forecast: oil in oil fields - pubs.usgs.gov13220101 north sakhalin basin monte carlo results 2...
TRANSCRIPT
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
1
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Summary:Entire range is from 22.41 to 24,809.63Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 12.94
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 5,344.91Median 4,775.63Mode ---Standard Deviation 2,892.56Variance 8,366,906.29Skewness 1.29Kurtosis 5.54Coefficient of Variability 0.5412Minimum 22.41Maximum 24,809.63Range Width 24,787.23Mean Standard Error 12.94
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
2
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: MMBO100% 22.41
95% 1,791.3190% 2,245.0385% 2,614.1180% 2,941.0975% 3,253.0370% 3,555.4365% 3,859.3860% 4,154.5955% 4,457.2450% 4,775.6245% 5,104.2040% 5,467.6735% 5,855.8230% 6,302.0825% 6,808.4020% 7,397.1715% 8,128.7010% 9,144.32
5% 10,849.910% 24,809.63
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
3
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
Summary:Entire range is from 63.99 to 106,137.25Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 48.16
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 18,873.89Median 16,591.83Mode ---Standard Deviation 10,768.91Variance 115,969,525.11Skewness 1.39Kurtosis 6.00Coefficient of Variability 0.5706Minimum 63.99Maximum 106,137.25Range Width 106,073.26Mean Standard Error 48.16
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
4
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: BCFG100% 63.99
95% 5,988.7090% 7,600.9985% 8,904.5180% 10,008.5975% 11,107.5770% 12,151.7065% 13,248.4060% 14,326.1955% 15,436.0450% 16,591.7945% 17,805.1840% 19,201.2435% 20,653.0330% 22,252.6725% 24,185.5520% 26,335.8315% 29,094.2010% 33,035.43
5% 39,520.110% 106,137.25
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
5
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
Summary:Entire range is from 0.60 to 1,162.53Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.52
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 201.93Median 176.60Mode ---Standard Deviation 117.21Variance 13,738.65Skewness 1.43Kurtosis 6.19Coefficient of Variability 0.5805Minimum 0.60Maximum 1,162.53Range Width 1,161.93Mean Standard Error 0.52
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
6
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: MMBNGL100% 0.60
95% 63.2490% 80.2785% 93.8280% 105.8375% 117.3870% 128.6965% 140.8460% 152.3955% 164.1950% 176.5945% 190.1840% 204.2535% 220.1130% 237.9025% 258.6420% 282.1215% 312.7410% 355.65
5% 427.270% 1,162.53
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
7
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Summary:Entire range is from 15.04 to 2,999.92Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 2.89
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 999.62Median 821.72Mode ---Standard Deviation 646.46Variance 417,905.07Skewness 1.04Kurtosis 3.43Coefficient of Variability 0.6467Minimum 15.04Maximum 2,999.92Range Width 2,984.88Mean Standard Error 2.89
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
8
Forecast: Largest Oil Field (continued)
Percentiles: MMBO100% 15.04
95% 255.8890% 328.8985% 389.3880% 447.2075% 504.3670% 562.3565% 622.3460% 684.4155% 750.0150% 821.7245% 900.7840% 989.0335% 1,094.4630% 1,209.5025% 1,341.3820% 1,506.8315% 1,712.6710% 1,988.01
5% 2,378.540% 2,999.92
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
9
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields
Summary:Entire range is from 102.95 to 114,455.59Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 62.12
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 24,932.72Median 22,090.91Mode ---Standard Deviation 13,889.89Variance 192,929,182.49Skewness 1.28Kurtosis 5.41Coefficient of Variability 0.5571Minimum 102.95Maximum 114,455.59Range Width 114,352.64Mean Standard Error 62.12
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
10
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (continued)
Percentiles: BCFG100% 102.95
95% 8,000.9990% 10,153.2485% 11,874.6880% 13,445.3075% 14,850.8270% 16,200.4665% 17,574.1660% 19,023.5555% 20,538.6350% 22,090.6445% 23,703.8040% 25,434.6435% 27,407.5530% 29,533.7925% 31,980.7820% 34,936.3215% 38,436.2710% 43,321.60
5% 51,783.530% 114,455.59
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
11
Forecast: Liquids in Gas Fields
Summary:Entire range is from 2.02 to 2,562.42Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.39
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 554.59Median 489.94Mode ---Standard Deviation 310.11Variance 96,168.26Skewness 1.29Kurtosis 5.44Coefficient of Variability 0.5592Minimum 2.02Maximum 2,562.42Range Width 2,560.40Mean Standard Error 1.39
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
12
Forecast: Liquids in Gas Fields (continued)
Percentiles: MMBL100% 2.02
95% 177.5890% 225.1285% 263.7980% 297.6775% 329.4470% 360.0265% 391.0860% 422.5155% 455.9850% 489.9445% 527.0540% 566.5035% 609.6530% 656.7825% 710.6220% 777.0815% 856.0410% 964.84
5% 1,150.740% 2,562.42
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
13
Forecast: Largest Gas Field
Summary:Entire range is from 56.42 to 17,997.88Filter range is from 0.00 to InfinityAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 16.82
Statistics: Forecast valuesTrials 50,000Mean 5,349.89Median 4,245.12Mode ---Standard Deviation 3,762.18Variance 14,153,961.25Skewness 1.22Kurtosis 3.97Coefficient of Variability 0.7032Minimum 56.42Maximum 17,997.88Range Width 17,941.46Mean Standard Error 16.82
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
14
Forecast: Largest Gas Field (continued)
Percentiles: BCFG100% 56.42
95% 1,253.7390% 1,631.1285% 1,944.4880% 2,245.6275% 2,536.3870% 2,839.9565% 3,159.1160% 3,492.0055% 3,851.6350% 4,245.0845% 4,667.6640% 5,159.4735% 5,708.5430% 6,349.4225% 7,104.0520% 8,079.1515% 9,322.7210% 11,004.43
5% 13,523.840% 17,997.88
End of Forecasts
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
15
Assumptions
Assumption: Number of Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 1Mean 98.54 99.54Standard Deviation 46.84 46.84
Selected range is from -Infinity to 359.00 1.00 to 360.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 98.83 99.23Median 89.61 89.95Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 45.52 45.79Variance 2,072.04 2,096.52Skewness 1.31 1.32Kurtosis 5.57 5.56Coefficient of Variability 0.4606 0.4614Minimum 12.40 1.00Maximum 357.94 360.00Range Width 345.54 359.00Mean Standard Error 0.20 ---
0 120 240 360
Prob
abili
ty
Number of Oil Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
16
Assumption: Number of Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 12.40 1.00
95% 43.19 43.3590% 50.58 50.9085% 56.48 56.7380% 61.43 61.8575% 66.28 66.6270% 70.94 71.2165% 75.48 75.7660% 80.06 80.3555% 84.67 85.0550% 89.61 89.9545% 94.77 95.1340% 100.61 100.7135% 106.52 106.8230% 113.30 113.6625% 121.34 121.5420% 130.86 130.9615% 142.27 142.8510% 158.61 159.34
5% 186.82 187.220% 357.94 360.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
17
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 5Mean 54.88 59.88Standard Deviation 296.19 296.19
Selected range is from -Infinity to 2,995.00 5.00 to 3,000.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 54.16 54.97Median 15.06 14.98Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 151.58 149.68Variance 22,977.42 22,402.65Skewness 8.77 8.70Kurtosis 107.94 107.60Coefficient of Variability 2.80 2.72Minimum 5.01 5.00Maximum 2,952.87 3,000.00Range Width 2,947.87 2,995.00Mean Standard Error 0.68 ---
0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Prob
abili
ty
Sizes of Oil Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
18
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 5.01 5.00
95% 5.48 5.4890% 5.93 5.9485% 6.46 6.4880% 7.14 7.1175% 7.93 7.8870% 8.83 8.7965% 9.97 9.9060% 11.33 11.2555% 12.98 12.9150% 15.06 14.9845% 17.69 17.5840% 21.09 20.9135% 25.63 25.3030% 31.60 31.2225% 40.20 39.5720% 52.27 52.0115% 72.27 72.2510% 110.29 110.43
5% 205.91 209.590% 2,952.87 3,000.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
19
Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 10Mean 3,539.24 3,549.24Standard Deviation 2,241.58 2,241.58
Selected range is from -Infinity to 17,990.00 10.00 to 18,000.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 3,528.15 3,531.35Median 2,995.64 2,997.82Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 2,163.79 2,167.11Variance 4,681,986.35 4,696,369.97Skewness 1.76 1.76Kurtosis 7.64 7.67Coefficient of Variability 0.6133 0.6137Minimum 279.50 10.00Maximum 17,966.25 18,000.00Range Width 17,686.75 17,990.00Mean Standard Error 9.68 ---
0 6,000 12,000 18,000
Prob
abili
ty
GOR in Oil Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
20
Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 279.50 10.00
95% 1,150.81 1,159.9690% 1,422.12 1,430.0285% 1,641.35 1,647.1980% 1,843.47 1,843.2375% 2,034.81 2,030.0170% 2,222.44 2,213.8965% 2,402.66 2,399.1760% 2,590.05 2,589.3555% 2,789.80 2,787.7350% 2,995.60 2,997.8245% 3,228.19 3,223.7740% 3,472.20 3,470.8235% 3,751.21 3,746.0630% 4,056.96 4,059.7425% 4,414.24 4,427.7020% 4,851.46 4,876.5915% 5,443.60 5,457.0610% 6,286.88 6,285.00
5% 7,742.63 7,740.870% 17,966.25 18,000.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
21
Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 4Mean 6.72 10.72Standard Deviation 3.37 3.37
Selected range is from -Infinity to 26.00 4.00 to 30.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 10.70 10.69Median 10.01 10.00Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 3.29 3.29Variance 10.82 10.84Skewness 1.38 1.39Kurtosis 5.79 5.88Coefficient of Variability 0.3075 0.3080Minimum 4.58 4.00Maximum 29.96 30.00Range Width 25.38 26.00Mean Standard Error 0.01 ---
0 10 20 30
Prob
abili
ty
LGR in Oil Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
22
Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 4.58 4.00
95% 6.75 6.7590% 7.27 7.2785% 7.66 7.6780% 8.02 8.0275% 8.36 8.3570% 8.68 8.6865% 9.01 9.0060% 9.32 9.3255% 9.67 9.6550% 10.01 10.0045% 10.38 10.3640% 10.78 10.7635% 11.21 11.2030% 11.70 11.6925% 12.25 12.2520% 12.93 12.9315% 13.79 13.7910% 15.00 15.00
5% 17.07 17.040% 29.96 30.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
23
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 1Mean 76.43 77.43Standard Deviation 36.40 36.4
Selected range is from -Infinity to 279.00 1.00 to 280.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 76.92 77.18Median 69.67 69.96Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 35.33 35.58Variance 1,248.16 1,265.73Skewness 1.33 1.32Kurtosis 5.59 5.57Coefficient of Variability 0.4593 0.4609Minimum 8.73 1.00Maximum 279.34 280.00Range Width 270.61 279.00Mean Standard Error 0.16 ---
0 100 200 300
Prob
abili
ty
Number of Gas Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
24
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 8.73 1.00
95% 34.01 33.7990% 39.69 39.6485% 44.21 44.1780% 48.07 48.1575% 51.83 51.8570% 55.37 55.4165% 58.78 58.9460% 62.29 62.5055% 65.97 66.1650% 69.67 69.9645% 73.74 73.9940% 77.96 78.3235% 82.60 83.0730% 87.93 88.3825% 93.92 94.5020% 101.19 101.8215% 110.56 111.0610% 123.44 123.88
5% 144.67 145.560% 279.34 280.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
25
Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 30Mean 329.31 359.31Standard Deviation 1,777.14 1,777.14
Selected range is from -Infinity to 17,970.00 30.00 to 18,000.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 324.07 329.81Median 90.55 89.86Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 903.49 898.05Variance 816,287.36 806,495.51Skewness 8.83 8.70Kurtosis 110.24 107.60Coefficient of Variability 2.79 2.72Minimum 30.01 30.00Maximum 17,684.84 18,000.00Range Width 17,654.83 17,970.00Mean Standard Error 4.04 ---
0 6,000 12,000 18,000
Prob
abili
ty
Sizes of Gas Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
26
Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 30.01 30.00
95% 32.85 32.8890% 35.59 35.6385% 38.80 38.8580% 42.67 42.6875% 47.29 47.2670% 52.93 52.7665% 59.38 59.4260% 67.56 67.5255% 77.76 77.4850% 90.55 89.8645% 106.34 105.4640% 126.84 125.4935% 153.54 151.7730% 189.36 187.3325% 240.41 237.4020% 317.67 312.0715% 440.23 433.5110% 656.88 662.58
5% 1,225.54 1,257.560% 17,684.84 18,000.00
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
27
Assumption: Liquids in Gas Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersLocation 0.00 1Mean 21.26 22.26Standard Deviation 3.33 3.33
Selected range is from -Infinity to 34.00 1.00 to 35.00
Statistics: Simulated values Theoretical valuesTrials 50,000 ---Mean 22.23 22.24Median 21.99 22.00Mode --- ---Standard Deviation 3.32 3.31Variance 11.04 10.93Skewness 0.4148 0.4172Kurtosis 3.14 3.16Coefficient of Variability 0.1495 0.1486Minimum 11.68 1.00Maximum 35.00 35.00Range Width 23.32 34.00Mean Standard Error 0.01 ---
0 10 20 30 40
Prob
abili
ty
Liquids in Gas Fields
13220101North Sakhalin BasinMonte Carlo Results
28
Assumption: Liquids in Gas Fields (continued)
Percentiles: Simulated values Theoretical values100% 11.68 1.00
95% 17.20 17.2590% 18.16 18.1985% 18.83 18.8680% 19.37 19.4275% 19.87 19.9070% 20.33 20.3565% 20.75 20.7760% 21.17 21.1855% 21.57 21.5950% 21.99 22.0045% 22.41 22.4140% 22.84 22.8435% 23.27 23.2930% 23.77 23.7825% 24.30 24.3220% 24.93 24.9315% 25.68 25.6710% 26.64 26.62
5% 28.14 28.100% 35.00 35.00
End of Assumptions
Simulation started on 4/5/2011 at 6:21 PMSimulation stopped on 4/6/2011 at 4:15 PM