Metode Siklis Untuk Harga Jual SIR 3 CV

Bulan Tahun x y k h hk

April 2011 1 5.8211 1.2585166667 -5.5 -6.92184167

Mei 2011 2 5.3939 0.8313166667 -4.5 -3.740925

Juni 2011 3 5.2625 0.6999166667 -3.5 -2.44970833

Juli 2011 4 5.0289 0.4663166667 -2.5 -1.16579167

Agustus 2011 5 4.9344 0.3718166667 -1.5 -0.557725

September 2011 6 4.7285 0.1659166667 -0.5 -0.08295833

Oktober 2011 7 4.4579 -0.1046833333 0.5 -0.05234167

Nopember 2011 8 3.7584 -0.8041833333 1.5 -1.206275

desember 2011 9 3.5202 -1.0423833333 2.5 -2.60595833

Januari 2012 10 3.6304 -0.9321833333 3.5 -3.26264167

Februari 2012 11 4.0763 -0.4862833333 4.5 -2.188275

Maret 2012 12 4.1385 -0.4240833333 5.5 -2.33245833

Sum 78 54.751 -1.065814E-14 0 -26.5669

Average 6.5 4.5625833 0

Matrik

k' 1 cos 2πx/N sin 2πx/N

∑ k n 0 0 = 0

∑ k cos 2πx/N 0 n/2 0

∑ k sin 2πx/N 0 0 n/2

12 0 0 0 0

k' 0 6.5 0 -1 1.37531179165 6.5

0 0 6.5 5.74175697458 0

k' 507 -1 0 cos πx/6,5 -107.274319748 -sin πx/6,5

-0.21158642948

dikalikan (-1) -1 0.21158642948 -1

k' (507) - cos πx/6,5 (107,2743197) - sin πx/6,5 (447,857044) = 0

k' = cos πx/6,5 (0,211586429) + sin πx/6,5 (0,883347227)

Y = 4,562583 + cos πx/6,5 (0,211586429) + sin πx/6,5 (0,883347227)

n x y y' y-y' (y-y')2

1 1 5.8211 4.5300316 1.291068425 1.66685767816

2 2 5.3939 4.5951351 0.7987649083 0.63802537871

3 3 5.2625 4.5300316 0.732468425 0.53650999369

4 4 5.0289 4.5951351 0.4337649083 0.18815199566

5 5 4.9344 4.5300316 0.404368425 0.16351382318

6 6 4.7285 4.5951351 0.1333649083 0.01778619876

7 7 4.4579 4.5300316 -0.072131575 0.0052029641

8 8 3.7584 4.5951351 -0.8367350917 0.70012561371

9 9 3.5202 4.5300316 -1.009831575 1.01975980977

10 10 3.6304 4.5951351 -0.9647350917 0.93071379719

11 11 4.0763 4.5300316 -0.453731575 0.20587234211

12 12 4.1385 4.5951351 -0.4566350917 0.20851560699

∑ 78 54.751 54.751 -9.769963E-15 6.28

sin(2pix/12) cos(2pi/12) kcos(pix/6,5) ksin(pix/6,5)

0.5 -0.995616002 1.1143611659 0.5848618574

0.8660254038 -0.950064681 0.4722416917 0.6841602041

1 -0.926364384 0.0843656315 0.6948134861

0.8660254038 -0.873491969 -0.165358169 0.4360136576

0.5 -0.848343927 -0.278308771 0.2465600564

1.224647E-16 -0.78645016 -0.16109543 0.0397064573

-0.5 -0.691349139 0.1016414259 0.0250523615

-0.866025404 -0.386743152 0.6019398685 0.5332721897

-1 -0.269020681 0.3696342242 0.9746453478

-0.866025404 -0.324115559 -0.112362284 0.9253866673

-0.5 -0.534190061 -0.276240419 0.4002033376

-2.44929E-16 -0.561433617 -0.375507143 0.1970813519

-6.69535E-17 -8.147183332 1.3753117916 5.7417569746

0 0 12 0 0 12

0 cos πx/6,5 1.3753117916 0 0 -sin πx/6,5 1.3753118 0

6.5 5.7417569746 0 6.5 5.741757 0

447.85704402

0.8833472269

-0.883347227

k' (507) - cos πx/6,5 (107,2743197) - sin πx/6,5 (447,857044) = 0

Y = 4,562583 + cos πx/6,5 (0,211586429) + sin πx/6,5 (0,883347227)

Derajat Bebas 2

SEE

0.7925298229

0 = 0

6.5

0

Metode Konstan Untuk Harga Jual SIR 3 CV

Bulan Tahun x y n x y y' y-y'

April 2011 1 5.8211 1 1 5.8211 4.5625833 1.2585167

Mei 2011 2 5.3939 2 2 5.3939 4.5625833 0.8313167

Juni 2011 3 5.2625 3 3 5.2625 4.5625833 0.6999167

Juli 2011 4 5.0289 4 4 5.0289 4.5625833 0.4663167

Agustus 2011 5 4.9344 5 5 4.9344 4.5625833 0.3718167

September 2011 6 4.7285 6 6 4.7285 4.5625833 0.1659167

Oktober 2011 7 4.4579 7 7 4.4579 4.5625833 -0.1046833

Nopember 2011 8 3.7584 8 8 3.7584 4.5625833 -0.8041833

desember 2011 9 3.5202 9 9 3.5202 4.5625833 -1.0423833

Januari 2012 10 3.6304 10 10 3.6304 4.5625833 -0.9321833

Februari 2012 11 4.0763 11 11 4.0763 4.5625833 -0.4862833

Maret 2012 12 4.1385 12 12 4.1385 4.5625833 -0.4240833

∑ 78 54.751 ∑ 78 54.751 54.751 -1.066E-14

α Derajat Bebas 1

4.562583

Y = 4,562583333

SEE

0.7494

(y-y')2

1.5838642

0.6910874

0.4898833

0.2174512

0.1382476

0.0275283

0.0109586

0.6467108

1.086563

0.8689658

0.2364715

0.1798467

6.18

Metode Linier Untuk Harga Jual SIR 3 CV

Bulan Tahun x y xy x^2 n x y

April 2011 1 5.8211 5.8211 1 1 1 5.8211

Mei 2011 2 5.3939 10.7878 4 2 2 5.3939

Juni 2011 3 5.2625 15.7875 9 3 3 5.2625

Juli 2011 4 5.0289 20.1156 16 4 4 5.0289

Agustus 2011 5 4.9344 24.672 25 5 5 4.9344

September 2011 6 4.7285 28.371 36 6 6 4.7285

Oktober 2011 7 4.4579 31.2053 49 7 7 4.4579

Nopember 2011 8 3.7584 30.0672 64 8 8 3.7584

desember 2011 9 3.5202 31.6818 81 9 9 3.5202

Januari 2012 10 3.6304 36.304 100 10 10 3.6304

Februari 2012 11 4.0763 44.8393 121 11 11 4.0763

Maret 2012 12 4.1385 49.662 144 12 12 4.1385

∑ 78 54.751 329.3146 650 ∑ 78 54.751

b

-0.1857825

a5.7701697

Y = 5,77017 - 0,18578X

y' y-y' (y-y')2

5.5843872 0.2367128 0.056033

5.3986047 -0.0047047 2.213E-05

5.2128221 0.0496779 0.0024679

5.0270396 0.0018604 3.461E-06

4.8412571 0.0931429 0.0086756

4.6554746 0.0730254 0.0053327

4.4696921 -0.0117921 0.0001391

4.2839096 -0.5255096 0.2761603

4.098127 -0.577927 0.3339997

3.9123445 -0.2819445 0.0794927

3.726562 0.349738 0.1223167

3.5407795 0.5977205 0.3572698

54.751 -7.55E-15 1.24

Derajat bebas 2

SEE

0.3524079

Metode Kuadratis Untuk Harga Jual SIR 3 CV

Bulan Tahun x y xy x^2 X^3 X^4 X^2Y

April 2011 1 5.8211 5.8211 1 1 1 5.8211

Mei 2011 2 5.3939 10.7878 4 8 16 21.5756

Juni 2011 3 5.2625 15.7875 9 27 81 47.3625

Juli 2011 4 5.0289 20.1156 16 64 256 80.4624

Agustus 2011 5 4.9344 24.672 25 125 625 123.36

September 2011 6 4.7285 28.371 36 216 1296 170.226

Oktober 2011 7 4.4579 31.2053 49 343 2401 218.4371

Nopember 2011 8 3.7584 30.0672 64 512 4096 240.5376

desember 2011 9 3.5202 31.6818 81 729 6561 285.1362

Januari 2012 10 3.6304 36.304 100 1000 10000 363.04

Februari 2012 11 4.0763 44.8393 121 1331 14641 493.2323

Maret 2012 12 4.1385 49.662 144 1728 20736 595.944

∑ 78 54.751 329.3146 650 6084 60710 2645.1348

α β γ δ θ b c a

-22308 -1716 -306020 318.8028 3846.5324 -0.42758771 0.0186 6.3343818

Y = 6,334382 - 0,427587712X + 0,0186X^2

n x y y' y-y' (y-y')2

1 1 5.8211 5.9253945 -0.10429451 0.010877344

2 2 5.3939 5.553608 -0.15970799 0.025506643

3 3 5.2625 5.2190223 0.043477722 0.001890312

4 4 5.0289 4.9216374 0.107262637 0.011505273

5 5 4.9344 4.6614532 0.272946753 0.07449993 Derajat bebas 3

6 6 4.7285 4.4384699 0.29003007 0.084117441 SEE

7 7 4.4579 4.2526874 0.205212587 0.042112206 0.2944207

8 8 3.7584 4.1041057 -0.34570569 0.119512427

9 9 3.5202 3.9927248 -0.47252478 0.223279663

10 10 3.6304 3.9185447 -0.28814466 0.083027342

11 11 4.0763 3.8815653 0.194734665 0.03792159

12 12 4.1385 3.8817868 0.256713187 0.06590166

∑ 78 54.751 54.751 -1.5099E-14 0.78

Metode Eksponensial Untuk Harga Jual SIR 3 CV

Bulan Tahun x y x^2 Ln Y X Ln Y n x

April 2011 1 5.8211 1 1.7614892473 1.7614892 1 1

Mei 2011 2 5.3939 4 1.6852686854 3.3705374 2 2

Juni 2011 3 5.2625 9 1.660606199 4.9818186 3 3

Juli 2011 4 5.0289 16 0 0 4 4

Agustus 2011 5 4.9344 25 1.5962310849 7.9811554 5 5

September 2011 6 4.7285 36 1.5536080275 9.3216482 6 6

Oktober 2011 7 4.4579 49 0 0 7 7

Nopember 2011 8 3.7584 64 1.3239933349 10.591947 8 8

desember 2011 9 3.5202 81 1.2585178062 11.32666 9 9

Januari 2012 10 3.6304 100 1.289342835 12.893428 10 10

Februari 2012 11 4.0763 121 1.4051897142 15.457087 11 11

Maret 2012 12 4.1385 144 1.4203334033 17.044001 12 12

∑ 78 54.751 650 14.954580338 94.729772 ∑ 78

b

-0.01731

a1.35872 Derajat Bebas 2

3.89119 SEE

Y = 3,89119e^(-0.01731X) 1.3209

y y' y-y' (y-y')2

5.8211 3.824422 1.996678 3.9867229

5.3939 3.7587996 1.6351004 2.6735533

5.2625 3.6943032 1.5681968 2.4592412

5.0289 3.6309135 1.3979865 1.9543663

4.9344 3.5686115 1.3657885 1.8653784

4.7285 3.5073784 1.2211216 1.4911379

4.4579 3.4471961 1.0107039 1.0215223

3.7584 3.3880464 0.3703536 0.1371618

3.5202 3.3299117 0.1902883 0.0362096

3.6304 3.2727745 0.3576255 0.127896

4.0763 3.2166177 0.8596823 0.7390537

4.1385 3.1614245 0.9770755 0.9546766

54.751 41.800399 12.950601 17.45

Derajat Bebas 2