georgia’s revenue outlook
DESCRIPTION
Georgia’s Revenue Outlook. Joint Appropriations Committees January 21, 2009. Ken Heaghney Office of Planning & Budget Georgia State University – Fiscal Research Center. Agenda. FY 2009 YTD Revenue Performance Economic Outlook Revenue Estimate – Amended FY 2009 & FY 2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Georgia’s Revenue Outlook
Joint Appropriations CommitteesJanuary 21, 2009
Ken HeaghneyOffice of Planning & BudgetGeorgia State University – Fiscal Research Center
Agenda
• FY 2009 YTD Revenue Performance
• Economic Outlook
• Revenue Estimate – Amended FY 2009 & FY 2010
YTD DOR Revenue Growth Equals -2.7%
-6.6% -7.0%
4.5%
-0.1%
1.4%
-8.9%-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* May* Jun
DOR Revenue Growth
FY08 FY09 *Apr/May Results Averaged
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-07
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Growth in DOR Revenues(Yr/Yr % Change - 3 Month Moving Average)
Improving Performance Through November But December was Very Weak
Individual Income Tax: YTD Growth Equals -3.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%Ju
l-06
Au
g-0
6
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
No
v-06
Dec
-06
Jan
-07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Ap
r-07
May
-07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-07
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
% C
han
ge
Ove
r Pri
or Y
ear
(3 M
on
th M
A)
Individual Income Tax Revenue Growth
Sales Tax: YTD Growth Equals -0.9%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sept. 2006
Oct. 2006
Nov. 2006
Dec. 2006
Jan. 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
June 2007
Jul. 2007
Aug. 2007
Sept. 2007
Oct. 2007
Nov. 2007
Dec. 2007
Jan. 2008
Feb. 2008
Mar. 2008
Apr. 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 2008
Aug 2008
Sep 2008
Oct 2008
Nov 2008
Dec 2008
Sales Tax Revenue Growth 3 Month Moving Average
Gross Net
Corporate Income Tax: YTD Growth Equals -18.4%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Jul-
06
Sep
-06
No
v-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-
07
Sep
-07
No
v-07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-08
% C
ha
ng
e -
3 M
on
th M
ACorporate Income Tax Revenue Growth
Agenda
• FY 2009 YTD Revenue Performance
• Economic Outlook
• Revenue Estimate – Amended FY 2009 & FY 2010
US and Georgia are Mired in Deep Economic Recession
• Housing correction led to massive losses on mortgage backed securities and undermined global financial markets
• Unprecedented government intervention has improved conditions in financial markets but markets remain unsettled
• Labor markets weakened precipitously in late 2008
• Consumers have pulled back sharply on spending, particularly on durables such as autos
• Global slowdown has harmed domestic manufacturing as exports have fallen
• Countervailing forces
• Massive liquidity injection to free up financial markets and stimulate investment and spending
• Massive fiscal stimulus expected early in the new administration
• Commodity prices, including gasoline, have plummeted reducing pressure on household budgets
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-
04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-
06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep-
07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-
08
S&P / Case- Shiller Home Price Index
Atlanta Composite-20
Median Home Price Down Over 23% from the Peak
Financial Markets are Improving But Remain Stressed
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1990
M1
1990
M6
1990
M11
1991
M4
1991
M9
1992
M2
1992
M7
1992
M12
1993
M5
1993
M10
1994
M3
1994
M8
1995
M1
1995
M6
1995
M11
1996
M4
1996
M9
1997
M2
1997
M7
1997
M12
1998
M5
1998
M10
1999
M3
1999
M8
2000
M1
2000
M6
2000
M11
2001
M4
2001
M9
2002
M2
2002
M7
2002
M12
2003
M5
2003
M10
2004
M3
2004
M8
2005
M1
2005
M6
2005
M11
2006
M4
2006
M9
2007
M2
2007
M7
2007
M12
2008
M5
2008
M10
Spread Between LIBOR and 90 Day Treasury Bill Rate
Job Markets have Plunged
Unemployment has Risen Rapidly
Consumer Expenditures are Growing Very Slowly
Durables are Bearing the Brunt of the Slowdown
Exports have Dropped as Global Economies have Slowed
Countervailing Forces: Monetary Policy• Fed Funds target rate reduced to a range of 0 to 25 basis
points
• Created new lending facilities to provide short-term liquidity to sound financial institutions
• Term Auction Facility, Term Securities Lending Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility
• Currency Swap Agreements with foreign central banks
• Provision of credit directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets
• Purchase high quality commercial paper
• Lend against AAA-rated asset-backed securities
• Purchase longer-term securities
• $100 billion in government sponsored entity (GSE) debt
• $500 billion in GSE mortgage-backed securities
Countervailing Forces: Fiscal Stimulus• Large fiscal stimulus effort expected from the new
administration – press reports suggest $750+ billion spread over 2 years.
• Details are uncertain, speculation is that the stimulus will consist of tax cuts, aid to state & local governments, direct spending on infrastructure and other programs
• On a per capita basis, Georgia’s share would be on the order of $11.9 billion per year – or about 3% of Georgia’s GDP
Countervailing Forces: Falling Commodity Prices
At Current Levels, the Decrease in Gasoline Prices will Free Up about $10.7 Billion in Annual Spending Power in
Georgia
Economic Scenario
1. Recession will continue through end of fiscal year
2. Job losses will continue but should moderate and consumer expenditures will grow slowly
3. Global downturn will harm manufacturing
4. Economy should begin to recover in second half of calendar 2009 but recovery will be slow
5. Risks to the outlook are large. Policy makers continue to wrestle to calm financial markets. Size, timing and composition of fiscal stimulus is uncertain. Oil prices are very low but could spike on geopolitical concerns.
Agenda
• FY 2008 YTD Revenue Performance
• Economic Outlook
• Revenue Estimate – Amended FY 2009 & FY 2010
% Growth % GrowthAmended versus versus
FY 2008 FY2009 FY2009 FY 2008 FY 2009Reported Estimated Estimated Reported Estimated
Total Taxes $17,695,117,754 $19,144,419,118 $16,920,041,585 -4.4% -11.6%
Total Regulatory Fees $1,032,694,869 $973,169,321 $983,955,258 -4.7% 1.1%
Total General Fund $18,727,812,623 $20,117,588,439 $17,903,996,843 -4.4% -11.0%
Other Funds Available $1,061,990,695 $1,048,294,077 $1,299,249,167 22.3% 23.9%
Total Funds Available $19,789,803,318 $21,165,882,516 $19,203,246,010 -3.0% -9.3%
Amended FY 2009
Key Points
1.Revenue estimate includes $50 million from RSR
2.Revenue growth of -5.3% is required over January through June to reach revenue estimate
FY 2010% Growth
versusAmended AmendedFY2009 FY 2010 FY 2009
Estimated Estimated Estimated
Total Taxes $16,920,041,585 $17,288,273,764 2.2%
Total Regulatory Fees $983,955,258 $1,193,351,799 21.3%
Total General Fund $17,903,996,843 $18,481,625,563 3.2%
Other Funds Available $1,299,249,167 $1,712,349,327 31.8%
Total Funds Available $19,203,246,010 $20,193,974,890 5.2%
Key Points
1.Revenue estimate includes $408 million from RSR
2.Mild economic recovery to begin in second half of 2009 is projected to add about $368 million in revenue growth
3.Health care provider fee strategy and super speeder fine add about $240.7 million to funds available