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© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
ForecastingNo More Guessing Games: Using Data to Get Exactly What You Need
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Barry Sackin, SNS
Facilitator
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Kristen BeallerSchool Nutrition Director
Davidson County Schools
Lexington, NC
• Board Chair for the North Carolina Procurement Alliance (NCPA) 2017-18• Served 3 years on NCPA Board• Member of NCPA since 2009
• Medium size district:• 36 School Sites
• 31 Kitchens• 5 Transport Sites• Approx. 19,000 students
• 43.86% Free & Reduced• No CEP sites
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Affiliation or Financial Disclosure
• Kristen Bealler
⎻ NCDPI School Nutrition
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
The Procurement Process
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Menus
Your Cycle Menu drives your bid!
• Decide what new products will be placed on the bid and what items need to be taken off
• Compare it to last years menu and look for product trends• Will I be using an item more or less frequently? • Make adjustments (+/-) for changes in the menu
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Menus
Your Cycle Menu drives your bid!
• Look at participation trends• What was my average daily participation with this menu pairing?• Will district enrollment increase or decrease? How will this effect daily
participation?
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Usage
Your Cycle Menu drives your bid!
• Request usage report from Distributor for first half of the school year (Excel sheet so you can sort by brand or item)• Use software Bid Estimation Report for the same time frame for
comparison
• Communication in any bid changes must take place with your Distributor as soon as you are aware• This is a two way street so make sure you set your expectations up front
with your Distributor and be the example to follow!
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Usage
Your Cycle Menu drives your bid!
• Pay attention to case size and quantities as they can change from year to year
• Track your substitutions• Substitutions not only wreak havoc on special diets but also they effect
your forecasting numbers for the following bid year!
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
MealsPlus Bid Estimation Report
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Sysco Charlotte, LLC. Usage Report
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Timeline
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
Standard Operational Procedures for Procuring Food/Supplies
JANUARYDevelop cycle menus for the next school year
Determine usages for the next school year based off of the new cycle menu
Request usage report from distributor and amend usages as necessary
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
FEBRUARYComplete Mid-Year price changes from Distributor received February 1
Complete usages for the next school year based off of the new cycle menu
Review NC-ECOS catalog for commodities and commodity processing
Review DTM Bid
Determine source of commodities (brown box: delivered and held at distributor,NOI, FFS, or commercial)
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
MARCH
Complete review of DTM Bid
Determine source of commodities (brown box: delivered and held atdistributor, NOI, FFS, or commercial)
Complete commodity calculators
Finalize & Submit NC-ECOS commodity purchases and planning
Submit commodity calculators to brokers
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
APRILEnter usages on bid spreadsheets and send to distributors
Enter commodity specifications on bid spreadsheets and send to
distributorsMAY
Check for any products distributor is not stocking (NS) or list as specialorder and adjust bid usage; if needed
Review sources and usage on bid spreadsheets and submit any changes to
distributors
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
JUNEEnter new product information in to the inventory system
Enter new product nutritional information in to the menus system
Managers enter orders for the beginning of next school year
Review end of year commodity balances, transfer unusable balances; list
unused products on Bob’s ListJULY
Complete new product information in the inventory system
Complete new product nutritional information in the menus system
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
AUGUST
Place initial order with distributors
Review distributor invoices for commercial, NOI, and FFS pricing for
accuracy and handle any discrepancies
SEPTEMBERComplete review of distributor invoices for commercial, NOI, and FFSpricing for accuracy and handle any discrepancies
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
OCTOBER
NOVEMBERAttend March Across the Carolinas USDA Donated & NCPA New ProductsFoods Show
DECEMBER
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
ONGOINGCommunicate any product/bid changes to distributors
Communicate any menu/usage changes to distributors
Enter/Verify USDA inventory upon receipt (K-12 Foodservice & ProcessorLink)
Monitor commodity account balances and report any changes to
brokers/distributors
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Checklist
ONGOINGReview FFS delivery schedules and communicate any changes tobrokers/distributorsReview 209 Report and communicate with NCDA for any changes, delays, andcancellations
Enter changes from distributor as they are received (code changes or price
changes)
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
North Carolina Procurement Alliance
(NCPA)
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• Founded in 2008 as a pilot study
• Board of Directors consisting of 14 members (7 zones)
• 103 School District Members (piloting 4 RCCI’s)⎻ 2,051 Schools
⎻ ADM: 1,230,695
• 12 Distributor Houses Awarded 2016-17
• Over $156,500,000 in food purchases in 2016-17
NCPA Facts & Figures
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• Two (2) bid documents completed on behalf of the membership⎻ Direct to Manufacturer (DTM)
• Issued by the NCPA
• Comprises 80% of the foods used by members
⎻ Invitation for Bid (IFB)
• Issued by each individual school district
• Groceries, Beverages, Supplies, & Produce
NCPA Bids
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
NCPA Official Bid Document
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Today, Tomorrow, and BeyondPittsburgh Public Schools’ Forecasting Evolution
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Malik HamiltonPurchasing SupervisorPittsburgh
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
⎻ Schwan’s Kitchen Circle
⎻ Pittsburgh Regional Food Service Directors
Affiliation or Financial Disclosure
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
- Campus Cafe(9)
- High School (6-12; 9-12)
- Cooking
- Direct Delivery
Today…
- Site Kitchen
- Middle School (K-8, 6-8)
- Vendor (16)
- Warehouse (9)
- Cooking
- Central Kitchen (20)
- Elementary(K-5)
- Pre-packs
- Miscellaneous
- ECC
- ASSP
- CACFP
- Outside Contracts
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• Forecasting
⎻ Summer Needs
⎻ School Year Usage
⎻ Special Events (Holidays, Themes, District Traditions)
⎻ Commodity Diversion
⎻ Farm to School
The Year Round Problem
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• ADP –
⎻ Not Enough Inventory
⎻ Averages Can be Problematic
⎻ Menu Item / Participation
• Enrollment –
⎻ Too Much Inventory
⎻ Menu Item / Participation
⎻ Attendance Factor
⎻ Entire District vs Site-by-Site
Today…
Forecasting using Enrollment vs ADP
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Warehouse & Production
- Detailed Production Records
Sites
- Production Records
Purchaser
- Distributor
Today…
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Today…
=ROUNDUP(IFERROR(((G2*900)+(H2*1100)+(I2*500))*0.75," "),0)
=IFERROR(ROUNDUP(J2/F2,0)," ")
=IFERROR(K2*5," ")
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• 6 weeks advanced ordering Warehouse / Production
⎻ From Distributor
• 1 week advanced ordering Sites
• 6 weeks advanced planning Purchaser to Distributor
⎻ Back to School Forecasting and Ordering June
⎻ Reverse Forecasting January - June
⎻ Goal to decrease OOS FOY/EOY 35%
Today…
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Tomorrow & Beyond
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Tomorrow & Beyond
DEEP DATA ANALYSIS
• FORECASTING CATEGORIES
• WHOLISTIC EVALUATIONS
• Commodity vs. Commercial
• Wednesday vs. Friday
• Monday Holiday Effecthttps://www.thedailybeast.com/data-science-is-booming-dont-get-left-behind
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Forecasting the FutureHow Dallas ISD is managing the inventory of tomorrow
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Speaker
Michael RosenbergerExecutive Director
Food and Child Nutrition ServicesDallas Independent School District
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Affiliation or Financial Disclosure
• Michael Rosenberger
⎻ Urban School Food Alliance
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
201620152014
Roadmap
Request for Proposal (RFP)
yielded a vendor that provided
five, fully integrated systems.
• Point-of-sale
• Back-of-the-house: menu
planning, inventory, production,
records, etc.
• Student accounts
• Online meals application
• Payment processing
Evaluated current information systems and determined they no longer met the needs of the department.
• Data managed locally rather than centrally
• Front-of-the-house and back-of-the-house systems not integrated
• Processes often required manual input or corrections
New systems were fully
implemented in 15 months.
• Training central and campus
staff
• Six full-time vendor employees
to support transition
• Physical inventory count
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Bid Awards
Digitizing bid awards allows
the menu and procurement
teams to quickly obtain
product specifications or
vendor information.
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Procurement Communication Board
The Procurement Communication Board (PCB) houses
all product inventory in a central location and manages
the weekly orders and deliveries.
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Establishing Par Levels
Calculated Periodic
Automatic
Replenishment (PAR)
levels ensure that the
warehouse is always
sufficiently stocked
with to fulfill school
orders.
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
PO Tracking
The PO Tracking function documents ongoing and past purchase orders.
Product shipment or packaging specifications are pulled from the Bid
Award database.
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
Forecasting Analytics
Prototype integrates enrollment, participation, item popularity, and
remaining service schedule to calculate the required order each period.
© COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS VEGAS, NV
• This session provides one (1) CEU
• Key Area 2: Operations 2400
Professional Standards Code
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