a100%renewable

future

And Shale Gas?“Shale gas extraction brings a significant risk of ground and surface water contamination and until the evidence base is developed a precautionary approach to development in the UK and Europe is the only responsible action”.

“Without a meaningful cap on emissions of global GHGs, the exploitation of shale gas is likely to increase net carbon emissions”.

“Rapid carbon reductions require major investment in zero-carbon technologies and this could be delayed by exploitation of shale gas”.

Tyndall Centre, 2011

Groundwater

“Natural processes that help clean up groundwater, which take days or weeks in rivers and lakes, can take decades or centuries in groundwater”.

“Groundwater is vulnerable to contamination… 15% of groundwater bodies in Wales are at risk of failing to meet Water Framework Directive objectives because of pollution from mining”

Under Ground, Under Threat: Environment Agency, 2006

“We do not know as much about the condition of groundwater in minor aquifers, many of which are in Wales. Because of the limitations of the data, we do not know yet what the major issues are in Wales”.

The Shropshire Scheme

“The Secretary of State may prohibit an Assembly Bill if it might have a serious adverse impact on water resources in England, water supply in England”

“Groundwater is pumped from the sandstone aquifer that underlies much of north Shropshire into the River Severn”.

Under Ground, Under Threat: Environment Agency, 2006

“When all phases are complete an extra 225,000 m3 per day [enough for 1.4 million people]will be taken from the river for public supply”

Devolution Guidance Note, Wales Office, 2012

Waste Water

“Hazards include… spillage, storm water, failure of pit liner, pipework failure, insufficient storage capacity, overfilling, operator error”

“Each well… will generate between 1,300 and 23,000m3 of flowback waste fluid containing water, fracturing chemicals and subsurface contaminants (including toxic organic compounds, heavy metals and naturally occurring radioactive materials”.

Tyndall Centre, 2011

“the likelihood of pollution incidents associated with wider development of shale increase from the ‘possible’ end of the spectrum… through to the ‘probable’”

a100%renewable

future

“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius , which would have …

…devastating consequences for the planet.”

“We have 5 years to change the energy system…

…or have it changed”

Fatih Birol

IEA Chief Economist

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs

~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007

~ 5.9% 2009-2010

~ 3.2 % 2010-2011

(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)

Things are getting worse!

Global CO2 emission trends?

The State of Play

“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science”

Copenhagen Accord (2009)

Committee on Climate Change global budget has 56% chance of exceeding 2oC

UK Government adopts a pathway with a 63% chance of exceeding 2oC

The Challenge

CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous

climate change (2°C) It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon

budget) This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of

climate change from long term gradual reductions to urgent and radical reductions

UK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050EU 60%-80% 2050Bali 50% 2050

The Challenge

“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”

Anderson & Bows 2008

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Low DL

Low DH

Medium DL

Medium DH

High DL

High DH

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak

Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

Total Greenhouse Gas Emission PathwaysAR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issio

ns o

f C

O 2 a

lon

e (

GtC

O 2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 2015 peak Medium DL

2015 peak High DL

2015 peak High DH

2020 peak High DL

2020 peak High DH

Even then total

decarbonisation by

~2035-45

necessary

… and for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak)

13 of 18 scenarios

‘impossible’

10-20% annual reductions – even for a high probability of exceeding 2°CGlobally: no emission

space for coal, gas, or shale – even with CCS!

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future

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Growth 3.5% p.a

Peak 2025

Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!)

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Peak ~2010

Reduction ∞% p.a.

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

The Problems All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate

change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give negative emissions (geoengineering)

Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power

Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic Recent historical emissions massaged Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed Reduction rate universally dictated by economists Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers

and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”

And 4oC? Emissions must peak no later than 2020 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative At least it’s achievable…

The Downside For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean And an increase on the hottest days of:

6°C - 8°C in China 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe 10°C -12°C in New York

And in low latitudes 4°C gives up to 40% reduction in maize and rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

The SituationThere is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with an organised global community

is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’

is devastating to the majority of eco-systems

and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).

Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs

Energy Emissions 10% reduction year-on-year

Impossible?

Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of global population

Including *probably* everyone in this roomAnyone who ever sets foot on a planeAnyone in the UK earning over ~£30k

Wales leading the way

“Wales is a definite leader in promoting sustainable development”

Wales leading the way?Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar (normalised to 2003)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

EnglandNorthern IrelandScotlandWales

Wales leading the way?Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)

(MW per 1000 people)

a100%renewable

future

dim mwy o nwy

Slide 2 http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/coop_shale_gas_report_final_200111.pdfSlide 3 http://a0768b4a8a31e106d8b0-50dc802554eb38a24458b98ff72d550b.r19.cf3.rackcdn.com/geho0906bldb-e-e.pdfSlides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/ Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16 Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (with permission)Slide 6 http://ecowatch.org/2012/fracking-water-pollution-risk/Slide 10 http://www.grabandtiplittlehampton.co.uk/Slide 24 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/25/jonathon-porritt-wales-is-a-definite-leader-in-promoting-sustainable-development-91466-31898347/Slide 29 http://www.climate-justice-now.org/leave-it-in-the-ground-cop17-illustration/

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