foresight and horizon scanning · of domain of exercise, its evolution and key contextual factors...
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FORESIGHT AND HORIZON SCANNING A TOOL TO SUPPORT EU POLICY
University of Birmingham 29 June 2017
Fabiana Scapolo, PhD Joint Research Centre
Deputy Head of Unit, Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Policy
Why thinking about the future?
Speed of change is seemingly constant and unpredictable
Why thinking about the future? Speed of change is seemingly constant and unpredictable
Enhance preparedness for a volatile and uncertain future
Understand complexity and current transformations, interdependencies and non-linearity
What are the challenges for policymaking today?
Identify options
Management of change, be adaptive
Earning and keeping citizens' trust
Responsible and responsive policies
FORESIGHT
Structured, systematic and systemic approach to gain valuable insights into the mid-to-long term future
Develops anticipatory knowledge, identify opportunities
Participatory, inclusive, open
Anticipates and analyses possible future developments
Qualitative and quantitative methods and tools
Sheds light on today's strategies and actions to shape the future
WHAT IS IT?
FORESIGHT FOR POLICY
WHEN SHOULD FORESIGHT SUPPORT POLICY?
When critical functions change or are pushed to change: decline of key industrial sectors, after natural catastrophes, political crises
When stakeholders need to stand behind decisions: research priorities, strategic planning, budgeting
When decisions entail deep or long-term engagement and investments: resources, infrastructure, healthcare
When innovation needs to be fostered: adaptation to changed circumstances, rewiring of innovation system
FORESIGHT FOR POLICY
HOW DOES IT SUPPORT POLICY?
Helps to get out from present day concerns, go beyond the current mainstream thinking, look for opportunities, break gridlock
Inform policy making
Facilitate implementation
Stimulate participation of civil society and other stakeholders
Contribute to agenda setting
Enable policy system reconfiguration
It helps create visions and set an agenda
It is designed to have influence on policy not as an ivory-tower exercise
It addresses weaknesses of a policy (or set of policies) by helping to align different stakeholders around shared appraisals of future prospects
Products include codified reports, presentations, web resources but process benefits are equally important (i.e. linking stakeholders, enabling key actors to understand why particular policies are pursued)
Networks together different sources of knowledge from different locations and institutions
FORESIGHT FOR POLICY FEATURES
• Access to influential decision-makers (engaged to sponsor the work)
• Wide engagement can be important to establish the legitimacy of decisions informed by foresight
• Uses codified methods and tools to capture and bring together the knowledge (Delphi, scenario analysis, vision building, roadmapping, soft systems such as participative workshops)
• Effective integration into policymaking requires knowledge of decision timetable and policy language. This is accomplished through engagement of policymakers and analysis in the foresight process.
• Evaluation on outcomes and benefits of incorporating long-term actions into current policies and decisions may emerge after politicians and actors are long gone
• Good practice requires analysis of contexts of desk research analysis
FORESIGHT FOR POLICY REQUIREMENTS
Capability required Tasks involved Skill sets Knowledge bases
Managerial Scoping exercise Keeping participants on tasks; keeping activities on track, and on time Promoting efficiency and effectiveness of activities
Project management skills Effective and persuasive communications
Knowledge of key organisations, of cultural practices, of potential power relations and conflicts of interest across various stakeholders
Expertise in the domain and beyond
Ability to identify key players, issues and concepts in domains considered Ability to identify and examine critical social and organisational issues extending beyond purely scientific and technological aspects of domain
Scanning and selecting among sources of expertise, deploying own expertise, and using terminologies relevant to domain experts and experts in the social and organisational fields.
More than rudimentary knowledge of domain of exercise, its evolution and key contextual factors impinging on it over the long-term (including social and organisational issues and global trends and relations)
Foresight techniques Ability to draw lessons from previous foresight experience, to select and implement methods from the toolkit and to integrate results
Ability to apply techniques to long-term appraisal of domain and its context, or to manage practitioners applying these.
Knowledge of application and assessment of foresight tools and techniques, of their uses and limitations
Social practice Identification, mobilisation and coordination of key stakeholders
Social and leadership skills, including persuasion, encouragement, conflict resolution and management of small and large groups.
Knowledge of stakeholder management analysis, and of techniques of group work and participatory decision making
Policy relatedness Successful communication of ongoing activity and results, promoting action based on these
Presentation skills, ability to identify and influence key policy levers and change agents.
Knowledge of policymakers' language and timetables, of existing initiatives and windows of change
FORESIGHT FOR POLICY CAPABILITIES
Source: Miles, I. (2017) 'Technology foresight in transition' Technological Forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming)
ANTICIPATION THINKING (FORESIGHT?) IN THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
A diversified experience dominated by scientific and technological dimensions
A tendency towards modelling and quantitative methods
A growing consensus on the need to engage with global complexity and contingencies using a wider set of anticipation tools for more effective and resilient policies
2014 Better regulation toolkit: "foresight and other forward looking tools complement quantitative modelling with a system thinking and long-term approach that is developed through qualitative and participatory methods involving all relevant stakeholders. They facilitate thinking out-of-the-box."
FORESIGHT@JRC
Long tradition
Focus on technology analysis and progressive shift towards quantitative modelling
Recent revitalisation of foresight: addressing complexity through narratives
SYNCHRONISATION: align the timing of foresight projects with the European policy-making cycle
ENGAGEMENT: ensure active participation of the right stakeholders
POLICY RELEVANCE: co-design projects with policy DGs that can deliver insights to effectively support their specific policy initiatives
CROSS-POLICIES: system thinking often requires working with more than one Commission service on a given project
MORE THAN REPORTS: OPERATIONALISING FORESIGHT
DESIGN: customise and combine methods and create new fit-for-purpose tools
CAPITALISE ON FORESIGHT KNOWLEDGE: exploit the knowledge generated through foresight processes with policy makers and stakeholders through new tools and engagement processes anticipatory culture: bring long-term non-linear thinking into the mindset of policy makers
FORESIGHT
Horizon Scanning new emerging issues
Trends analysis blind spots and factors of change
Visions and roadmaps desired futures and associated policy agendas
Alternative futures testing policy initiatives, provide alternatives for policies formulation
Technology assessment from maturity to potential impacts
ACTIVITIES
Horizon Scanning and Trends analysis
• Large scale, long-term driving forces that are observable now and could have significant influence on the future impacting most human activities, processes and perceptions.
• The megatrends are global but we look and analyse them from a EU perspective.
• Based on extensive literature review, validation with experts in workshops.
The megatrends hub
Systematic examination of a wide range of sources (e.g. from news, scientific publications, conference proceedings, blogs) to identify potential threats, opportunities and early signs of future developments
Not only focusing on new and emerging technologies, but all possible including weak signals of change that emerge in society
Identify emerging trends and events that might have significant future implications for the EU
Increase the JRC's anticipatory capacity and culture
Flag issues which are at the margins of current thinking and planning
Adapt and prepare for the future and strengthen resilience
Creating a tool for sharing and mobilising knowledge
Horizon scanning WHAT IS IT? WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
• New emerging issues and trends
Non-obvious or very recently identified trends likely to weigh significantly on future events
• New drivers of change
New conditions that will impact how certain social, natural or technological parameters will evolve
• Weak signals
Apparently small events or novelties that, combined with other existing elements, could lead to significant changes
• Discontinuities
Abrupt changes that either stop certain existing phenomena, introduce major changes in
their dynamics or generate novel phenomena
Horizon scanning WHAT DO WE WANT TO DETECT?
21
Horizon scanning THE PROCESS
Visions and roadmaps
Future of industry
Facilitation of a dialogue between the industrial
sector and the European Commission (already
implemented on two manufacturing sectors)
Definition of an industrial policy agenda for the
manufacturing sector
Strong ownership from the sector on the vision
Identification of new highlights, partial
reorganisation or different take on existing
knowledge
A new method for industrial policy at sectoral level
Build on previously developed industrial landscape vision 2025 (ILV 2025)
Platform for active engagement with industry (especially SMEs), European Industrial Associations, and other stakeholders
Alternative futures
DELIVERING ON EU FOOD SAFETY AND NUTRITION IN 2050 – FUTURE CHALLENGES AND POLICY PREPAREDNESS
Future proofing the regulatory framework
Identify possible future challenges for the EU food safety and nutrition
Assess whether the current food policy and regulatory framework is able to deal with future challenges (contributing to REFIT - Regulatory Fitness and Performance Programme)
Identify research needs and develop policy recommendations on the basis of scenarios
Food safety & nutrition 2050
SCENARIO EXPLORATION SYSTEM
• Future simulation tool to engage in scenario exploration and future-
oriented systemic thinking
• Helps understand the logic of scenarios, complexity of decision making, constraints and opportunities faced by diverse set of stakeholders
• Users experience different roles such as a business, a civil society organisation, a public voice or a policy maker at different levels
SERIOUS GAME TO EXPLORE SCENARIOS
Feedback
Positive feedback from industry, NGOs and policy-makers
80% of players agree that the game helped
them take a strategic and forward-looking perspective
Strong elements of surprise and learning
As in real life, the quality of the conversation depends on the type of participants
Bringing scenarios to life
A board game that takes players through plausible alternative futures to make them think and discuss systemically
Brings the future close to participants' realities
Already two editions of the game using scenarios from different foresight studies
Technology assessment
QUANTUM COMPUTING
• Gather and summarize expert opinion about emerging quantum computing developments
• Help design European strategies for the field
• Identify forces of change
• Foster dialogue among experts and the wider community of stakeholders
• Improve understanding of future policy questions
• help in setting priorities
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND SOCIETY
QUANTUM COMPUTING
16 Delphi statements
• Quantum computing technical aspects -- applications and drivers that help innovation
• The state of research and the different approaches, across countries and institutions
• Integration of funding, research, and public policies to accelerate the development of quantum computing for various applications
• Actions, methods and time frames to identify and support the most effective research and technological developments
• Potential social and economic implications within time frames, including risks and the need for responsible innovation
REAL-TIME DELPHI
31
Forward looking exploration of existing, emerging and potential applications of Blockchain and other DLTs. Core focus on industrial / non-financial sectors for identifying, discussing and communicating possible uses and impacts of objects, networks and services across specific areas: connected things / machines automated / autonomous systems supply chains and assets monitoring logistics management intellectual property authentication and certification systems digital manufacturing / fabrication distributed models of iterative design
#BLOCKCHAIN4EU Blockchain for Industrial Transformations
EU POLICY LAB MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH
Deepen competences and trans-disciplinary approaches
Explore openly and reframe issues
Co-create user centred solutions
Engage with diversity of stakeholders and with citizens
Develop and customise tools and processes
Prototype, experiment and test in an iterative way
FORESIGHT
Lack of foresight literacy
Lack of verification possibilities
Lack of coherence between disciplines
Lack of long-term culture in policymaking
Lack of understanding of what foresight is and what is not
Lack of academic advancement on epistemological framework
CHALLENGES
