fundamental analysis - microsoft · 2018. 7. 2. · july-september period and in line economists’...
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15/02/2016
Fundamental Analysis
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (February 15-20)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
Tentative CNY Trade Balance January 406B 389B 382B
2:00 pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:45 pm NZD Retail Sales QoQ Quarter 4 1.6%
TUESDAY
12:30 am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
9:30 am GBP CPI YoY January 0.2%
10:00 am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment February 10.2
1:30 pm CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM December 1.0%
WEDNESDAY
9:30 am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y December 2.0%
7:00 pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
THURSDAY
12:30 am AUD Unemployment Rate January 5.8%
1:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims February 13 269K
FRIDAY
9:30 am EUR Retail Sales MoM January -1.0%
1:30 pm CAD Core CPI MoM January -0.4%
1:30 pm USD Core CPI MoM January 0.1%
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
US While addressing Congress, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the central bank is unlikely to reverse its plan to hike interest rates further this year. The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on incoming economic data, and policy makers regularly reassess what level of the federal funds rate is consistent with reaching and maintaining maximum employment and 2% inflation. Financial conditions in the US have recently become less supportive of growth. "These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labour market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset. Foreign economic developments, in particular, pose risks to US economic growth." As recessions fears build in the US, Yellen did not excluded a "chance" of a downturn ahead. She also said that the Fed is studying whether negative interest rates would help in case conditions worsen further. Australia Testifying before the House of Representatives Economics Committee, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the Australian economy continued to grow at a sub-trend pace, but a weaker Aussie Dollar and easy monetary policy is supporting growth. Stevens stressed that further easing is possible if inflation slows and global headwinds threaten Australia's growth trajectory. The central bank head estimated that inflation is unlikely to cause near-term issues over the next two years though, partly due to the weakening Australian Dollar, which was tracking falling commodity prices. Like most other central banks, the RBA noted the elevated risks associated with recent market volatility. Stevens confirmed that rates are likely to remain steady for most or all of 2016. Japan Japan logged an 18th current account surplus in a row amid a plunge in crude oil imports and a travel surplus due to the Japanese Yen's depreciation. In the final month of 2015, Japan reported a current account surplus of 960.7 billion yen, compared with 225.9 billion yen a year earlier, according to the Finance Ministry. Trade exports increased 5.5% to 6.247 trillion yen, while imports dropped 2.2% to 6.059 trillion yen. In 2015, the nation's current account surplus surged more than six fold from the previous year to 16.64 trillion yen, with imports slumping 10.3%, while exports rose 1.5%.
Key highlights of the week ended February 12
EUR
“The preliminary release of Euro zone GDP in the fourth quarter of 2016 did not contain any breakdown of the expenditure side of GDP, but it looks certain that growth was once again reliant on domestic demand. Certainly net trade was negative for both Germany and France, and it likely was for Spain” - Howard Archer from IHS Economics
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 1.18 1.18 1.18
75% percentile 1.08 1.08 1.10
Median 1.05 1.05 1.05
25% percentile 1.03 1.01 1.02
MIN 0.99 0.95 0.95 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Euro zone’s economy growth unchanged at 0.3%; German economy accelerates
High
A December decline in Euro zone industrial production dragged economic growth in the currency bloc down, adding to arguments for further monetary easing. According to Eurostat, gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the Euro climbed 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of last year, unchanged from the July-September period and in line economists’ expectations. Measured on an annual basis, the Euro zone economy grew 1.5%. In the first two quarters of 2015, the quarterly growth rates were 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. In December the European Central Bank slightly revised its GDP growth forecasts to 1.5% in 2015, up 0.1% from September's forecast. The central bank predicted the Euro zone’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2016, unchanged from the previous outlook, while in 2017 growth is expected to book 1.9%, up from 1.8% seen previously. Meanwhile, the Euro zone’s largest economy accelerated its growth pace at the end of 2015, as strong domestic economic conditions largely offset the deteriorating economic environment overseas. Fourth quarter German GDP rose 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. For the whole of 2015 German GDP rose 1.7%. Also, the cost of living in Germany rose 0.5% in January compared to the same period a year ago
12.02 open price 12.02 close price % change
EUR/USD 1.1323 1.1256 -0.59%
EUR/GBP 0.78222 0.77615 -0.78%
EUR/CHF 1.10115 1.10059 -0.05%
EUR/JPY 127.29 127.46 +0.13%
USD
“We are watching developments very carefully. I would say there is always some chance of a recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.” - Janet Yellen, Fed Chairwoman
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 130 132 135
75% percentile 127 127 128
Median 125 125 125
25% percentile 122 123 122
MIN 115 115 113 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
US retail sales rise modestly in January High
US retail sales climbed slightly in January, rising for the third consecutive month, evidence that Americans kept shopping despite steep declines in equity prices. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month, the same as in December. Excluding the effect of falling gas prices, sales increased 0.4%. Americans boosted their purchases in January of autos, home supplies and groceries, and spent more online. Greater job security, rising wage growth and falling gasoline prices may be encouraging more consumers to loosen their purse strings after a fourth-quarter slowdown. A pickup in household purchases, which makes up the lion’s share of the economy, would help the US prevent the negative effects of a strengthening US Dollar, weak foreign demand and tumultuous financial markets. Continued improvement in the labour market is keeping Americans spending. US employers added 151,000 to payrolls in January after expanding headcounts by 262,000 the in the prior month. In addition to that, average hourly earnings increased 2.5% in the 12 months ended January following a 2.7% gain in December that was the most since 2009. Consumers are the engine that has been powering the US economy for the past two years as they account for roughly 70% of GDP.
12.02 open price 12.02 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.7109 0.7112 +0.04%
USD/CHF 0.9725 0.9771 +0.47%
USD/JPY 112.42 113.25 +0.74%
NZD/USD 0.6717 0.6627 -1.34%
JPY
“There’s a high chance that the BOJ may take additional easing at the next meeting in March” - Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 145 150 148
75% percentile 134 135 136
Median 131 131 131
25% percentile 129 127 128
MIN 121 117 117 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Japan’s economy shrinks in Q4 of 2015 amid weak household spending
High
Japan’s economy shrank in the final quarter of 2015 despite of more than three years of Abenomics programme aimed at rejuvenating the world’s third biggest economy. Japan’s economy contracted an annualized 1.4% in the three months through December as consumers refrained from spending, while exports to emerging markets failed to gather enough momentum to make up for weak domestic demand. The decline in gross domestic product appeared to be bigger than economists’ median forecast for a 1.2% drop and followed a revised 1.3% rise in the preceding quarter, according to Cabinet Office. Private consumption, which accounts for 60% of GDP, declined 0.8%, a sign Abe’s stimulus programme have so far failed to encourage households to spend. While domestic demand subtracted 0.5 percentage point from GDP growth, external demand, or net exports, added 0.1 point amid a decline in the value of imports triggered by plunging oil prices. Last month the Bank of Japan stunned markets by introducing a negative benchmark interest rate, in an attempt to stimulate the economy as volatile financial markets threatened its efforts to overcome deflation. Analysts expect the central bank to take additional easing at its next meeting in March, as the downside risks to the BoJ’s outlook for growth and inflation are increasing.
12.02 open price 12.02 close price % change
AUD/JPY 79.921 80.508 +0.73%
CAD/JPY 80.666 81.761 +1.36%
EUR/JPY 127.29 127.46 +0.13%
USD/JPY 112.42 113.25 +0.74%
CNY
“Globally there is a lack of demand and that is reflected in the Chinese statistics” - Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 0.80 0.79 0.81
75% percentile 0.71 0.71 0.71
Median 0.69 0.68 0.68
25% percentile 0.68 0.67 0.66
MIN 0.64 0.64 0.61 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
China’s trade contacts sharply in January amid weak global demand and slowdown at home
High
China’s trade shrank significantly more than economists had predicted in January, as the world’s second biggest economy continued to suffer from sluggish global demand and a slowdown at home. Exports dropped 11.2% to $177.5 billion, compared with the 1.4% decline reported in December. At the same time, imports plummeted 18.8% to $114.2 billion, following the previous month’s plunge of 7.6%, leaving a trade surplus of $63.3 billion. While steep drop in exports is worrying for China, the fall in imports reflects weaker global commodity prices as well as moribund demand. According to China’s customs agency, oil imports dropped 4.6% year-on-year in January, while coal imports plunged 9.2%. The recent data add to mounting worries about China and the pace the world’s second biggest economy is slowing. Last year the Chinese economy expanded at the slowest pace in 25 years, triggering equity prices crash, causing capital to flood out of China, and prompting policy makers to take monetary stimulus measures to avoid hard landing. Over the last six month the People’s Bank of China has devalued the Chinese Yuan sharply, causing a massive shock in global markets. Officials anticipate growth this year of between 6.5% and 7%.
12.02 open price 12.02 close price % change
AUD/JPY 79.921 80.508 +0.73%
AUD/USD 0.7109 0.7112 +0.04%
EUR/AUD 1.59284 1.58356 -0.58%
GBP/AUD 2.0365 2.0402 +0.18%
Monday, February 15, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events of the previous week (February 8-12)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
1:30 pm CAD Building Permits MoM December 11.3% 5.6% -19.9%
TUESDAY
12:30 am AUD NAB Business Confidence January 2 2
9:30 am GBP Trade Balance December -9.9B -10.4B -11.5B
3:00 pm USD JOLTS Job Openings December 5.61M 5.41M 5.35M
WEDNESDAY
9:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production MoM December -0.2% 0.0% -0.3%
3:00 pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
THURSDAY
1:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims February 6 269K 287K 285K
10:30 pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
FRIDAY
7:00 am EUR German Prelim GDP QoQ Quarter 4 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
1:30 pm USD Retail Sales MoM January 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
3:00 pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment February 90.7 92.6 92.0
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
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