Global Environmental Issues:Global Environmental Issues:A Case Study on Global A Case Study on Global

WarmingWarming

Presented by:

Amr S Algarhi

Azza A Shafei

Econ 506

17th May 2005

OOOPS

Global Environmental ProblemsGlobal Environmental Problems

Global warmingGlobal warming Acid rainAcid rain Ozone layer Ozone layer

depletiondepletion Biodiversity lossBiodiversity loss Infectious diseaseInfectious disease

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

……refers to an increase in average refers to an increase in average global temperature, also called: global temperature, also called:

Climate Change Climate Change

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse EffectSolar radiation Solar radiation

some is some is reflected by reflected by the earth and the earth and the the atmosphereatmosphere

some passes some passes through the through the atmosphere atmosphere and is and is absorbed by absorbed by the earth, the earth, warming itwarming it

Infrared radiationInfrared radiation

Some passes Some passes through the through the atmosphereatmosphere

Some is Some is absorbed and absorbed and re-emitted in all re-emitted in all directions by directions by greenhouse gas greenhouse gas modulesmodules

Causes of Global Warming Causes of Global Warming GHG - due to Natural and Human Economic ActivitiesGHG - due to Natural and Human Economic Activities

Gases Source

carbon dioxide (CO2) fossil-fuel burning, de-forestation

methane (CH4)agriculture activity, decomposition and disposal of waste

nitrous oxide (N2O)emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, and during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) industrial activities

perfluorocarbons (PFCs) industrial activities

sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) industrial activities

Human activities have changed the Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the composition of the atmosphere since the

pre- industrial erapre- industrial era

Characteristics of GHGCharacteristics of GHG

Atmospheric life time.Atmospheric life time.

Global warming potential.Global warming potential.

Atmospheric concentration.Atmospheric concentration.

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Concentration vs. Emissions.Concentration vs. Emissions.

Forecasts about emissions are very Forecasts about emissions are very sensitive.sensitive.

Qualitative scenarios for different Qualitative scenarios for different indicatorsindicators

Scenario Population Economy Environment Technology Globalization

A1F1          

A18        

A1T          

B1          

A2          

B2          

Impacts of Global WarmingImpacts of Global Warming- - physicalphysical

Shrinking glaciers & thawing Shrinking glaciers & thawing permafrostpermafrost

Later freezing and earlier Later freezing and earlier break up of river and lake icebreak up of river and lake ice

Sea level riseSea level rise

Higher incidence of floods Higher incidence of floods and droughts in some and droughts in some regionsregions

Impacts of Global WarmingImpacts of Global Warming- - biologicalbiological

Longer growing seasonsLonger growing seasons Poleward and altitude shifts of Poleward and altitude shifts of

plants and animal rangesplants and animal ranges Decline of some plant and Decline of some plant and

animal population ( Drive 15 - animal population ( Drive 15 - 37% of living species toward 37% of living species toward extinction by the middle of the extinction by the middle of the century)century)

Early tree flowering, emergence Early tree flowering, emergence of insects and birds eggs layingof insects and birds eggs laying

Damage to natural systemsDamage to natural systems

Many of these impacts are Many of these impacts are irreversibleirreversible

Impacts of Global WarmingImpacts of Global Warming- - human systemhuman system

Systems at risk include:Systems at risk include: water resourceswater resources Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry Coastal zones and Coastal zones and

marine systemsmarine systems Decreasing water Decreasing water

availability in regions availability in regions where water is already where water is already scarcescarce

Human health and risk of Human health and risk of diseasedisease

Game theoryGame theory

Y’s strategyX’s strategy

Pollute Abate

Pollute 0, 0 5, -2

Abate -2, 5 3, 3

A 2-player pollution abatement game

Toronto Conference (1988)Toronto Conference (1988)

Carbon dioxide targets.Carbon dioxide targets.

Carbon dioxide emissions.Carbon dioxide emissions.

GHG control (quantitative incentives rather GHG control (quantitative incentives rather than price incentives). than price incentives).

Rio de Janeiro Conference (1992)Rio de Janeiro Conference (1992)

Plans for controlling emissions.Plans for controlling emissions.

No commitments on:No commitments on:

A particular emissions reduction.A particular emissions reduction.

A timetable for any such reduction.A timetable for any such reduction.

Kyoto Protocol (1997)Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Conditions to be in force.Conditions to be in force.

Industrialized nations. Industrialized nations.

Developing countries.Developing countries.

Kyoto Protocol’sKyoto Protocol’sFlexible MechanismsFlexible Mechanisms

1)1) Emissions Trading or “HOT AIR Emissions Trading or “HOT AIR TRADING”TRADING”

2)2) Joint Implementation (JI)Joint Implementation (JI)

3)3) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Steps Towards Action on Climate ChangeSteps Towards Action on Climate Change

Event Date and place Principal achievements

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - First report

1990 Broad international scientific consensus that human actions are influencing the climate

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

1992, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Entered into force 1994)

Committed the global community to stabilising the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Recognised the primary responsibility of industrialised countries, and the differentiated responsibilities of developing countries

 

IPCC - Second report 1995 Confirmed human influence on climate

Stated that risk from climate change is severe enough to justify preventive actions (Governments which have signed the Convention have to accept the findings of the IPCC).

 

Conference of Parties (COP) 1 1995, Berlin Established budget, secretariat and institutional mechanisms

Established pilot phase of "Activities Implemented Jointly" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Agreed timetable for setting specific reduction targets for industrialised countries

 

Conference of Parties (COP) 2 1996, Geneva Endorsed IPCC2 and COP1 agreements

US announced its commitment to binding targets "medium-term", with "flexibility, in implementation measures"

OPEC dropped its opposition to action

 

Steps Towards Action on Climate ChangeSteps Towards Action on Climate Change

Event Date and place Principal achievements

Conference of Parties (COP) 3 1997, Kyoto Agreed the Kyoto Protocol, with targets for industrialised country greenhouse gas reductions

Conference of Parties (COP) 4 1998, Buenos Aires

Agreed a "Plan of Action" for following up on the Kyoto Protocol, including processes for stimulating technology transfer

Conference of Parties (COP) 5 1999, Bonn Further progress on implementing the Kyoto Protocol

Conference of Parties (COP) 6 2000, The Hague

IPCC - Third report 2000/2001  

“Rio plus Ten” Earth Summit 2002 Many people hope the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified and will enter into force by this the time. [This didn't happen. It DID now come into force February 2005]

Negotiations begin for a second round of emissions reductions

2005 This is the target date to start negotiations for the second period of the Kyoto Protocol

Agreed cuts in greenhouse gases 2008-2012 This is the period in which emissions cuts agreed in the Kyoto Protocol have to be achieved and measured

Global Warming will affect EgyptGlobal Warming will affect Egypt

(1)(1) water resourceswater resources

(2)(2) coastal zonescoastal zones

Egypt is potentially one of the countries Egypt is potentially one of the countries most at risk from the effects of climate most at risk from the effects of climate change.change.

Recommendation for Global Recommendation for Global Warming AbatementWarming Abatement

Increase the capacity of ‘pools’ that absorb Increase the capacity of ‘pools’ that absorb carbon dioxide and other GHG from the carbon dioxide and other GHG from the atmosphere.atmosphere.

Decrease the rate of emissions of GHG Decrease the rate of emissions of GHG (reducing GHG inflows).(reducing GHG inflows).

Recommendation for Global Recommendation for Global Warming AbatementWarming Abatement

stop using burning fuelsstop using burning fuels and changes in and changes in fuel mix (from fossil to renewable energy)fuel mix (from fossil to renewable energy)

use the new technologies that are now use the new technologies that are now available, like better filters.available, like better filters.

Recommendation for Global Recommendation for Global Warming AbatementWarming Abatement

Stabilizing population growth worldwide.Stabilizing population growth worldwide.

power stations should not be permitted to power stations should not be permitted to discharge warm cooling waters into rivers discharge warm cooling waters into rivers and oceans.and oceans.

Recommendation for Global Recommendation for Global Warming AbatementWarming Abatement

Financial and technological transfers from Financial and technological transfers from developed to developing nations.developed to developing nations.

helping low-income nations develop helping low-income nations develop cleanly.cleanly.

Recommendation for Global Recommendation for Global Warming AbatementWarming Abatement

learn and use good ideas and solutions learn and use good ideas and solutions from other countries from other countries that help us that help us eliminate global warming. For example, a eliminate global warming. For example, a country that is fighting global warming and country that is fighting global warming and producing less polluting fuels is Brazil. producing less polluting fuels is Brazil. Instead of gasoline Brazilians use alcohol, Instead of gasoline Brazilians use alcohol, which is made from sugar cane and which is made from sugar cane and cassava. The exhaust fumes from this cassava. The exhaust fumes from this alcohol fuel are almost clean alcohol fuel are almost clean enough toenough to breathe. breathe.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU