GAS AND FUEL SITE DWELLING YIELD ANALYSIS AND POPULATION FORECASTS

Prepared forMARCH 2018 This report was requested by Russell Kennedy on behalf

of City of Kingston, and is subject to legal professional privilege.

© SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2018This report has been prepared for Kingston City CouncilThis report was requested by Russell Kennedy on behalf of City of Kingston, and is subject to legal professional privilege. . SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein.SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II

1. DWELLING YIELD 1

1.1 Method 11.2 Summary of dwelling yield. 3

2. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 5

2.1 Method 52.2 Population and dwelling projections 52.3 Age profiles 62.4 Consideration of dwelling yield and population forecasts: 7

REFERENCES 8

3. APPENDIX 9

3.1 SAM model forecasting 9

ADDITIONAL AGE BREAKDOWNS 10

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: PROPOSED DPO CONCEPT PLAN

FIGURE 2: PRECINCTS DEFINED FOR ANALYSIS

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: POTENTIAL YIELD BY PRECINCTTABLE 2: POPULATION & DWELLING PROJECTIONSTABLE 3: AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZESTABLE 4: AGE PROFILE IN 2016TABLE 5: AGE PROFILE IN 2026TABLE 6: AGE PROFILE IN 2036TABLE 7: GROWTH IN POPULATION 2016- 2036 BY AGE PROFILETABLE 8: 2016TABLE 9: 2026TABLE 10: 2036TABLE 11: CHANGE 2016-2036

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

OutlineThis report provides a population forecast and an assessment of dwelling yield for the Gasworks Site in Highett. It assesses the total dwelling yield possible on site based on the height limits detailed in the proposed DPO Concept Plan. This report was requested by Russell Kennedy on behalf of the City of Kingston, and is subject to legal professional privilege. In the letter of instruction dated 8th February, SGS was asked to undertake§ A review of the amendment and the relevant strategic planning

background and supporting documents§ A dwelling yield analysis§ Estimates and identification of any assumptions in relation to

population numbers, household size and age structure as a result of the proposal.

This report includes an analysis of the age profile of the projected population at 2016, 2026 and 2036, and the total growth in population. The dwelling yield of the site is estimated as between 1,200 and 1,400 dwellings. This is a theoretical yield, and assumes complete build out of site.Dwelling forecasts to 2036 on the Gasworks site indicates there will be demand for 1,290 new dwellings. This suggests that the height limits prescribed within the proposed DPO are well suited to meeting the projected demand for new dwellings on site.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts ii

1. DWELLING YIELD

1.1 MethodThe proposed DPO for the Gasworks site identifies a series of height limits across the site. These are shown in Figure 1.

FIGURE 1: PROPOSED DPO CONCEPT PLAN

Source: Proposed DPO Concept Plan, City of Kingston, 2018

The dwelling yield analysis is driven by the amount of land that is available for residential development. Two options were tested, which allowed for a higher and lower threshold in potential housing yield to be identified. § The options differed in the amount of gross land area that would be

used by public infrastructure. Industry standards range from 25-35 percent. And these were used as upper and lower public infrastructure allocations.

§ Public infrastructure includes roads, public open space, bike paths, footpaths and any other element of the public realm.

§ This approach was adopted given specific sites for open space have yet to be identified, and, transport networks have not been confirmed.

The dwelling yield for the Gasworks site was completed using the following method:§ The Gasworks site was divided into 8 precincts (as shown in Figure 2)

based on the height limits illustrated in the concept plan.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 1

§ Maximum heights (in storeys) were coded to each precinct.§ The total land area of each precinct was identified through GIS

analysis.§ 2,200sqm of area is identified as an allocation of open space on the

site, with alternative locations under consideration. It was removed from precinct 1 for the purposes of this analysis. This land is replacing open space in the nearby William Fry Reserve where gas lines are being relocated to. This figure is based on the MOU established with the State Government.1

FIGURE 2: PRECINCTS DEFINED FOR ANALYSIS

§ The remaining site area available for development was then identified:§ Option 1: 25% of available space allocated to infrastructure/open

space§ Option 2: 35% of available space allocated to infrastructure/open

space§ Site density was calculated using a model that relies on a series of

assumptions for each of the different precincts. These assumptions are outlined below.

§ The estimate of site density (dwellings per ha, based on height limitations) was applied to the two possible available area options to identify the range for the site’s potential dwelling yield.

1 The precise location of this open space transfer is subject to change and is not included in the public open space contribution required within the planning scheme.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 2

Assumptions for Site Density calculation: § Apartment buildings of 4 or more storeys:

§ 70% site coverage, § 70% efficiency (to allow for carparking, internal circulation, lift wells

etc) , § average apartment size of 80square metres. § There will be a minimum setback from the third floor, approximated

at 20% of GFA2. § 2 -3 storey townhouses:

§ 70% site coverage, § 100% efficiency, § average townhouse size of 150 square metres for buildings 3 or less

storeysSite DensitySite density (or simply ‘density’ as referred to in this report) is a measure which is only based on the land area available for the residential dwelling itself and therefore does not include surrounding open space, roads, footpaths or other land required to support residential uses. For this reason a site density figure for the same type of development is typically higher than broader density measures which include other land uses within their calculation.SGS has completed extensive analysis of development typologies by site density. From this analysis we have found that each development form typically falls within a particular density range. These ranges overlap, meaning multiple development forms can be achieved at one specific density. This has been used to inform the potential yield assumptions applied to various residential zoned land.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning (2017)

1.2 Summary of dwelling yield.Estimated densities have also been adjusted to take into consideration that there may be developments that do not achieve the height limit. The density measures applied have been sense checked against adjacent existing medium density developments:

3 Remington Drive: mix of 5 – 6 storeys (apartments) with density of 268 dwellings per hectare

2 This is consistent with planning report developed by Meinhardt.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 3

1142 Nepean Highway: 3-4 storeys (apartments) with density of 285 dwellings per hectare.

Table 1 shows potential yield for each of the 8 sub-precincts identified in Figure 2.

TABLE 1: POTENTIAL YIELD BY PRECINCT

Analysis

Precinct

MaxHeigh

t (store

ys)

Area(sq. m)

Area (25%

infrastructure

allowance)

Area (35%

infrastructure

allowance)

Dwellings per ha

Dwelling Yield (25%

infrastructure

allowance)

DwellingYield (35%

infrastructure

allowance)

1 6 23,880* 15,710 14,092

300 471 423

2 2 1,915 1,436 1,245 80 11 10 3 6 4,783 3,587 3,109 300 108 93 4 6 4,339 3,254 2,820 300 98 85 5 8 5,906 4,430 3,839 400 177 154 6 3 4,954 3,716 3,220 120 45 39 7 8 13,10

1 9,826 8,516 400 393 341

8 6 4,276 3,207 2,779 300 96 83 Total 63,15

4 1,399 1,227

Source: *this precinct has an MOU with the state government where 2,200 square metres of land will be transferred for open space, due to the relocation of gaps pipes to Sire William Fry Reserve. This does not comprise part of the open space contributions associated with development.

This analysis of potential dwelling yield on the Gasworks site estimates a potential yield for between 1,200 and 1,400 dwellings. There are several Gross Floor Area figures outlined in the CHT Architectural report. These can be used to confirm the validity of the potential yield on site.CHT suggests that there will be 92,840 square metres of floor space in towers across the site, 16,856 square metres of gross floor space in podium townhouses, and an additional 26 townhouses in the areas with 2 and 3 storey height limits.Using the same apartment size assumptions as applied to the SGS dwelling yield analysis, this can be translated to:1,160 apartments in towers, 26 townhouses in low rise precincts and 112 townhouses on podiums, totalling 1,298 dwellings3. The consistency between SGS’s top down method for calculating potential dwelling yield and the assessed housing yield of CHT’s site proposal indicates that the range of 1,200 to 1,400 dwellings for the site is reliable.

3 No discount was applied for floorplate efficiency as the CHT report accounts for carparking.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 4

2. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

2.1 MethodDwellings and population has been projected to 2036 for the Gasworks site, the suburb of Highett, and Kingston LGA, for context. Projections are made using a combination of macro-economic trend analysis (top down) and an analysis of local characteristics (bottom up).

SAM forecasts§ SGS maintains a Small Area Model (SAM) which includes population

and dwelling forecasts across the state. This was used to understand regional trends and form a basis for the forecasts for the three geographies presented. (Gasworks site, Highett, Kingston)

§ This model divides Victoria into over 20,000 zones, and projects employment, population and dwellings across these zones.

§ The SAM forecasts exactly align with 2016 Victoria-in-Future (VIF16) population and housing projections created by Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) at a Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level

§ Many other datasets and information sources were also utilised and are documented in this report. It should be noted SAM does not include ABS Census 2016 data as this was not released at the time of development.

§ For each site, the SAM zones covered were aggregated to find the total projected population and dwellings for each of the years being analysed.

§ For more detailed outline of the methodology, refer to the Appendix.

The Small Area Model provides a set of age breakdowns, 0 to 4, 5 to 11, 12 to 17, 18 to 25, 26 to 64 and 65 plus. This analysis provides more detailed breakdowns for the population aged 26 and over. Forecasts for the additional age break down categories are derived from Victoria in the Future (VIF) forecasts for the LGA of Kingston. The proportions for population forecasts in each of these age brackets are applied to the SAM model forecasts4.

2.2 Population and dwelling projectionsTable 2 shows the projected population and number of households in 2016, 2026, and 2036, as well as the change between 2016 and 2036.

TABLE 2: POPULATION & DWELLING PROJECTIONS

Precinct Pop 2016 Pop 2026 Pop 2036

Change 26-36

Dwellings 2016

Dwellings 2026

Dwellings 2036

Change 16-36

Gasworks - 2,161 3,167 3,167 - 867 1,290 1,290 Highett 3,836 7,056 8,680 4,844 1,638 2,954 3,659 2,021 Kingston LGA 156,132 173,542 192,670 36,538 62,632 70,796 80,186 17,553

4 An example would be if 25% of those aged between 26 and 64 were in the 26 to 34 year age bracket, this percentage is then applied to the SAM forecasts of 26 to 64 year olds.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 5

Source: SGS 2018Table 3 gives the average household sizes predicted in 2016, 2026, and 2036. The Gasworks site shows slightly larger households to the surrounding Highett suburb, and Kingston as a whole.

TABLE 3: AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZES

Precinct 2016 2026 2036Gasworks - 2.49 2.45Highett 2.34 2.39 2.37Kingston LGA 2.49 2.45 2.40

Source: SGS 2018

2.3 Age profilesThe following tables show the age profiles (number, and percentage of total) of the three locations, in 2016, 26, and 36. There is currently no residential population on the Gasworks site.

TABLE 4: AGE PROFILE IN 2016Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston

0 to 4 267 7% 9,098 6%5 to 11 279 7% 12,864 8%

12 to 17 193 5% 9,949 6%18 to 25 352 9% 15,095 10%26 to 34 464 12% 19,812 13%35 to 44 614 16% 22,649 15%45 to 54 554 14% 21,809 14%55 to 64 379 10% 18,526 12%65 to 74 362 9% 14,176 9%75 plus 372 10% 12,132 8%

total 3,836 100% 156,132 100%Source: Source: SGS 2018By 2026, over 2,000 people will be living within the Gasworks site. Table 5 shows that Gasworks is projected to have relatively similar age profiles, to Highett and Kingston, however the Gasworks has a slightly higher proportion of children aged 0 to 11, and a lower proportion of those over 65. .

TABLE 5: AGE PROFILE IN 2026Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston

0 to 4 179 8% 489 7% 9,743 6%5 to 11 198 9% 541 8% 13,212 8%

12 to 17 138 6% 425 6% 11,771 7%18 to 25 208 10% 658 9% 16,025 9%26 to 34 420 19% 1,446 20% 36,270 21%35 to 44 222 10% 766 11% 19,217 11%45 to 54 208 10% 716 10% 17,952 10%55 to 64 189 9% 653 9% 16,364 9%65 to 74 199 9% 678 10% 16,414 9%75 plus 201 9% 684 10% 16,575 10%

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 6

total 2,161100% 7,056 100% 173,54

2100%

Source: Source: SGS 2018

All three sites continue to show a relatively similar age profile in 2036, although the Gasworks site will continue to have the highest proportion of children aged 0 to 11.

TABLE 6: AGE PROFILE IN 2036Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston

0 to 4 251 8% 596 7% 10,430 5%5 to 11 271 9% 647 7% 14,002 7%

12 to 17 203 6% 526 6% 12,392 6%18 to 25 311 10% 824 9% 17,488 9%26 to 34 356 11% 1,025 12% 23,110 12%35 to 44 401 13% 1,153 13% 25,987 13%45 to 54 374 12% 1,077 12% 24,276 13%55 to 64 356 11% 1,024 12% 23,085 12%65 to 74 315 10% 882 10% 20,434 11%75 plus 331 10% 927 11% 21,465 11%

total 3,167 100% 8,680 100% 192,670 100%Source: Source: SGS 2018

TABLE 7: GROWTH IN POPULATION 2016- 2036 BY AGE PROFILE

Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston0 to 4 251 329 1,332 5 to 11 271 368 1,138 12 to 17 203 333 2,443 18 to 25 311 472 2,393 26 to 34 356 561 3,298 35 to 44 401 539 3,338 45 to 54 374 523 2,466 55 to 64 356 645 4,560 65 to 74 315 520 6,258 75 plus 331 555 9,333 total 3,167 4,844 36,558

Source: SGS 2018

2.4 Consideration of dwelling yield and population forecasts:The dwelling yield of the site is estimated as between 1,200 and 1,400 dwellings. This is a theoretical dwelling yield, and assumes complete build out of site.Dwelling forecasts to 2036 (as shown in Table 2) on the Gasworks site indicates there will be demand for 1,290 new dwellings. This suggests that the height limits prescribed within the proposed DPO are well suited to meeting the demand for new dwellings on site.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 7

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 8

REFERENCES

§ Proposed Development Plan Overlay for Nepean Highway Site https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0025/91708/FTGLS-T15-FT120-1.10-Development-Plan-Overlay-Map.PDF

§ Schedule 7 to the Development Plan Overlay – Kingston Planning Scheme

§ Kingston Planning Scheme http://planning-schemes.delwp.vic.gov.au/schemes/combined-ordinances/Kingston_PS_Ordinance.pdf

§ Schedule 2 to Clause 32.07 Residential Growth Zone – Kingston Planning Scheme

§ Proposed Residential Development: Traffic Engineering Assessment – Traffix Group https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0026/91709/FTGLS-T15-FT120-1.11-Site-Traffic-Report-Traffix-Group,-July-2017.PDF

§ Architectural Investigation Report (1136-1138 Nepean Highway Highett: “Gasworks” – CHT Architects https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/91712/FTGLS-T15-FT120-1.12-Architectural-Investigation-Report-CHT-Architects,-August-2017.PDF

§ Memorandum of Understanding – Highett Gas project- Department of Treasury and Finance (2011)

§ 1136-1138 Nepean Highway, Highett, Planning Scheme Amendment Report – August 17 Meinhardt

§ Highett Structure Plan, Prepared for Bayside and Kingston City councils, Hansen Partnership, National Economics and Greg Tucker and Associates, November 2005

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 9

3. APPENDIX

This describes the methodological approach to SGS SAM model forecasts.

3.1 SAM model forecasting

Dwellings and population (at place of usual residence)

Structural Private DwellingsDwellings (i.e. occupied and unoccupied dwellings) is the first variable estimated, as this is the most reliable source of supply level data. § VIF16 dwelling projections by SA2 forms the base control totals for SAM§ A base year (2011 to 2016) travel zone level dwelling estimate is then

created based on 2014 Housing Development Data (HDD) and ABS 2011 Census data.

§ A wide range of local level development datasets (such as the Urban Development Program and Precinct Structure Plans (PSP) information) is consolidated into a single travel zone level database. This also includes density/growth by location type assumptions to manage long term growth. Each input is also assigned a preferred timing and priority based on known developments and planning policy. SA2 control totals are then systematically distributed down to travel zones.

§ The combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches mean that the resulting forecasts are consistent with regional trends, planning policy, and local supply information

Population and demographic breakdownsDwellings are then systematically disaggregated to occupied private dwellings, population, and age groups. People in non-private dwellings (i.e. nursing homes, jails, hotels, etc) are also estimated and incorporated into the population and population by age projections.§ VIF16 dwelling, household and population by age projections by SA2

forms the base control totals for SAM model population and demographic breakdowns.

§ 2011 ABS Census data is then aligned to travel zones and ratios (i.e. occupancy rates, household size, etc) are used to convert travel zone level dwelling data to population. Data is then benchmarked back to VIF16 control totals for each component.

§ Travel zone ratios are then trended toward SA2 ratios for each component over time, with some adjustments. This maintains travel zone variations while captures macro trends in dwelling, household and population. Data is then benchmarked back to VIF16 control totals for each component.

§ For population by age an Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) approach is used to evolve the travel zone distribution over time to align to the SA2 control totals, while still reflect the variation at the travel zone level.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 10

Seed values for new residential locations are sourced from the respective local region.

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 11

ADDITIONAL AGE BREAKDOWNS

In order to identify the number of people within specific age brackets required for community planning, the age forecasts outlined in chapter 2 were further broken down. The forecasts outlined below assume a linear distribution of population within the age bracket. For example, in the 0 to 4 year age bracket, it is assumed there is the same number of children aged 0, 1,2,3 and 4. More detailed modelling of age forecasts is outside the scope of this project. Further such specific forecasting is often unrealistic as there are a number of uncertainties that cannot be factored into forecasting methods.

TABLE 8: 2016

Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston0 year olds 53 1,820 3 year olds 53 1,820 4 year olds 53 1,8205 to 9 year olds 199 9,189

Source: SGS 2018

TABLE 9: 2026

Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston0 year olds 36 98 1,949 3 year olds 36 98 1,949 4 year olds 36 98 1,949 5 to 9 year olds 141 386 9,437

Source: SGS 2018

TABLE 10: 2036

Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston0 year olds 50 119 2,086 3 year olds 50 119 2,086 4 year olds 50 119 2,086 5 to 9 year olds 194 462 10,001

Source: SGS 2018

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 12

TABLE 11: CHANGE 2016-2036

Age group Gasworks Highett Kingston0 year olds 50 66 266 3 year olds 50 66 266 4 year olds 50 66 266 5 to 9 year olds 194 263 813

Source: SGS 2018

Gas and Fuel Site Dwelling Yield Analysis and population forecasts 13

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