global methane emissions washington d.c., 29 march 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Methane Emissions Washington D.C., 29 March 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
Key questions
What is the global outlook for natural gas and methane emissions?
What is the role of methane emissions in the climate change debate?
What is the IEA planning on doing on methane emissions from oil and gas?
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Plain sailing for natural gas?
World natural gas demand by scenario
Global gas demand grows in all scenarios; in the New Policies Scenario demand of 5.2 tcm in 2040 brings gas towards parity with coal & oil in the global energy mix
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
bcm
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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Gas retains a global foothold in a stronger climate policy scenario
Global fossil-fuel demand by scenario
Where it replaces more carbon-intensive fuels or aids the integration of renewables, natural gas can be a good fit for a gradually decarbonising energy system
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mto
e
Oil
Coal Gas
New Policies Scenario (NPS)
Oil
Coal
Gas 450 Scenario (450S)
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0 20 40 60 80 100
US EPA, 2012
IEA, 2015
IPCC, 1997-2006
mln tons methane
What are the trends in methane emissions from oil and gas operations?
Global emission estimates vary widely – due to lack of data and
inconsistent measurement methods
Global methane emissions from oil and gas industry
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013m
ln t
on
s C
H4
/bln
bo
e
gas
oil
US data suggests an overall declining trend in methane emission factors
over the last 20 years.
US methane emissions trend for oil and gas industry
Source: US EPA and EIA 2015
?
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Methane emissions: a credibility issue for natural gas?
Global methane emissions from the oil & gas sector by region in NPS
Fugitive methane emissions from the global oil & gas sector remain high, despite advances & pledges by some countries to reduce emissions
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013 2020 2030 2040
Mt
CH
4
European Union
Africa
United States
China
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
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The coverage of CP21 climate pledges is impressive…
Pledges submitted
Not submitted pledges
North America
6.1 Gt
South America
1.2 Gt
OECD Asia Oceania
2.2 Gt
Russia and Caspian
2.0 Gt
Europe
3.8 Gt
Africa
1.1 Gt
Middle East
2.0 Gt
1.7 Gt
Other Asia India
1.9 Gt
China
8.6 Gt
Pledges from countries that account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
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…but what about methane emissions ?
The INDCs of four countries specifically mention methane emission:
USA: achieve a 40-45% reduction in methane emissions from 2012 levels by 2025 from oil and gas production
Canada, Mexico and Gabon: reduce methane emissions from oil and gas production
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COP21 Bridge Scenario: peak in GHG emissions in next 5 years
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020 2025 2030
450
Scenario
Bridge
Scenario
INDC
Scenario
Gt
CO
2-e
q
Energy efficiency
49%
Reducing inefficient coal
Renewables investment
Upstream methane reductions
Fossil-fuel subsidy reform
17%
15%
10%
Bridge Scenario Savings by measure, 2030
9%
Global energy-related GHG emissions
IEA proposed five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
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Reducing Upstream Methane Emissions
Reductions are achievable with existing technologies but implementation will take time
Global oil and gas upstream methane emissions and required reductions
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What is the IEA planning to do next?
Global modeling of methane emissions has a high degree of uncertainty. Just like most organizations, the IEA relies on measurements and data collected by others.
In absence of new and more comprehensive data, focus will shift towards outlining best practices for policy recommendations.
The IEA seeks inputs from energy sector stakeholders in exploring the topic further.
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Summary
Addressing climate change is imperative and reducing methane emissions is one of the key measures that can help secure a peak in global GHG emissions by 2020 and thus provide a reasonable chance of limiting global warming by 2degC.
Technologies for reducing methane emissions are available but action is required now to achieve a peak in emissions.
Challenges ahead:
The global and regional extent of methane emissions is still poorly understood.
How can we tackle the more difficult and costly emission sources?
Availability of cheap but reliable constant monitoring solutions?
What remote sensing technologies can be used globally to identify major sources and track progress?
The discussion and actions are progressing, albeit at a slow pace.
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ECD
/IEA
201
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