future of cities insights from discussions building on an initial perspective by an initial...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Ci-es Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Harry Rich| Chief Execu4ve | Royal Ins4tute of Bri4sh Architects
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Ci4es kicked off the
Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
Mass Urbanisa-on By 2050 over 70% of people will live in a city. The growth of mega-‐ci4es is crea4ng a new wave of urbanisa4on. Such mass urbanisa4on requires a
rethink about how we plan and design ci4es.
Consuming Ci-es Ci4es consume 75% of the world’s natural resources, and produce more than
60% of GHG emissions. As a result, while the economic power of ci4es con4nues to grow, they remain vulnerable to the by-‐products of their success.
Floa-ng Ci-es? Climate change poses a worrying challenge for ci4es. Already 50% of ci4es are dealing with its effects, and nearly all are at risk. Over 90% of all urban
areas are coastal, pu\ng most ci4es on earth at risk of flooding.
Adap-ng for Ageing Popula-ons In developed countries, 80% of older people will live in ci4es by 2050, while
ci4es in developing countries will house 25% of the older popula4on. Planners are adap4ng urban environments to support healthy ageing of popula4ons.
Crea-ve Hubs Ci4es have a long history of fostering social and prac4cal innova4on. New technology has enabled ci4es to evolve and reinvent themselves in the face of huge social, environmental and technological upheaval.
Living Ci-es As technology becomes more sophis4cated, new approaches create place-‐based design that addresses the health and environmental impacts of ci4es,
making more compact spaces more appealing to poten4al residents.
Digital Engagement Ci4es are using digital pla`orms to beaer plan for the future and encourage public engagement. Using new technology and big data to support strategic planning of a city can help improve public engagement with the process.
New Models and Measures We need measures to help technology to play a role across boundaries.
Globally, a strong cultural shid will be required, moving away from business as usual to models that enable the economy to thrive within resource constraints.
People-‐Powered Planning In an era where the public voice is easier to access and harder to suppress, it becomes harder to generate support for new ini4a4ves without taking public views into account. Leaders will need to maintain public and poli4cal support.
Las-ng Design We need a shid toward a circular economy that is restora4ve, both naturally and technically. Buildings have to be built to an4cipate future change, rather
than using design standards based on exis4ng condi4ons.
Valuing Crea-vity Ci4es need to increasingly embrace the value of crea4vity as
both an agent of change and as part of considering and providing holis4c processes for change.
Healthy Ci-es New approaches to city design will gain by encouraging healthier urban
dwellers -‐ reduced healthcare costs, increased produc4vity, more community resilience, improved life expectancy and fewer demands on health services.
Coopera-on Across Boundaries Ci4es need more joined-‐up coopera4ve government working, across systems and boundaries. This includes a focus on long-‐term benefits
to society, par4cularly with regard to planning and investment.
Public-‐Private City Partnerships To collec4vely address major urban challenges, as shown by Medellin in Colombia, governments increasingly openly collaborate with business to improve the ins4tu4onal fabric of ci4es as well as core infrastructure.
Safe Ci-es Urban dwellers expect their ci4es to be secure, leading to increased monitoring of human behaviour and surveillance to improve the sense of physical security but at the cost of increased fears over personal data and privacy breaches.
Ci-es as Products People-‐orientated transforma4on means that ci4zens are seen as the most essen4al stakeholder for urban development -‐ providing enhanced quality of life in ci4es through greater comfort, sa4sfac4on and sense of belonging.
In Need of Belonging Small communi4es exist in mega ci4es to provide a sense of community and social wellbeing. Looking ahead, the more responsive ci4es will
seek to enable communi4es to mould their neighbourhoods.
Pop-‐up Economies Crowd-‐sourcing will enable ‘pop-‐up economies’ where communi4es pool
resources and so reduce the need for government involvement. The downside is that communi4es create their own iden4ty making “them and us” obvious.
Infrastructure Responsibility What happens when the city becomes so transient that no one takes overall responsibility for its infrastructure? How can we get the same quality of infrastructure in rural communi4es as there is in ci4es?
Hub-‐hop For some, na4onal iden4ty is on the decline. Look out for the rise of ‘Hub-‐hops’ – city areas where cultures have merged and technology has advanced. These
urban districts are the homes from home for the nomadic global ci4zen.
Public Spaces Governments are pressured to ensure that public spaces are created and retained – Places where people can meet, congregate, relax, even
where land is valuable and constrained, are prized focal points for society.
Satellite Ci-es The growth of satellite ci4es and networks of midi-‐ci4es in many regions is
seen as a preferred route to more mega-‐city development. Connected by fast infrastructure, these act collec4vely economically but in a sustainable manner.
Waste Management As ci4es become ever more densely populated, new approaches to waste management will be introduced. Especially in fast-‐growing mega-‐ci4es, waste is seen as a resource and a source of energy.
Rural Upgrade Rather than focus so much on ci4es we will see some regions place more emphasis on upgrading rural infrastructure and connec4vity. This will help stem the drive of migra4on and urbanisa4on and rejuvenate village life.
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