climate change and wales

Farmers’ Union of Wales

The Voice of Welsh FarmingNewid Hinsawdd a Chymru

Effects of Climate Change on

Wales and its People

Effeithiau Newid Hinsawdd ar

Gymru a’i Phobl

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BACKGROUND: THE PERFECT STORM

• CLIMATE CHANGE

• World populations will rise to between nine and ten

billion by 2050

• Global agricultural productivity per hectare is expected

to fall by between 3 and 16 percent by 2080

• Peak Oil

• Rise in demand for water

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DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WALES

URBAN COMMUNITIES RURAL COMMUNITIES

weather extremes

harvest extremes

increased commodity prices

CIVIL UNREST/WAR

Displacement of Populations

Immigration



PAST EXPERIENCE1939 – 45: 2nd World War

• Pre 1939 Britain imported around 55 million tons

• Nazi-occupied Jersey - children's growth

stunted by two and a half inches

• Starvation on mainland Europe was widespread

• European agriculture crippled

• No guaranteed food supplies



CAP

Priority for all European countries was

I. Peace

II. A stable supply of affordable food

III. A viable agricultural sector

RESULT:

UK EUROPE

1947 Agriculture Act 1957 Treaty of Rome defines

1973 Britain joins the EEC the objectives of a common

agricultural policy

1962 CAP comes into force

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2007/8 FOOD SHORTAGES

Bangladesh Brazil Burkina Faso Cameroon

Côte d'Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Haiti India

Indonesia Mexico Mozambique Pakistan

Myanmar Panama Philippines Russia Senegal

Somalia Tajikistan Yemen Ukraine USA

protests • rioting • export quotas • export bans •

rationing • increase in food bank use

CONFLICT!



2nd MARCH 2011

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CONFLICT CLOSER TO HOME: MITIGATION



CONFLICT CLOSER TO HOME: MITIGATION



Yr Estron

Roedd rhuddgoch wawr y rhedynHyd lethrau gwyllt Moel Goch,A'r llwyni criafol dan eu llwythUwch ceunant Nant y Moch.Ond darfu'r hen gymdeithas,Diadell deg a roedYn aberth ar allorau gwiwDrachwantus dduwiau'r coed

Doi awel bêr o'r eigion,A'r heli ar ei minO ddyffryn Rhyd y Forwyn drawA ffriddoedd Gelli Grin.Ond darfu'r hen draddodiadGwastrodwyd yr hen ffyrddGan ddeiliaid Sgandinafia bellMae'r fro dan gwrlid gwyrdd

Ni welaf mwy un bugailYn adwy Bwlch y gwynt.Darfyddodd swyn y filltir sgwârA'm noddodd ddyddiau gyntA chlywaf gri y gigfranA grawciodd er cyn cofA thystia'i galwad cras yn glirI estron hawlio'r fro.

Morris J. Morris

The Alien

The dawn crimson of the brackenWas over the wild slopes of Moel Goch,

And the mountain ash groves under their loadAbove the ravines of Nant y Moch.

But the old community was scatteredThe fair flock given

As a sacrifice on the worthy altarOf the coveting gods of the trees

A pure breeze from the ocean came,The salt water on her lips

From the valley of Rhyd y ForwynAnd the sloping pastures of Gelli Grin.

But the old tradition was scatteredThe old ways were erased

By the natives of faraway ScandinaviaThe region is under a green blanket

No more will we see the shepherdIn Bwlch y Gwynt pass.

Ended is the charm of the square mileThat nurtured me in former days

And I hear the cry of the ravenThat's cawed since before memory

Its harsh call clearly testifiesThat an alien has the region.

Morris J. Morris

Y DIWEDD

THE END

climate change and wales

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