fyp presentation long term wind variability

13
Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 1 Project Supervisor: Dr. David Corcoran

Upload: robbie-pratt

Post on 10-Feb-2017

44 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 1

Project Supervisor: Dr. David Corcoran

Page 2: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

To examine whether the wind speed in the south west of Ireland is reducing/increasing

To explore the reasons for any change

To look at the effects of wind speed changes on power generation

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 2

Page 3: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Ireland’s renewable energy target to be met by 2020 is 42 percent of national demand

Any increase or decrease of wind speed will have a major impact on power generation and on Ireland’s ability to meet this target

Intermittency will become a bigger factor if wind speeds reduce

With intermittency of wind, a back-up source of energy is required- a “Spinning Reserve”

If wind speeds were to show a major variation more of these “Spinning Reserves” would need to be added to the grid

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 3

Page 4: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 4

Page 5: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 5

The force that causes the wind to blow

Page 6: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 6

An apparent deflection A fictitious force

Lateral transfer of wind due to temperature difference

Page 7: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 7

Drag decreases withheight and wind speed

Page 8: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

0.7

0.9

1.1

19

39

19

42

19

45

19

48

19

51

19

54

19

57

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

Win

d S

peed

In

dex

Years

Wind Index at Valentia from 1939-2012

Wind index

Linear (Wind index)

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 8

Wind Rose Valentia

Page 9: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Wind index method:

𝑣𝑦 = 1

𝑁

𝑖=𝑗

𝑁

𝑣𝑖𝑦

ҧ𝑣𝑦= 1

𝑁

𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑥 𝑒𝑛𝑑

𝑣𝑦

𝑣𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 =

𝑣𝑦

ത𝑣𝑦

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 9

Other methods:

Weibull distribution method

Page 10: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 10

Wind Index at the south west of the UK from 1983-2011

Win

d S

peed

In

dex

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.319

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Win

d S

peed In

dex

Time (years)

Page 11: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Wind speed appears to be decreasing in the south west of Ireland. My literary review points to the following reasons:

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Climate change

Surface roughness

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 11

Page 12: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 12

29-Oct 19-Nov 10-Dec 31-Dec 21-Jan 11-Feb 3-Mar 24-Mar 14-Apr

Interim report completion

Weeks 11,12, study week and exams

Christmas break

Read more journals and get a more indept knowledge of the subject

Analysis data using different methods

Analysis data using different locations (other countries)

Discussion of results and trends

consequence on revenue for wind suppliers

Conclusions and completion of report

Electronic copy of final report submitted to supervisor

Final report submitted as an electric copy and two bound copies

Interview and external examiner

Page 13: FYP presentation Long Term Wind Variability

Robbie Pratt-12140643- Bachelor of Science in Energy-FYP "Long Term Wind Variability: Characteristics and Effect on generation" 13