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    FormulaeFinal Examination

    Financial Accounting and FinancialStatement Analysis

    Equity Valuation and Analysis

    Corporate Finance

    Economics

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    Copyright ACIIA

    Table of Contents

    1. Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis 1

    1.1 Generally Accepted Accounting Principles: Assets, Liabilitiesand Shareholders Equities............................................................................1

    1.1.1 Assets: Recognition, Valuation and Classification ................................... 1

    1.2 Financial Reporting and Financial Statement Analysis .........................1

    1.2.1 Earning per Share............................................................................................... 1

    1.3 Analytical tools for Assessing Profitability and Risk .............................2

    1.3.1 Profitability Analysis.......................................................................................... 2

    1.3.2 Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................... 5

    1.3.3 Break-Even Analysis.......................................................................................... 6

    2. Equity Valuation and Analysis 72.1 Valuation Model of Common Stock .............................................................7

    2.1.1 Dividend Discount Model ................................................................................. 7

    2.1.2 Free Cash Flow Model ....................................................................................... 8

    2.1.3 Measures of Relative Value.............................................................................. 8

    3. Corporate Finance 9

    3.1 Fundamentals of Corporate Finance ...........................................................9

    3.1.1 Discounted Cash Flow ...................................................................................... 9

    3.1.2 Capital Budgeting............................................................................................... 9

    3.2 Short-Term Finance Decisions....................................................................14

    3.2.1 Short-Term Financing...................................................................................... 14

    3.2.2 Cash Management............................................................................................ 14

    3.3 Capital Structure and Dividend Policy ......................................................16

    3.3.1 Leverage and the Value of the Firm ............................................................. 16

    4. Economics 18

    4.1 Macroeconomics.............................................................................................18

    4.1.1 Measuring National Income and Prices ...................................................... 18

    4.1.2 Equilibrium in the Real Market ...................................................................... 19

    4.1.3 Equilibrium in the Money Market.................................................................. 21

    4.1.4 Aggregate Supply and Determination of Price of Goods/Services..... 22

    4.2 Macro Dynamics..............................................................................................23

    4.2.1 Inflation ............................................................................................................... 23

    4.2.2 Economic Growth............................................................................................. 23

    4.2.3 Business Cycles ............................................................................................... 24

    4.3 International Economy and Foreign Exchange Market ........................24

    4.3.1 Open Macro Economics.................................................................................. 244.3.2 Foreign Exchange Rate................................................................................... 27

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    4.3.3 Central Bank and Monetary Policy............................................................... 29

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

    Copyright ACIIA page 1

    1. Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

    1.1 Generally Accepted Accounting Principles: Assets, Liabilities andShareholders Equities

    1.1.1 Assets: Recognition, Valuation and Classification

    1.1.1.1 Property, Plant, Equipment and Intangible Assets

    Depreciation Methods

    Straight Line Method

    Depreciation per Year = (Original Cost Salvage Value) / Useful Life

    Accelerated Method

    - Double-Declining-Balance-Depreciation

    Depreciation = 2Straight Line Rate Book Value at the Beginning of the Year

    where:

    straight line rate = 1 / Estimated Useful Life

    - Sum-of-the-Years Method (SYD)

    Depreciation = (Original Cost Salvage Value) Applicable Fraction

    where:

    Applicable Fraction = number of years of estimated useful life remaining / SYD,where

    2

    1)(nnSYD

    +=

    and n= estimated useful life

    1.2 Financial Reporting and Financial Statement Analysis

    1.2.1 Earning per Share

    1.2.1.1 Calculation of EPS

    goutstandinstockcommonofsharesofNumber

    ersstockholdcommonthetoavailableEarningsEPS =

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    With a change in the number of shares outstanding during the year, the formula ismodified as follows:

    goutstandinsharescommonofnumberaverageWeighted

    ersstockholdcommonthetoavailableEarningsEPS =

    1.2.1.2 Using EPS to Value Firms

    - Constant Dividend Growth Model (Gordon-Shapiro)

    g)(k

    g)(1EPSP

    e

    00

    +=

    where:

    P0 initial market priceg growth rateke cost of equity payout ratioEPS0 earning per share in t = 0

    1.3 Analytical tools for Assessing Profitability and Risk

    1.3.1 Profitability Analysis

    1.3.1.1 Return on Assets

    Annual Return

    capitalInvested

    profitAnnualturnReAnnual =

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    Return on Assets

    ROA = return on assets =Assets

    (EBIT)taxandinterestsbeforeEarnings

    ROA =Sales

    EBIT

    Assets

    Sales= EMR ATR

    where:

    EMR = economic margin ratio =Sales

    EBIT

    ATR = asset turnover ratio =Assets

    Sales

    Return on Total Assets

    assetsTotal

    EBITROTA =

    Return on Operating Assets

    ROOA = assetsOperating

    OEBIT

    Return on Non-Operating Assets

    RONOA =assetsOperatingAssets

    OEBITEBIT

    where:

    OEBIT operating earnings before interests and taxROOA return on operating assetsRONOA return on non-operating assets

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    Let ROTA be an average return of the two parts:

    ROTA = ROOA x1 + RONOA x2

    where:

    x1 weight of the operating assets (Operating assets/Total assets)x2 weight of the non-operating assets (x2= 1 x1)

    1.3.1.2 ROCE

    Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Common Equity (ROCE)

    ROE =Equity

    ProfitNet=

    Equity

    Interest)-t)(EBIT-(1

    which can be written:

    ROEbT)t1(

    Equtiy

    Debt)iROA(ROA)t1(

    Equity

    Debti

    Equity

    DebtEquityROA)t1(

    Equity

    DebtiAssetsROA)t1(

    Equity

    InterestEBIT)t1(ROE

    =

    +=

    +=

    =

    =

    ROEcan be decomposed as follows:

    ROE =

    taxbeforeEarning

    profitNet

    EBIT

    taxbeforeEarning

    Sales

    EBIT

    Assets

    Sales

    Equity

    Assets

    where:

    i average interest rate on total debts =Interest expenses

    Total debts

    EBIT earnings before interests and taxt corporate tax rate

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    Return on Equity before Tax

    ROEbT =Equity

    EBT= ROA + (ROA i)

    Equity

    Debt

    where:

    i average interest rate on total debts =Interest expenses

    Total debts

    EBT earnings before income tax

    1.3.2 Risk Analysis

    1.3.2.1 Short-Term Liquidity Risk

    Current Ratio

    sliabilitieCurrent

    assetsCurrent

    Quick Ratio

    sliabilitieCurrent

    Inventory-assetsCurrent or

    sliabilitieCurrentsReceivable+ssecuritieMarketable+Cash

    Working Capital Activity Ratio

    CapitalWorkingAverage

    revenueSales

    1.3.2.2 Long-Term Solvency Risk

    Debt Ratio

    Equity

    Debt

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    Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis

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    Interest Coverage Ratio

    ExpensesInterest

    EBIT

    1.3.3 Break-Even Analysis

    Break-even volume =m

    F

    where:

    s unit sales pricev unit variable costsF fixed cost during a periods - v = m unit contribution margin

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    Equity Valuation and Analysis

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    2. Equity Valuation and Analysis

    2.1 Valuation Model of Common Stock

    2.1.1 Dividend Discount Model

    2.1.1.1 Zero Growth Model

    Ek

    DivP =0

    where

    P0 price of shareDiv dividend (assumed constant)kE cost of equity capital

    2.1.1.2 Constant Growth Model

    Constant Dividend Growth Model

    gk

    DivP

    E

    1

    0

    =

    where

    P0

    price of share

    Div1 )1(0 gDiv + = expected dividend in period 1

    kE cost of equity capitalg growth rate of dividend (assumed constant)

    Gordon Shapiro Model

    rk

    EPSP

    E

    =

    )1(

    10

    where

    P0 price of shareEPS1 earnings per share in t= 1

    payout ratiokE cost of equity capital

    1 earnings retention rater return on equity (ROE)

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    2.1.2 Free Cash Flow Model

    Net Income (Net Profit)

    Net Sales

    Cost of goods sold

    Selling, general + administrative expenses

    Depreciation

    = EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes

    Interest

    = EBT = Earnings before taxes

    Taxes

    = Net Income

    Free Cash Flows (FCF)

    Earnings from operations before interest and taxes (EBIT)

    Taxes (calculated as EBIT tax rate)

    + non cash relevant expenses (depreciation, provisions for doubtful debt,etc.)

    non cash relevant revenues (adjustments for currency changes, etc.)

    = Gross cash flow

    Increase in net working capital

    + Reduction in net working capital

    Capital expenditure (buildings, equipment, )

    + Liquidation of fixed assets

    = Free cash flow from operations

    2.1.3 Measures of Relative Value

    2.1.3.1 Price Earnings Ratio

    E

    PEPSP =0

    where

    P0 price of the shareEPS earnings per share

    P/E price-earnings ratio

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    Corporate Finance

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    3. Corporate Finance

    3.1 Fundamentals of Corporate Finance

    3.1.1 Discounted Cash Flow

    The present value of an annuity is given by

    +=

    +=

    =n

    1tt

    )k1(

    11

    k

    CF

    )k1(

    CFnluePresent va

    where

    CF constant cash flowk discount rate, assumed to be constant over timen number of cash flows

    The future value of an annuity is given by

    +=

    k

    1)k1(CF

    n

    valueFuture

    where

    CF constant cash flow

    k discount rate, assumed to be constant over timen number of cash flows

    3.1.2 Capital Budgeting

    3.1.2.1 Investment Decision Criteria

    Net Present Value

    NPV = ( )( )= +

    +N

    1tt

    t

    t

    0WACC1

    FCFEI

    where

    I0 initial investment

    )FCF(E t expected free cash flows in period t

    tWACC weighted average cost of capital in period t

    N number of cash flowsNPV Net Present Value

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    Corporate Finance

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    3.1.2.2 Cost of Capital

    Cost of Equity Capital

    CAPM

    )EfMfE RRRk +=

    where

    kE cost of equity capitalRf risk-free returnRM RF expected return on the market portfolio risk-free return,

    expected Risk premium

    E beta equity = systematic or market risk of equity

    The beta equity (E) can be calculated using the following formula:

    E)t1(D

    E

    E)t1(D

    )t1(D

    c

    E

    c

    c

    DA+

    ++

    =

    where

    A beta assetD beta debtE beta equity

    tc marginal corporate tax rate for the firm being valuedD market value of interest-bearing debtE market value of equity

    If we assume that the debt is riskless ( D = 0) the beta of the firms asset can be

    written as:

    E)t1(D

    E

    c

    EA+

    =

    In this case, the beta equity ( E ) can be written as:

    ( )

    +=E

    Dt11 cAE

    with

    beta asset = UnleveredA =

    beta equity = LeveredE =

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    Corporate Finance

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    Modigliani-Miller

    E

    DT))(1k(kkk duuE +=

    wherekE cost of equity (required return on equity)ku equity rate of return were the company 100% equitykd cost of debt (required return on debt)T statutory marginal tax rateD debt (market value)E equity (market value)

    Zero Growth Model

    0

    EP

    Divk =

    where

    kE cost of equity capitalDiv dividend (assumed constant)P0 price of share

    Constant Growth Model

    gP

    Divk

    0

    1

    E +=

    where

    kE cost of equity capitalg growth rate of dividend

    Div1 )1(0 gDiv + = expected dividend in period 1

    P0 market price of share

    Earnings-Price Ratio Approach

    P

    EPSk 1E =

    where

    kE cost of equity capitalEPS1 expected earnings per share in t=1P current market price of share

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    Corporate Finance

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    Gordon Shapiro Model

    ROEP

    EPSkE +

    = )1(

    0

    1

    where

    kE cost of equity capitalEPS1 earnings per share in t=1

    payout ratioP0 price of shareROE return on equity

    Cost of Debt Capital

    Cost of Debt Capital before Taxes

    - CAPM

    DfMfD RRRk +=

    where

    kD cost of debt capital (expected return on debt)Rf risk-free returnRM Rf expected excess return on the market portfolio

    D beta debt = systematic or market risk of debt

    - Yield to Maturity

    =

    =N

    iiiD YTMwk

    1

    where

    kD cost of debt capitalwi weight of debt iYTMi yield to maturity of debt i

    Cost of Debt Capital after Taxes

    )t1(kk cDDA =

    where

    kDA cost of debt capital after taxeskD cost of debt capital before taxestc marginal corporate tax rate

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    Corporate Finance

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    Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

    WACC= ( )V

    Ek

    V

    Dt1k EcD +

    wherekD pre (corporate) tax cost of debtkE cost of equity

    ct marginal corporate tax rate for the entity being valued

    D market value of interest-bearing debtE market value of equityV =E + D

    If the firm has preferred stock, WACCbecomes:

    WACC= ( )VPk

    VEk

    VDtk PEcD ++1

    where

    kP after tax cost of preferred stock

    P market value of preferred stockV = E + D + P(here)

    Corporate Taxes, Interest Subsidy and Cost of Capital

    Average Tax Rate

    t = average tax rate =Taxes

    Earnings before taxes

    Average Interest Rate

    i= average interest rate =Debt

    paymentsInterest

    Value of Tax Shield

    Value of tax shield= cD

    cD tDk

    tDk=

    where

    D market value of debtkD cost of debttc marginal average corporate tax rate

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    Corporate Finance

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    3.2 Short-Term Finance Decisions

    3.2.1 Short-Term Financing

    3.2.1.1 Current Asset Financing

    Net Working Capital

    Net Working Capital = Current assets Current liabilities

    where

    Current assets= cash + receivable + inventories

    3.2.2 Cash Management

    Inventory Turnover

    Cost of goods sold

    Inventory

    Accounts Receivable Turnover

    Sales

    Accounts receivable

    Accounts Payable Turnover

    Material purchases

    Accounts payable

    Inventory Period

    365 (or 360) days

    Inventory turnover

    Accounts Receivable Period

    365 (or 360) days

    Accounts receivable turnover

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    Corporate Finance

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    Accounts Payable Period

    365 (or 360) days

    Accounts payable turnover

    Operating Cycle

    Inventory period + Accounts receivable period

    Cash Conversion Cycle

    Operating Cycle - Accounts payable period

    Average Collection Period

    Sales

    365ReceivableAccounts

    Optimal Cash Balance (Baumol Model)

    I

    2FC

    whereF fixed cost incurred when selling securities to raise cashC annual cash disbursementI annual interest earned on the marketable securities portfolio

    Target Cash Balance (Miller-Orr model)

    LI4

    F3ZBalanceCashTarget

    3

    1

    daily

    2

    +

    ==

    where

    F fixed cost of buying and selling securities

    2 variance of the net daily cash flowsL lower control limit, determined by the firmIdaily opportunity cost of holding cash

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    Corporate Finance

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    3.3 Capital Structure and Dividend Policy

    3.3.1 Leverage and the Value of the Firm

    Free Cash Flow Approach

    V =( )

    ( )= +

    +N

    tt

    t

    t

    WACC

    FCFI

    10

    1

    E

    where

    V value of the firm

    )( tFCFE expected free cash flows in period t

    tWACC weighted average cost of capital in period t

    With the continuing value (terminal value) of the firm at time Tequal to:

    Continuing value at timegWACC

    FCFT 1T

    = +

    where

    T point in time where the explicit free cash flow forecasting horizonends

    FCFT+1 level of expected free cash flow in the first year after the explicitforecast period; then assumed to grow at rate g

    WACC weighted average cost of capital (assumed constant)g expected growth rate of free cash flows after T (assumed

    constant)

    Firm Value

    EDV +=

    whereV value of the firmD debt (market values)E equity (market values)

    MM Proposition I (assuming no taxes)

    A

    ULk

    EBITE =DVVV +===

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    where

    VL value of levered firmVU value of unlevered firmD debt (market values)E equity (market values)EBIT earning before interest and taxes (assumed permanent)kA constant overall cost of capital (return on assets)

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    4. Economics

    4.1 Macroeconomics

    4.1.1 Measuring National Income and Prices

    GNP

    ( ) NIRAMXGICY ++++=

    where:

    Y GNPC private consumptionI investmentG government expenditureX exports

    M importsNIRA net income received from abroad

    MX +NIRA current account balance

    National Saving and Current Account Balance

    IBDS

    ISSCA

    P

    GP

    =

    +=

    where

    CA current account balanceP

    S private savingG

    S government savingGP

    SS + national saving (S)BD budget deficitI investment

    Price Index: GDP (implicit price) Deflator and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    100qp

    qp100

    GDPReal

    GDPNominaldeflatorGDP

    i it

    *

    i

    it itit

    t

    tt

    ==

    100qp

    qpCPI

    i

    *

    i

    *

    i

    i

    *

    iit

    t

    =

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    where

    itp price of final good or service iin year t

    itq quantity of final good or service iin year t*

    ip price of final good or service iin the base year*

    iq quantity of final good or service iin the representative basket

    Inflation Rate

    -1t

    -1ttt

    P

    PP =

    where

    tP (index) price level at time t

    1tP (index) price level at time t-1

    t inflation rate over period t-1 to t

    Ex-post Fisher Parity

    ttt ir

    where

    tr real interest rate for the period (t-1, t)

    ti nominal interest rate for the period (t-1, t)

    t inflation rate for the period (t-1, t)

    4.1.2 Equilibrium in the Real Market

    Consumption Function

    C = c0+ c1(Y-T)

    where:

    C desired consumption

    0c constant intercept term

    c1 marginal propensity to consume (MPC)Y-T disposable income

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    Investment Function

    YdrddY)I(r, 210 +=

    where:

    I demand for investmentd0 autonomous investmentd1, d2 positive parametersr real interest rateY output

    Budget Surplus

    ( )NINTTRGTBS ++=

    where:

    BS budget surplusT taxationTR transfer paymentsNINT net interest payments on public debtG government expenditure

    Government-Purchases Multiplier

    )()

    rd-Tc-Gdcd(c-1

    1Y

    110021

    +++

    =

    where:

    Y output

    0c constant intercept term (from the consumption function)

    c1 marginal propensity to consumed0 autonomous investmentd1, d2 positive parameters (from the investment function)G government expenditureT taxation

    r real interest rate

    )21 d(c-1

    1

    +government-purchases multiplier

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    Equilibrium Condition for the Market for Goods and Services (Closedeconomy)

    I + G = SP+T

    where:

    I investmentG government expenditureSP private sector savingsT taxation

    IS Relation (Closed economy)

    Y = Z= C(Y-T) + I(r,Y) + G

    where:

    Y outputZ demand for goods and servicesC(.) private consumption function

    YT disposable incomeI(.) investment functionr realinterest rateG government expenditure

    4.1.3 Equilibrium in the Money Market

    Demand for Money

    ,),( 210 ibYbbiYLP

    MD+==

    where:

    MD nominal money demandP general price levelL(.) demand functionY real income (output)i nominal interest rate

    0b constant parameter

    21 ,bb positive parameters

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    Equilibrium Relationship in the Monetary Market: LM Curve

    MS

    P

    MD

    PL Y i= ( , ),

    where:

    MS nominal money supply (exogenous)MD nominal money demandP general price levelL(.) demand functionY real income (output)i nominal interest rate

    Quantity Theory of Money (Absolute Form)

    M V P Y

    PM V

    Y

    =

    =

    ,

    ,

    where:

    M quantity of moneyV velocity, a measure of turnover of money stock in a yearP general price levelY real income (output)

    4.1.4 Aggregate Supply and Determination of Price of Goods/Services

    Aggregate Supply Relation (short-run)

    P =E(P)(1+)F(1Y

    L,z),

    where:

    P price levelE(P) expected price level

    markup variableF(.) functionY outputL labor forcez catchall variable

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    4.2 Macro Dynamics

    4.2.1 Inflation

    Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve

    ,*tte

    tt uu +=

    where:

    t inflation ratee

    t expected inflation rate for time t

    constant parameter constant positive parameter

    *

    tt uu cyclical unemployment (or Keynesian unemployment) at time t

    4.2.2 Economic Growth

    Aggregate Production Function

    ( ),,LKFAY =

    where:

    Y aggregate outputA total factor productivity

    F(.) aggregate production functionL aggregate labour supplyK aggregate capital stock

    Growth Accounting Equation

    Y

    Y

    A

    A

    K

    K

    L

    LK L= + + ,

    where:

    YY growth of the output

    A

    Agrowth in productivity

    K

    Kgrowth of the capital stock

    L

    Lgrowth of the labour supply

    ( )( )K

    LKF

    LKF

    KK

    =

    ,

    , elasticity of output with respect to capital

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    ( )( )L

    LKF

    LKF

    LL

    =

    ,

    , elasticity of output with respect to labour

    4.2.3 Business Cycles

    Random Productivity Shocks

    ( ) ,, ttttt ALKFY =

    where:

    Yt aggregate output at time tF(.) aggregate function productionKt, Lt aggregate capital and labour supply at time t

    t random productivity shock at time t

    tt

    A total factor productivity at time t

    4.3 International Economy and Foreign Exchange Market

    4.3.1 Open Macro Economics

    4.3.1.1 International Balance of Payment and Capital Flows

    Balance of Payments Accounting

    ,RAKACABP +=

    where:

    BP balance of paymentsCA current accountKA capital accountRA official reserve account

    Government-Purchases Multiplier in an Open Economy

    GmSd(c-1

    1Y

    1real21

    +

    =)

    where:

    Y variation of the outputm1 positive constant parameter (marginal propensity to import)c1 marginal propensity to consumed2 positive parameters (from the investment function)Sreal real exchange rateG variation of the government expenditure

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    IS Relation in an Open Economy

    Y C I G S M X real= + + + ,

    where:

    Y outputC private consumptionI investmentG government expenditureSreal real exchange rateX exportsM imports in foreign currency

    Equilibrium Condition for the Goods and Services Market in an OpenEconomy

    in terms of GDP:

    NX S T G I = + ( ) ,

    in terms of GNP:CA S T G I = + ( ) ,

    where:

    NX net exportsCA current account balanceS private saving

    TG public savingI investment

    Real Exchange Rate

    SS P

    Preal

    n

    F

    =

    ,

    where:

    Sn nominal spot exchange rate (in American terms)FP foreign general price level in foreign currency

    P domestic general price level in domestic currency

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    Trade Balance and Depreciation: the Marshall-Lerner Condition

    .0>real

    real

    SS

    MM

    XX

    where:

    X

    Xproportional change in exports

    M

    Mproportional change in imports

    S

    S

    real

    real

    proportional change in the real exchange rate

    Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy, the Mundell-Fleming Model

    )ii1

    )E(S,YNX(Y,GY)I(r,T)C(YY

    F

    nF

    ++++= ,

    MS

    P

    MD

    PL Y i= = ( , ).

    where:

    Y outputC(.) consumptionT taxation

    I(.) investment functioni,r (domestic) nominal and real interest rateG government expenditureNX(.) net exports functionYF output in the rest of the world

    iF foreign nominal interest rate

    E(Sn) expected nominal spot exchange rate (in American terms)MS nominalmoney supplyMD nominalmoney demandP general price level

    L(.) demand function

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    Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy (for the Mundell-Fleming Modelwith Fixed Exchange Rate)

    )P

    PS,YNX(Y,G))E(I(iT)C(YAD

    Fn

    F

    +++=

    where:

    C(.) consumption functionY domestic output (income)T taxationI(.) investment functioni domestic nominal interest rate

    E() expected inflationG government expenditureNX(.) net exports functionYF foreign output (income)

    Sn nominal fixed exchange rateP, PF domestic and foreign prices level

    4.3.2 Foreign Exchange Rate

    Absolute Purchasing Power Parity

    ,F

    t

    t

    tP

    PS =

    where:

    tS nominal spot exchange rate at tF

    tP foreign general price level in foreign currency at t

    tP domestic general price level in domestic currency at t

    Relative Purchasing Power Parity

    ( )

    ( ),1

    1

    1

    S

    SSs

    F

    ttF

    t

    t

    1t

    1tt

    t

    +

    +=

    =

    where:

    ts relative spot exchange rate over period t-1 to t

    St nominal spot exchange rate at tF

    t foreign inflation rate over period t-1 to t

    t domestic inflation rate over period t-1 to t

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    Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP)

    ,ii1i1

    i11

    S

    FF

    ttF

    t

    t

    1t

    t,1t +

    +=

    where:

    11

    ,1

    t

    tt

    S

    Frelative forward foreign exchange rate premium

    ttF ,1 forward foreign exchange rate over period t-1 to t

    St1 nominal spot exchange rate at t-1F

    ti foreign nominal interest rate over period t-1 to t

    ti domestic nominal interest rate over period t-1 to t

    Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)

    ( ),ii1

    i1

    i11

    S

    SE FttF

    t

    t

    1t

    t +

    +=

    where:

    ( )1

    1

    t

    t

    SSE

    expected relative depreciation of the domestic currency

    F

    ti foreign nominal interest rate over period t-1 to t

    ti domestic nominal interest rate over period t-1 to t

    Monetary Approach

    s = (p pF) = (ms msF) (y yF) + (li liF)

    where:s logarithm of the spot exchange rate,p, pF the logarithm of the domestic and foreign price levelsms,msF logarithm of the domestic and foreign money suppliesy, yF logarithm of the domestic and foreign real incomesli, liF logarithm of the domestic and foreign interest rates

    , are income and interest rate elasticities.

    Portfolio Balance Approach

    The nominal portfolio wealths of the home and foreign private sectors:

    w= MS + B + Sn F,

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    w*= MS* + B*1

    Sn+ F*,

    where B + B*= B , F + F*= F, and where:

    w, w* the nominal portfolio wealths of the home and foreign private sectorsMS, MS*home and foreign money supply, which is assumed to consist only of

    monetary base

    B , F respectively denote the privately-held stocks of interest bearingclaims on the home and foreign governments, referred to as bonds orsecurities

    B*, F* foreign residents privately-held stocks of interest bearing claims onthe home and foreign governments

    B, F home residents privately-held stocks of interest bearing claims on thehome and foreign governments

    Sn nominal exchange rate

    The Risk Premium

    t = it *ti ( )

    1

    11

    t

    ttt

    SSSE

    ,

    where:

    i, i* the domestic and foreign interest ratesEt-1(.) expectation at time t-1

    represents a premium for bearing a composite of exchange rate riskand the difference in credit risks

    St nominal exchange rate at time t

    4.3.3 Central Bank and Monetary Policy

    Money Multiplier

    M1 = mM0, with m= ++

    cc1 ,

    where:

    M1 money stock M1

    m money multiplierM0 monetary basec the ratio of the demand for currency to the demand for sight deposit

    the ratio of reserves to sight deposits