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Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership

Shruti Jain – Senior Analyst

Cisco Knowledge Network / June 2015

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Complete IP Traffic & Service Adoption Forecasts Global Update, 2014–2019

Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst

Usha Andra – Senior Analyst Taru Khurana – Senior Analyst

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

VNI

Service Adoption Forecast

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS

Global IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers

More Devices & Connections

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More Video Viewing

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

By 2019:

2014 2019 14.2 Billion 24.4 Billion

2014 2019 20.3 Mbps 42.5 Mbps

2014 2019 2.8 Billion 3.9 Billion

2014 2019 67% of Traffic

80% of Traffic

IP Broadband Growth Drivers

Overview

2.0 zettabytes is equal to:

• 12X more than all IP traffic generated in 2009 (169 exabytes)

• 30 hours of ultra-HD video per person of the world population

By 2019, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 2.0 zettabytes per year

• One trillion gigabytes

• Approximately 1021 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

What is a zettabyte?


Establishing the Zettabyte Era

34.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2009-2014 CAGR

Projected in 2010Actual

35.6%


VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

Compound Annual

Growth Rate (CAGR)

Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3-Fold from 2014─2019

23% CAGR 2014–2019

59.9 72.4

88.4 109.0

135.5

168.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exabytes per Month


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (44% CAGR)Latin America (LATAM) (25% CAGR)Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (33% CAGR)Western Europe (WE) (21% CAGR)North America (NA) (20% CAGR)Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (44%) from 2014–2019 APAC will Generate 32% of all IP Traffic by 2019

29.6%

32.4%

10.0%

5.6%

14.7%

Exabytes per Month

7.7%


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Drivers

Global Internet Users From 2.8 Billion in 2014 to 3.9 Billion by 2019 at 6.9% CAGR

North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe

Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific

319 Million by 2019 CAGR 1.0%





2.1 Billion by 2019 CAGR 8.7%


Global Device and Connections From 14.2 Billion in 2014 to 24.4 Billion by 2019 at 12% CAGR



4.3 Billion by 2019 CAGR 14%







Global Fixed Broadband Speed Growth Average Broadband Speed Will More Than Double from 20.3 Mbps (2014) to 42.5 Mbps (2019)



2.0-fold Growth 21.8 to 43.7 Mbps







Global IP Traffic – Increasing Video Viewing By 2019, Video Will Drive 80% of IP Traffic, Up from 67% in 2014



84% of traffic by 2019 22% CAGR







Top Trends

VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends

1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix

2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity

3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business

5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth

6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening?

7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth

8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum

9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)

10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps

M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth

Global Device/Connection Growth by Type By 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 40% of Total Connections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (4.9%,3.6%)

Tablets (3%,4%)

PCs (11%,6%)

TVs (11%,12%)

Non-Smartphones (32%,13%)

Smartphones (15%,19%)

M2M (24%,43%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

12% CAGR 2014–2019

Global Video Capable Device Growth by Type By 2019, Smartphones More Than 40% of Total Video Capable Devices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (0.8%,0.3%)

Tablets (7%,8%)

M2M (3%,9%)

PCs (26%,14%)

TVs (26%,27%)



14% CAGR 2014–2019

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

Billions of Devices

SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

10 33

77

146

245

371

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Connected 4K TV Sets

(M)


Increasing Video Definition By 2019, More than 31% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K

Global Average IP Traffic Per Device 2014 2019

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

MBs per Month MBs per Month

1,640 8,419

6,213 14,800

6,258 34,880

23,824 36,311

22,415 50,177

M2M Module

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

Smartphone

Tablet

Laptop / PC

92 433

Ultra High Definition TV*

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 *Note: Includes IP VoD traffic

Device IP Traffic Comparison 2014 Device IP Traffic Generation Comparisons


Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

M2M Module

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

Smartphone

Tablet

Laptop / PC

Ultra High Definition TV*

Monthly basic mobile phone

data traffic

1077 X =

283 X =

281 X =

74 X =

4 X =

1013 X =

Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 67% of Global IP Traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (1%,3%)

Tablets (4%,19%)

TVs (29%,22%)


PCs (60%,33%)


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month


Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 64% of Global Internet Traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (1%,3%)

TVs (7%,8%)

Tablets (6%,24%)


PCs (78%,36%)


26% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes per Month




3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business








0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

IPv6 Capable Mobile Devices

IPv6 Capable Fixed Devices

2.0B

3.7B

1.0B

Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2019, 41% of Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable

6.2B

Number of Devices

(B)


26% CAGR 2014–2019

05

101520253035404550

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (106% CAGR)

Latin America (LATAM) (75% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (99% CAGR)

Western Europe (WE) (66% CAGR)

North America (NA) (79% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (APAC) (74% CAGR)

Global IPv6 Traffic Growth / Regions By 2019, IPv6 Will Represent 34% of Total Internet Traffic

22.4%

33.7%

11.6%

6.5%

17.9% Exabytes per Month

7.9%

2.6

46


77% CAGR 2014–2019

Global IPv6 Enabled Content

US 46%

Australia 49% Brazil 57%

UK 46%

Spain 49%

Today Projected in 2019

25%

6.6%

Source: Cisco IPv6 Labs

Global IPv6 Deployment

Source: World IPv6 Launch




3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business








Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2019, 1.5 M2M Connections Per Capita Globally

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Middle East & Africa (26.2% CAGR)

Latin America (21.5% CAGR)

Central & Eastern Europe (28.2% CAGR)

Western Europe (25.8% CAGR)

North America (28.6% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (24.4% CAGR)


26% CAGR 2014–2019

Billions of M2M

Connections

Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 15-Fold from 2014 to 2019

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Middle East & Africa (94.4% CAGR)

Latin America (85.8% CAGR)

Central & Eastern Europe (86.4% CAGR)

Western Europe (76.3% CAGR)

North America (82.2% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (61.2% CAGR)


71% CAGR 2014–2019

Petabytes per Month


By 2019, M2M modules will be 43% of total global devices and connections and will account for 3% (4.6 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.

Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Vertical By 2019, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other* (38.2% CAGR)Energy (31.9% CAGR)Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR)Retail (10.5% CAGR)Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR)Connected Health (49.4% CAGR)Connected Car (37.3% CAGR)Utilities (21% CAGR)Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR)Connected Home (23.1% CAGR)


26% CAGR 2014–2019

Billions of M2M

Connections

*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services

• Agriculture – livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks +

• Construction: Site and equipment monitoring

• Emergency services and national security

• New energy sources – monitoring and power generation support apps

• Smart grid and distribution

• Micro-generation– generation of power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property

• Mining and extraction • Manufacturing and

processing • Supply chain • Warehousing and

storage

• Retail goods monitoring and payment

• Retail venue access and control

• Slot machines, vending machines

• Environment and public safety – closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information +

• Public space advertising • Public transport • Road traffic

management

• Health monitors • Assisted living –

medicine dispensers + • Clinical trials • First responder

connectivity • Telemedicine

• Fleet management • In-vehicle entertainment

systems, emergency calling, Internet

• Vehicle diagnostics, navigation

• Stolen vehicle recovery • Lease, rental, insurance

management

• Electric vehicle charging • Smart metering

• Office building automation

• Building security • Office equipment –

printers + • Routers + • Commercial appliances

• Home automation • Building security • Network equipment –

printers + • Network infrastructure –

routers + • White goods • Tracking applications • Household information

devices

Connected Car Connected Work Connected Home Connected Health Utilities

Other Energy Retail Connected Cities

Manufacturing & Supply Chain

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.idownloadblog.com/2012/11/23/tales-of-a-connected-home-how-ios-is-changing-modern-living/&ei=gBdaVYiPBNKVyATx54HoAQ&bvm=bv.93564037,d.cGU&psig=AFQjCNHO4tqye67FDUN7SspFtL4pHJDf6Q&ust=1432046682090297

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://inhabitat.com/energy-101-what-is-a-smart-grid/&ei=fBpaVcf-NMSMyASxtYCYAw&bvm=bv.93564037,d.cGU&psig=AFQjCNGOR_SMvt6JefgYLtQ_bR6phhy00Q&ust=1432054743780803

Internet of Everything Increasing Home Connectivity

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Note: Globally, there will be 2.2 billion households by 2019

On average, there will be more

than two connected home modules per global

household by 2019

2019 5.0 Billion Connected

Home Modules

2014 1.8 Billion Connected

Home Modules

HVAC and Lighting Systems

Home Security Fire Alarm

Smart Appliances

Child, Pet and Personal Items

Tracking

Printers, Scanners,

Home Routers

Distributed Screens




3









Global Residential Market, by 2019:

62% (2.4 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 79% (1.4 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 9.4 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 4.9 billion in 2014). Average household will have 4.3 fixed devices and connections (up from 2.4 in 2014).


Note: By 2019, the global residential fixed Internet population will be 2.4 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion

Global Residential Services By 2019, Time Delayed TV Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption

CAGR 2014–2019

Online Music

Social Networking

Online Video Online Gaming

VoIP

Digital TV Video on Demand

Time Delayed TV

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2019 % Adoption

Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019

Residential Services Implications / Opportunities

Residential Market Dynamics Residential Opportunities for Service Providers

• More / new connections

• Preference for mobility

• Need to monetize increased network demand

• Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections

• Partner and form new eco-systems with OTTPs

• Develop Wi-Fi / mobility plans

• Bolster service portfolio with value-added IoE / M2M applications


Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2019: There will be 4.9 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 9.8 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 2.0 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2014).

Note: By 2019, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.9 billion.

Global Consumer Mobile Services By 2019, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Banking & Commerce Will Have Highest Adoption

CAGR 2014–2019


MMS

Mobile Social Networking Mobile Email

Consumer LBS

Mobile Gaming

Mobile Banking & Commerce

Mobile Video

Mobile Music

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%2019 % Adoption

Consumer Mobile Implications / Opportunities

Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics

Consumer Mobile Opportunities for Service Providers

• More / new devices and connections

• Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile

• Demand for Wi-Fi offload and faster speeds

• Need to monetize increased network demand

• Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services

• Shared data plans

• Blend service offers with online services / content

• Developing / monetizing Wi-Fi offers

• Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands)


Global Business Market, by 2019: There will be 2.2 billion business Internet users (63% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 5.3 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.8 billion in 2014). Average business internet user will have 2.4 devices and connections There will be 1.7 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 943 million in 2014). Average business mobile user will have 2.9 mobile devices and connections

Note: By 2019, the global business Internet population will be 2.2 billion; the number of business users will be 582 million.

Global Business Services By 2019, Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have Highest Adoption

CAGR 2014–2019


SMS

Mobile Email Room Based Video

Conferencing

IP Telephony

Business LBS

Audio Conferencing

Desktop Video Conferencing

Web Conferencing w/o Video

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2019 % Adoption

Business Market Dynamics Business Segment Opportunities for Service Providers

• More / new devices and connections—growing demand for BYOD

• Low penetration of mobile devices

• Growing demand for service transition from fixed to mobile

• Premium security

• Enhance productivity, customer support

• Cloud services and storage— network, computing, infrastructure

• Offer vertical specific IoE / M2M services

• Blending and bundling with other services

Business Services Implications / Opportunities




3









0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Gaming (0.05% , 0.08% )File Sharing (11.6% , 4.3% )Web/Data (21.3% , 15.5% )IP VoD (23.6% , 16.0% )Internet Video (43.4% , 64.1% )

Global IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 80% of Global IP Traffic by 2019


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares

Global Video Users/ Subscribers Online & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR)

Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR)

Users/ Subscriptions

(M)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Gaming (0.07% , 0.10% )

File Sharing (16.3% , 5.3% )

Web/Data (24.7% , 17.5% )

Internet Video (58.9% , 77.1% )

Global Internet Video Traffic Growth Internet Video Will Account for 77 Percent of Global Internet Traffic by 2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares

Exabytes per Month

26% CAGR 2014–2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Console Game Downloads (1.5% ,4.6% )

Global Internet Gaming Traffic Growth Game Downloads To Account for Nearly 5% Percent of Fixed Consumer Internet by 2019; Currently 2% of Average and 10% of Peak Traffic


Exabytes per Month

24% CAGR 2014–2019


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.6% , 13.9% )

High Def (HD) Video (38.6% , 53.5% )

Standard Def (SD) Video (60.8% , 32.6% )

Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 14% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2019


27% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.2% , 21.0% )High Def (HD) Video (55.8% , 69.9% )Standard Def (SD) Video (44.0% , 9.1% )

Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP VoD Growth Ultra-HD IP VoD Will Account for 21% of Global IP VoD Traffic by 2019


14% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month


360 Immersive Video – Wild Card

• Ideal format for user-driven sports, entertainment and travel related video content

• YouTube added support for 360 videos (March 2015), making the site more useful to VR headset owners

• Google offers 360 video production support

• Currently a small selection of videos--more expected as new 360 camera options become available

• Live and VoD 360 content (4K) could have a significant “multiplier effect” on traffic due to higher definition and bit rates

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://rotopan.com/xe/newp/48057&ei=_AlWVcPwDsTtsAWi04CoBg&bvm=bv.93564037,d.b2w&psig=AFQjCNEET0l2RLuvvtDgabBkeNZs4T7FVg&ust=1431788362314060

http://www.globalvision.ch/en/360/immersive-video.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.airpano.com/360-videos.php&ei=twxWVaODAsvJtQXc_4CQBg&bvm=bv.93564037,d.b2w&psig=AFQjCNEBEWEOK8l8iyvXVwpfuoUta4RhHg&ust=1431788660076065




3









Global Video Users/ Subscribers Online & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR)

Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR)


(M)


Global Internet and TV Users/ Subscribers Global Residential Internet Growing; TV Household Penetration Flattening

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Residential Internet* ( 6.8% CAGR) Total TV HH ( 1.8% CAGR)


(M)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Residential Internet users include fixed and mobile Internet users

Global Digital Media Adapters* Growth By 2019, DMAs Will Represent 7% of Global Internet Set-Top-Boxes (STB) By 2019, DMAs Will Represent 32% of Global Internet STB Traffic

Digital Media Adapters

(M)

64.4

91.7

119.1

143.4

163.3 181.2

0

50

100

150

200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

0.68 1.13

1.67

2.25

2.83

3.43

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

DMA Traffic

(EB/Month)


38% CAGR 2014–2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019

* DMAs include devices such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast etc.

92

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015

Average Household

Cord-Cutting Household

43


GB per Month

Global Cord-Cutting Generates Double the Traffic A Cord-Cutting Household Generates 92 GB per Month in 2015, Compared to 43 GB per Month for an Average Household




3









Global Average Fixed Broadband Speeds Doubling in Speeds From 2014-2019

2014 2019 Global Mbps

BY REGION North America Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

20.3

21.8 21.8

7.2 23.2

22.2

6.1

42.5

43.7 49.1

16.9 48.9

45.3

14.9

Latin America

GLOBAL


Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019



Asia-Pacific



10.6

14.3 13.0

5.8 10.3

11.7

3.9

18.5

29.0 20.9

8.6 15.6

22.0

4.7

Latin America

GLOBAL


Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019 Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) Will Grow at a 19% CAGR—Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019



Asia-Pacific



1.7

2.8 2.0

1.4 2.0

1.6

0.6

3.9

6.4 4.7

2.9 3.5

3.7

2.1

Latin America

GLOBAL





3









Surge of Hotspots Globally, there will be 341 million hotspots by 2018 • By 2018, the US leads in total number of hotspots,

followed by China and France • Europe is the “continent of Wi-Fi” with 50% of the

world’s Wi-Fi estate in 2014. By 2018, Asia will lead. • Today, China has 5 times more commercial Wi-Fi

hotspots than any other country • Community Wi-Fi has been driven by Europe and

then North America, but Asia will catch up in 2018

Source: Maravedis Rethink and iPass Inc.

Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

802.11 2 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet

802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Email

802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web

802.11ac 3.6 Gbps Max

Applications Enabled High Resolution Video

Wired Complement

802.11n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video

Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 20-fold from 2014 to 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (11.4% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.1% CAGR)

17%

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2019, Two-Thirds of Total IP Traffic Will Be Wireless*

33%

36%

14%


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (9.9% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.7% CAGR)

Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Wireless Traffic Dominates Internet Traffic

19%

42%

18%

21%


Exabytes per Month

26% CAGR 2014–2019




3









Global Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster than Average Hour

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Average Hour

Busy Hour


Traffic Rate (Tbps)

Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher than Average Hour by 2019

2.8 2.6 2.6

3.3

2.9

2.3 2.6

3.4 3.3 3.2

3.7 3.6

3.0 3.1

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Glo

bal

APA

C

LATA

M NA

WE

CEE

MEA

Axis

Title


Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Upstream

OtherFile SharingWeb/DataCloudDownloadsInternet Video

Global Upstream Traffic Upstream is 23% of Bi-Directional Traffic Cloud is 13% of Upstream Internet Traffic


Exabytes per Month

Global Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology


2014 Metro is 2.1x Long-Haul

29 EB/mo 60 EB/mo 60 EB/mo

Long-Haul Metro Access

2019 Metro is 3.0x Long-Haul

57 EB/mo 168 EB/mo 168 EB/mo

Long-Haul Metro Access

Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) Internet Traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Non-CDN Internet Traffic (60.6%, 38.1%)CDN Internet Traffic (39.4%, 61.9%)


Exabytes per Month




3










Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage

Average Traffic per User

2014

16 GB per month

2019

37 GB per month

Future

75 GB per month

Average Traffic per Household

2014

37 GB per month

2019

91 GB per month

Future

150 GB per month

83

61

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2019

Other BroadbandFTTx

35


GB per Month

Globally, FTTx Traffic is 77% Higher than Non-FTTx FTTx Generates 61 GB per Month in 2014 and 120 GB per Month by 2019

Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

- 10 20 30 40 50 60Fixed Broadband Speeds (Mbps)

Video Minutesper Viewer

Linear (VideoMinutes perViewer)

Indonesia

India

Argentina Italy

Mexico

Brazil

Australia

Chile

Russia

Canada

U.K.

Japan

Germany

China

New Zealand

France

Spain

U.S.


Video Minutes

per Viewer

Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences

68% of all broadband connections by 2019

Online Video (HD movie download)

22 minutes (UHD movie download)

2 hours

10 Mbps




48 minutes

25 Mbps




12 minutes

100 Mbps

M2M Monetization and Data Plans Beeline M2M Services – mapping, monitoring, reporting, telemetry targeted at fleet management, oil and gas, point of sale terminal customers; Global M2M roaming alliance with KPN, NTT DoCoMo, Rogers Wireless, SingTel, Telefonica, and Telstra – cohesive global M2M solutions.

Telefónica UK to deploy smart meters in the central and southern regions of Great Britain – over 53m smart meters by 2020; £6.7bn in net benefits to UK through efficiency in management and deployment and reduced energy consumption.

CEE Region

Digital Life ($54.97/ month) home automation and security offer. It provides 24/7 monitoring, video surveillance, garage controller, smoke and carbon monoxide sensor, remote access from smartphone, tablet, or computer. Text and email alerts.

Mobile Shared Data Plan (10GB / $80 per month) can be shared across smartphones, tablets, basic phones, cameras, internet gaming devices, cars.

NA Region

WE Region NA Region

Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users are Impacted by Usage Limits


% Broadband HH > 500 GB

% Mobile Users > 2 GB

Global

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific



Latin America

COUNTRY

North America

7.8%

12.5%

5.8%

6.4%

5.2%

5.0%

28.3%

0.9%

1.0%

0.6%

0.8%

0.1%

1.0%

2.0%

Conclusion

Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2014–2019 Key Takeaways / Summary

Global IP Traffic By 2019, global IP traffic will reach 168 EBs/per month (2.0 ZBs annually).

Global Mobile Traffic By 2019, 14% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks.

Global Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 52% of global IP traffic.

Global IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 80% of the world’s IP traffic will be video.

Global Broadband Speeds By 2019, average broadband connection speed will more than double (20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps).

Global Devices/Connections By 2019, there will be 3.2 devices/ connections per capita globally.

Global Internet Users By 2019, there will be 3.9 Billion global internet users, representing 51% of the global population.


Cisco VNI Web Sites

• Press Release

• White Papers / FAQs

• Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa

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