foresight scenarios for pcc during and after the pandemic · reinvent academic offerings dolores...

Strategy, Analytics and Research, April 24, 2020 (N. Richmond)

Foresight scenarios for PCC during and after the pandemic Date: April 24, 2020

1. Big-picture considerations

2. College-wide impacts

3. Factors that will impact different offerings in different ways

4. Scenario parameters

5. Scenarios

6. Sandbox

7. Priorities for the near through long term

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Big-picture considerations

Economic impacts - Up to a third of Americans may become unemployed - Gross domestic product could drop up to 24% - Significant impacts in areas such as retail, travel, leisure - Economic recovery rate is very unclear and could follow one of several trends (U, V, W, check-mark)

Social impacts - Increasing visibility of inequities, with disproportionate impacts of the virus on some populations - Changing perceptions of social gatherings and interactions - Wellness implications, including mental health - Family and personal health concerns - Increasing food insecurity

Educational impacts - Concerns about attending distant universities - Online vs virtual vs traditional offerings - Increased competition (both across education providers and with employers)

False sense of security - In the Spanish Flu, the second wave was the most serious - Even if our summer reduces the rate of infection, the virus will continue to be a threat until there is either a vaccine or effective, ongoing social distancing measures - We cannot allow ourselves to be lulled into a false sense of security over the coming months

2


Metrics to monitor

Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/risk/our%20insights/covid%2019%20implications %20for% 20business/covid%2019%20march%2025/covid-19-facts-and-insights-march-25-v3.ashx

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https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/risk/our%20insights/covid%2019%20implications


Factors that will impact the full College

Duration of pandemic: Ongoing health and financial impacts will likely result in enrollment reductions Increasing health, across the College economic and travel issues/limitations

Employee concerns Employee morale may drop due to the wide range of stresses in the current (health, family, pay) reality. For some, working remotely cannot be done at full capacity, which will

also have impacts.

New student capture High school changes this spring may negatively impact our new to higher rate education cohort. It may be harder to connect with other potential students when

we cannot be physically present.

Financial impacts Dr. David Bea has separate materials on this topic

Space needs The impact of this is neutral as it is an opportunity to make positive changes to our space utilization

Ability to deliver on We need to reassess priorities as the pandemic represents a major situational existing priorities change. While this presents opportunities; change can be difficult. In the current

situation, rapidly pivoting from one priority to something different may be harder to achieve.

Future direction of the The overarching direction of the College needs to be assessed, to ensure the College institution is meeting the needs of the community during the pandemic and is well

aligned for the future.

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Spotlight on While not a positive in itself, through the cases of COVID-19, it has become clear inequalities that individuals from minority race/ethnicity populations have been more strongly

impacted. As a social justice organization, these developments shine a spotlight on inequity in our community and provide strong evidence of a need for change.

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Factors that will impact different offerings in varying ways

Online General

education CTE Workforce Adult education Dual

enrollment International Inability to offer in-person sections: Likely in the short to medium term, though there are some possibilities

Ability to offer in-person sections: Likely in the long term, potentially over a year from now

Community concerns about spread of the virus (e.g. comfort being on campus for any services or courses we are able to provide in-person)

Needs of displaced workers and support for local employers

Ongoing instructional restrictions at the high schools

6


Scenarios

The scenarios are tentative and will evolve over time. It is unclear how the pandemic will play out and there are a lot of unknowns, both in terms of how the situation will develop and how people will react. We cannot wait for the situation to resolve, we need to determine routes forward now and adjust as needed.

Considering four archtypes

We are considering four archtypes from the Institute for the Future:

- Growth: An extrapolation of trends continue into the future with minimal disruption - Constraint: A core guiding value or purpose organizes society and governs behavior - Collapse: A rapid, catastrophic systems and infrastructure break down - Transformation: Society or systems fundamentally change or reorganize around a new paradigm

Ongoing monitoring and assessment of signals and drivers

Leveraging processes from the Institute for the Future, we are monitoring:

- Drivers of change: The big forces reshaping today’s landscape into something new - Signals: Small or local innovations with the potential to disrupt the status quo, or scale up in size or geography

Data collection in progress

Extensive data gathering is underway to try to understand how enrollment may be impacted in summer and fall. This includes:

- Return rate of students to virtual classes - Grade book tracking to assess success (pre and post virtual transition) - Registration trend for summer (and then fall) - Student surveys on current needs/challenges - Student survey on educational plans for next academic year

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Sandbox

There are a number of factors that will impact enrollment and those factors may look different for different students and class types.

For example, by looking at the proportion of students who returned after spring break to non-online courses, we know that we lost a higher proportation of male students and a higher proportion of older students (55 and older).

This may give us clues about what may happen in fall, though it may also relate to the ways in which different courses were impacted by the switch to virtual during Spring 2020.

There is a strong likelihood that our enrollment will be impacted differently for different course modalities.

The following scenario calculates the enrollment and FTSE impact for different changes based on modality. The column labeled "scenario multiplier" indicates the change from fall 2019 values. For example:

- A positive value indicates growth - A value of 0 indicates no change - A negative value indicates a decline

We do not know what the exact changes will be. This provides a simple example of the sandbox we are developing to test the impact of different changes. This will both help us plan for fall 2020 and also enable us to assess what the impact may be if we engage in, for example, outreach for a given program or course type.

The final version will involve more parameters. This is shared as an example only.

Note the following table excludes one dual enrollment course, one contract course and one course with no delivery method information. There is also one student coded as OpenEntry Open Exit, who is excluded. In addition, the table includes international students, who accounted for 755 enrollments and 78 FTSE.

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Enrollment and FTSE from Fall 2019 Scenario Enrollment FTSE

Classroom

Taught Online

Classroom and 25-75% Online

Traditional with Computer Self-Paced Done on Campus

Self-Paced Independent Express Format Honors Content TOTAL

33,842

16,200

5,276

2,446

1,304

372

101

68

59,609

3,400

1,627

603

264

137

28

9

7

6,075

Scenario mulitplier Enrollment would be: FTSE would be: -25% 25,382 2,550

10% 17,820 1,790

-25% 3,957 452

-25% 1,835 198

-50% 652 69

0% 372 28

0% 101 9

0% 68 7

TOTAL 50,186 5,102

Percent change from 2019 values: -15.81% -16.01%

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Scenarios

Credit enrollment and FTSE change Flat at 0%

Down 15%

Down 30%

What if enrollment increases?

Factors that may lead to this outcome

Increase in online enrollment, historical relationship between enrollment and unemployment Increase or neutral in online, limitations to in-person offerings, loss of international enrollment Neutral or loss in online, no in-person offerings, loss of international enrollment

In fall 2019, our enrollment was: 59,715

If we had filled every section that we offered, our enrollment would have been: 78,946

Based on this, we could absorb a 32% increase in enrollment based on last years offerings.

In addition: If we reduce section offerings to build a schedule that plans for a 15% drop in enrollment and if those classes fill, we can always add new sections. This would reduce excess costs for courses, while ensuring we meet student needs.

Other areas under consideration Adult education Assessing current capture rate of adult education students into virtual classes

Non-credit Currently a low enrollment area, but a possible area of growth in the current environment.

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Priorities: Near to long term

ELT lead Examples activities

Assess existing priorities Tom Davis Realign priorities to ensure we have available capacity to address challenges presented by the Coronavirus

Engage with the community Lisa Brosky Connect with potential students, the high schools, business/industry, community

Ensure financial stability and long term sustainability

David Bea Ready the college for potential financial challenges, identify opportunities

Futures planning Nic Richmond Establish, constantly revisit, and revise, foresight scenarios to guide decision-making and planning

Maintain institutional compliance Jeff Silvyn Ensure institutional compliance, including ongoing assessment of changes during the pandemic, ensuring HLC Monitoring Reports are submitted, implementing Enterprise Risk Management

Optimize physical spaces David Dore Assess the plans for the Centers for Excellence and revise as needed to ensure the Centers meet community needs during the pandemic era and beyond, assess space needs for operations and the campuses.

Reinvent academic offerings Dolores Duran-Cerda Rethink and transform academics to support virtual student success, develop an academic plan that is flexible enough to see us through the current situation, maintain focus on guided pathways, reinvent general education, ensure a focus on workforce needs, developmental education and adult education

Student support services enhancements

David Dore Maximize support for students, both academically and with the challenges created by the pandemic

Transform the workforce Jeffrey Lanuez Train and transition the workforce to meet the future needs of the College in terms of worker skills, size of workforce, and ability to adapt and develop into the future

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Big-picture questions/points for consideration

This is a development area used to identify the priorities listed in the preceding tab of this document. The detailed information provides background on topics that may be included within the priorities, but the specific milestones and outcomes will be determined by the ELT lead for each of the overarching priorities.

Near term Short term Mid term Long term

Combined priority Details (from April 3, 2020 Strategy Group meeting)

Summer Fall 2020 Spring 2021

Summer 2021

onward

Assess existing priorities Extend current strategic plan by one year or wrap up?

Realign ELT priorities

x

x

Assess impact of high school changes on new to higher ed cohort in fall 2020

x

Ways to engage with seniors at high school x x x

Ways to engage with current students x x x x

Ways to engage with dislocated workers x x x

Ways to engage with the community x x x x

Engage with the community If everything is online/virtual, how do we get students to stay with us, rather that go to one of the more experienced online schools?

x

Establish a comprehensive student communication plan.

x x

What are the impacts of COVID-19 on our partners in the community? How can we help and are there negative consequences on PCC that we need to plan for?

x x

Ensure financial stability and long term sustainability

Develop budget scenarios and plans for different possibilities (in progress): Long term sustainability with new revenue realities; legislative needs; adaptive to changing HE landscape

x x x x

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Ongoing monitoring of signals and drivers related to the current situation, to include improved understanding about spread of the virus, infection rates, other impacts in local, national and international community

x x x x

Big picture... will the current shift to virtual offerings lead to a long-term switch, regardless of ongoing virus?

x x

Develop enrollment scenarios (in progress) x x x x

Futures planning

What are the implications on competency based education?

How does this change our competitive landscape? x x

x

x

x

x

Develop a set of possible futures, to monitor in the context of signals/drivers, to help inform decisions. Leverage growth, constraint, collapse and transformation achetypes in the scenario development.

x x x x

How does this change impact the future of work/automation/etc? (need to ensure any changes/decisions address pandemic situation, but with a focus on the bigger picture trends that are not directly related to pandemic)

x x

Maintain institutional compliance

What are the regulatory impacts of a shift to virtual and, while some agencies are cutting higher ed schools slack at the moment, how will that develop as this continues?

Maintain focus on the two HLC monitoring reports

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Maintain focus on compliance activity, e.g. A-133 reporting

x x x x

Optimize use of College spaces and make decisions regarding leasing spaces or other uses

x x

Optimize physical spaces

CfE changes - space needs different? Any implication on the campus location of some centers? Short term demand for in-person training - could that be accommodated? What are the current planned end-states and how does that need to change?

x

- Automotive x - Advanced Manufacturing x

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- Allied Health x - Distribution of CfE at other sites (consolidate?) x

Class offerings - not hands on (plan for all virtual or identify windows when we may be able to offer in-person sections?). Also to include assement of any benefits of switching courses to eight-week, to maximize chances of being able to offer in-person sections

Decision: Virtual for summer

x x x

Class offerings - hands on - CTE/labs (are there remote options we can adopt or windows when we may be able to offer in-person sections? For the latter, how do we plan for one and then build in back-up plans if we have to pivot to something else?)

x x x x

Strategies to realign resources to support virtual/online (what additional is needed, where can the resources come from?)

x x x x

Assess ways to provide offerings to adult ed students

x x

Are there offerings we need to ramp up to support virus-related areas of demand? (eg healthcare) How do we compress the timeline for completion or skill development? How do we get people on site for training, while maintaining social distancing?

x x x Reinvent academic offerings

Assess impact of changes on program viability x x and demand - are there sectors that will grow more or contract that should inform program decisions and, in turn, faculty and staff positions

Are we on track to meet the guided pathways x timeline presented to the Board? How does the GP initiative have to change in this era?

How do we commit more resources to support x student success, given we know online success is typically lower?

Enhancing support for students in the current x x x x Student support services situation enhancements Maximize technology access for low income x x

students (if virtual continues)

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Develop return-to-work plan, taking into account personal cirtumstances that may impact our employees

x x

Long term shift to remote work? If yes, how should that be supported and what are the longer term policies that are needed? Assess longer term work from home options and how this can optimize staff time and needed physical space, to include accountabilility methods and supervisor training

x x

Revisit staffing and faculty numbers by unit, subject, location, depending on fall enrollment

x

Assess impacts on the 2020-2021 faculty hiring process

x x

Transform the workforce

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foresight scenarios for pcc during and after the pandemic · reinvent academic offerings dolores...

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