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ANNUAL REPORT 2017/18

ENERGY

FORESIGHT

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Contents

AA B C D E F GBB

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Decarbonisation of Heat

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Foreword

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About this Edition - ENERGY

Decommissioning

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Transport Innovations

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Energy Storage

Transition to Hydrogen Smart Grid Technologies Offshore Wind Power Health and Safety Round-up

PAGE 18-19PAGE 12-13 PAGE 14-15 PAGE 16-17 PAGE 20

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Foreword H2

1 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk

Last year we shared our first Foresight Annual Report focussing on the topic of Information and Communication Technologies, which we hope prompted thinking about the impacts of developments in this area on the future world of work. Futures and horizon scanning exercises are not intended to predict the future, but to challenge all of us to review our assumptions about the way things may develop and to consider the potential impact on our strategies and plans as a consequence.

This year HSE’s Foresight Centre looks at the developments that may be coming in the UK’s approach to the generation, storage and use of energy. This is a timely consideration given the priority of reducing the carbon dependency of the UK’s energy supply and also the changing split of consumption between industry sectors.

Transportation is the largest sector for UK energy consumption1 (at 40% in 2016), and developments in hybrid, electrical and hydrogen energy sources for vehicles will be critical in meeting the Climate Change Act (2008) targets. However, changes in energy consumption and the power generation mix could also be critical and have dramatic impacts on the world of work.

By challenging our assumptions at an early stage, potential risks can be understood and minimised or mitigated. This approach is at the core of HSE being an enabling regulator, allowing us to engage early in the development of technologies and to be fit for the future.

I hope you enjoy our Foresight Report for 2017/18, and that it helps to stimulate some helpful conversations about the future world of work.

Professor Andrew Curran Chief Scientific Adviser and Director of Research

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About this Edition - ENERGY

2 www.hse.gov.uk/eet/index.htm3 www.hse.gov.uk/strategy/strategy-document.htm4 www.hse.gov.uk/strategy/keeping-pace-with-change.htm

The government’s Chief Scientific Adviser defines horizon scanning as, ‘A systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities, beyond the Parliamentary term, allowing for better preparedness and the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into the policy-making process.’ Futures techniques do not predict the future, but rather they provide decision-makers with the opportunity to build resilience to the changing future occupational landscape. This aligns with the government’s aim to help businesses grow and to do so in a safe and productive way.

How to Use This ReportThe reader can use this as a discussion document to build up a picture of what their working future might look like and consider the ‘So What?’ question i.e. what might these potential changes mean for health and safety in your area(s) of interest? If you are interested in exploring collaborative futures techniques, such as workshops and scenario building, you can contact the HSE Foresight Centre (please see back cover).

in nature, subject to factors such as the weather, which is changeable. This is driving forward advances in energy storage technologies, to store surplus energy and make it available when needed. A number of ‘network firsts’ were witnessed in 2017 – including a day where the UK’s electricity system was operated with zero coal-power generation and a day where over half of the country’s electricity demand was met by renewable generation. The topics for this report were chosen at a workshop between HSE’s Foresight Centre and colleagues from policy, operational and research backgrounds. Emerging trends were selected that are anticipated to take place in the energy system over the coming four to ten years. It builds on HSE’s previous work related to emerging energy technologies2. The report contains a collection of thought-provoking articles about emerging energy topics and their potential impact on occupational health and safety. We have not attempted to cover every aspect of energy and there are inevitably overlaps between the topics.

About HSE’s Foresight CentreThe health and safety system in Great Britain aims to ensure that risks in the changing workplace are properly controlled. One of the six strategic themes in the Help Great Britain Work Well3 Strategy (2016) is Keeping Pace With Change4: anticipating and tackling new health and safety challenges. HSE’s Foresight Centre undertakes futures activities that contribute to the strategic themes. We identify and analyse trends and emerging issues and consider their potential to affect health and safety. When HSE’s futures capability is combined with its unrivalled knowledge and expertise of health and safety, it can help Great Britain to tackle the anticipated problems of tomorrow, today.

Welcome to the second annual report from the HSE Foresight Centre. We have chosen energy as a key theme with which to demonstrate the importance of considering future risks and the world of work. Energy includes the sources, systems and technologies that relate to power, heat and transport sectors. Environmental targets are driving significant changes in the level and nature of demand for energy in the UK. This is leading to an energy revolution as we transition to a cleaner, low-carbon energy system. Energy systems are changing and becoming increasingly complex and interconnected. Over the next ten years the UK energy landscape will look and feel very different from today.

The Climate Change Act 2008 sets out the UK’s carbon reduction requirements, i.e. to reduce emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. It requires that emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are reduced and that preparations are made for climate change risks. This is supported by the Paris Agreement, a pledge by many nations, including the UK, to hold the global temperature rise at a maximum of two degrees centigrade. The Government is making innovation funding available to support the required transition to a low-carbon future by enabling power, heat and some transport to move away from burning fossil fuels, such as oil and gas, for energy. Enabling technologies, particularly developments in computing, are also driving significant changes in the sector, such as the smart grid. One example of change taking place to decarbonise the energy system is a significant increase in the use of low-carbon electricity to power heating and vehicles. The pressure to decarbonise the energy system is also driving increasing deployment of renewable technologies such as wind and solar power. Renewable energy tends to be intermittent

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DECARBONISATION OF HEAT

Accelerating Advances

Nearly half of the energy consumed in the UK is used to provide heat. Seventy percent of the heat generated in the UK comes from burning natural gas, which produces carbon dioxide on combustion. The remainder is generated from electric heating and non-gas fuels such as oil, solid fuel, bioenergy and recycled waste energy. Reducing the carbon content of heat, known as decarbonisation, is required to meet UK carbon reduction targets. Transition to low-carbon alternative energy sources must be achieved in a way that ensures security of supply and affordability for consumers. It is likely that this transition will have a significant disruptive impact on ageing gas and electricity networks. In addition to this, new infrastructures will need to be developed, as well as new policies/regulations, to enable a smooth transition. The energy industry is considering a range of options to achieve decarbonisation. The solutions are likely to be complex and interdependent and will need to be considered at local, regional and national levels. How each option evolves will be influenced by factors such as cost, levels of disruption, consumer acceptance, government support/investment, political will and possible technical advances. It is therefore likely that a mixture of options will be needed to deal with the diverse range of environments, including variations in geography, housing types, habitation patterns and socioeconomic factors. For example, centralised district heating may be more suited to high density areas, whereas localised ground-source heat pumps may be more suited to rural areas.

Electrification of Heat - involves switching from natural gas to electricity for heating buildings. In this option, gas boilers would be replaced with highly efficient heat pumps (ground and air-source); low temperature radiators and underfloor heating would need to be installed. Heat pumps are already in operation in the UK but uptake has been limited (20,000 installed per annum). Hybrid gas/electric heat pump systems are also an option, allowing customers to switch between fuels, thus providing a back-up system. Although this option would greatly reduce demand for gas, emissions would only be reduced if the extra demand for electricity was met by low- or zero-carbon renewable electricity sources.

District Heat Networks - as technology advances it is likely that new networks will be built to supply heat to buildings from a central source. District heating is the efficient and low-cost supply of heat from a centralised plant to users through a network of pipes. It can offer significant carbon savings compared to gas boilers as it can utilise low carbon fuels such as biomass, biogas or waste energy from industrial processes or power plants. Government research indicates that district heating could provide 20% of UK demand by 2030. Across the UK there are 280 heat network projects ready for investment. In 2017 the UK Government granted £320 million funding under the Heat Network Investment Project, which will save over two hundred thousand tons of carbon dioxide emissions over 15 years.

Expanding the Use of Biogas - there will be an increased contribution from renewable energy sources such as biogas for heat generation. Biogas, currently produced by anaerobic digestion (AD) plants, powers over 1 million UK homes, an increase of 18% over 2016. The reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions due to AD today is 1% and AD employs over 3,500 people. With supportive policies a further 4% reduction in emissions could be realised and 35,000 people could be employed. It is expected that about 20 plants a year will be built over the next few years in the UK. Britain’s first ‘green gas mill’, set to come online in 2018, will convert grass into biomethane to heat more than 4,000 homes. Other technology, more efficient than AD and capable of using a wider variety of biomass, is in development - collectively called ‘Advanced Conversion Technology’.

Improving Energy Efficiency - remains the most cost-effective way to reduce demand for heat and cut carbon emissions. Installing loft and solid wall insulation, double glazing, draught-proofing, smart sensors and smart meters in existing and new housing stock will reduce wasted heat energy. Government energy saving incentives may provide some help to consumers wishing to make improvements.

Technical Advances over the Horizon - it is possible that major technological advances in particular technologies, such as a breakthrough in cheap and sustainable hydrogen generation or major developments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could steer the direction of change toward a particular heat decarbonisation solution(s). Major advances in CCS could, for instance, enable natural gas to be a viable long-term fuel source for heat generation. Millions of consumers and businesses may install small-scale renewable generation and storage in premises. These so-called ‘prosumers’ will generate and store their own power and sell excess to the grid.

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AA B C D E F GBB

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Improving Energy Efficiency Re-insulating existing buildings may expose workers to hazardous conventional insulation materials such as synthetic mineral fibres (glass wool, rock wool). This presents occupational health risks such as dermatitis, eye irritation, bronchitis and asthma. There may also be the risk of exposure to asbestos-containing materials during the refurbishment of older buildings. Using green refurbishment materials from renewable organic sources may increase the risk of exposure to micro-organisms or allergens. Green buildings are well sealed to improve energy efficiency; unless there is adequate ventilation this may be associated with poor indoor air quality and related health effects.

Heat Networks Health and safety risks may arise in construction, installation, operation and maintenance of district heating systems due to the challenges of effective communication and strategic working between contractors, suppliers, building managers and network operators. Disaster recovery plans should be in place to mitigate the health and safety consequences of major incidents such as flood, fire or electricity failure. Advanced Conversion TechnologyThe gas produced from advanced conversion technologies may contain carbon monoxide, which is toxic. Regulation and Governance The regulation and governance frameworks, such as those for metering, contracts and technological upgrades may need to be reviewed and updated if the system continues to move towards localised energy generation.

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TRANSPORT INNOVATIONS

Accelerating Advances

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The factors driving innovation include the need to reduce air pollution and the resultant risks to health and environmental impacts. A range of policy initiatives and research areas are being directed at improving air quality and reducing road congestion in the UK, particularly in urban centres. Research and innovation are being funded to promote the electrification and automation of vehicles and the take up of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles, whilst also providing the infrastructure changes needed to support these innovations, such as a network of electrical charging points. The ultimate goal is to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels whilst making better use of more environmentally sustainable energy sources and at the same time reducing health impacts and improving quality of life.

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) - is composed of the same natural gas (methane) that is used domestically for cooking and heating. When used as a fuel, it produces a reduction of 20-30% in carbon dioxide emissions when compared with a petrol engine (although temperature also plays a part) and 95% reduction in NOx emissions compared with a diesel engine without NOx post-combustion removal technology. One major retailer has put a fleet of new trucks on the road for deliveries to stores in the North and Midlands running entirely on compressed natural gas derived from biomethane. Other manufacturers are looking at dual fuel vehicles that can use either CNG or diesel, depending on availability. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – is chemically the same gas as CNG (methane), but the gas is stored and transported as a cryogenic liquid at very low temperatures (-161.6°C). LNG gives vehicles a much better range than CNG, especially for heavy vehicles such as HGVs. Vehicles can also re-fuel much faster than with CNG. However, the refuelling infrastructure is more complex and expensive.

Electric Vehicles (EV) – electric or hybrid motor vehicles are propelled by one or more electric motors, using electrical energy stored in rechargeable batteries. Battery technology is developing to improve storage capacity, compactness, weight and cost. Whilst lithium-ion batteries are used on the majority of vehicles, solid state, aluminium-

ion, lithium-sulphur and metal-air batteries are all subject to ongoing research and development. Plug-in vehicle sales grew from 3,500 in 2013 to almost 121,000 by the end of October 2017 and are predicted to reach one million by 2040. Many manufacturers also now offer pure-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Bioethanol as a Fuel - produced from sugar cane or corn could also produce zero-emission electric energy. A prototype solid-oxide fuel-cell vehicle was recently unveiled in Brazil, where ethanol is readily available in all filling stations - in marked contrast to hydrogen pumps. The fuel cell converts ethanol to hydrogen, which is then used to create electricity to run the vehicle. Intelligent Recharging - electric cars are putting increasing pressure on the UK’s power grids, making it vital they are recharged at the right time of day. Most owners charge their batteries immediately after returning home from work which coincides with energy demand being at its highest point in the day. Intelligent charging - where a car may not start charging until a few hours after a driver has plugged it in - could alleviate much of the cost of power network upgrades required to cope with EV. Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles - passenger fuel-cell vehicles that operate on fossil-derived hydrogen with CCS offer 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions when compared to conventional

petrol vehicles, and produce no carbon dioxide when the hydrogen is derived from renewable sources. A mass-produced fuel- cell vehicle with 350-mile all-electric range is projected to cost less than plug-in hybrids and EV. Hydrogen for other energy uses is detailed on the hydrogen page (page 12). Battery Bus - several fleets of electric buses are already in service across the UK (such as the hydrogen buses that have been running in London over the past eight years), which provide zero exhaust emissions and a quieter, smoother journey than conventional buses. Recent models, added to the Edinburgh public transport network, can run for up to 130 miles on a single charge – which takes 3 hours. When the bus brake pedal is applied, the kinetic energy is recovered to top up the battery. Solar panels on the bus roof can also be used to top up charge to the battery. Shared-Vehicle Schemes - research has shown that many young people no longer aspire to own a car. Car use and ownership have become less attractive due to cost and better public transport. Within UK towns and cities, access to a mix of shared-vehicle schemes (such as car clubs and ride sharing) together with shared bikes and public transport, provide a viable alternative to owning a car. The availability and use of smart technology systems has facilitated improved access to and use of shared transport.

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Emerging Risks Potential risks to workers include electrical, chemical, fire and explosion risks, electromagnetic field risks and manual handling risks. EV batteries when connected across multiple cells (mainly lithium) have relatively high voltages (around 300 V) and therefore pose an electrical hazard. These risks will be present, and will change, throughout the lifecycle of these vehicles as technology and materials evolve. Workers will be exposed to risks in a range of occupational areas across the lifecycle of electric vehicles from manufacture and road traffic to servicing/repair and disposal/recycling.

Road Traffic AccidentsAccidents involving electric vehicles may result in electrical and fire risks, as well as chemical hazards if damage occurs to the battery. The emergency services and breakdown workers may be at risk, as parts of a damaged vehicle may be still be live after an accident. Mechanical battery damage that is not evident on visual inspection can still pose a fire risk. At low speeds, electric cars produce almost no noise; as such they may pose a collision hazard to pedestrians. LNG and hydrogen use may also present a safety hazard due to the extremely cold temperature of these materials.

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ENERGY STORAGE

The demand for energy continues to rise, driven by population growth, economic development and technological advances. Increased global storage is needed to maintain reliable, stable and resilient energy supplies that can meet demand. This is key to enabling better integration of renewable (intermittent) sources of energy into the grid. National Grid anticipates that UK electricity storage capacity could grow rapidly to almost 6 GWh by 2020 and up to 18 GWh across the country by 2040. Cost has been the main barrier to the uptake of large-scale electricity storage and recent advances in battery storage and technology may help to overcome some of the limitations imposed by conventional systems. Grid-scale energy storage technologies include batteries, capacitors, flywheels, pumped hydro, heat storage and compressed air. These technologies have reached different levels of maturity and each is deployed to varying degrees, with pumped hydro being the most mature. At present, most utility companies favour battery energy-storage systems as these are easily scalable and can be located almost anywhere. Enhanced storage capacity for energy generated from renewable sources will enable the UK to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and transition to a low-carbon energy generation system as set out in the Government’s energy and climate-change targets.

Cheaper Batteries – it is expected that as battery technology is developed, the cost of batteries will continue to fall whilst energy density, power output, reliability and safety of batteries will continue to improve. Cost reductions in lithium ion battery technology could see an increase in the number of large grid -connected battery storage facilities being built in the UK as well as an increased uptake of home storage technologies. Integration of Intermittent Power Sources – the UK’s National Grid already spends £1 billion a year on balancing the grid and predictive computer algorithms will be deployed to optimise this. Renewable energy is expected to play an increasing role in the UK’s transition to a low-carbon network. As the use of renewable and intermittent energy sources increases, investment in energy storage solutions - to make power available when required - becomes a cheaper option than the building of new conventional power stations. The outcome could be a decrease in the number of fossil fuel power stations that are needed to manage intermittency and balance the grid.

Battery Developments – as part of its Industrial Strategy, the UK Government launched the ‘Faraday Challenge’ - a £246 million four-year investment for research, innovation and scale-up of battery technology. In recent developments, researchers have developed a more stable charge-storing molecule (pyridinium) for use in redox flow batteries, making them more suitable for grid storage. Also, a new generation of manganese dioxide-zinc batteries is under development with unprecedented lifetime and energy density. Decentralised Energy – increased availability of cheap, easy-to-install solar panels and home battery storage systems could lead to an increasing number of prosumers. It is predicted that by 2020, most new storage will be distributed and deployed in homes and businesses (referred to as being ‘behind the meter’). There could be an increase in experimental energy storage, such as energy barns on farms and self-built home storage solutions. Energy storage systems will enable reliance on renewable sources in remote areas with weak or no grid infrastructure.

Battery Waste and Recycling - as few as 5% of lithium-ion batteries are recycled in the European Union. Recycling of these batteries from electric vehicles is likely to increase considerably over the next decade and could promote investment and developments in recycling technology. Companies are already investigating the best ways to recycle vehicle batteries - such as repurposing them for home storage use. Developments like this mean that batteries of the future will be designed with recycling and life extension in mind. Although the cost of batteries is falling, the costs of finite raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are set to increase. Developments are in the pipeline to replace these battery ingredients with alternative materials and also to find simplified methods to retrieve rare-earth resources from spent batteries. Novel Technology - research is being undertaken to explore other energy storage methods and technologies, such as underground cavern storage of compressed air or hydrogen, liquid-air energy storage (LAES), and efficient solar energy storage in liquid chemicals (norbornadiene). Progress has also been demonstrated in thermal energy storage using molten silicon. Unlike batteries, which have a finite number of charge/discharge cycles, the molten silicon can be used indefinitely and is designed to be recyclable.

Accelerating Advances

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Increasing ComplexityThe increasing diversity in battery types and designs, along with the rising complexity and scale of battery storage facilities, suggests that there may be a need for more robust management of risks related to battery storage facilities. Health and Safety HazardsThe quantity of hazardous material contained in large battery installations may present a significant hazard; batteries can contain combustible materials and may pose a fire risk. Electrocution or electric shocks are key health and safety hazards. Additionally, electrical arcing (sometimes called a ‘flashover’ or ‘arc flash’), perhaps as a result of a short circuit, can generate intense heat leading to burns. There may also be risks posed from electromagnetic fields produced by large battery systems. StandardsThere are a wide range of technical standards for battery storage facilities, so it may prove difficult for duty holders to find the right information in order to help them install a safe system. Safe DesignA design may prove not to be as safe as first thought when scaled-up following a small-scale pilot. Safety critical installations could also potentially be at risk from failure of a battery storage facility. Additionally, there is currently limited understanding of the potential safety consequences should a large battery storage facility fail.

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TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN

Hydrogen is a versatile and zero-carbon energy carrier and also the most abundant element in the universe. Hydrogen can be used in fuel cells to generate power using a chemical reaction rather than combustion, which produces only water and heat as by-products. Transition to wider use of hydrogen could bring significant benefits to the UK’s energy systems: heating homes and businesses, powering vehicles, and balancing intermittent power generated by renewables. Free hydrogen doesn’t exist on Earth and obtaining it from water or carbon compounds requires a lot of energy. Hydrogen can be produced from a diverse range of readily available resources, including: fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal; and renewable energy sources, such as biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro-electric power. There are a wide range of processes to do this and fifty million tonnes of hydrogen are produced per year worldwide. The three main industrial-scale methods for producing hydrogen are steam reforming of natural gas, the electrolysis of water and hydrogen that is generated as a by-product of industrial processes. While several other methods of hydrogen generation are available, steam-methane reforming (SMR) and electrolysis of water are the technologies of choice now and in the near term. Steam reforming is the cheapest method but comes with a carbon cost as it produces carbon dioxide which would have to be captured or utilised if it were to form part of a zero-carbon energy future. The hydrogen produced using electrolysis is referred to as ‘renewable hydrogen’ when the reaction uses electricity from renewable sources.

Adaptation of Existing Natural Gas Networks - reducing the carbon output of the natural gas supply could be achieved by increasing the level of hydrogen in the gas mix from the currently permitted level of 0.1 % to around 10%. The maximum concentration of hydrogen that can be safely permitted in the gas network without altering gas appliances is currently being investigated by the HyDeploy Consortium. Networks of the future will need to be flexible to allow use of different gas blends over time as technology advances. Hydrogen Distribution – with any fuel, safe, efficient and cost-effective distribution to end-users is of paramount importance. Hydrogen poses unique challenges compared to fossil fuels. One such challenge is that half of the UK national gas pipeline network would need to be replaced by a separate transmission network in order to carry hydrogen. This is because the pipes used to supply power generation and industrial uses (representing half of national consumption) are constructed from a type of steel which is unsuitable for the transportation of hydrogen. The remainder of the network, such as pipes used to supply domestic use, are made from low-carbon steel pipes, which are suitable for supplying hydrogen. Since 2002, the UK has been upgrading the majority of its iron mains distribution pipes by lining them with polyethylene which is suitable for hydrogen transport. The current iron mains reduction programme is due to be completed by 2032. Liquid hydrogen and compressed hydrogen gas can be transported via road using modified tanker trucks. However, this is limited due to the energy required to compress

or liquefy hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen only occurs at very low temperatures (−252.8°C) so its production is particularly energy intensive. Repurposing the Gas Grid with Hydrogen - switching from natural gas to hydrogen as a fuel source for heating is attractive as buildings heated with clean hydrogen fuel would not produce any carbon dioxide for the end user. However this has not been proven as a commercially viable option and cheap ways of generating and storing hydrogen would first need to be found. The feasibility of using the existing gas network to supply hydrogen, from a technical and economic point, is being investigated in Leeds (H21 Leeds City Gate Project) by Northern Gas Networks. Domestic appliances such as cookers and boilers would need to be modified in order to use hydrogen fuel; new hydrogen meters and sensors would need to be installed in all buildings. In order to be truly low carbon, if hydrogen is generated from natural gas the carbon dioxide would need to be captured and stored, or the hydrogen obtained from the electrolysis of water using low carbon electricity. Electrolysis Makes Renewable Hydrogen Affordable - hydrogen is produced industrially by the electrolysis of water, which splits it into hydrogen and oxygen. The cost of electrolysis is falling and becoming more competitive as the price of electricity generated from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, falls. Conversion efficiencies are predicted to rise above 80% due to the increasing size of electrolysers (where the electrolysis process takes place) and other technology developments.

It is likely that electrolysers will eventually become cheaper than steam reforming equipment and CCS. This would lead to this method becoming a viable option for cheap hydrogen production in place of methane reforming methods. Integration of Intermittent Power Sources - power-to-gas (P2G) is a method that uses the fast response electrolysis of water to generate hydrogen to store the excess electricity that can be generated from intermittent renewable sources. The method converts surplus electrical power into hydrogen gas that can be stored for long periods. The demand to increase the utility of this technology is likely to be boosted initially by the increasing use of hydrogen-powered vehicles. However, P2G is currently much more expensive than SMR and suffers from poor efficiency in converting electrical energy to energy in hydrogen gas. A number of companies are developing technology to overcome these limitations. Compressed hydrogen could provide a method for storing excess hydrogen that has been produced during the summer months until it is needed in winter. Salt caverns at Teesside already provide hydrogen storage. Coupling this with an appropriate distribution network would enable hydrogen to be moved across wider geographic areas to help balance the supply and demand issues of specific regions. Using fuel cells or gas turbines, it is possible to reconvert the hydrogen into electrical energy which can then be utilised at peak winter periods.

Accelerating Advances

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Hydrogen Risks Hydrogen burns, sometimes explosively, producing a flame that is nearly invisible. It has the widest explosive/ignition-mix range with air of all gases except acetylene. However, a hydrogen fire has significantly less radiant heat than a hydrocarbon fire, making secondary fires less likely and reducing the risks of harm to people nearby.

Hydrogen can present an asphyxiation hazard when used in enclosed spaces. It can cause severe cold-burns if it comes into contact with the skin. Hydrogen, in liquid form, is extremely cold (−252.8°C) so it can cause severe cold burns if it comes into contact with the skin. Risk Management Certain properties of hydrogen can make it safer to use than other fuels. Hydrogen has a small molecular size; in gaseous form it is buoyant and diffuses readily, which make the conditions for a hydrogen fire less likely to occur. In addition, because it disperses rapidly, the risk of ignition and asphyxiation hazards is reduced.

Hydrogen must be handled by users who understand its characteristics and can follow simple guidelines to mitigate the hazards. Many methods are available to detect hydrogen leaks or accidental release, and research is ongoing into more advanced sensors, tracers and new odorant technology. Colourants can be added to the gas to overcome the lack of a flame colour. Training and assessment modules are needed for gas engineers to allow them to work on appliances under existing legislation.

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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES

The UK energy system is changing. The demand for electricity has the potential to increase significantly and the generation of low-carbon electricity, which takes place close to homes and businesses, has variable yield depending on the time of day or the weather. Grid innovations are needed to provide a flexible, secure and cost-effective supply. The national transmission network, owned by National Grid, is the network of infrastructure and technology that delivers electricity from suppliers to regional distribution networks, from where it is distributed to consumers. Fundamental changes are taking place in the energy supply as it shifts to low-carbon decentralised sources, including local and community schemes, and the close to one million homes in the UK that now have solar panels on their roofs. Current grid technology has not changed significantly since it was first developed, but rapidly changing requirements, including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles and an increased demand for carbon-neutral heating will drive the need for change. Various solutions are required to avoid potential consequences such as inefficiency and unreliability of the grid. Ofgem, the National Regulatory Authority of Gas and Electricity Markets, acknowledges the early stages of change towards smarter energy system are already underway. It aims to ensure that regulatory and market arrangements will evolve to enable the transformation to a low-carbon energy system, whilst ensuring consumers’ interests are protected.

Electric Vehicle Batteries as a Grid Asset – this could be achieved by incentives that encourage charging of vehicle batteries late at night, when demand from the grid is low. Batteries could then be recharged from renewable sources, such as solar, while the vehicle is not in use (e.g. parked at the workplace) during the day. The same batteries could then put spare power capacity back into the grid during periods of high demand, such as early evening, performing as a grid storage asset. Electric-vehicle batteries are being developed with future energy needs in mind. Demand Side Response (DSR) - is a new way of making the energy system more flexible for consumers (the ‘demand side’). In essence, consumers are rewarded financially by moving demand to periods where there is greater availability of green energy and away from the periods where there is less. Two types of DSR are possible - manual shifting of the demand instigated by the user and automated DSR where machine intelligence moves load to the optimum periods for consumption. An example of the latter will be smart EV chargers that determine when vehicles will charge overnight according to power conditions on the grid. New technology, such as smart meters, will give consumers more insight and real-time control so that they can make the best use of low-carbon energy sources and reduce energy bills. This may work through scheduling usage or varying the source of supply. It benefits the system by helping to balance demand and supply and making the supply sustainable and affordable.

Smart Metering - offers a range of intelligent functions and provides consumers with more accurate information, such as elective half-hour statements, bringing an end to estimated billing. Smart meters provide consumers with real-time information on their energy consumption to help them control and manage their energy use - saving money and reducing emissions. The UK Government is looking ahead to consider the cyber-security risks of the future (to 2030) and is using its findings to inform technical standards for smart appliances and systems. Smart Grids - when coupled with smart metering systems and other sources of information, such as weather forecasts, smart grids can automate and manage the increasing complexity of the electricity system. Smart grids can contribute to the integration of renewable energy and aid network stability by balancing power generation and demand. Utilising energy storage devices (such as batteries) they enable distributed producers of energy from renewable sources (such as solar, hydro-electric and wind) to be fed into the grid on a large scale. In addition, use of the smart grid can increase the capacity of the electrical distribution system without requiring expensive cable replacement. A study for the Government estimates the benefits of a smart energy system to be £17-40 billion to 2050. European Union policies encourage the development of decentralised electricity generation in which electric vehicles, local storage and flexible smart technologies are expected to play a significant role.

Increasing Interactions and Interdependency - business and domestic consumers will have many more ways to engage with the energy system in their everyday lives. The ‘Internet of Things’ is a technological development whereby everyday machines, devices and appliances are connected and able to send and receive data over the Internet. This opens up a realm of opportunities for a smarter energy system with greater interaction and consumer engagement, for example giving advice on how to save energy. The extent to which new technologies – such as mobile phone apps – will reshape the energy system will depend on consumer uptake. Bundled Services - are increasingly being offered as a consumer option, where energy is bundled together with other products under one tariff, such as phone and broadband. Having an increased choice of services with embedded energy may promote more energy efficient, convenient or cheaper options for some consumers.

Accelerating Advances

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Occupational Hazards These may include the traditional health and safety risks related to construction, and also those related to electrical safety, such as working at height and potential risks to the public. Electricity Infrastructure, Distribution and Connectivity Risks Working in this area may present risks of ‘flashover’ burns, falls and electrocution during installation, connection and maintenance of new power sources. There may also be more exposure to the risks associated with live working as systems become more complex. Roof-mounted micro wind turbines or solar panels present the risks associated with working at height, during installation, connection or repair work. There may be construction and excavation risks during cable laying, substation construction and other activities (onshore and offshore). Increasing interaction of information technology systems and the power system could mean that a cyber-attack or system failure may lead to power removed from, or supplied to devices, which may cause safety risks for the network operator.

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OFFSHORE WIND POWER

The pressure to decarbonise our energy system is driving the deployment of technologies such as wind, solar, carbon capture and storage, and nuclear. From 2000 to 2015 cumulative wind energy capacity around the world increased from 17 gigawatts (GW) to more than 430 GW. Industry experts predict that if this pace of growth continues, then by 2050 one third of the world’s electricity needs will be fulfilled by wind power. It is predicted that by the 2020s it will be as cheap as or cheaper than any other form of power generation. Placing wind turbines offshore widens the net of viable locations, enables access to increased wind potential thereby increasing the proportion of time that turbines produce energy. UK wind power is now cheaper than new nuclear power and the cost of gas-driven electricity generation. Higher voltage cables, lower cost foundations and growth in the UK supply chain have contributed to falling prices despite the challenges of operating in deep water and extreme weather. The cost of offshore wind energy has plummeted, with new prices on average 47% lower than they were in early 2015. This trend is expected to continue as the technology matures. The UK currently generates more electricity from offshore wind than any other country and it now has 30 offshore wind farms generating over 5.1 GW of operational capacity with a further 4.5 GW under construction. It is predicted that by 2030 installed capacity will reach 20 GW. Offshore wind now meets around 5% of the annual UK electricity requirements and this is set to double to 10% by 2020.

Increasing Power Output - turbine rotors and towers have increased in size and power over the past decade. The tallest turbines are currently about 220 metres in height, and heights are set to double in the 2020s, which will enable access to the higher wind speeds found at higher altitudes. Increased rotor and blade size enable them to sweep wider areas and collect more energy. The largest turbines can currently generate up to 8 megawatts of power. Rapid development of new materials and improved manufacturing processes, as well as increased reliability of system components is enabling stronger and longer blades, making wind turbines more efficient and lowering the cost of energy production from wind power plants. Next Generation Blade Design - traditional turbines are three-bladed, but different designs are under development, including two-bladed and bladeless machines. New two-bladed designs are expected to generate as much power as three blades whilst costing 20% less to install as they are made using less material and are lighter. Bladeless structures being developed are anticipated to overcome some of the aesthetic and environmental drawbacks of conventional turbine design by being virtually silent in operation and less visually intrusive. Although they generate 30% less output per structure, at least twice as many can be positioned in the space required for one three-bladed design. At the moment most wind turbine blades are made from glass fibre resin. Alternative materials are being explored by manufacturers, for example carbon fibre. Additive manufacturing (3D-printing) is also being explored as a potential blade manufacturing method.

Offshore Wind Power in Deeper Waters - the world’s first floating offshore wind farm started generating electricity in 2017, 25km off the coast of Peterhead, Scotland. The wind farm will power around 22,000 households. Floating substructures can tolerate harsher conditions and can be deployed far out to sea in deeper waters than existing wind turbines, enabling them to make use of the higher and steadier wind speeds offshore. Maintenance and Inspection - drones are increasingly being used for maintenance and inspection tasks. It is likely that in the future unmanned underwater vehicles could also be used for this purpose, or even to carry out remote repairs on wind turbines. A consortium has received £4 million to develop an unmanned robotic solution for maintenance of subsea power cables on offshore wind farms. Advanced sensor technology is being developed that will allow continuous monitoring and analysis of offshore wind farms. When used in combination with artificial intelligence and ‘big data analytics’ (the examination of massive volumes of data to uncover hidden patterns, correlations and insights), this is likely to reduce the cost and increase the safety of remote inspection and asset management. These data can be used to identify the need for maintenance, as well as other useful information. Intelligent predictive maintenance enables components to be exchanged before visible defects appear, reducing the risk of failure.

Use of Power Electronics is Increasing - Most modern wind turbines are asynchronous – that is the generator does not turn at speeds that give a constant 50Hz AC power, but at variable speeds depending on how fast the wind blows. To convert this power to a form that can be fed into the UK grid, semiconductor power electronics are required. These are becoming more sophisticated and units are getting larger as time goes on. Maintaining power electronics at sea requires highly specialist skills.

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety Traditional Hazards in New Environments Construction, operation, maintenance and decommissioning of wind farms in an offshore marine environment presents significant challenges and multiple hazards. These are likely to be similar to those that exist in related industries, e.g. working at heights or in confined spaces, manual handling and electrical hazards. Additionally weather conditions offshore can be tough and change continually making it more difficult to manage the risks to workers. There are also challenges with emergency rescue in remote marine environments. Other traditional ‘offshore hazards’ are also increasing, such as complex marine and aviation activities and transfer between the transport and the wind turbine installation. Additionally, increasing wind turbine blade size may pose an increased risk if they fail. Factors Contributing to Increased Risks Risks may be increased due to pressures to complete work within a small timeframe, due to weather conditions, or due to many different companies working on the same project. The rapid expansion of the UK wind industry may lead to skills gaps, which could result in a shortage of suitably experienced individuals. There is also an issue of international companies and workers who work across a number of different legal regimes. Maintenance and Inspection The use of drones and unmanned underwater vehicles for maintenance and inspection tasks is likely to increase, making inspections safer and less costly. Advanced sensor technology and artificial intelligence will enhance this capability in future.

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DECOMMISSIONING

There are many reasons why energy generation installations might need to be decommissioned. Original equipment might be worn out or superior equipment might become available. An installation may become uneconomic to run or the operator’s licence to operate may have expired. A change in the demand for a particular energy technology or environmental considerations might indicate the need to replace a given system. This could be driven by regulation, public opinion or economic reasons – tax rebates can be as high as 70% of the cost of decommissioning.

As the composition of the UK’s energy generating technology is undergoing significant change, a greater number of older installations need to be dealt with by decommissioning, life extension or divestment, or ultimately demolition. Decommissioning or demolition can be as complex, and in some cases possibly more so, than the original construction and may be a significant source of risk. Over time even the newer energy plants themselves will need to be replaced or repowered (i.e. rebuilt or the power source replaced).

Coal-Fired Power Stations - there are currently (2018) nine coal-fired power stations operating in the UK. The government has stated that all coal-fired power stations will be closed by 2025. The demand for coal has been reducing significantly and some observers suggest that unless there is a major drop in coal prices or CCS technology becomes viable, the power stations will close before then. Gas-generated power will replace some of the lost capacity along with increasing quantities of renewable energy. Some power stations have been converted to biomass and others will follow. Oil and Gas - the first North Sea oil was produced in 1967. Since then an output of 42 billion barrels of oil has been produced and there may be up to 24 billion barrels left. The output has declined since 1999 and the remaining stocks could last for 30-40 years. Currently, over 1500 structures remain with an average age of 25 years. Removing the large, fixed platforms in the North Sea will be costly and challenging. For example, the three platforms of the Ninian field (combined) weigh 706,000 tons and will take about 20 years to decommission. The scale of decommissioning is huge; over 35 years there are 5500 wells, 400 facilities and 10,000km of pipeline to decommission, which could cost £50 billion. It is likely that over the next 5-10 years oil and gas decommissioning activities will increase further.

Wind Turbines - are considered for planning purposes to have lifetime of 20-25 years. In late 2017 DONG Energy reported the decommissioning of the world’s first offshore wind farm, built in 1991. Parts salvaged from the wind farm have been recycled where possible. There are concerns that decommissioning new-build wind farms might be more costly than the construction phase. Questions are being raised, for example, about how best to recycle the rare-earth elements from generator components and the composite turbine blades themselves. Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power - is a high growth technology and is dispersed widely compared to other technologies, with the majority of generation being in domestic properties. Other sites are on commercial and industrial buildings, community buildings, and large-scale ground-mounted systems. A typical lifetime expectation is about 30 years.

Nuclear - at the end of the operating life of a nuclear plant, the site needs to be turned back to a state where it can be used again or returned to an unrestricted, de-licensed condition. Generally there are three phases of decommissioning: radioactive material is cleaned out and removed; radioactively contaminated parts are disassembled, removed and the radioactivity allowed to decay; the facility is taken down and remaining structure demolished. The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority was established to manage the decommissioning of the UK’s civil nuclear legacy. Currently it ‘owns’ 17 sites in the UK that date back as far as the 1940s. Owners of the current fleet of commercial reactors and other nuclear facilities are responsible for making arrangements for decommissioning when their facilities reach the end of their operational life. Wave and Tidal Energy – have been around for years (the first modern tidal power station was opened in 1966 near Saint-Malo, France), but have only fairly recently started to be seen as a possible significant contributor to electricity development. So, significant levels of decommissioning are therefore some way off.

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Possible Implications for Health and Safety

Oil and Gas In many cases health and safety risks from decommissioning will be similar to those of construction or maintenance operations carried out both on and offshore. The scale of decommissioning is globally unprecedented; there may be insufficient suitably experienced workers to manage the health and safety risks. Decommissioning fixed installations, is much more difficult than decommissioning mobile offshore installations. Fixed installations can vary significantly in design and complexity; those located in much deeper waters and in remote and hostile locations, have begun to be dismantled. Wind Turbines Health and safety risks related to the decommissioning of wind turbines are likely to be similar to those during construction and maintenance. However, dismantling processes are much more complex than those onshore due to hazardous environmental conditions (wave and wind) and locations far out at sea. Additionally, the offshore environment may cause corrosion, which may compromise structural integrity of wind turbines, which could lead to safety risks. Decommissioning of wind turbines will increase over the coming years and along with it health and safety risks associated with these activities. Solar Photovoltaic (PV)Dismantling of domestic installations is likely to be carried out by small traders, for whom possible health and safety hazards could include falls from height, exposure to toxic chemicals and electrocution or electric shock.

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Health and Safety Round-UpThe ongoing transformation of the UK energy sector means that innovative technologies, different attitudes and new perspectives on risk are likely to pervade throughout the energy system. However, many of the health and safety risks related to changes in the energy sector will be familiar to this and other work sectors, such as falls from height.

To conclude the report, we have drawn together some of the likely health and safety issues:

The speed of development and deployment of energy technologies is anticipated to result in a growth in work activity. This will correspondingly increase the potential for health and safety incidents and accidents to occur unless additional measures are taken. Rapid expansion of energy technologies is already leading to insufficient numbers of skilled workers to meet demand.

Greater overall complexity and diversity within the energy sector is likely to also lead to an increase in the variety of health and safety hazards and risks. There is some uncertainty regarding what risks might be associated with the scaling-up of some energy technologies.

New entrants into the energy sector may have to manage novel or unfamiliar hazardous activities or may struggle to quickly establish an effective health and safety culture. Emerging, complex and interconnected energy technologies are likely to require the need for updated risks assessments. However, there may be a relative lack of safety data available that can be used to assess these risks.

Greater use of, and interfaces with multiple contractors on large, complex energy projects may, for example, lead to a lack of communication which may increase the potential for accidents. OSH consequences and public safety issues could arise from blackouts caused by difficulties in balancing the electricity grid across an overall more complex, integrated and diverse energy infrastructure. A more interconnected energy infrastructure could result in ‘domino effects’ – where a minor incident, followed by a series of knock-on events, could potentially lead to a catastrophe unless resilience is built-in.

These health and safety issues demonstrate the need for organisations within the energy sector to ‘build in’ safety at the design stage of developing and scaling-up new technologies or new approaches, such as those that can be applied to the whole energy system. This will contribute to improving innovation and developments in the UK energy future. Additionally, the changing structure of the UK energy system means that potentially any workplace could become part of the energy sector. HSE considers the general provisions of the Health and Safety at Work etc Act 1974 provide the basis of a fit-for-purpose regulatory framework for energy generation across onshore and offshore health and safety regimes. HSE has many years of experience regulating energy technologies and other hazardous industries. It will continue to apply its expertise intelligently to new and emerging technologies and complex (whole energy) systems. However, it remains the responsibility of those developing and deploying new technologies to identify the hazards and associated risks and implement appropriate management and control measures.

One of HSE’s roles is to help enable new and emerging energy technologies to be developed and adopted safely and successfully both within Great Britain and, where possible and appropriate, worldwide. Recent HSE activities in the energy sector can be found in our Annual Science Review.5

5 www.hse.gov.uk/research

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foresightcentre@hsl.gsi.gov.ukHSE Foresight Centre, Health and Safety Executive, Buxton, Derbyshire, SK17 9JN, UKT: +44 (0)203 028 2000

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This publication was funded by the Health and Safety Executive (2018). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.

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