fyp presentation long term wind variability
TRANSCRIPT
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 1
Project Supervisor: Dr. David Corcoran
To examine whether the wind speed in the south west of Ireland is reducing/increasing
To explore the reasons for any change
To look at the effects of wind speed changes on power generation
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 2
Ireland’s renewable energy target to be met by 2020 is 42 percent of national demand
Any increase or decrease of wind speed will have a major impact on power generation and on Ireland’s ability to meet this target
Intermittency will become a bigger factor if wind speeds reduce
With intermittency of wind, a back-up source of energy is required- a “Spinning Reserve”
If wind speeds were to show a major variation more of these “Spinning Reserves” would need to be added to the grid
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 3
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 4
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 5
The force that causes the wind to blow
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 6
An apparent deflection A fictitious force
Lateral transfer of wind due to temperature difference
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 7
Drag decreases withheight and wind speed
0.7
0.9
1.1
19
39
19
42
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45
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48
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51
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54
19
57
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60
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63
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66
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84
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90
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93
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96
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02
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05
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08
20
11
Win
d S
peed
In
dex
Years
Wind Index at Valentia from 1939-2012
Wind index
Linear (Wind index)
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 8
Wind Rose Valentia
Wind index method:
𝑣𝑦 = 1
𝑁
𝑖=𝑗
𝑁
𝑣𝑖𝑦
ҧ𝑣𝑦= 1
𝑁
𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡
𝑥 𝑒𝑛𝑑
𝑣𝑦
𝑣𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 =
𝑣𝑦
ത𝑣𝑦
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 9
Other methods:
Weibull distribution method
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 10
Wind Index at the south west of the UK from 1983-2011
Win
d S
peed
In
dex
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.319
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
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96
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
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20
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20
11
Win
d S
peed In
dex
Time (years)
Wind speed appears to be decreasing in the south west of Ireland. My literary review points to the following reasons:
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Climate change
Surface roughness
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 11
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 12
29-Oct 19-Nov 10-Dec 31-Dec 21-Jan 11-Feb 3-Mar 24-Mar 14-Apr
Interim report completion
Weeks 11,12, study week and exams
Christmas break
Read more journals and get a more indept knowledge of the subject
Analysis data using different methods
Analysis data using different locations (other countries)
Discussion of results and trends
consequence on revenue for wind suppliers
Conclusions and completion of report
Electronic copy of final report submitted to supervisor
Final report submitted as an electric copy and two bound copies
Interview and external examiner
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 13