forecast runoff volumes for the snowmelt season … · forecast runoff volumes for the snowmelt...
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Forecast Runoff Volumes for the Snowmelt Season NWS California Nevada River Forecast Center and the California Dept. of Water Resources Issued: Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Remarks: An upper-level low pressure system will move from the Pacific NW into the northern Rockies today. This will bring light precipitation to northern NV today and help drop temperatures below normal by tomorrow (06/17) across the region. A series of upper-level lows will impact the west coast through the middle of next week (06/23) and continue the trend of near- to below-normal high temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal lows through the period. Mainly dry weather will persist through the period with occasional light precipitation possible in the extreme northern portion of the forecast area.
Please note: All peak 1-day volumes have already occurred. This will be the final snowmelt forecast for the season. Please contact the CNRFC if additional guidance is needed.
Forecasts reflect predicted short-term precipitation and temperature as well as the predicted shift from normal climatology provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Indicated values are unimpaired flow volumes in thousands of acre-feet in 5-day intervals for the next 20 days. The date indicated above each column is the mid-point of the 5-day interval.
Max: Reasonable maximum (10 percent chance of being exceeded) Prob: Most probable volume (50 percent chance of being exceeded) Min: Reasonable minimum (90 percent chance of being exceeded)
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 10.5 10.0 9.0 7.5
Prob 9.0 7.5 6.5 5.5
Min 8.0 6.5 5.5 4.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Williamson River at Chiloquin
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 15.0 10.0 8.0 6.0
Prob 14.0 8.0 5.5 4.0
Min 13.0 7.0 4.5 3.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Scott River at Fort Jones
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 60.0 48.0 40.0 30.0
Prob 52.0 38.0 30.0 20.0
Min 45.0 30.0 25.0 15.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Trinity River at Lewiston
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 80.0 70.0 65.0 60.0
Prob 65.0 55.0 48.0 45.0
Min 55.0 45.0 40.0 38.0
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Shasta Reservoir Inflow
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 89.0 72.0 54.0 43.0
Prob 80.0 60.0 45.0 35.0
Min 72.0 52.0 38.0 28.0
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
etFeather River at Oroville
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 57.0 46.0 36.0 26.0
Prob 52.0 40.0 29.0 20.0
Min 47.0 35.0 24.0 15.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Yuba River at Smartville
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 94.0 85.0 74.0 58.0
Prob 85.0 75.0 63.0 43.0
Min 75.0 62.0 51.0 32.0
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
American River at Folsom
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 46.0 42.0 31.0 20.0
Prob 40.0 35.0 25.0 16.0
Min 35.0 27.0 19.0 12.0
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Mokelumne River at Pardee
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 45.0 39.0 31.0 25.0
Prob 38.0 31.0 26.0 21.0
Min 33.0 25.0 20.0 16.0
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Stanislaus River at New Melones
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 108.0 104.0 88.0 65.0
Prob 93.0 86.0 73.0 53.0
Min 83.0 69.0 57.0 45.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1000
's o
f Acr
e-Fe
et
Tuolumne River at New Don Pedro
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 37.0 34.0 29.0 22.0
Prob 31.0 27.0 23.0 18.0
Min 26.0 21.0 17.0 14.0
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Merced River at Pohono Bridge
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 52.0 46.0 39.0 30.0
Prob 44.0 37.0 32.0 25.0
Min 38.0 29.0 23.0 19.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Merced River at Lake McClure
Peak 1-Day Volume: 14.7 Date: 6/6
Peak 1-Day Volume: 18.7 Date: 6/7 Peak 1-Day Volume: 41.6 Date: 6/7
Peak 1-Day Volume: 35.0 Date: 6/4
Peak 1-Day Volume: 20.6 Date: 6/6Peak 1-Day Volume: 12.3 Date: 6/7
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 119.0 112.0 97.0 74.0
Prob 95.0 90.0 79.0 62.0
Min 71.0 69.0 63.0 49.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
San Joaquin River at Millerton
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 110.0 97.0 82.0 72.0
Prob 94.0 83.0 72.0 63.0
Min 78.0 70.0 63.0 55.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Kings River at Pine Flat
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 30.5 28.0 25.0 19.5
Prob 25.5 23.5 20.5 16.0
Min 20.5 19.0 16.0 13.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Kaweah River at Terminus
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.3
Prob 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.8
Min 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.3
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Tule River at Success
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 39.0 38.0 36.0 31.0
Prob 34.0 34.0 32.0 28.0
Min 30.0 30.0 29.0 25.0
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Kern River at Isabella
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 12.0 10.4 8.0 2.5
Prob 10.0 8.0 5.0 1.0
Min 8.0 6.0 3.3 0.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Lake Tahoe Inflow
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 15.6 11.3 7.8 5.6
Prob 13.0 9.0 6.0 4.0
Min 10.4 6.8 4.2 2.6
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Truckee River - Lake Tahoe to Farad
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.1
Prob 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
Min 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
W F Carson River at Woodfords
Peak 1-Day Volume: 41.0 Date: 6/7 Peak 1-Day Volume: 42.0 Date: 6/6
Peak 1-Day Volume: 11.0 Date: 6/6
Peak 1-Day Volume: 13.0 Date: 6/7 Peak 1-Day Volume: 6.3 Date: 6/8
Peak 1-Day Volume: 1.6 Date: 6/7
Peak 1-Day Volume: 1.7 Date: 6/6Peak 1-Day Volume: 7.7 Date: 6/7
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 16.8 13.0 10.8 8.4
Prob 14.0 10.0 8.0 6.0
Min 9.8 7.5 5.6 4.2
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
etE F Carson River nr Gardnerville
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 16.3 10.8 7.0 3.1
Prob 13.0 8.0 5.0 2.0
Min 8.5 5.6 3.3 1.0
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Carson River at Carson City
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 19.2 21.3 17.5 12.0
Prob 16.0 17.0 14.0 10.0
Min 12.8 13.6 10.5 8.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
West Walker River blo Little Walker
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 5.5 6.0 5.1 3.6
Prob 4.2 4.6 3.8 2.8
Min 2.9 3.2 2.5 2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
East Walker River at Bridgeport
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 21.3 16.6 14.3 11.7
Prob 17.0 13.0 11.0 9.0
Min 14.5 10.8 8.8 7.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Humboldt River at Palisade
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.7
Prob 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5
Min 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1000
s of
Acr
e-Fe
et
Marys River abv Hot Springs Creek
6/18 6/23 6/28 7/3
Max 15.0 12.0 9.3 6.8
Prob 11.5 9.0 7.0 5.0
Min 9.8 7.5 5.6 4.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1000
s of
Acr
e -Fe
et
Humboldt River at Elko
Peak 1-Day Volume: 6.1 Date: 6/7 Peak 1-Day Volume: 6.9 Date: 6/8
Peak 1-Day Volume: 6.4 Date: 6/7 Peak 1-Day Volume: 2.0 Date: 6/9
Peak 1-Day Volume: 5.7 Date: 6/12
Peak 1-Day Volume: 3.9 Date: 6/11
Peak 1-Day Volume: 0.7 Date: 6/11