficits extending throughout the year. Agricultural

production, as well as water supplies, forestry, fisheries and agroforestry industries are affected. The 2015 El Niño had a major impact on forest fires, haze occurrence, and drought. According to the Government 2.6 million hectares of land was burned between June and October 2015. About 33 percent of the total area burned was peatlands, leading to noxious haze that blanketed parts of Indonesia and the region, disrupting transport, trade, and tourism, forcing school closures and negatively affecting health. Underground fires that continue to smolder in the deep peatlands are expected to re-emerge in the end of the rainy season in April–May 2016. Analysis by the World Bank as published in the December 2015 Indonesia Economic Quarterly estimated a total cost of USD 16.1 billion (IDR 221 trillion) or equivalent to 1.9 percent of 2015 GDP. This is more than twice the reconstruction cost following the Aceh tsunami. According to these estimates, fire and haze have resulted in damage and loss values ranging between IDR 11.9 trillion (USD 866 million) in Jambi to IDR 53.8 trillion (USD 3.9 billion) in South Sumatra. As a share of provincial GDP, Central Kalimantan is estimated to have suffered the most – 34 percent – half of which came from agriculture, mainly oil palm plantations. Real GDP growth in the affected provinces may be lower by between 0.7 and 4.7 percentage points in 2015, all else equal. In some instances, schools closed for weeks at a time, obliging teachers to accommodate take-home assignments. Conditions were worst in October, impacting 24,773 schools and 4,692,537 students. As of July 2015, 16 provinces (102 districts) experiencing drought and 5 of 16 major dams already had water deficit. According to a briefing by ACAPS/START network, as of March over 1.2 million people are in need of food assistance in Indonesia as a drought-related food crisis has been affecting most of the country since August 2015. El Niño meant that the rainy season did not start in December as expected: after a short period of average rain in the first days of January, rainfall returned to well below-average in February. As a result, an estimated 3 million people living below the poverty line have been affected by severe drought between October and December 2015, of which 1.2 million are reliant on rain-fed agriculture.viii Record high prices of rice are expected to weigh heavily on food access and place pressure on the food and livelihood security situation of the most vulnerable people.ix The 2015 El Niño episode gave an impetus for a deeper look at the underlying issues and practical actions that need to be

Figure 4 - APCC Multi-model ensemble forecast of below normal, normal, above normal air temperature for Pacific: March-May 2016. Source APEC Climate Center

undertaken to prevent the repeat of the fire in 2016, while addressing the more medium-term issues such as resource conflict and lack of institutional clarity and capacity. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry issued a regulation putting in place moratorium on forest/land use new licenses and new land clearing. President Jokowi made a pledge at the CoP21 in November 2015 to create a special agency to restore peatland, implement One Map to resolve land conflicts, and establish moratorium and license review. The Peat Restoration Agency was established in January 2016, and Presidential regulation to accelerate the Implementation of One Map was issued in February 2016. The Bank Team had engaged in intensive dialogues at different levels, provided strategic briefs to coordinating ministers for Political Security (on fire suppression), and for Economics (on prevention) as well as with the Ministry of Forestry and Environment. A comprehensive Sustainable Landscape Management program has been put forward consisting of three pillars, namely: 1) Land information system/One Map; 2) National Fire Management System, and 3) Sustainable Lowland Management. Discussion is underway for possible Bank financing for this program, with the first two being at the stage of discussion for project preparation. Monitoring by the Meteorological, Geophysical and Climatological Agency (BMKG) on the atmospheric dynamics indicated that El Niño is currently at a Moderate status and is predicted to decline slowly to Neutral in April-May 2016. La Nina is predicted to occur at the end of the year between the months of October to December 2016, with a 50% chance. This period coincides with the start of the normal rainy season so there is 50% likelihood of high rainfall during La Nina period at the end of the year. In early in 2016 drought is predicted in most parts of Indonesia starting in May and June 2016, as indicated by rainfall deficit in as many as 283 (65.8%) of Meteorological Observation Zones. Areas that have entered the dry season since February 2016 includes the East coast of North Sumatra and Riau (Dumai, Bengkalis, Siak, Rokan Hilir and Meranti). These areas do have different weather patterns with the rest of Indonesia, where they have two peaks rainy season every year. Reduced rainfall has occurred since February and is expected to return to normal in April. The area for concern includes: eastern Riau, eastern North Sumatra, and South & Central Sulawesi. x Due to the current El Niño effect, forecasts indicate a maintenance of drier than average conditions until early 2016. The planning and early development stages of the main rice and

maize crops has therefore been affected. In the long term, Indonesia expected to face impacts on national crop production, and high food insecurity incidence on poorer communities in south-eastern islands.xi In water insecure basins of Java, 65 percent of regional GDP is located and 47 percent of rice production (“Indonesia’s rice bowl”) already affected by water scarcity, with significant long-term implications. Problem compounded by watershed degradation. Oil palm production both in Indonesia will also be adversely affected. However, palm oil prices are currently at a 6 year low (due to a drop in Chinese demand) and the expectation or reality of production declines could lead to some compensatory increase in prices for plantations and small farms which do not experience very large yield reductions.xii As water shortages grow, farmers will grapple with erosion, siltation and salinization. Forest fires and smoke haze will be more extensive.xiii According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the harvested areas in January 2016 were only 460,000 hectares, and produced 2.4 million tons of milled rice. While in January 2015, the harvested area reached 560,000 ha with a production of 3 million tons. In the most drought-affected areas in eastern Indonesia, paddy planting was up to 80 percent lower than normal. This will mean late crop harvesting and extended lean season. FAO reported in January 2016 that only 30 per cent of the average number of crops have been planted on time.xiv Lower than usual production levels of rice and maize are expected in early 2016.xv The 2015 El Nino had caused drought in many central areas of rice, especially in October 2015, which led to the production of rice in January 2016 plummeted by 20 %, compared to the same period last year.xvi

Pacific Islands and PNG (EACNF) – March 2016

In the Pacific, El Niño is associated with irregular rainfall, increased tropical cyclone frequency and abnormal sea level conditions. During El Niño years, wet season rainfall tends to decrease in all Pacific Islands Countries (PICs), except for Kiribati and Nauru. In countries covering a wide geographical areas such as Papua New Guinea (PNG), Tuvalu and the Cook Islands, El Niño effects vary. On the whole, PICs are disaster hotspots due to their geographical location (core El Niño zone). As many as 4.7 million people in 13 Pacific countries (2.4 million in PNG and the total populations of the remaining Pacific nations) are at risk of adverse effects of El Niño

including drought, cyclones and increased rainfall, and therefore still face food insecurity, water shortages and possible disease outbreaks. The most vulnerable sectors within these countries are agriculture, freshwater resources, reef ecosystems, fisheries, public health systems and infrastructure. Even a weak El Niño event could put these countries at higher risk than countries of other regions. Remoteness and economic fragility render PICs highly susceptible to external shocks from even mild deviation of climate from its normal condition. Hence potential impacts need to be continuously updated based on intra-seasonal climate/weather forecasts, and risks communicated.xvii As of February 2016, heavy rain associated with more intense cyclone activity over the region has recently brought temporary relief to several El Niño drought-affected Pacific countries. However, after months of drought the rainfall is unlikely to replenish groundwater reserves in preparation for the dry season (May-Oct.). Climate forecasters are predicting below normal rainfall levels for several Pacific Island nations until June 2016 on top of an already unusually dry period. Increased risk of disease due to floods and droughts can precipitate outbreaks of diseases (diarrhea, typhoid) by exposure to contaminated water and decreased hygiene due to water shortages.xviii An increase in the number of cases of diarrhoeal diseases has been recorded in January 2016 in the Solomon Islands.xix In late February 2016, the Marshall Islands became the fourth Pacific country to confirm Zika cases after Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga.xx Zika has been seen in various parts of the Pacific since 2007xxi and WHO advises that all countries and territories in the Pacific are vulnerable to the introduction of Zika virus because the main Aedes mosquito vector is present in most parts of the region.xxii Papua New Guinea has been experiencing a prolonged dry spell and deficient rainfall induced by El Niño were reported in most parts of the country in 2015. The arrival of late-January rains temporarily eased the water supply situation in certain parts of the country. However, severe food and water insecurity persists in various locations including remote Western Province, inland Gulf Province and high-altitude locations. In total, 2.7 million people have been affected by drought and severe frost due to exceptionally cold weather since August 2015. This includes 522,000 people in the most severely affected districts. At the moment, the Government is most concerned about delivering aid to remote locations in Western Province, inland Gulf, and the Highlands.xxiii While the water shortage situation has

recently eased somewhat with rain falling in many parts of the country, a key issue remains around food security/delivery. Drought conditions have complicated the humanitarian situation in countries that are just emerging from the devastation caused by Tropical Cyclones Pam, Maysak and Raquel (2015). More recently, Fiji’s islands was severely hit by Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston, damaging buildings, bringing down trees and power lines and flooding rivers in February 2016.xxiv In Fiji, farmers have spent the past year grappling with the impacts of El Niño and after TC Winston authorities are working hard to prevent a repeat of the food insecurity that was seen in Vanuatu – which is still simultaneously affected by drought and recent post-disaster damage from Cyclone Pam (March 2015). Fiji government estimated in September 2015 that more than 67,000 people were affected by El Niño related drought. Water trucking operations, which were initiated in September 2015, were recently resumed in 2016 to continue covering the increasing needs of people, agriculture and livestock, especially on the outer islands.xxv To kick-start the longer-term agricultural recovery process, the Fiji government has been distributing seeds and seedlings and some farmers are already taking steps to begin their own recovery.xxvi In the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Winston which recently affected Fiji, the World Bank's disaster risk management team is assisting with a post-disaster needs assessment as requested by the Government.xxvii The President of the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) declared a State of Emergency on 2 February 2016, in response to ongoing El Niño related drought which directly affects 23% of its populationxxviii and became the first country in the Pacific to declare a State of Emergency in relation to El Niño. Several parts of the Federated States of Micronesiaxxix also entered in January 2016 a period of moderate to severe drought and lack of rainfall has resulted in critical shortage of drinking water. Drought assessments are currently underway in Yap and Chuuk states where States of Emergency was initially declared by the President on February 18 2016. Similarly, Palau recently became the fourth Pacific island nation to declare a State of Emergency on March 23, 2016, as the region struggles with an extreme drought that forecasters warn will not ease for months. The Solomon Islands cancelled its drought alert after receiving significant recent rain. However, food security concerns remain

after crop failures as a result of cyclones, floods and drought conditions in 2015.xxx Samoa has declared a metrological drought and advised local population to conserve water until further notice.xxxi Similarly, in Tonga, drought has been declared in 2015 after extremely dry weather for nearly a year and further low rainfall is expected for the next 3-6 months. Cyclone season in the Pacific may be very active due to the El Niño effect, a phenomenon which could increase likelihood of severe storms.xxxii Ten to fourteen tropical cyclones expected to occur during the 2015/2016 cyclone season with four to eight expected to reach category 3 and 3 to 7 of these expected to reach category 4 or 5 status.xxxiii With five Category 5 cyclones reported this year in the Pacific Region, the current cyclone season has been one of the most active, in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone.xxxiv Taking this climate scenario into account, elevated tropical cyclone (TC) activity can be expected for many islands in the Southwest Pacific during the 2015–2016 season, with 11 to 13 named TCs forming across the region during the November 2015–April 2016 period. There is an elevated risk of intense cyclones, potentially early start and late finish of the cyclone season, and an elevated likelihood of cyclones particularly in Niue, Samoa, Cook Islands and Tonga. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest activity, with an average of 2 or 3 TCs passing close to land each year and there are indications that activity may be above average this season for many islands, including Vanuatu, Fiji, and Samoa. Cyclone risk is also higher for the Solomon Islands because of the warmer waters near the equator.

Vietnam (EACVF) – March 2016

El Nino has impacted Vietnam since 2014 causing increases in temperature and reduction of rain quantity. Months of below-average rainfall and severe saltwater intrusion have contributed to produce the most severe drought in Vietnam in 90 years. The country is the world's second largest producer of coffee and rice, both high users of water. However, at the moment, Vietnam is suffering its most severe drought in nearly a century with salinization hitting farmers, particularly in the crucial southern Mekong delta, home to more than 20 million people and considered to be the country’s rice basket. Officials said dealing with salinization in the delta is essential given that the area provides more than half of rice for the country, as well as 70 percent of fruit and seafood supply.xxxv In the Mekong

Delta 500,000 ha of rice crops is delayed by dry weather and are at risk of being lost by mid-2016, representing over 30% of the agriculture land in the Mekong Delta.

In the first quarter of 2016, drought, water shortages and salt intrusion continued affecting the Central Highlands, Central Region provinces, and especially the Mekong Delta. According to a recent report from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), 39 out of Vietnam’s 63 provinces have requested primary financial support from the central government to cope with the most severe drought in 90 years. The total request so far amounts to VND 624b (USD 28m). Among them, 10 provinces have declared drought emergencies.xxxvi Overall, 195,217 households lack water for daily consumption (estimated total of 976,000 people); 131,128 households currently have no water supply system; 64,089 households have no access to surface water.xxxvii

The salinity intrusion (4g/l) will continue to stretch further inland in the Central Region and Mekong Delta in the next few months. The increased heat and drought expected from El Niño also threatens large tracts of forestlands with increased fire risk. Water scarcity and an accompanying lowering of the groundwater table will result in declines in agricultural productivity (especially coffee in the Central Highlands) and crop failure across Vietnam. The overall level of rainfall will continue to decrease by 30% to 50% in comparison with seasonal average. The National Hydro-Meteorological Services also forecasted that this El Nino episode in Vietnam could last until May 2016, consequently negatively affecting the start of the autumn crop season (May-August).xxxviii

El Niño also increased the frequency and intensity of tropical storms in previous phases, such as Typhoon Linda in 1997, Xangsane in 2006, and Ketsana in 2009, which caused great damage to central and southern Vietnam. Nine tropical storms are expected to emerge from the East Sea in the next few months, including 3 to 4 storms that will possibly hit the coast of Vietnam. Coastal regions will have the highest level of vulnerability once storms move further to the south, whereas southern areas, such as highland Vietnam, will be affected by heavier rain, landslides and possible flash flood events.xxxix El Niño's effects on fisheries could also be severe. As ocean temperatures rise, fish go deeper or migrate, which may impact Vietnam’s coastal and fishing communities that rely on fishing as livelihoods.

Mongolia (EACCF) – March 2016

As of March 2016, Mongolia is considered to be among the more severely hit countries in the East Asia and Pacific region, particularly through a combination of summer droughts and severe winters (dzud) which causes serious social and economic consequences, mainly loss of livelihoods, for rural communities and possible rural-to-urban migration in the long term. Mongolia has been experiencing very low temperatures and heavy snowfall since November 2015. The situation was exacerbated by last year’s drought, which led to poor vegetation growth, overgrazing, and less hay for livestock. As of March 8, at least 16 of 21 provinces in Mongolia, mainly in the northeast, have been affected by a dzud, with some 400,000 people (80,000 herder families) in the northern and western part of the country are at risk of losing livestock and livelihoods in the coming weeks. The situation is expected to worsen, as the heaviest snowfalls are expected to coincide with the beginning of the spring birthing season. UN expects the numbers of livestock deaths may cross 1.2 million during the spring, when weak and starved animals are expected to die in large numbers. Key humanitarian needs are cash, food, warm clothes, wood, fuel and coal for hearing, while many farmers lack cash, and they are indebted due to loans. There are health, environmental, nutrition, sanitation and social (migration) concerns, particularly for vulnerable population and children. Harsh winter conditions and snowfalls are also limiting access by road to remote areas. Currently, 80 percent of Mongolia is under snow, making it difficult for nomadic families to travel along centuries-old pasture routes to find food for their livestock. Aggravating the situation is the fact that herders can live up to 50 km (31 miles) from urban settlements to buy food, clothes or coal due to impassable roads as well as lack of cash and many are without cars. In addition, farmers concerned about the impact of the dzud have been selling high quantities of meat, leading to an oversupply in the market and insufficient income for farmers to sustain themselves. Oversaturation of livestock and livestock products in the national market has caused price decreases of 40 to 60 percent exacerbating household debt.xl To be more specific, Mongolia experienced a deflation in the category of meats, milk and cheese – for example, in December 2015, prices of beef and mutton were

about 30% below last year’s.xli While this contributed to lowering the national inflation rate, the falling prices of meat also means less income than expected for herders. The dzud’s devastating social and economic consequences, mainly loss of livelihoods, for rural communities become most apparent in March through May. This would lead to them working for a minimum salary herding other people’s animals or moving to extremely poor slums in the outskirts of the capital Ulaanbaatar and search for casual labor.xlii They live in the ‘ger district’, which is a slum area of traditional Mongolian tents known as gers or yurts.xliii The country experienced several extreme climate events in the past decade, including severe winters (dzud)xliv and summer droughts, sometimes both in the same year. Droughts are characterized by precipitation and soil moisture deficits, while dzud features extreme cold, heavy snowfall, and reduced availability of forage and widespread mortality of livestock. Around half of Mongolia's 3.1 million people rely on livestock production.xlv But with oversupply, prices have plunged on animal products such as milk, wool, meat, and camel hair.xlvi When a dzud is preceded by a summer drought, the combination often leads to even higher mortality of livestock due to insufficient feeding and stockpiling of feed and fodder prior to the winter. In the past, the country experienced widespread dzud about once in a decade, but they have recently been occurring every few years. Experts say the rising frequency is due to a combination of climate change and human activity, which has increased the size of herds to levels the grasslands cannot sustain.xlvii The frequency and amplitude of these extreme events increased between 2000 and 2010 compared to previous events and recent studies suggest that the 5-year dzud cycles are El Niño-related. The Government has limited resources and capacities to meet the essential survival needs of herders and has still been undertaking measures such as weather forecasting for herders, issuance of resolutions on strengthening the winter preparation campaign, enhancing hay making and fodder production, destocking weak animals, covering livestock insurance, etc. As of March 2016, the Government plans to allocate USD 5.3 million to support herders and is urgently trying to export meat to Viet Nam, China and Russia as well as up to 10 million live animals to China.xlviii In February 2016, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs filed a ‘dzud appeal’ requesting foreign assistance for the first time since 2010, but the national government has stopped short of declaring a state of emergency, which is required

before some international agencies allocate funding for emergency relief.xlix It estimated that about $4.4 million is required for emergency vehicles, warm clothes, medicine and food to assist herders, in addition to hay, animal feed and vaccinations to keep livestock alive.l As of March 2016, the current winter has not been declared a natural disaster yet and according to NEMA, 70% of the state emergency reserves has already been disbursed as emergency funds.li

Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (EACTF) – March 2016

Vietnam is not the only Southeast country affecting by this severe drought. Neighboring Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar have also been experiencing water shortages and are still facing drought situations as a result of this weather phenomenon. Across the SEA region, rural agriculture and fisheries-dependent households are at risk of higher impact, affecting poor and vulnerable populations, and children due to nutrition impacts. From April to July 2015, rains were below average and erratic in several areas of the region resulting in severe localized soil moisture deficits which are delaying planting operations and adversely affecting yield potential of early-planted cereals, including soybeans and potatoes.lii Drought conditions could intensify in more southern parts of South East Asia, particularly Myanmar and Thailand, during first half of 2016 while northern areas could get more storms and rainfall than usual. The low Asian rice prices may not last as the combination of this summer’s harvest shortfalls, farmers possibly planting less and forecasts for detrimental weather will have future ramifications.liii The US Department of Agriculture forecast in September 2015 that rice output would decline in Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand in 2015-16, contributing a 1% drop in global production, the first since 2009-10.liv

Already in 2015, there were restrictions for farmers in Thailand on how much they can plant because of the drought.lv In January 2016, half of Thailand’s country districts were experiencing droughts, and the government has encouraged digging wells.lvi In October 2015, Thai government approved a budget of Bt21 million for two projects to tackle droughts by assisting farmers in rice production.lvii As of February 2016, Thailand plans steps worth US$285 million to help drought-hit rice farmers through soft loans for farmers who store paddy.lviii Manufacturing companies have been urged to cut their water

consumption between March and June 2016 to reduce drought impacts.lix Dam and reservoir levels are only at 50% capacity in some parts of Thailand already in 2015. As of February 2016 in Thailand, 12 provinces declared drought-stricken zones and another 28 provinces in the North and Northeast currently face water shortages.lx The Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister indicated in February 2016 that there should be sufficient water in the four major dams combined general consumption until July but the challenge resides more on providing water to drought-stricken zones. Since 2016, authorities in Thailand are rushing to drill thousands of wells across the country and sent out water trucks to ensure enough water for drinking and washing, as farmers grapple with a drought and a months-long water shortage. Thailand's prime minister advised farmers in February 2016 to cultivate less rice to help the country manage its intensifying water crisis, as experts called this year's drought the worst in decades. Thailand is one of the world's top rice exporters, but 4 consecutive years of below-average rainfall have drained water reserves and left irrigation channels in the heart of the country dry.lxi The government of Thailand will divert a 3.5 billion baht ($96 million) budget from the Department of Groundwater Resources - originally set aside to dig 6,000 wells at temples, schools and farms - for the urgent construction of 4,300 wells.lxii In June 2015, Cambodia was hit by an El-Nino induced drought. Similar to Laos, farmers in Cambodia were obliged left some fields/rice paddies unplanted due to a severe lack of rainfall and excessive heat in 2015.lxiii In Cambodia, areas of concern are considered around the center of the country and the North West, especially with ongoing dry conditions which will continue to persist in 2016. While climatic conditions are expected to improve, the situation remains preoccupying in terms of water availability by mid-2016lxiv as Cambodia will have to deal with consequences of droughts. Given that Cambodia usually produces twice the amount of rice needed to feed its population, the government’s strategy remains oriented towards exportations. Direct rice exports between January and August 2015 have reached about 342 136 tons, nearly 50 percent up compared to the same period in the previous year. FAO forecasts total rice exports in 2015 at 1.2 million tons, 6 percent above last year’s level, which could mean less food stocks remaining in the country in case of an extended food crisis.lxv Acknowledging the difficulties faced by the rural, agriculture-dependent population, the government of Cambodia has mainly issued warnings and advises on water

conservation. Provincial authorities were devising plans to help pump water into farmers’ fields in order to save their seasonal harvest. However, no national-scale scheme (for instance, planning to dig more reservoirs, or supporting irrigations systems) seemed to have been set up so far.lxvi In Myanmar, torrential monsoon rains from a cyclone in August 2015 triggered severe floods, flash floods, and landslides, displacing more than 1.6 million people. The country has been and will remain sensitive to the El Niño phenomenon (particularly as hot and dry conditions remain up to May 2016), even if to a relatively less extent than some of the other countries in the region.lxvii In November 2015, Myanmar entered dry season, and drier than average conditions remain the most likely threat to the country.lxviii Since 2016, the governmentlxix is storing rice in preparation for El Ninolxx; responding to localized water shortages across numerous States and Regions (which were affected earlier by floods)lxxi; and assisting farmers with crops.lxxii The July-September 2015 floods in Myanmar have seriously affected rice production during the growing phase of the main rice season (which accounts for the bulk of annual production), which is now under strain due to high temperatures, particularly rice fields in Magwe, Pegu, and Irrawaddy State/Regions. In addition, Myanmar’s Department of Rural Development has made it known the El Nino weather phenomenon could also cause drinking water shortages to over 250,000 citizens of 446 villages throughout the Ayeyarwaddy Region.lxxiii Shan State suffered water shortages in February 2016 with some 300 households depended on donor-donated water supplies.lxxiv In addition, El Niño's effects on fisheries can be severe. As ocean temperatures rise, fish go deeper or migrate, leaving fishing communities without livelihoods. In Myanmar, fisheries sector, which is still recovering from last year’s floods, account up to 8 to 10 percent of GDP and are a major source of employment. In June 2015, a report was prepared by the government of Laos on the impacts of El Niño and further actions, such as ensuring sufficient water supply from the irrigation system, and provision of emergency assistance to affected households in cash and rice seeds/goods where needed.lxxv Updated forecasts from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology have been prepared but only limited information is publicly available.

Philippines (EACPF) – March 2016

Island nations like the Philippines have historically been very sensitive to greater impacts from El Niños than neighboring land masses, due to the more direct influence of coastal warming.lxxvi El Niño in the Philippines is characterized by delayed onset and early termination of the rainy season, weak monsoon activity and fewer but stronger tropical cyclones making landfall. A strong El Niño prevailed in the Philippines in the fourth quarter of 2015 and was initially expected to continue throughout February 2016. More recently, the PAGASA outlook for March 2016 indicates that only 19 provinces (mostly in Mindanao) will likely experience droughtlxxvii while another 13 provinces may experience a dry spell. This outlook confirmed that the El Niño-induced drought is not as widespread as feared – an observation that was confirmed by PAGASA in early March.lxxviii The recent outlook is more optimistic than the original forecast, which initially indicated that up to 85 percent of the country (70 provinces), would experience drought at the height of the dry season in April 2016. Instead, PAGASA’s latest forecast indicates drought affecting 30 provinces by April 2016. The number of affected provinces is expected to decrease to 23 by May 2016. By June 2016, three provinces are seen to remain under drought conditions. Latest forecasts in the Philippines indicate that the current El Niño episode is expected to be weaker compared to the El Nino in 1997, known as the worst occurrence in the 20th century. However, it might still have significant effects given the current size of population and its exposure to extreme weather. The current episode of El Niño has taken its toll on the country’s agriculture sector, albeit not as pronounced as the 1997-98 episode. In H1 2015, the country’s agriculture sector grew by only 0.3 percent, with bleak outlook for the rest of 2015 as the government initially expected 70 out of the country’s 81 provinces to be affected by drought by the end of 2015. While the worst of one of the strongest dry spells on record is over, its impact will still be felt for many months to come, according to WMO.lxxix Forecast models show that vulnerable regions of the country will still be affected from dry spells and/or drought in the coming months, including food-insecure provinces of Mindanao. Small-scale highland farmers in Mindanao are found particularly exposed to the drying effects of El Niño due to limited water resources and limited livelihood alternatives and

reported the most number of affected farmers (16,347) and incurred losses of P214.6 M ($4.6 M).

In addition, in February 2016, the DA estimated that severe damage caused by El Niño to farms, fisheries and forests may directly affected more than 12 million Filipinos relying on agriculture as a primary source of livelihood.lxxx Given that 55 percent of the population of 98 million live in rural areas, the effects of the El Niño are therefore mostly felt by small-scale farmers and those who are fishery-dependent. About 102,000 farmers with 194,000 hectares of agricultural land have been affected by the drying effects of El Niño and may need support to recommence their farming activities in the next cropping season (including one third of which have no chance of recovery). Total production loss and total damage attributed to El Niño rose to $85 million according to the DA – which includes 304 104 metric tons of crops such as rice, corn and high value banana and rubber.lxxxi Dry farmlands, stunted growth of livestock, fishes dispersing and moving to deeper and cooler waters are some of the effects that are already noticeable and likely to persist until mid- 2016. As temperatures are forecasted to be 2 percent higher than normal, damage could reach $700 million to $800 if the phenomenon lasts more than three months (up until April 2016), which experts agree is the most likely scenario.lxxxii

For early 2016, the effects of El Niño on farm output may also pose an upside risk to inflation and poverty as the current bout of El Niño intensified in the last quarter of 2015 and persisted until early 2016. Indicative simulation shows that if food inflation increased to 8.3 percent (similar to 1998), then poverty incidence could increase by around 0.8 points in 2016 compared to 2014.lxxxiii Early preparations were however put in place to avoid price spikes. The Government has also allotted $375 million to implement mitigation-and-response strategies addressing food security, energy security, and health in the affected communities.. In September 2015, the government bid out contracts to import 750,000 metric tons of rice to serve as buffer stock in case El Niño intensified and adversely impacted domestic rice production. Furthermore, the DA has requested a supplemental budget of PHP 1.9 billion ($41M), while NEDA has created a RAIN task force to mitigate El Niño’s negative effects. GoP has indicated that it will continue to monitor the supply of rice and stands ready to import rice to keep prices stable.

Despite the negative impact on output, food inflation is still low, in large part due to adequate and timely importation of rice, which has dampened the effects of lower farm output on prices. However, fears over the consequences of water shortage on food availability and goods production transpired in the media. Most certainly a food prices increase would have heavy consequences on household incomes as food represents the most heavily weighted component in the Philippines' consumer price index (at 39 percent). The intensifying El Niño may also trigger erratic behavior of tropical cyclones, delaying typhoon season, and increase their frequency (and intensity) while influencing their track to shift northward.lxxxiv Until now, under the El Niño, the country had fewer tropical cyclones, which delayed the onset of the rainy season and below normal rainfall in most part of the country.lxxxv

Whom to contact?

GSURR Practice Manager (EAP Urban DRM) Abhas K. Jha: ajha@worldbank.org

GSURR Disaster Risk Management Regional Focal Point Jolanta Kryspin-Watson: jkryspin@worldbank.org

GFDRR Manager Francis Ghesquiere: fghesquire@worldbank.org GFDRR Hydro-met Team Leader Vladimir Tsirkunov: vtsirkunov@worldbank.org GFADR Practice Manager (EAP) Nathan Belete: nbelete@worldbank.org GFADR Lead Rural Development Specialist (EAP) Steve Jaffee: sjaffee@worldbank.org GENDR Practice Manager (EAP) Iain G. Shuker: ishuker@worldbank.org GENDR Sector Leader (EAP) Christophe Crepin: ccrepin@worldbank.org

References

WHAT is EL NIÑO? 1 IRICS: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-

essentials/ 2 NOAA portal: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS 3 WMO: World Meteorological Organization, last update (Sept 2015)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html 4 NOAA “there is approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue

through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016, gradually weakening

through spring 2016”, blogs https://www.climate.gov/news-

features/blogs/enso/september-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-and-qa 5 Presentations:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ens

o_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

EXPECTED IMPACTS 6 DFID, 2015, Impact Analysis of Past El Niños,

http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/EoD/EOD_Consultancy_September15_

El_Nino.pdf 7 World Bank, 2015, “We must prepare now for another major El Niño”

http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/we-must-prepare-now-

another-major-el-nino 8 Oxford Analytica, 2015, El Niño Threat will cloud ASEAN Econ. Outlook

https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796 9 OCHA, 2015, El Niño Information Portal

http://www.unocha.org/el-nino 10 ADB, Asian Development Bank, 2015, El Niño in Asia Blog

i http://www.apcc21.org/ser/enso.do?lang=en ii http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ iii http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf iv http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Advisory%20Note%20Dec%202015%20Final.pdf v http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/el-niño-expected-to-produce-severe-tropical-storms-in-the-southwest-pacific vi http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/intensity.shtml vii https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796 viii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/1_FAOElNinoReport_March2016.pdf ix http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/El%20Nino%20Monthly%20Overview%209%20March.pdf xhttp://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Sestama/Humas/MEI_JUNI_SEBAGIAN_BESAR_WILAYAH_INDONESIA_MASUK_AWAL_MUSIM_KEMARAU.bmkg xi http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp277846.pdf xii Lead Rural Economist for EAP – Agriculture GP xiii https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796/El-Nino-threat-will-cloud-ASEAN-economic-outlook

https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796 IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE 11 WFP, 2015: World Food Program, Seasonal Monitor

https://www.wfp.org/content/seasonal-monitor 12 FAO, 2015: Food and Agriculture Organization - Global Information and

Early Warning Systems - El Niño references http://www.fao.org/giews/english/otherpub/elnino.htm 13 FAO, 2015: Food and Agriculture Organization – “Understanding the

drought impact of El Niño” http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4251e.pdf 14 FAO - AMIS, 2015: Food and Agriculture Organization – Agricultural

Market Information System - El Niño Update: http://www.amis-

outlook.org/news/detail/en/c/345679/ 15 World Bank’s Response in 1997-1998

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/18298/m

ulti0page.pdf?sequence=1 IMPACTS on Health 16 WHO, World Health Organization, 2015, http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/factsheets/el-nino-and-health/en/

xiv http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ElNino_infographic_070116.pdf xv http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/1_FAOElNinoReport_March2016.pdf xvi http://finance.detik.com/read/2016/02/15/175011/3142562/1036/dampak-el-nino-panen-padi-di-januari-2016-anjlok-20 xvii http://www.rimes.int/em/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/El-Nino-2014-Potential-Impacts-in-Pacific-Island-Countries.pdf xviii http://www.wpro.who.int/southpacific/mediacentre/releases/2015/el_nino_health_pacific/en/ xix http://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ni-o-overview-impact-projected-humanitarian-needs-and-response-9-march-2016 xx http://reliefweb.int/report/marshall-islands/first-case-zika-virus-confirmed-marshall-islands xxi http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/page%205.pdf xxii http://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ni-o-and-health-global-overview-january-2016 xxiii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/160129_El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20Overview_FINAL.pdf xxiv At its peak, the cyclone had sustained winds of about 230km/h, gusting to over 300 km/h and making it one of the most severe cyclones ever to hit the South Pacific. As of 1 March, the Fiji National Disaster Management Office said 43 people had died and 53,635 were sheltering in evacuation

centers. On some of the remote islands, entire villages have been flattened by the storm’s impact. Source: http://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ni-o-overview-impact-projected-humanitarian-needs-and-response-9-march-2016 xxv http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/160129_El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20Overview_FINAL.pdf xxvi http://reliefweb.int/report/fiji/pacific-resilience-face-disaster xxvii http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/02/21/world-bank-ready-to-support-fijian-government-following-tropical-cyclone-winston xxviii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/WFP%20El%20Nino%202015-2016%20SitRep%203.pdf xxix http://reliefweb.int/report/micronesia-federated-states/presidential-emergency-declaration xxx http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/160129_El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20Overview_FINAL.pdf xxxi http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/1_FAOElNinoReport_March2016.pdf xxxii http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/south-pacific/tc.shtml#tabs=Summary xxxiiihttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Pacific_El%20nino%20infographic_20151204%20%281%29.pdf xxxivhttps://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/system/files/documents/files/el_nino_infographic_20150609.pdf xxxv http://www.thanhniennews.com/society/vietnams-southern-delta-braces-for-worst-drought-in-century-59352.html xxxvi The 10 provinces that declared a state of emergency are: Bình Thuận, Bến Tre, Vĩnh Long, Sóc Trăng, Cà Mau, Trà Vinh, Tiền Giang, Long An, Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu and Gia Lai. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Vietnam%20Consolidated%20Report%20on%20Drought%202015-2016-Final_11%20Mar%202016.pdf xxxvii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Vietnam%20Consolidated%20Report%20on%20Drought%202015-2016-Final_11%20Mar%202016.pdf xxxviii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Vietnam%20Consolidated%20Report%20on%20Drought%202015-2016-Final_11%20Mar%202016.pdf xxxix https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796/El-Nino-threat-will-cloud-ASEAN-economic-outlook xl http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/emergencies/docs/FAOEl%20NinoReportMarch2016.pdf xli http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=MNG xlii http://news.trust.org/item/20160226231027-ymgie/ xliii Start Network, ACAPS. Briefing Note Mongolia Extreme Winder Conditions. 8 March 2016.

xliv The dzud is a phenomenon that occurs cyclically in Mongolia. It is characterized by a summer drought, which results in low hay production, followed by harsh winter conditions: storms accompanied by strong winds, up to 350cm snowfalls, and colder than average temperatures (lower than -40°C at night). Consequently livestock are unable to access enough food. A dzud causes an extremely high toll of livestock deaths and the collapse of livelihoods in herder communities. Source: Start Network, ACAPS. Briefing Note Mongolia Extreme Winder Conditions. 8 March 2016. xlv Each sheep or goat – the most common livestock – is worth around $30. A cow is worth between $250 and $500, depending on meat quality. A camel is worth about $500, and a horse about $200 to $250, according to estimates by the Asian Development Bank. Source - http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/03/07/mongolian-livestock-succumb-en-masse-freezing-dzud?utm_source=IRIN+-+the+inside+story+on+emergencies&utm_campaign=6e137557a6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_ENGLISH_ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d842d98289-6e137557a6-15757289 xlvi http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/03/07/mongolian-livestock-succumb-en-masse-freezing-dzud?utm_source=IRIN+-+the+inside+story+on+emergencies&utm_campaign=6e137557a6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_ENGLISH_ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d842d98289-6e137557a6-15757289 xlvii http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/03/07/mongolian-livestock-succumb-en-masse-freezing-dzud?utm_source=IRIN+-+the+inside+story+on+emergencies&utm_campaign=6e137557a6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_ENGLISH_ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d842d98289-6e137557a6-15757289 xlviii http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/emergencies/docs/FAOEl%20NinoReportMarch2016.pdf xlix http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/03/07/mongolian-livestock-succumb-en-masse-freezing-dzud?utm_source=IRIN+-+the+inside+story+on+emergencies&utm_campaign=6e137557a6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_ENGLISH_ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d842d98289-6e137557a6-15757289 l http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/03/07/mongolian-livestock-succumb-en-masse-freezing-dzud?utm_source=IRIN+-+the+inside+story+on+emergencies&utm_campaign=6e137557a6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_ENGLISH_ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d842d98289-6e137557a6-15757289 li http://www.un-mongolia.mn/new/?p=2166 lii http://www.fao.org/giews/english/shortnews/asia29072015.htm liii http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/27/el-nino-takes-toll-us-rice-farmers liv https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796/El-Nino-threat-will-cloud-ASEAN-economic-outlook lv http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/27/el-nino-takes-toll-us-rice-farmers lvi http://www.bangkokpost.com/archive/drought-hits-half-of-country-but-rice-bowl-seen-surviving/822908 lvii http://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/46002 lviii http://news.trust.org/item/20160226074304-0cgp1/?source=fiOtherNews2 lix http://www.bangkoknews.net/index.php/sid/241811519

lx http://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/moac-take-measures-prevent-water-shortages-28-provinces lxi http://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/pm-tells-drought-stricken-thailand-cut-rice-production lxii http://news.trust.org/item/20160119122050-f4ks3/?source=fiDontmiss lxiii http://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/southeast-asia-drought-forces-farmers-to-leave-fields-unplanted-07092015170601.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter lxiv http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/acfin_el_nino_in_asia_2015.12.pdf lxv http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/acfin_el_nino_in_asia_2015.12.pdf lxvi http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/acfin_el_nino_in_asia_2015.12.pdf lxvii http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/18385-el-nino-expected-to-hit-central-myanmar-hard.html, http://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/myanmar-encounter-impacts-strongest-el-ni-o-history lxviii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/acfin_el_nino_in_asia_2015.12.pdf lxix http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-02/27/c_135136388.htm lxx https://issuu.com/myanmarnewspaper/docs/17_feb_16_gnlm lxxi https://globalvoices.org/2016/02/25/how-myanmar-residents-are-coping-up-with-rising-temperatures-caused-by-el-nino/ lxxii http://www.moi.gov.mm/moi:eng/?q=news/7/03/2016/id-6611 lxxiii http://www.moi.gov.mm/moi:eng/?q=news/14/03/2016/id-6670 lxxiv http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs21/GNLM2016-02-03-red.pdf

lxxv Source: World Bank DRM Focal Point in Laos. lxxvi https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB205796 lxxvii PAGASA defines drought as three consecutive months of “way below normal” rainfall or about 60 percent reduction from average rainfall. lxxviii http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/773352/pagasa-drought-not-as-widespread lxxix http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/02/21/1555312/el-nino-begins-decline lxxx http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ElNino_infographic_070116.pdf lxxxi http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/El%20Nino%20Monthly%20Overview%209%20March.pdf lxxxii http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/acfin_el_nino_in_asia_2015.12.pdf lxxxiii The 2014 APIS was used to run the simulation. To compute for poverty incidence in 2016, the following steps were taken: i. compute 2016 projected per capita income by using 2014 per capita income as base and income growth from 2012 to 2013 of 3.5 percent compounded for the bottom 50 percent (income growth from 2013 to 2014 is not used given the presence of exogenous shocks); ii. compute projected 2016 poverty threshold by adjusting the 2014 poverty threshold under the assumption of two percent overall inflation in 2015, 8.3 percent food inflation in 2016, and three percent non-food inflation in 2016; and iii. Count the number of poor households whose income falls below the poverty threshold in 2016. lxxxiv http://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-el-ni-o-snapshot-05-october-2015 lxxxvhttp://reliefweb.int/report/world/asia-pacific-region-el-ni-o-snapshot-october-2015