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Doculment of
The World Bank FILE CrOXFOR OMCIAL USE ONLY
epot Nb.P-2851-TH
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION
OF THE
PRESIDENT OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
TO THE
EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
ON A
PROPOSED LOAN
TO THE
KINGDOM OF THAILAND
FOR AN
INLAND WATERWAYS AND COASTAL PORTS PROJECT
June 12, 1980
This docment h* a rsricted distibutin ad may be wed by recipient only in the pednorume ofthir oflr dtis. its contet my not otherwis be dibelod withou Wod Bawk todzare.
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CURRENCY EQUIIVALENTS
Currency Unit: Baht (B)
B 1 - US$0.05B 1 million = US$50,000US$ 1 - B 20
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
1 meter (m) - 3.28 feet (ft)1 cubic meter (cu m) = 1.307 cubic yards1 metric ton (mt) = 0.98 long ton
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB - Asian Development BankBCEOM - Bureau Central pour les Equipements d'Outre Merdwt - dead weight tonEGAT - Electricity Generating Authority of ThailandETO - Express Transport OrganizationFMO - Fish Marketing OrganizationLWOST - Low Water Ordinary Spring TidesMOC - Ministry of CommunicationsRID - Royal Irrigation DepartmentTPU - Transport Planning Unit
THAI FISCAL YEAR
October 1 - September 30
FOR OFFICIAL USE OiNLY
THAILAND
INLAND WATERWAYS AND COASTAL PORTS PROJECT
Loan and Project Summary
Borrower: Kingdom of Thailand
Beneficiary: Harbour/i Department, Ministry of Communications
Amount: $53 million equivalent
Term: 20 years including 5 years of grace, with interest at8.25% per annum.
ProjectDescription: The proposed project aims at developing the inland
waterways and coastal ports subsectors which at presentperform below attainable output and efficiency levels, andat utilizing their inherent capacity for energy and costefficient transportation. Technical assistance andtraining would help strengthen the Harbour Departmentwhich is responsible for these subsectors.
The Inland Waterways component of the project consists of:(a) increasing the width and depth of the navigationchannels in the rivers Chao Phrya/2 and Nan; (b) construct-ing two river ports at Nakhon Sawan and Taphan Hin; (c)providing a demonstration barge convoy of steel barges anda pusher tug; and (d) consultancy services and training.On completion of the project, the two rivers will benavigable year round with a minimum water depth of 1.7 m,which would help increase the low-cost barge traffic ofbulk commodities. About 60-65% of all benefits willaccrue from transport of rice and maize, the principalexport produce of the project region covering 20 changwatsand including about 11 million people.
The Coastal Ports component consists of: (a) dredging
the entrance channels of two of the more important ports,Bandon and Pattani; (b) technical assistance and procure-ment of a trailing hopper dredger; (c) geophysical andhydrographic studies of the channels including borings andtracer studies to determine spoil dumping areas; and (d)
/1 As spelt in Thailand.
/2 Also spelt as Chao Phya.
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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consultancy services and training. Improvement ofmaintenance dredging capacity and procedures will benefitabout 40 coastal ports and their hinterland where shippingand fishing remain principal economic activities. Thecapital dredging operations in Bandon and Pattani portswill remove the present constraints of ship movementsbeing limited to high tides. Both the inland waterwaysand coastal ports project components are economicallyjustified.
No undue risks or technical difficulties are expected inrespect to the proposed project.
Estimated Cost: Local Foreign Total------($ million)-----
A. Inland Waterways
Civil works 15.40 17.00 32.40Mechanical and floating equipment 0.60 6.70 7.30Technical assistance and training - 3.00 3.00Land costs 1.10 - 1.10
Subtotal 17.10 26.70 43.80
ContingenciesPrice 5.00 8.35 13.35Physical 2.20 2.75 4.95
Total 24.30 37.80 62.10
B. Coastal Ports
Dredging works 1.55 4.50 6.05Hopper dredger 0.50 5.00 5.50Technical assistance and training - 1.80 1.80
Subtotal 2.05 11.30 13.35
ContingenciesPrice 0.75 2.50 3.25Physical 0.30 1.40 1.70
Total 3.10 15.20 18.30
Total Project Costs 27.40 53.00 80.40
Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total------($ million)------
IBRD - 53-00 53-00Government 27.40 - 27.40
Total 27.40 53.00 80.40
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EstimatedDisbursements: Bank FY 1981 1982 1983 1984
----------- ($ million)-----------
Annual 5.72 20.14 19.66 7.48
Cumulative 5.72 25.86 45.52 53.00
Rate of Return: 20%
Staff Appraisal No. 2940-TH, dated June 3, 1980Report:
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THEINTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORSON A PROPOSED LOAN TOTHE KINGDOM OF THAILAND
FOR AN INLAND WATERWAYS AND COASTAL PORTS PROJECT
1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposedloan to the Kingdom of Thailand for the equivalent of $53 million to help
finance the Inland Waterways and Coastal Ports Project. The loan would have aterm of 20 years, including 5 years of grace, with interest at 8.25% per
annum.
PART I - THE ECONOMY /1
2. A Basic Economic Report entitled "Thailand - Toward a Strategy ofFull Participation" (2059-TH) was distributed to the Executive Directors onSeptember 18, 1978. The Report concludes that Thailand's rapid economicgrowth over the past 15 years has led to a significant reduction in absolutepoverty, but that certain income groups have lagged behind this progress. Itidentifies the essential characteristics of these groups and points to theneed for continued overall development as well as the initiation of specificmeasures to deal with the poverty problem, particularly in rural areas. Itfurther discusses the constraints on the successful implementation of these
policies. Country data are given in Annex I.
Recent Political Developments
3. The frequent changes at the top levels of government, which havecharacterized recent political developments in Thailand, have mainly reflecteddifferences in view about Thailand's external relations and about the politi-cal decision-making process within the country. The Government, formed inNovember 1977 under the prime ministership of General Kriangsak Chomanan,moved to strengthen relations with Thailand's ASEAN partners and tried tostabilize and improve relations with its Indochinese neighbors. Progress inthe latter was, however, affected by Viet Nam's involvement in Kampuchea andthe flood of Khmer refugees into Thailand. These developments and thenecessary actions related to caring for the refugees have diverted a consi-derable amount of high-level government attention and led to significantincreases in military and other expenditures. General Kriangsak formed hissecond administration in April 1979 but came under mounting criticism in theNational Assembly for his economic policies, particularly the petroleum priceincreases and his handling of the refugee problem. Faced with waningpolitical support and increasing public criticism, General Kriangsak under-took an extensive cabinet reorganization in February 1980. However, thisfailed to engender the necessary political stability and, facing a noconfidence vote precipitated by petroleum price and electricity tariff
increases, his government resigned on February 29, 1980.
/1 Parts I and II are substantially the same as those presented in thePresident's Report for the Mae Moh Lignite Project (P-2800-TH) datedMay 1, 1980, submitted to the Executive Directors under cover ofSecretary's Memorandum, R80-107.
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4. General Prem Tinsulanonda was elected by the/National Assembly tosucceed Kriangsak as Prime Minister after receiving the support of nearly allmajor political parties. General Prem's new government, formed on March 14,1980 included leaders from the political parties which supported him. OnMarch 28, 1980, General Prem announced his government's policies on a numberof issues including economic and social development. The statement placeshigh and immediate priority on accelerating rural development, raising ruralincomes and on measures to improve health and education. Particular emphasisis given to generating more jobs and it is expected that a rural public worksprogram similar to the 1975/76 Tambon Program will be a major element in thisstrategy. The Government also intends to exert efforts to contain inflationand a more gradual adjustment of energy prices is foreseen at the same time
that domestic energy resources are being developed. Reforms in monetary andfiscal policy and efforts to improve the trade balance through improved exportperformance are also called for. As discussed below these reforms arecritical to increasing resource mobilization (especially in the public sector)and reducing the current account deficit.
Past Trends and Recent Changes
5. Thailand's economic performance since 1960 has been good. Theaverage annual growth of real GDP from 1960 to 1979 was 7.9%, or about 4.8%per capita. Real agricultural growth of nearly 5% was a leading factorsustaining this expansion. The cultivated area increased by about 4% a year,water control was improved, irrigation was expanded and the cultivation ofrelatively new crops, including maize, cassava, kenaf, sugar and rubber, grewrapidly. Agriculture has also been a major contributor to export growth. Asa share of GDP, domestic savings fluctuated between 19% and 24%, and totalinvestment between 20% and 27%. The high level of private investmentcontributed to a real industrial growth of 10% per year since 1970. All thiswas achieved with a limited inflow of external resources and, until recently,the debt service gap remained quite low.
6. The rate of GDP growth declined in the 1970s to 7.6% p.a from 8.1%in the 1960s. In addition to external factors (the oil price increase of 1973and its aftermath), the major domestic factor responsible for this decline hasbeen the increasing scarcity of land. Production has been pushed into lessfertile soils causing a decline in the rate of agricultural growth to about4.6% p.a. since 1970 compared to 5.7% in the 1960s. In recent years,inflation has accelerated, amounting to 7% in 1977, 8% in 1978 and 10% in1979. The inflation in the last half of 1979 was more than 14% and theexpected rates are 14% in 1980, 13% in 1981 and 12% in 1982. Substantialgrowth of the agricultural sector contributed to rapid expansion of 11.7% ofthe economy in 1978, but a combination of poor agricultural output and adverseeffects of external factors, primarily the oil price increase, reduced 1979growth to an estimated 6.7%, with little improvement expected for 1980. Thebudget deficit is expected to exceed $1.0 billion in FY80 as a result ofincreased military expenditures, an increase in civil service pay, andincreased subsidies to public enterprises as a result of the failure to raiseelectricity tariffs sufficiently to offset fully oil price increases.
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7. Thailand's terms of trade and prospects for agricultural exports are
now less favorable than in the early 1970s. Thailand is facing restrictionson some of its exports to the European Economic Community, including cassavaand canned pineapple, and its sugar exports are limited by the InternationalSugar Agreement. The balance of payments, which recorded surpluses in1973-74, has since been running large deficits. The current account deficitreached $1.1 billion, or 5% of GDP in 1978 and is estimated to be $2.2 billionin 1979, or about 8.0% of GDP. The overall balance-of-payments deficit for1979 is estimated at nearly $600 million. The Government has significantlyincreased its foreign borrowing from traditional sources, from the Eurodollarmarket and from IMF to finance these deficits. Foreign exchange reserves havealso been used extensively. To contain the balance-of-payments deficit, theGovernment, in March 1978, raised tariffs on 141 "nonessential" imports andincreased excise taxes on a number of items, most notably gasoline. Theprices of petroleum products were raised in January 1979, July 1979, andFebruary 1980, for a cumulative increase of about 100% for gasoline. Thecurrent price of gasoline is the equivalent of about $1.80 per gallon (US).After a proposed power tariff increase of about 55% was rejected in November1979, a lesser tariff increase of about 38% was finally implemented inFebruary 1980. This is insufficient to cover the increased cost of fuel, andsubsidies from the oil fund (partly funded by revenues from other petroleumproducts) continue. Apart from raising prices, the Government has also takensome energy conservation measures to contain the oil import bill which isexpected to jump by $1.0 billion in 1980 despite the fact that there will beonly a small increase in the volume of imports. In recent years, governmentusury laws limiting borrowing and lending rates have become binding asinflation has exerted upward pressure on interest rates. The combination ofhigh inflation rates and the interest ceilings has reduced real interest ratesto near zero or negative levels in the past few years which has led to a sharpdrop in marginal savings rates and high investment demand for funds. UntilJanuary 1980 term deposit rates were limited to 7% for maturities less thanone year and 8% for more than one year. Lending rate limits were fixed at12.5% and 15%. Liquidity constraints prevented all the demand from beingsatisfied and led to de facto credit allocation by the financial sector. Witha view to encouraging domestic savings and curtailing the flight of capitalabroad, the Government raised interest rate limits by 3 percentage points forboth borrowing and lending at the beginning of 1980. The response to thischange has been favorable on saving, the domestic demand for funds, andexternal capital flows. It is too soon to tell whether the adjustment issufficient, but currently market lending rates are slightly below the limits.
8. The large growth in incomes over the last two decades has notbeen equitably distributed throughout the country, and at present there arevery significant regional differentials in incomes and access to economic andsocial infrastructure. The regions are very different in terms of topography,climate, soils, urbanization, etc., and present quite distinct problems forfuture development. The Central Region, including Bangkok, has the highestper capita income and is better served by roads, telecommunications, schools,public health and other services than the other three regions, the North,Northeast and South. Within the regions also there is considerable variation:
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farmers who have diversified into cash crops have generally enjoyed sub-stantial growth in real incomes while the incomes of those who have beenunable or unwilling to shift out of subsistence rice culture have stagnated.Recent research has shown that inappropriate cropping patterns and agri-cultural techniques are major factors in much of the rural poverty. Thisis most conspicuously the case of the rainfed rice farmers in the Northeastand North. Since there is a well functioning labor market, the low incomes ofthis large group have tended to depress unskilled wages throughout theeconomy.
9. Real concern over the plight of the poor is growing, and observableimprovements in rural living standards is being seen as a major factor inpromoting political stability. In the past several years the Government hasinitiated efforts to increase the flow of public resources to the poor ruralareas, including the Tambon program of direct transfers to villages in 1976,the drought relief program in 1977, the flood relief program in 1978, and thenew village development program in 1979. These programs have been designed toproduce quick and tangible political as well as economic results, but consid-erably more attention and resources need to be devoted to rural development ifthese programs are to have lasting impact. The Government is stronglycommitted to rural development and raising rural incomes and is expected tolaunch a major public works program in the near future. While the absorptivecapacity in rural areas has increased since the Tambon program of 1975-76,there is some concern about the efficacy of crash programs in view of theresource constraints facing the budget and the limitations of implementationcapacity at various levels of government.
Development Prospects and Constraints
10. In the coming decade, many of the positive features which helpedsustain rapid economic growth over the past two decades will continue tocontribute to future growth. These factors include a relatively equitabledistribution of rural land, responsiveness of Thai farmers to improvedtechnology, provision of infrastructure by the Government, and the dynamism ofthe private sector in both industry and agriculture. Also major gains havebeen made in family planning in recent years, slowing the annual rate ofpopulation growth from about 3% during the 1960s to an estimated 2.2% in 1979.The target for 1981 is 2.1%.
11. Some less favorable domestic factors are emerging, however. As aresult of very rapid population growth in the 1960s, projected labor forcegrowth of 3% p.a. necessitates a high rate of job creation. Past growth hasbenefited households unevenly and created further income disparities thatcould threaten the social cohesion of the country. At the same time,additional fertile land, which has supported the growth of agriculturalproduction and exports in the past, is becoming increasingly scarce. In viewof these factors, continued reliance on the past pattern of development maylead to a deceleration of agricultural and overall growth in the nextdecade, persistently large balance-of-payments deficits; higher rates ofunemployment or underemployment; and stagnating or declining real incomes of
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the poorer segments of the population, especially in rural areas and amongunskilled workers. These internal factors are complicated by the externalfactors of rapid oil price increases and recession in developed countries.The oil price increase alone will add about $1 billion to the 1980 importbill, even with no increase in volume, and the current account deficit isestimated to be at least 9% of GDP. The unfavorable external situation willrequire major domestic adjustments and it is unlikely that the overallgrowth rate will exceed about 6% in the coming years.
12. Thailand must shift its economy from a pattern of growth based onthe extension of land under cultivation and on import-substituting industriesto one based on increasingly intensive use of land and on industries producingfor domestic and export markets under competitive conditions. At the sametime it must reduce its current account deficit and increase public savings.Effective policies and programs will be necessary to ensure that economicgrowth is maintained and income disparities reduced, or at least not widenedduring this period of transition. In the past, the Government's role hasfocused primarily on short-term economic management and the provision of basiceconomic and social services. In order to achieve a relatively smoothtransition, the Government will now have to undertake more coordinatedlong-term policies and actions in areas of resource management and balancedregional development.
13. Agriculture will continue to be the dominant sector since itdirectly generates 30% of GDP, provides about 60% of total exports, andemploys 75% of the labor force. However, future growth of the sector willrequire more intensive utilization of cultivated areas, continued diversifica-tion of crops, improved cropping patterns and farming practices, and easieraccess to agricultural inputs including credit. All of these imply anincreased government role in the rural sector. But while growth in theagricultural sector may be expected to remain fairly rapid for some time tocome, the burden of sustaining future growth will have to shift progressivelyto the industrial sector. Industry, construction and services will have toprovide an increasing share of employment for the growing labor force. In1979, industrial production accounted for about one-fourth of GDP and aboutone-third of total exports. Manufactured output, which accounted for 90% ofindustrial production, achieved an export growth of 24% in 1979, almost doublethe growth rate of total exports. While continued growth of manufacturedexports is essential, the large domestic market also offers opportunities fora balanced industrial growth based on production of consumer goods, agri-cultural inputs and processing of agricultural outputs for urban consumption.Our policy dialogue will concentrate on efforts to reduce price distortions,increase availability of credit, and eliminate impediments to efficientproduction for domestic and foreign markets so that the dynamic private sectorcan realize its potential for spurring growth and creating jobs.
14. The principal objectives of the Government's Fourth Plan (1977-81)are to achieve 7% real growth, equitable distribution of income, reduction inthe rate of population growth, faster generation of employment opportunities
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and balanced regional development. Public sector development expenditureswere to double in real terms in relation to the Third Plan. However, thePlan addresses sectoral issues and strategies only in broad terms, andconcrete policies and programs to meet the Plan's economic and socialobjectives are also not spelled out in any detail. The Government has nowembarked on the preparation of the Fifth Plan (1982-86) and the agencies oftihe Government are undertaking a number of studies to help ensure that theFifth Plan provides an unambiguous basis for the allocation of resourcesand the formulation of development policies and program. These studies mayhelp identify possible areas of Bank lending for structural adjustment.
Financing Requirements
15. The implementation of policies needed for a satisfactory rate ofeconomic and social progress will necessitate a steady increase in publicexpenditures over the next few years. This will require much greater effortsto mobilize both domestic and external resources than in the past. Governmentdomestic revenue as a percentage of GDP (13.5% for 1975-79) is low compared toother developing countries at similar levels of development due to low taxrates, high exemptions and a somewhat below-average rate of compliance. Withexpenditures rising, the overall budgetary deficit in fiscal year 1979/80 isestimated at above $1.0 billion, or over 4% of GDP. The Government hasachieved a modest improvement in resource mobilization through revision of thetax structure and improved collections. Much greater efforts will be neededin the future if the reliance on foreign financing - and thereby the deficiton the current account of the balance of payments - are to be reduced inrelation to the size of the economy.
16. During the coming years, the demand for external resources willincrease. Despite an average real growth of exports of over 10% and increaseddomestic production of primary energy, the projected rise in the price ofimports - led by the price of petroleum - implies that large trade and currentaccount deficits are expected to persist through the mid-1980s. It is esti-mated that a 6% overall growth rate can be maintained and the current accountdeficit reduced to 4-5% of GDP by 1985 if appropriate policies are followed,including greater efforts in implementating energy saving measures, promotingagricultural growth and exports, reducing distortions and excessive protectionin industry, promoting more labor-intensive exports, and postponing majorcapital intensive investments until the economy can afford them. This impliesan average current deficit of $3 billion per year in 1980-85, which willrequire very large amounts of external borrowing totalling about $18 billionnet over the period.
17. Official donors, particularly Japan and the development banks, havebeen expanding their programs to meet a part of the growing resource require-ments. The rest has been financed in the Eurodollar market and bond markets,and by the utilization of IMF resources for 1978/79 totalling about $200 mil-lion, and Thailand is considering even larger drawings under standby arrange-ments. The Government has established a Foreign Loan Policy Committee to
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coordinate and approve all foreign borrowing by the public sector. The Bankof Thailand is establishing procedures for recording private borrowing abroadin order to keep track of total foreign debt. Current estimates of Thailand'sexternal borrowing requirements exceed those discussed at the last Consulta-tive Group, and the need for continued concessional aid is perhaps now moreacute. In addition, external agencies, including the Bank Group, have inrecent years increasingly concentrated project lending to Thailand in theagricultural and social sectors that have high social benefits, but lowforeign exchange savings or earnings. To achieve the level of externalresource transfer that is now required, it is necessary, in selected projectswhere the foreign exchange component is low, to finance some local currencyexpenditures. Program and structural-adjustment lending should also beconsidered.
18. By 1985, net disbursements will more than double in current termsfor both public and publicly guaranteed borrowing and private borrowing. Thedebt service ratio on public debt (4.6% in 1979) will exceed 10% by 1985, butshould decline thereafter. Assuming a significant level of concessionalassistance, the debt service ratio on total public and private civilianborrowing (currently about 15%) will rise to about 25% before declining.Given the diversification of Thai commodity exports and the rapid expansion ofmanufactured exports, these debt service requirements should be sustainable ifrapid export growth continues, more domestic resources are mobilized, andeconomic stability is maintained.
PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN THAILAND
19. Thailand first borrowed from the Bank Group in 1950 for a railwayproject and, as of March 31,1980 had received 53 loans amounting to about$1,600 million, net of cancellations. The sectoral distribution of theseloans has been as follows: $311.5 million for transportation; $316.4 millionfor irrigation; $494 million for power/energy and rural electrification$153.0 million for telecommunications; $144.2 million for agricultural andrural development; $79.6 million for urban development; $52.3 million foreducation; and $42.5 million for industry. In addition, Thailand hasreceived six IDA credits: two credits totalling $54.5 million for education;one credit of $25.0 million for rural development; two credits totalling$12.5 million for irrigation improvement; and one credit of $33.1 million fora population project. In general, Bank Group-financed projects have beencarried out satisfactorily and in accordance with expectations. Annex IIcontains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments aswell as notes on the execution of ongoing projects as of March 31, 1980.
20. Over the past five years, the Bank has shifted its lending toThailand from a program dominated by investments in traditional infrastruc-ture projects (accounting for over 80% of the lending through FY74) to a
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program which places increasing emphasis on assisting the Government's efforts
to reach the poorer segments of its population more directly. Since FY75,investments in transportation, power, water supply, telecommunications and
industry have accounted for only about 50% of Bank Group lending and morethan half of these, in dollar terms, were for projects specifically designedto benefit the rural population. The proportion of Bank lending to the
agricultural/rural development sector has trebled, accounting for about 35%of lending operations since FY75. The design of projects in this sector has
also changed, from exclusively large irrigation projects to a more balancedprogram covering irrigation (including land development and support servicesto the farmer) and a variety of innovative projects to assist farmers outsidethe central flood plain (rubber replanting, livestock, agricultural exten-sion, and rural development). Projects in the social sectors which prior toFY75 were limited to three in education, accounting for 6% of the program,have both diversified and grown. In recent years education, population andlow-income housing projects have accounted for about 15% of the program.
21. The findings of the recent Basic Economic Report verify the
appropriateness of the shift mentioned above, and underscore the need tomove even further in designing programs which help the rural population,particularly those farmers in rainfed areas who have been largely bypassed byrecent economic growth. In the agricultural sector, therefore, the Bank isredoubling its efforts to develop an approach which will help to lift therainfed farmers out of a subsistence existence. A combination of education,agricultural research and extension, credit and improved infrastructure isforeseen. However, the major problem is the absence so far of a viablepackage for the poorest and most remote farmers. Expansion and improvementof irrigation systems will continue, with increased emphasis on reachingthose farmers with irrigation potential in the northern, northeastern andsouthern regions. The program of transportation, electrification, watersupply and telecommunications projects will also continue to have a ruralfocus. A key element of the strategy outlined in the Basic Economic Reportis the creation of jobs and stimulation of increased economic activityoutside of Bangkok. The bulk of the Bank Group's urban and industriallending will, therefore, be directed to projects which enhance theattractiveness of regional cities as service centers for the agriculturaleconomy of those regions. Selected projects in Bangkok will be aimed atstrengthening agencies providing essential services to the urban populationand the development of low cost, replicable programs to meet the demands ofthe urban sector, particularly the urban poor, without diverting scarceresources from other high-priority development needs.
22. The Bank's strategy of placing an increasing share of its programinto projects alleviating poverty and promoting rural development will bedifficult to execute without considerable technical assistance toward projectpreparation. The Bank's regional mission in Bangkok will continue to playa vital role in helping to identify and prepare such projects. Promotingoverall growth also has a high priority in Thailand and is a necessary element
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in the poverty alleviation strategy. The resource requirements for infra-structure development, particularly for developing energy and its domesticprimary sources, are large, and the Bank is concentrating its remainingfunds in projects where it can have a catalytic role in effecting policychanges, mobilizing other resources, and directly facilitating growth inrural areas. The Bank is also expanding its support of the industrial sectorthrough its economic and sector work as well as selected projects in orderto help promote industrial policy which favors more labor-intensive anddispersed activities to complement Thailand's efforts in poverty alleviation.
23. Bank loans and IDA credits, disbursed and outstanding, amounted to$459.3 million, as of December 31, 1978, representing about 26% of publicexternal debt (disbursed and outstanding). The Bank Group's share ofpublic debt service payments in 1978 was 29.7% or 7.1% of total debt serviceincluding private debt. This is not excessive in view of Thailand's modestoverall public external debt (8.3% of GDP in 1978). In addition, although thelevel of Bank commitments is expected to increase over the next five years,the Bank Group's share is below 30% of total public external debt as Thailandhas diversified its borrowing program. The Bank Group's share in total debtoutstanding is expected to fall below 20%, and its share of total debt servicewould not exceed 10%.
24. As of March 31, 1980, IFC had made commitments totalling about$83 million in nine projects in Thailand. IFC's investments have beenprimarily in industry and in the development of financial institutions aimedat mobilizing domestic resources and providing financing to smallerenterprises. Prospects for increased IFC operations in Thailand have beenenhanced by expanding private sector investment activity; consultations withthe Government have identified several areas where IFC's assistance may beneeded.
PART III - TRANSPORT SECTOR
General
25. During the last 10-15 years, the Thai economy grew at a rapid paceand annual transport growth was about 8% for freight and 12% for passengertraffic. This growth was supported by large government investments fortransport, mostly in roads, and generally liberal transport policies whichstimulated a competitive transport industry, particularly the privately ownedroad transport. Today, virtually the entire primary (national) roads systemserving interprovincial trade is complete, and significant progress has beenmade toward the build-up of the secondary (provincial) system. Railways,inland waterways and coastal shipping, confined to specific locations andhandling mostly bulk commodities, have also grown, but at a modest rate.
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26. With the progress made in developing primary and secondary roads,future transport requirements are shifting toward: first, an extension ofroads to the tertiary level in support of the needs of rural communities;second, to the upgrading of the performance of other modes of transport; andthird, to the removal of specific capacity bottlenecks in the nationaltransport system such as the Port of Bangkok. Tertiary roads are under-developed and inadequately maintained. The railways, inland waterwiays andcoastal shipping, for their part, perform at below attainable output andefficiency levels, and their capacity for energy-efficient transport isunderutilized. The Port of Bangkok, where ship waiting time is rapidlybuilding up, will soon be critically congested.
27. Transport Demand. All modes combined, freight transport in Thailandis in the order of over 50 million tons and 14 billion ton-km per annum.Roads generate about 70% of ton-km, followed by the railways with 20% andinland waterways with about 10%. An estimated 30-50% of all freight isagricultural produce, of which about one half is exported, most of it throughthe Port of Bangkok and the eastern seaboard port facilities. The direction,composition and size of traffic flows reflect the country's generally ruralcharacter, the agricultural strength of the Central Region and Bangkok'scentral location and dominance as the country's principal port and consumptioncenter.
28. Transport Investments. During the Third Five-Year Development Plan(1972-76), Thailand's public sector investments in transport were aboutB 21 billion in current prices, and under the current Fourth Plan (1977-81),capital expenditures are estimated at B 28 billion. Transport's share ofpublic development expenditures, 20% in 1972-76, is ex,pected to drop to about11% in 1977-81 mainly due to the primary road system now being virtuallycomplete. In both Plan periods, road infrastructure received nearly 80% ofall funds allocated for the transport sector. However, within the roadssector, tertiary roads are expected to gradually increase their share from10% in 1972-76 to 25% in 1977-81.
29. Transport Planning and Coordination. The Ministry of Communications(MOC) is responsible for transport policy, coordination and planning. The1982-86 Transport Plan is currently under preparation. With increasinginterest in rural development, the Government is expected to continue raisinginvestments on roads benefitting agricultural production and the ruralpopulation. Moreover, given the worsening energy situation, the Plan isexpected to pay greater attention to the development of energy-efficientmodes, such as the inland waterways and coastal shipping. On the recommenda-tion of the Bank, a Transport Planning Unit (TPU) was set up in 1974 in MOC toact as the focal point of transport planning, coordination, and policy review.The Unit, with technical assistance provided under the Bank-financed SixthHighway Project (Loan 1519TH), is currently participating in preparing theFifth Five-Year Transport Development Plan (1982-86). Among the main issuesit will address are the transport policy implications of rising fuel costs.TPU is also engaged in studying road user taxation.
Transport Infrastructure
30. National Roads. By traffic volumes, network length, area coverageand capital expenditures, roads are Thailand's most important transportinfrastructure. The Department of Highways (DOH) competently administers and
maintains the national as well as the provincial roads systems. Nationalhighways, the primary roads system, total nearly 14,000 km. They radiate fromBangkok to the national borders, and are mostly paved. Built or reconstructedto present standards in the last 20 years, many of these roads, however, willsoon reach full capacity or require reconstruction as a result of uninter-
rupted traffic growth.
31. Provincial Roads. The secondary roads system, totalling about30,000 km, serves provincial needs in linking changwat capitals to transportsystems and other changwat towns. The length of roads under this categoryincreases several thousand km each year as roads under the jurisdiction ofother agencies are classified and transferred to DOH. About 15,000 km of
the provincial roads have had some improvement and about 8,000 kms of themare paved; the rest are tracks or substandard earth and gravel roads, someimpassable in the rainy season.
32. Rural Roads. Thailand has an estimated 40,000-50,000 km of
tertiary roads based on inventories which are incomplete and generallyout-of-date. Standards vary between tracks and engineered roads of variouslevels. Planning is deficient and maintenance, on average, poor ornonexistent. The responsibility for tertiary roads is being shared withlittle coordination by several Government agencies, of which the mostimportant is the Office of Accelerated Rural Development (ARD). Planning,construction methods and maintenance of tertiary roads need to be improved,and the jurisdiction of rural roads agencies needs to be redefined. To dealwith these issues, the Government is undertaking a study by consultantsunder the Bank-financed Sixth Highway Project (Loan 1519-TH).
33. Railways. The railway system, comprising mainly meter gaugesingle track, totals 3,800 route-km, of which 600 km are branchlines. Thissystem, radiating from Bangkok to outlying provinces, is of primaryimportance for carrying long haul, bulk commodities, including rice. TheState Railway of Thailand (SRT) is an operationally efficient and well-managed state enterprise but its finances are weak because of inadequateand infrequent adjustments in passenger and freight tariffs. Under thecurrent Five-Year Plan, and with Bank assistance (Fifth Railway Project,Loan 1662-TH), SRT is rehabilitating plant and equipment and expandingline and rolling stock capacity. An engineering study for extending therailway from Chacheonsao, near Bangkok, to the deep-water port at Sattahip isbeing completed and construction is scheduled to start by late 1980.
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34. Aviation. Thailand's international and domestic air transport iscentered at Don Muang airport in the vicinity of Bangkok. Airport capacityis now being used close to its maximum and plans are under study for furtherexpansion. Two other international airports, Had Yai near the Malaysianborder and Chieng Mai in the north, are receiving jet planes. There areanother 40 airfields of various sizes, of which about half receive scheduledflights. Domestic air transport is provided by Thai Airways, and the ThaiInternational Airways is the international carrier. Both airlines aregovernment-owned.
35. Ports. Thailand has at present two deep-water ports - Bangkok andSattahip. Two other potential deep-water ports, Songkhla and Phuket, arelocated in the south and, on the basis of a study now in progress, the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB) is expected to finance construction of these portsstarting in 1983. Virtually all of Thailand's commercial traffic is handledthrough the Port of Bangkok, except that petroleum products are handled atSri Racha, and agricultural bulk exports at Mah Boon Krong and the deep-water anchorage of Ko Sichang. These loading and unloading facilities arelocated on the eastern shore. During the last 10 years, annual trade growthhas been about 10% on average. In 1979, imports totalled 6.4 million tonsand exports 12.7 million tons. The present capacity of the Port of Bangkokwould not be able to handle the projected increases in external trade during1980-85. A proposed Bank project is under preparation to improve thehandling capacity of the existing berths at Klong Toei (Bangkok) and toconvert the naval port of Sattahip into a commercial port for containertraffic and agricultural bulk exports. There are about 40 shallow draftports and inlets handling about 3.3 million tons annually of petroleumproducts and fish (see para. 43).
36. Inland Waterways. Thailand has a comprehensive and developedinland waterways system which covers well over one-third of the country andextends over some 1,300 km of navigable waterways. Most of this length isin the Northern Corridor between Bangkok and Uttaradit along the rivers ChaoPhrya and Nan, and the remainder along the Mekong river on the Thai-Laotianborder. River levels and flows and navigation are seasonally influenced.With the arrival of the monsoon in May, water levels rise until they peak inAugust, thereafter declining to December followed by the dry season fromJanuary to May when water levels are low; these influences are to someextent modified by a system of irrigation canals and single or multipurposedams. More than 100 larger terminals and a large number of minor loadingpoints are located along the waterways. Their density is highest nearpopulation centers and in the rice-exporting areas. All are privately ownedand operated and most handle only one commodity. In the rice and maize-exporting areas, a considerable number of rice mills and covered storagefacilities are located on the riverbanks. Two of the larger existingloading points on the Chao Phrya-Nan rivers are Nakhon Sawan and Taphan Hin.However, their present capacity is inadequate to handle expected trafficincreases resulting from improvement of the waterways, and new constructionis proposed under the proposed project.
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37. In 1976, barge traffic in the entire Northern corridor totalledabout 8.6 million tons, of which 6 million tons were sand, 1.3 million tonsrice, maize and other crops, and 0.7 million tons cement. Average bargehaul is 200 km. Thailand's inland waterways transport industry is highlycompetitive and free from regulation. The barge fleet consists of some4,000 units with individual capacities of between 40 and over 300 dwt with atotal capacity of 350,000 dwt, which compares to an annual sector output of8.6 million tons. There are also about 2,000-3,000 smaller units. Thebarges are of traditional design and those below 100 dwt capacity are madeof wood whereas the larger vessels are steel hulled. All barges are movedby towboats using the pull-towing astern method which requires the followingbarges to be crewed for steering and stopping the convoy. The proposedinland waterways and ports project is designed to help (a) develop thetransport potential of inland waterways; and (b) develop more efficientbarge design and methods of operation.
Bank Lending to the Sector
38. The Bank has been involved in all transport modes (except civilaviation) and has helped finance 13 transportation projects in Thailand.Three loans, totalling $20.3 million, have been made for port development.The first two port projects were completed on schedule, and the thirdproject was completed in May 1976, about two years behind schedule, largelybecause of delays in awarding civil works contracts. The Bank has made fiveloans totalling $68.7 million to help implement SRT's development plans.Four projects have been completed satisfactorily; about $7.5 million of theloan amount for the third project was cancelled when the Government chose topurchase the locomotives through direct negotiations. The Bank has made sixloans, the first in 1963 and the most recent in 1978, totalling $261.6 mil-lion, for construction and maintenance of national and provincial roads. Inaddition, about 1,300 km of village access roads are being constructed by theOffice of Accelerated Rural Development under the Northeast Thailand RuralDevelopment Project (Loan 1198T-TH). The five completed roads projects wereexecuted efficiently and the quality of construction throughout was good.On the first four projects there were savings in cost. Domestic pricesremained stable and there was strong competition among contractors. However,on the fifth project there were cost overruns and delays caused by sharpincreases in prices which required rebidding of several contracts. Thesixth project helped to strengthen planning in the Department of Highwaysand thru TPU in MOC. It included studies leading to the preparation ofprojects for rural roads, provincial roads, and the now proposed inlandwaterways and coastal ports. The last operations evaluation report on Loan626-TH (Fourth Highway Project) commented that the project had achieved itsobjectives; road construction costs had been overestimated as the inflationrate was slower than anticipated and traffic had grown at a rate higher thanprojected.
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PART IV - THE PROJECT
39. The proposed project was prepared by the Harbour Department withthe assistance of its consultants financed by the Bank under the SixthHighway Project (Loan 1519-TH). The Inland Waterways component is basedupon a feasibility study undertaken by Bureau Central pour les Equipmentsd'Outre Mer (BCEOM, France). The Coastal Ports component is based on astudy undertaken by consultants Maunsell and Partners (UK) in associationwith Sindhu Pulsirivong and Associates (Thailand) and Coopers and LybrandAssociates (UK). The project was appraised in November 1979. A StaffAppraisal Report entitled, "Inland Waterways and Coastal Ports Project" (No.2940-TH dated June 3, 1980) is being distributed separately. Supplementarydata are provided in Annex III. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C.from May 12 to 16, 1980. The Thai delegation was headed by H.E. Nai NikornPraisaengpetch, Charge d' Affaires a.i., Royal Thai Embassy and includedM.L. Jeongjan Kambhu, Deputy Under Secretary of State, Ministry ofCommunications and Khun Amphon Tiyabhorn, Deputy Director General, HarbourDepartment.
Project Objectives
40. The Government has, in the past, concentrated on roads to developthe transport system required for the rapidly growing national economy.This policy has been successful in linking virtually all provinces andconcurrently, an efficient road transport industry has developed. TheGovernment is now giving closer attention to tertiary roads, waterways andother modes, which have development potential. The project's mainobjectives are to: (a) improve the inland waterways system, so that it canfunction as a major carrier of import and export commodities throughout theyear for the central and northern regions; (b) improve channel maintenanceof all coastal ports and undertake capital dredging for two of the moreimportant ports, so that loss of ship time in waiting for tides is reducedand larger vessels could navigate the channels; and (c) strengthen the HarbourDepartment's capability to perform its development and maintenance functionsfor the inland waterways and coastal ports.
Description of the Project
41. Inland Waterways. Thailand's comprehensive inland waterwayssystem (Map 14857R) extends about 1,300 km from Bangkok to Uttaradit in thecentral region and comprises: (a) the Chao Phrya river from the Gulf ofThailand to Nakhon Sawan (305 km); (b) the Nan river from Nakhon Sawan toTaphan Hin (78 km) and from there to Uttaradit (274 km); (c) the Pasak riverfrom Ayutthya, where it enters the Chao Phrya river, up to the Rama IV dam(45 km); and (d) the sections of the Noi and Suphan Tha Chin rivers (about100 km), which offer a bypass of a difficult section of the Chao Phryariver. Except for the section from the Gulf to Ayutthya, navigation in theNan and Chao Phrya rivers is restricted by shallow water during the low
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water season from January to May. As a result, barge traffic is forced toreduce payloads (on the upper Chao Phrya and Nan rivers), or detour on slowand more costly routes on the lower Chao Phrya river (via the Noi or SuphanTha Chin rivers), or cease operations. Waterways traffic is greatly reducedon the upstream section and large quantities of agricultural bulkcommodities, which are better suited to barge traffic, have to be carried byroad.
42. The Inland Waterways component of the project includes: (a) dredginga channel 40 meters wide and 2.2 meters deep (1.7 meters available depth)through each of the shoal areas on the upper and lower sections of the ChaoPhrya and Nan rivers; (b) providing river flow works comprising bottompanels and/or groins and low dikes at each of the dredged shoal areas tohelp concentrate the available dry season flow in the reduced width of theriver, thus reducing the maintenance dredging required for the new channel;(c) construction of river ports at Nakhon Sawan and Taphan Hin with bothalongside and dolphin type berths, cargo-handling facilities, mechanicalequipment and survey and miscellaneous maintenance equipment; (d) procurementof a demonstration set of four 700 ton, 45 meter steel barges and one 550 hppusher tug; maintenance and dredging equipment comprising three cuttersuction dredgers complete with floating delivery pipes for maintenancedredging, and three dredger attendant tugs; (e) engineering services forfinal engineering of the Nan River works, procurement of equipment, andsupervision of contracts; and (f) technical assistance and training tostrengthen the Harbour Department.
43. Coastal Ports. Despite recent improvements in land transport,coastal ports and shipping remain essential parts of the transport andeconomic system in Southern Thailand. There are about 40 shallow draftseaports and inlets ranging from small fishing and cargo wharves of purelylocal importance to larger regional ports with annual volumes of severalhundred thousand tons of cargo (Map 14856R). Most of these ports arelocated on the southern peninsula and are owned and managed by localgovernments or private operators. These ports also serve as bases formarine fishing on which the economic well-being of coastal communitiesdepends. About 2.5 million tons of cargo and petroleum products and over1.0 million tons of fish are annually loaded or discharged at these ports.The shallow depth of the port access channels is the principal constraintunder which coastal shipping operates.
44. The Coastal Ports component of the project includes: (a) dredgingthe entrance channel of the port at Bandon to a depth of 4 meters at lowwater ordinary spring tide (LWOST) with a channel 60 meters wide and 20 kmlong; (b) dredging the entrance channel of the port of Pattani to a depthof 2.5 meters (LWOST) with a channel 60 meters wide and 5 km long; (c)geophysical and hydrographic studies of the channels at Bandon and Pattaniincluding borings and tracer studies to determine dumping areas for dredgedsoil; (d) provision of a shallow draft (2 m) self-propelled trailing hopper
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maintenance dredger with a capacity of 400 cu meter; (e) engineeringservices for final engineering, bid evaluation and supervision of contracts;and (f) technical assistance and training for the Harbour Department.
45. Technical Assistance and Training. By March 31, 1981, a programof technical assistance and training will be prepared and implemented inconsultation with the Bank to help strengthen the Harbour Department smanagement and improve its waterways and coastal ports operations.(Section 3.08 of the draft Loan Agreement.) Consultants services providedfor the Inland Waterways component include: (a) dredging and river worksmaintenance operations and hydrographic surveying; (b) port operations anddocumentation; and (c) river maintenance planning and statistical records.Similar services for Coastal Ports component will be provided for: (a)planning and management of maintenance, economic selection of channel depthsand statistical records; (b) dredger operations and maintenance; and (c)channel surveys. The staff training programs for both inland waterways andcoastal ports components include training overseas for 12 staff members inplanning, dredging management, collection of statistics and managementinformation.
46. Navigable Depths in Sections of Inland Waterways. The design ofcivil works to achieve 1.7 m navigable depth during the dry season isbased upon a given minimum flow in each river section. Assurances have beenreceived that these requirements are consistent with the normal releasesfrom the controlling dams during the low water season by the RoyalIrrigation Department (RID) and the Electricity Generating Authority ofThailand (EGAT), except in an abnormally dry year. The Government willrequire the above agencies, controlling release of water from the variousdams, to ensure that minimum water flow is assured in lower and upper ChaoPhrya and Nan rivers during the low water season (Section 4.04 of the draftLoan Agreement). Such water releases would not adversely affect other usersof water. Large volumes of sand are dredged from the lower Chao Phrya riverand delivered by barge for use by the construction industry in Bangkok. Theconsiderable enlargement of the river section thus created lowers the watersurface level in that area and jeopardizes the available water depth inshoal areas upstream of the dredged area during the dry season flow. Toensure 1.7 m available depth in the low water season, commercial dredgersmust be licensed and controlled to operate either downstream of Ayutthya orupstream of the Chainat Dam. During negotiations assurances were obtainedthat commercial sand dredging will not be permitted in the Chao Phrya riverbetween Ayutthya and Chainat Dam (Section 4.05 of the draft LoanAgreement), unless there is excessive accumulation of sand in the section.
47. Land for River Ports. Land required for construction of the tworiver ports, about 26 ha at Nakhon Sawan and 10 ha at Taphan Hin, should beacquired by the Government so that construction can start not later thanApril 1, 1982. During negotiations assurances were obtained that theacquisition of required land will be completed not later than December 31,1981 (Section 3.05 of the draft Loan Agreement).
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48. Leasing Tug and Barges. The pusher tug and steel barges are beingprovided to demonstrate their advantages in load capacity and costefficiency to promote large-scale use. To ensure maximum exposure, thedemonstration set will be leased to an efficient private river craftoperator and the proposed terms and conditions for leasing the craft wereagreed during negotiations (Section 3.06 of the draft Loan Agreement).Adoption of the use of pusher tugs and the heavier load carrying steelbarges will be a major improvement in waterways operations. Oncedemonstrated to be successful, ample local capital is expected to beavailable to introduce these craft on a larger scale.
49. Future Maintenance Costs. The project's capital costs include thecost of river and port works and port equipment and the costs of the pushertug and steel barges. At present, about Baht 25 m is being expended annuallyfor the maintenance of the waterways included in the project. This amountwill have to be increased substantially (to Baht 55 m in 1979 prices) tomeet the necessary maintenance expenditures, safeguard the project'sinvestment and to realize the expected benefits. During negotiations,assurances were obtained that the Harbour Department will draw up a suitableannual maintenance program not later than June 30, 1983 and satisfactoryarrangements will be made for funding the increased annual maintenancerequirements (Section 3.09 of the draft Loan Agreement). Nevertheless,sections of waterways completed earlier would be properly maintained.
Harbour Department
50. The Harbour Department, under the Ministry of Communications, isthe government agency responsible for planning, construction and maintenanceof inland waterways and maintenance and improvement of coastal ports andapproach channels in Thailand. The Department was reorganized in 1974 andis headed by a Director General with two deputies, one for administrationand the other for technical matters. There are ten divisions of which thetwo more important ones are the Technical Division (project planning) andthe Dredging and Maintenance Division (maintenance of coastal ports'channels and the inland waterways). The Department's expenditure budget forFY79 was about Baht 157 million, 60% of which was used for dredging andmaintenance. Revenues amounted to Baht 45 million, mainly from vessellicensing and piloting. The Department has about 600 officers and about1,000 personnel and labor. A fair proportion of approved positions arevacant because of unattractive employment conditions and lack of budgetappropriation. The Department needs to be strengthened in planning, projectappraisal, and managing and executing its works programs, particularly thoserelated to coastal ports. Expenditure accounting needs to be streamlinedfor effective works control. The most important function of the Departmentis to carry out dredging, particularly for coastal ports channels; however,performance has been below attainable output levels and explicit andobjective works programming criteria need to be introduced. The proposedtechnical assistance and training (para. 45) for the Harbour Department aredevised to meet these needs.
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51. Management and Maintenance of the Waterways. Under the project anew Waterways Management Division will be established, not later thanDecember 31, 1981, (Section 3.07 of the draft Loan Agreement). It willassume responsibility for all dredging and maintenance works on the ChaoPhrya and Nan rivers and the two inland ports of Nakhon Sawan and TaphanHin, to control operations on the waterways and calibrate all water levelgauges on the river to provide an appropriate reference base. Appropriatetechnical assistance will be provided to enable this Division to program andcontrol maintenance dredging and maintenance of the river training works,setting up the required data base for future planning by hydrograhicsurveying and of a comprehensive statistical system for traffic andhydrological information. Hydrographic sur-veys will be carried out annuallyprior to the dry season using the survey boat purchased with the study funds(Section 3.10 of the draft Loan Agreement). The Management Division willhave to maintain close coordination with other administrative authorities onthe river, mainly RID and EGAT.
Project Cost and Financing
52. The total cost of the project is estimated at $80.4 million(including local duties and taxes) with a foreign exchange component ofUS$53 million equivalent which would be covered by the proposed loan.The local currency cost of $27.4 million will be financed by the Government.
53. Total contingenices amount to $23 million, about 35% of base cost.Eighty percent of the cost estimates for civil works on the inland waterwaysare based upon final engineering for which 10% physical contingencies areallowed. Dredging cost estimates for the coastal ports are based on "preliminary engineering and 20% physical contingencies have been includedfor these works. The estimates for mechanical and floating equipment arebased upon recent quotations. Estimates are based on 1979 prices andinclude price escalation contingencies; assumed price increases for civilworks are 15% for 1980, 12% for 1981 and 10% for 1982 and 1983; those formechanical equipment and other direct foreign exchange costs are 10.5% for1980, 9% for 1981, 8% for 1982 and 7% for 1983. Technical assistance isexpected to involve 107 expatriate man-months, with average man-month costsestimated at $12,000 equivalent (including fees, international travel andthe local subsistence cost of about $2,000); a total of 11 man-years ofoverseas training courses are also included at an average cost of $20,000per man-year.
Procurement and Disbursement
54. The project's civil and dredging works will be executed underthree contracts and procurement of mechanical and floating equipment, undernot more than five. All contracts financed by the Bank will be awarded onthe basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with the Bankguidelines. The Government intends to levy customs duty on items procured
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under the project. A preference not exceeding 15% of the c.i.f. price, orcustoms duties, whichever is less, will be granted to local manufacturersfor procurement of mechanical and floating equipment financed by the Bank.
55. The basis for disbursement for the project items financed by theBank would be (as a percentage of total costs excluding taxes) 50% for civilworks on the inland waterways, 80% for dredging the coastal ports, and 100%for mechanical and floating equipment. For all consulting services andtraining, disbursement would be on the basis of 100% of total costs.It is expected that the Harbour Department will incur expenditures on finalengineering for Nan river prior to loan signature and retroactive financingof these services in an amount not exceeding $100,000 is recommended forexpenditures incurred after June 1, 1980.
User Charges
56. Based on the 1979 tax system, rates and prices and on projectedtraffic, tax revenues, mainly from licensing of barges, are estimated atabout B 23 million in 1985 and B 38 million in the year 2000. These esti-mates are in 1979 prices. By comparison, the river maintenance cost will beabout B 55 million per annum in 1979 prices of which about B 45 m are forthe Chao Phyra river and B 10 m for the Nan river. To determine thenecessary adjustments in the inland waterways and ports charges, theMinistry of Communications has agreed that TPU will extend its ongoing studyof road user taxation (financed under Loan 1519-TH) to the inland waterwayssector. Terms of reference for inland waterways and ports will generallyfollow those for roads agreed between the Government and the Bank. Duringnegotiations, assurances were obtained that this study will be completed andits recommendations furnished to the Bank not later than October 31, 1981,and that the recommendations satisfactory to the Bank and the Governmentwill be implemented promptly thereafter (Section 3.11 of the draft LoanAgreement).
Ecology
57. None of the proposed works will significantly affect the ecologiesof the rivers or ports concerned. Dredging material from the river workswill be disposed of behind the river training works and that from theentrance channel, at approved locations following tracer studies in the area.
Justification, Benefits and Risks
58. The inland waterways project will serve an area with a population ofabout 11 million people in the north and central corridor between the Gulfof Thailand and the north. It would help provide cheaper transport for themain export commodities, rice and maize, and for import commodities,primarily petroleum products. Largely, as a result of the project'sinvestments, river transport in the project area is expected to increase toabout 2.2 million tons of dry cargo and 0.3 million cu m of petroleum in1985 from the current annual traffic level of about 0.6 million tons.
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59. The benefits of cheaper transport are attributable to the diver-sion of traffic to waterways, mostly from roads, and to the increase in bargepayloads because .of the conversion of the existing barges to larger steelunits. The share of agricultural produce, primarily rice and maize, oftotal benefits is about 60-65%, followed by petroleum with a benefit shareof about 10-20%.
60. The rate of return on the Chao Phrya river investments is 26%, andthe preliminary return on the Nan river investments, based on benefits ofnormal traffic, excluding generated or diverted traffic, is 12%. Thereturn on the Nan river investments, to be calculated in conjunction withthe final engineering, is expected to be higher with the inclusion ofbenefits from diverted traffic. The Chao Phrya capital costs are basedon final design, and the overall transport demand, the modal split and unittransport cost are well established. A reduction in project benefits by 20%and a simultaneous increase in capital costs of 20% for all the projectcomponents, except the Nan river, would not lower the rate of return on theChao Phrya to below 18%, thus indicating that the investments are fairlyrisk-free.
61. The coastal ports project will benefit about 40 coastal ports andtheir hinterland, through improvements to their approach channels. Most ofthe ports are riverine and subject to continuous siltation, and frequentmaintenance dredging or capital dredging, in some cases, is required to permitpassage of cargo and fishing vessels. The dominant cargo landed is fish andfuel, and the outgoing cargo consists largely of export goods, such as timber,sent to Bangkok for shipment to final destinations.
62. The Harbour Department's dredging capacity, which is inadequate forchannel maintenance, will be increased under the project through technicalassistance and purchase of a hopper dredger. With the project, there willstill be a capacity shortfall, but before committing further capital andexpanding the dredging organization, the scope and nature of needs will beestablished under the project. To evaluate the economics of the new hopperdredger, a comparison was made with cutter suction dredgers which are thepredominant equipment type currently in use. Under conservative assumptions,the proposed new dredger represents the least cost solution and has a rateof return of 20%.
63. The economics of capital dredging for Bandon and Pattani ports wasestablished on the basis of detailed analyses taking into account existing andprojected traffic and regional transport development. Bandon port is pri-marily of importance for petroleum, general cargo and timber traffic, whilePattani has significance as a regional fishing port. The economic rate ofreturn for Bandon, calculated without benefits from potential palm oil, rubberand baryte traffic, is 16%, and that for Pattani, calculated without anybenefits to general cargo traffic, is 17%. In a sensitivity analysis, underwhich benefits are lowered by 20% and capital costs simultaneously raised by20%, the returns are 10% and 9% for the respective ports and are considered
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adequate. The weighted average economic rate of return, on the investments
under the project is 20%. No undue risks or technical difficulties areexpected in the implementation of the project.
PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY
64. The draft Loan Agreement between the Kingdom of Thailand and theBank, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4
(iii) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed separately. Specialfeatures of the proposed project are listed in Annex III.
65. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articlesof Agreement of the Bank.
PART VI - RECOMMENDATION
66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan.
Robert S. McNamaraPresident
Attachments
June 12, 1980Washington, D.C.
- 22 - ANNEX I
TUnAND - SOCL4L UMICATOUS DATA SErT Page 1 of 5
LAND Kau( SAND 5. UnLUD wRUQErCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AjAGESLAND (TROUSUD SQ. E.3 - 9DST CEST TE
TOTAL 514.0 saM SAKE NEIT HIGHERAGRICULTURAL 179.6 MOST RCENT GEOGRAPIC INCOME INCOHE
1960 Lk 1970 Lk *STITE lb REGION GctoUP I GROUP /
GNP Pr CAPITA (US$) 100.0 210.0 490.0 528.9 467.5 1097.7
ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA(xILOGRAMS OF COAL. EIQUIVALET) 64.0 247.0 308.0 371.1 262.1 730.7
POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICSPOPULATION, NiD-YEA (MILLIONS) 26.4 35.7 43.3URDU POPULATION (PEUCZT O0 TOTAL) 12.0 13.0 14.0 27.4 24.6 49.0
POPULATION POJECTIONSPOPULATION IN TEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 69.0STATIONARY POPULATIOU (MILLIONS) 105.0YER STATIOMARY POPULAION IS REACHED 2095
POPULATION DENSITYPER SQ. IM. 51.0 69.0 84.0 154.8 45.3 44.6PQ SQ. EM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 204.0 251.0 244.0 566.7 149.0 140.7
POPULATION AGZ STR0CrURZ (PUCENT)0-14 nS. 44.7 46.2 45.0 41.3 45.2 41.3
15-64 YaS. 52.6 50.8 52.0 54.9 51.9 55.365 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.7 3.0 3.0 3. 3 2.8 3.5
POPULATION GROUT RATE (PERCENT)TOTAL 2.8 3.0 2.8 Z.4 2.7 2.4UN 5.1 3.6 3. 5 4.3 4.3 4.5
CRUDME BIH RATE (PER TYOSAND) 46.0 42.0 32.0 30.2 39.4 31.1CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER TEOUSAND) 17.0 12.0 8.0 8.3 11.7 9.2GROSS UPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.2 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.2FAMILY PLANNING
ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (TEOUSANDS) .. 203.0k 527.0USERS (PERCENT OF UIED WOMEN) .. 27.4 32.3 34.1 13.2 34.7
FOOD AND NUTRITIONNDuEX OF F0OD PRODUCTION
PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 68.0 100.0 113.0 106.2 99.6 104.4
PER CAPITA SUPPLY OFCALORIES (PERCENT Of
REQUIRZHENTS) 96.0 103.0 107.0 104.1 94.7 105.0PROTEINS (GRAMS PEU DAY) 43.5 52.2 50.0 57.4 54.3 64.4
OF VWICN ANIMAL AND PULSE 8.4 .. 14.6 16.9 17.4 23.5
CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 15.0 9.0 6.0 4.8 11.4 8.6
HEALThLIFE EXPCTANCY AT sIYRH (TEARS) 51.0 57.0 61.0 61.1 54.7 60.2INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PERTHOUSAND) .. 86.0/1 68.0 46.6 68.1 46.7
ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OFPOPULATION)
TOTAL . 17.0 22.0 21.9 34.4 60.8URBAN . .. 49.0 46.2 57.9 75.7RURAL .. .. 12.0 12.8 21.2 40.0
ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PEMCENTOP POPULATION)
TOTAL .. 17.0 40.0 28.4 40.8 46.0URLAN .. 65.0 58.0 65.0 71.3 46.0RURAL .. 8.0 36.0 14.7 27.7 22.5
POPULATION PER PrsIcIAN 7800.0 8420.0 8370.0 3790.5 6799.4 2262.4POPULATION PER MURSING PERSON 4900.0 3340.0 1510.0 1107.4 1522.1 1195.4POPULATION PER HOSPITAL RED
TTAL 1340.01f 890.0 800.0 613.3 726.5 453.4LAN .. 280.0 240.0 203.6 272.7 253.1RURAL .. 1380.0 1290.0 1110.3 1404.4 2732.4
ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 31.0 33.0 23.9 27.3 22.1
ROUSINGAVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD
TOTAL 5.5/f 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.3URbAN s.3/f 5.9 5.3 *- 5.1 5.2RURAL 5.6/f 5.8 5.5 . 5.5 5.4
AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOKTOTAL .. .. 2.4 . .. 1.9L8-AN .. .. 2.2 .. .1
RURAL * -* 2.4 * * 2.5
NCCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENTOF DWELLINGS)TOTAL .. .. 24.6 .. .3.1 30.0LMBAN .. 63.O .. .t 45.1 71.7RURANL .. 13.30 . 9.9 17.3
- 23 - ANNEX I
TAtLAND - SOCUIL NDICATOtS DATA SUET Page 2 of 5
TSAILAND REFERNCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED Ar MAGES- MDST RECENT E5TIYATE) -SAME SAME NETT HIGHER
M05T RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /I GROUP /d GROUP /*
EDUCATIONADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS
PRIMARY: TOTAL 83.0 81.0 83.0 97.9 82.7 102.5MALU 88.0 85.0 86.0 96.7 87.3 106.6FDZLE 79.0 77.0 79.0 97.4 75.8 97.1
SECONDAIIY: TOTAL 12.0 18.0 26.0 42.2 21.4 33.5MALE 15.0 21.0 29.0 46.7 33.0 38.4FZHALE 9.0 15.0 22.0 40.9 15.5 30.7
VOCATIONAL ERROL. (Z OF SECONDARY) 19.0 24.0 13.0 12.5 9.8 11.5
PUPIL-TZACHER RATIOPRIMARY 36.0 35.0 30.0 32.5 34.1 35.8SECONDARY 20.0 16.0 21.0 25.8 23.4 22.9
ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCECT) 68.0 79.0 82.0 84.1 54.0 64.0
CONSUNRTIONqPASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND
POPULATION 2.0 5.0 6.4 6.1 9.3 13.5RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND
POPULATION 6.0 78.0 131.0 84.4 76.9 122.7TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND
POPULATION 2.3 7.0 17.0 22.4 13.5 38.3NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENRALnTMEUST") CIRCULATION PERTROUSAND POPULATION 11.0 24.0 .. 24.2 18.3 40.0CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE P8R CAPITA .. .. 1.7 3.6 2.5 3.7
LABOR FORCETOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 12757.0 16163.0 18514.0FEMALE (PERCENT) 48.3 47.3 46.9 36.7 29.2 25.0ACRICULTURE (PERCENT) 83.7 79.9 77.0 54.6 62.7 43.5INDUSTRT (PERCENT) 4.4 6.0 8.0 16.3 11.9 21.5
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)TOTAL 51.3 46.6 45.6 40.7 37.1 33.5MALE 52.7 49.3 48.6 49.9 48.8 48.0FEMALE 49.8 43.9 42.6 31.0 20.4 16.8
ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4
INCOME DISTRIRUTIONPERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOMERECEIVED SY
HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 21.8/h 23.8/i 14. O/ 14.9 15.2 20.8HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 50.97W 49.'7 42.2/ 46.8 48.2 52.1IOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 6.2/b 6.1/i 7.6/j 6.2 6.3 3.9LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 14.97iW 15.97i 19.I17 16.8 16.3 12.6
POVERTY TARGET GROUPSESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOMELEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA)
URBAN .. .. 126.0 193.1 241.3 270.0RURAL .. .. 94.0 128.7 136.6 183.3
ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOMELEVEL (USS PER CAPITA)
URBAN .. .. 115.0 136.8 179.7 282.5RURAL .. .. 108.0 96.8 103.7 248.9
EST.MATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTEPOVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCECT)
RBAN .. .. 15.0 32.0 24.8 20.5RURAL .. .. 34.0 52.5 37.5 35.3
Not availableINot applicable.
NOTES
/a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are populacion-weighted geometric means, *xcluding the estreamevalues of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among theindicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform.
/b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977.
/c Fast Asia & Pacific; /d Lower Middle Income ($281-550 per capita 1976); /e Intermediate MiddleIncome (5551-1ll5 per capita, 1976); if 1962; /i Percent of population in Bangkok metropolitanarea; /h 1962-63; /i 1968; /i Preliminary data for 1975/76, due to lack of data on nationalbasis. the methodology for aggregating the available regional data overstates incomes of low incomegroups and understates income of higher income groups. Thus. this data is not suitable for anyanalytical zomparisons; /k Governmenc; '1 1964-1965.
Most Rceso Estimate of GNP per capita is for 1978.
August, 1979
- 24 -ANNEX I
DIII IT OF nCDAL MDICATORI Paee 3 of 5Iotes klthough the data - draw f- ro -sure geneeIlly ,7cdged the mst at-oitnti-e and reliable, it should misc be sated that theymap not be inte-nstic..nlly copr bieb -w of the lnk of t-ndrdi-ed definitions sad concpts used by differet coutries in -o1letig the data. The data r,nntees
usful t,i-do-ibe order of magntude, indioaIte treds, and oharsteine owhin mao differe-e betwee ocustr-e.
m djuse groP -versge foe each nitotoao arcpcpoation-wigsteu geometric ne-, esoludiog tie e-te- -sue of the Indicator at the moot popeslatdco-cty Iceno gr-ou. D_i to 1rk of datn,'- gronasne of aIndcaor for Capital lurplu Oiil Esp-ters sd of indicators of Acces to Water and EcretaDisposl " IH_ning, ocIws Dintrohotioc and Pkcerty for other co-try gr-uo ar poplatie-teighted geomtric nean without enlsa f the ectre- oluew adti Xot ppoIslted coutry. iaethecvrg ofcontriesaogteidosandnnao noalalit ofdisnd in not uniform, caution aunt he eeied
indicator at a etis amog the country nod reference gupa.
LAN5D AREA (thousad nq.hm. Acces to Sloorta Disposl(pecomnt of Pusltion toa -sIne, and rura -Total - Total sufceae comprising land urns and inland enters. bee of peopl(ta, uran ndrrl sevd yeseta diapsasi a~7 Eotun - most recnt estimate of agriculturalare ond temporaily peroeIntages of their repective pcpsltion. En-rta disposal amy -Inlde
orp-r-setly for crops, paut-es, maket nod kitchen garden or to the collection nod diapoal, with orsithoat .tesatasIt OPOsma e--eelie als.- nod wants-eater by waterb-h systems or thet une of pit privie and noilar
laP PER CAPITA (U10$) -. GiP Per c-pst -tlmaten at curret maket prices PoulatIon ner Pti"non upitl dicided by nuber of pratIcing phyn-iIanncaIrulated by can cove ceathod at acrid oBI Atlas (197k-l8 banis); qulfiedlro a -eiclshool at uni-erity le-e.
Iwo 17. n 1174 data.ouatcpePrsNg- Peraca - Population divided by outer of pr-coicg nale
piNildY ,ONSitfTfIOs PER CAPoTA - Moon.' --nuptica of -- meriajI nry o el graduate p-ns,yati-I nuss,ad sc tnohuss
(ca n inte,perleog, naur l ga odhdr- ncea ndgc -duato -, er dinpitd by d p otl ur-.no% ua - posslabtidc (totl.l ura
10710, and 197f unit. iuilic and p--cte genra and specs-liced h-stpita1 and -hbatlatation _entr__Hoopotal are establishments Perantiy staffed by at least on phpsici-c
POPti,ATION AND dITAL STATIiTICS otai.ih-nets Provding prlaiyaiply cus todial car areno included. PraTotal Popslatio-. Stid-Yr (mIllions - is of July 1; 19id, 1970, and hospitals, however, include ea1tb and medical center ohPermnetly otafful
1977 data. by a physiia (bu by a medicl1 as.sintat, can, a1idof, etc.) wic offerUrbn Popultion (Per-et of totn1) - Patio of orhan to total popaltios; i-patlet -o ndatiot and proide a limited rage o f mdia ailitiec
dffere..s defdiotio of urban arI w.ad y affect c.cspara.I:ity of data AdmIsions ,lpee ifspital led - Totalnuber ofd admission to o diachngn- Prosogocte 'cc 196,1971, and 1975 data.boptl id,vid by the noisie of hdu
Populot ion P-oj-tioo-Poplaltioni ya Did . Curret population projetion are has-d s HOUdINi1975 total poi.Ntio- by nor no
1-o and thei mortality and fetlo,Ity Acerago ho f houshoId (persons1 pee bounhold - tota,ubnadres-
cate_ Iro.jepti_ paant-r foe nociality eaten copris of three A h-uchold nst of arop of inEdIviual abc sar living usaIrrto anIeoclo -sooing USe1 opeotnooy nt tirth increasig mithi-outryc their enin meal. A hoarder or lodger mayo bath -icdod in theoc_o_pitnn _o i_e nodn f-mlc lif v-pe-tany stailli-ng at hooshil foe statistical pip-se.77.0 pec.Thy P-oter for fe-tiliop pate also hav thre lees1oeg-un1 fpesn erro tona ~l,uban andrra -'Ace-ge ouni-
toco :iogdec inei fertility acoding toiincom level and past of pocos pe roo Inalut,ad raocpidcve'.~a dulst.V al loIlepefoc,so- Oaob coutry a then _sigeed o- ofthese rrpeti-1y. -Inllongs -sludenon-p-rasint ottr-oue aIond nl-P- d Pt-otine -oninatio- of motality nod fertility trends fcc projectIon Acesto fEctriity (cercet of dwellins total, urban. Indppl .j
puc~~~~~vors. ven~~~~~~~~tion..l om-llings moth electricity in lIvng qurtera P no -prcetagecIta'tucr pcpIi~ -in I octioctry popltion there is g-tmh otal uId , Inod rura d-ellingsre-peticly.
tdope the hicth into is eqa to the death rt,adas i gotutueceas ccunn his - arhiecd Icn afte fertilIty -atos hiYCATIdN
ecive to tieceld eet lec of unI Ine reproducio cas we dju-td Enrollment Raticseah genreti-n ofmotcPlar tnf __ntly. The tatiocar pop,. Irn sho - totl mal and frl-uo- total, male arc fettle rorcil-Istico iup -n eatiuted I. ths -aic of thy prjeted h-cateri tio sent of all ages at the yinac leelaoprcnoge f c-proti-n prisay
of thc poplatio- In thy Y-nc 2000, and thr otc of ei-n Of fertilbit cool-_ pplain; -Isolly iolo de children agd Ijifne ucane to cepincoceot ci.7 adjusted for differnt lengths of priar odu-aioc; Ic- ---- rionti
YerI ttocr pouat .is-eibhd - Tc pou sh.c stnts..a.y population uniecale Iaio- -noletny emcee~d lid p--ec sicc sta pstIbo01cr has be n -cnhec. tI_ llow cc Moor the officil -ohooIage.
P-suIItic- les,ty S-conuty -oi-;. - total, male nl femle - foaputed caI., i,ic.;,cfc o. ds - Mid-year poploissin Pr oquac iclnt-c (190 heotae) of ed-ontioc reqire an leat four year of approve pc;o
t<tal uraprovides genreal coaioa,rte-hbe triing arisc.cPop iccrs.cmnciul-t-rol land - o-puted no ab- for agricultura lund us ly uf 12 to 17 pear ofag; rep-adenc- oso... ae. tocolly
PopultionAge deui urc ~erort('- fhiIert (0-lu y-aco), -oriog-age uc-ti-nal en-lmel pecet of-t oeodary( - Vocatoc...l i-,,tiOtiinc -o i..i(is-I peao I nd rtired lb Iync Ian I.e. noI percetages of aid-yea technical, induotial, or othee, pcogrm skid operte indpe-dootly I, so
rpltioc_ l9%Iu 17P and 1977 data. dPartaetn oft. sonPda,y ins 'tittinspiclnonIort ae pcet) -6total - Aoua1 crosth -nte Of total mid- Puns l-ta _s rai -. _riaao tnod secodary - Tonl1 atadent s-cecli,d
peso poplation for 1950-hI, lpo-70,-ar 19T0-77. primay and secodary 1evel dicided by anirr- of teah- e -Ic d cccPoPulaticno Irceth Rate (P--oeti - ~..rr- soc ia groeth cato of ocha oponding level.
pPoInItive fo I950-ku, 1960-70, ad 190-795. idolt iit-ay rate (P--et~ - Litects adults Iable so read and -cit,)tPrude birth Pate (per thousan) A- o.al 11cc Itim -e thousand of mid- I perorngo of total adult popolatio- aged 15 yec and. ore
yea populutioc; *0' 19,7d, and 7 lOiuta.Irudo Math Into (pee thuo-di A- ca do-nic Per ths.-o oI -ia-year fPfiiOfkPtOiI
populatoac; 1960, 1970, and 1977 unta. Paege fr (pec thouad poplationI Pnsaecoas -tpeie IccocPepeouotiO onte- Aoegc tber of diughtnrs I o...o mlii c- stating les than cight pe--os; eacld- abul-res h---o clmAtr
ic , -- I ...a elcd-t,v- pociod If coo -ope-i--r p-t are- -h-1oe.pc fi-fet;ln ote;u yal fi-ep vcgsrdios it 1I60, Padulo Poeoe per thbc-d population) - ill types of rei--cc f-n -1.i
I970, and i975. he_d_nut to gene.nIl phic Per thouaad of popint..s caIot ulnesul ioug-Aoc-pt-r. itoni tiooant)- Aoeatl combe of -eci-ectInou...teiroadi ee he eita o f eu'r si
o-cpton of biri-vuttci devce odec_u_pmceof antion- fndly' offect; data for recent year -y cot be c-pa-ale in- eat -tipann pogom abolished hy-mning
PuiyPlanig -Iscr- (percent of -- oiducn P-PPeetIgo cf maried TVOb deciver (ore thouan 1ptpultio_ ( - T roice for ircua-t tIger--omnochl-lenig ag 1-44 yeao who our tielth-cotrl d-oicr phspetbuadPoplto;. nue nirndT reoc
Il nl steno0scr- n i. no ng grou. an d in year wire regi ot_tico f TV sets mnieffevi.
FOGh AND NUTRITIONTPS of'dailgera interest oup e,defined a p-iodi-I publicationdo-r ofPo -Tcutio t Caia(997-i)-liro. ci Per cPtyt ae-td prienily to --ood-g gear.a.nems. It is coniderdt- c diyan-1a p-d-oti lo of alfoocsdiisPodtioeldssednd if it npenes at leat fou tomsues
feed a 0 Icon naondacyear ias. C-soditi- cvrPriaary goods Cicema Annual Atte-d-n pe nit. s PearY - hated in tbhneo o int(v.5. ougacosneccsc.rnd of Ougne) uhich ace eolhieacdvonttiocueitett cld during thr yea, 10udlag ndmb-oclna to drive-incioaadnl;e
c.g cofftc nod ts- -1ccolded). Aggregate produt-u if .. ,h con-y _jioodo b-d itn --oslnegr produce price eughts
Ir aiaspplyofcoir (percnt of requiremets) C-Copuod from LAWRf FiPCEce_Rgy equiart fP te fco.d suoplico nniahll is coutry Per caPita Total Labur force (tuad,) -.oE-n-ionLyj soti- person, iiui -gtvPee day. A-ilbhle iupLi- -cconeine domestic p-od-o,-, imports e- force andueplyd hut eclding hos--uh-, studeet, et-. yefimt-_c_potta. ar changes -o otoob. Nct isppli- -colud siml feed seds, imc ct onresaect o-p-baIe.
ujnttms ac c fodpeoncig,an <ue, t ioriotcs Rqure Iwaelb-ort(-femleIn Idfocesppet-taga of tit1 labor force.eto cctisthed by Phi Is..od 00pyitgoiceofr-oaa glaupjret( -Lbue cIrc amig forestry, bunting and
sctmomty and health c-ncuoc't .0ccih vantal tcasp-rta-,, bAy -nghts, fiobig as pe--ntnr of tota1l th- firceaI Pod _00 Ii_cbti_t pouai -ad al1o-iog 10 p-coet for sudustr (prcnt) -LhIP- force io minin,d. ot-tro-io ascfapou..ag mod-ntuII h--hoonbc.d lco1. elct ict, onteead Iga perceatge of total labor fore
coanit ouppl .f prtest deans cr dsp - ivt-u clo spc atcpn -ate(prceo) -tota mI,nd femle - 'rticipation ccapita nct supyiy offoI r b e upyofnfodIsocieaati-ity rates se -puted an total, wale, nod fn-ir uIc. force as Peeabov.- hequi-cts foeal ute o easiaei h LOydA p-oior foe a Iein f ttl maead Peale popuitlnt of all age sapenticely
mhnosau allamnve ihi grat of ttal prtei OPee day and 20 gear cf 1b 197, and I95unt~. These ar ILl's pcticip.ti.c raesrfleciseavwlnd pulsepr-i-c, of shch ii ge-s ohold he animal p-tteit. M--sot-utor of the population, nod long t-a ieeed. A few _sti_e
Thc- utandado ar lose then those of 75 groa 0 f total protin end tee fro nucnti s..uII cs -25 genoah oP nima protein asaI- ge Poe the -1ed, propened by Pit Ononemla needenly Iat iv - atis of population under 15 and hi and ove to
W-te Iedaed rood Ourey. th Ia__foc in ag geop of 19-64 yearsPeronis pntcn uELY Peo -cima and p51st - leti.i supply of fo-d
inc-vd Peo -somlaan pue_tgra day. INCOSE DISTIPP I3CTiChild (noe 1-) mortlity eloetouad - Moal sa-tun pee tnosan Percentage of Private Income1 lot~h! itcah and kind) - iseceloedby ciohtes -
ioaegop 1- pec,to child;ee is this age grop; for moat d-v- 5 Per-st, richs- bpcet ues 0pert, and pooes 0i perosnt.plo, -oht.i.. dstn decicr feo I i-ife tIbl-c of ho-heblds.
HALATH PoobfTY TARGET iRGPSirlif lorotnoyat rB-L (petrol - iAroctce fpsoEflieitiwated Absolute Povety Income leve (US4 -e yta) - urbannd rurl_,,alti a2t bsrth; I960, 1970, and 19~77. daIta, Abouepvryiifeivlh bs noelvlhe hc u
lofant Mortlity kate m thna -so l -th oP infants under on-ntritionally adequate diet plus setial ton-food -equi-eesto i sotyer'fage per thousad lice bictho. aff-rdblt.
booms_to ife Wa,tter percent I-f ec tico - total, uban and ural - Eltimted RIftaice Povert Intonel=evel(P4 per capita) - urban nod rurlseofpeopl (totl urban, Iad iur ll mteaable ac-esoto Rrl eltive pe-rt acm ee I lnetie oP averag Per capita
onf stee supply (icldes treted suf. acat-e or untreted but peeronal incoe of the coutry. leban leve Is de-iod f..a the rural 1-cedooctsi,ictedsaicu_- a -that .Peo .peotmr b-reiles, spniugs, ihajntmtfrhigr- -it of living in urban area.no aitary melIs pereetage of thi..r. repe-ti- popultion It Eatimatd PopuaItisal Bs1- Absslte PoestyIom eeA 1 rez3h\,d
an urban area a pbhli foutain Or tnodps~t locatedntwr ht rural- Pert of Population rbrI and rura)si.rd asliepn200mters fecesuos h s.. y be coniderd so being ai tbin -sa-bnleIo-aso that h-ne Ina I .rural ...a resnble aroma would implytbat the hueIfe or -eber of the ho-shbld do not hav to spend a inoacic and Iscial hata Di-oadisproportionteptrt o~f tie day in fetch Ing the fanily's water seeds fE-oic Analysis and Projections Depa ntme
August 1979
-25- ANNEX I
Paee 4 of .5tC0OM1C OCZWWITUNT DATA SHUT
1965 1900 1976 1977 1978 /a 1979 98,01 1993 196S- 77 1877791, '197 ,8 I9Is -90 of co5 a,
lmi Jo I- [I t 71 975 prir-tl
I. 00.0 do.o.iic Orodoot 6,863.8 10.313,9 3.~Is7122,6 76,885.3 18,138. 99. 20:11.699 29,2561.7 7.7 1.9 7.1 7.0 10.82. laIn. Ito. tel,. Of 20.4. -66.3 I 2. -50. 97. 10. .235.4 -. 0 -1.92.8 3.
... d-wa599al, Int.- 6,79.5 10,385.1 5,204. 5,0. 1000 1.158 9l,279.9 27,293.9 7.2 70.07.0 99.4. :ot.1,659.9 2,999.8 0.699. 6,6:760 .8 4,896.ft 5002.5 I... ,0. .6 6. 6.I.8 2.
~~. ~Apoot9.. ~~~lo.. .7,593.0 ~~ -2.04. -0:,90. -4,50. 5,5. -5:,077.4 '! ,12. -_..040. 5. 6.1 8.0 8.7 20.2N. iopoota-,dloat.6 tot TOT .1 ~~~.54. -217. -33007 -1,528. -4,009 -. 9.0 -4.039. 1 -6.081.5 7.7 4.3 8.0.8 20
7. --- no o.p dj-ta7.d9lot TT 110.0 671.9 398.6 932.7 87.9 -. 238 -403-1,489.30 2.3
A. Total cnn.aaopt lot, 5~~~,002.2 9.007,0 11,709.15 12, 3790.3 13.062,6 I I01. 5,9. 1,2. 7. 3 .2 6561 76.5I. In,eCi..ei 1.608,0 3,000.6 3,893.9 4,269,2 4,015.3 5,787.2 5,500.8 8,062.5,0.5 10.2 7.6 7.5006.8
7. Nation. 7 ..,ioR. ~ ~~~~.576. 250. 3,677.7 37.5 39.! 3, 901.5 4,011.1 6.125.8 6.S.5 ,8 9.6 22.1
fni TOT :19,972 2,358.7 :11: I 6S 313.2 3::.967, 0,963,4 4:,M19. 6,52, 6. 87 09.9 22.212. illS 95 roroent 040 6,0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~52.9 6,5633 6,286.3 1.156, 281.8 25,181 29,590.9 9,76.6 133 7. 155 1.
S. Seto Oo.uo
56o f P5)
I. A~~~~ ri~~oltor. 0.~~~~392 0.366 0.301 0.281 0.~211 0,206 0.253 0.2292. Inda,.try ~~~~~~ ~~~~0.20 0.22 0.260 0.428 0.29 0.304 0.300 0.3335
3. Sotoi-r0 4 601, 0.2 0.630 .3 .3 0.432 0.432 0.637
C.ti. 1975 - 100)
u. -:9P00 polo .709 6.63 68.56 91.65 89.33 96.I5 11.1.6I5 125.0 171. 5.6 12.7 7.2 3.1
T.'---oo p"-ld.29.. 67.76 6715 13.5 161 1111 1 12.05, 16.6 19 0.72 I. .7 6. .0.Ttaoftrod 4.9722 a0. 86.6 7.0 7.0 756i 16 06 1. . .
4. .10 d.Ha.to (002 59.22 62.39 103.64 108.82 116.27 120.00 143.00 206.32 5.2 6.8 7.3 6.05. do-oO -n.a8090A00 . 20.8n 23.8 2.60 706 20.39
D. S.1.-td I92.dl-- 1963-77 1977-79 1979-85 1983-90.
11 IC 3.96 3.3 3.8 3.9
2 1.pneo a19.tioln7 ~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~1.09 0.07 0.5 .83. 6oct93. n.tIotial unloS. oat. ~~~ ~~0.2 0.21 0.1 02
4. 1.p-Hta/09 0.27 0,2 0.26 0.26
6. 1-92.s/COP 2.27 0.26 0.27 0 .27.O.or.gp/COP 0.04 0.0,6 0.05 0'.03
Va1s 69d A La~~~~~~~~bor tfrt 1o 0.,a .9. b j
F. Lboo. .96 Oo-A. d4 ftg04.l90 t190 21975 IUin ..j 500 S sO9v0
a.Atli-oto.1 6,339 31.3 13,6 70.7 30 6.2 .,Idoatr 6,62 38.6 i. . 3'170" 356.7
1. Scooloca ~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~5,58 33.3 2. 6. ,910 225.4
ToOalI.n 26 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1,99 10- 07.7 700.0 330 100.0
F. 00bI20 71.i 0.7000 00 XCat-l I",r..2 1975 2976 2975 2976 1977 197..±L
C..Cutt.. 9A2352.8 .. 5 1 3. 6 13.6 790 6.2. Ta. ten.... 22.~~~~~~~~~~~~103 22. 23. 22.0 12.7 29 2.
3. Cr.-.ot95.4 p ort... 20. 22.6 20.7 12. 13.0 12,. 23.24. BdA45...ry 990109. 2.9 1.2 3.7 1.5 0.6 1,2 1.65. Tot- 5.002,.t.6.5 7.7 3.8 6.9 5,3 5.4 5.3
C. P612.r. ICOet009110165.0 112. 628. 702.7 833.7 9 22.0 1,216.072 ni tot.
7l~~~~~ort9 1900. IWIi 9.2 8.0 18.6~~~~~I 20.0 21.1 I9.7 9.1
/b At -ooa-i .90.2 polo..
88970 t
- 26 - Pe. 5 °"
BALANCE OF PAYMFNTS, 7FItFAI.L ASILSTAN706 . nr8T AND CREDITWOR4THINESS(Co-t t US$ 0 Illon.)
Actu l Profeited1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978/s 1979 1980 1985 t990
Son-ary of W.fence of F-mentsUpo.ts Ofocloding NFS) 2,084.7 3,025.4 2,796.5 3,490.6 4,029.3 4.930.7 6,300.0 7,660.0 12,835.0 24,967.7I.port. (inclodl.g NFS) 2,258.3 3,353.2 3,687.3 3,911.9 5,093.8 5,919.2 8,140.0 9,460.0 13,904.5 24,650.4I.e.o.roc blan-n -173.6 -327.8 .609.8 -421.3 -1,064.4 -969.2 -1,840.0 1,800.0 -1,069.5 317.3
Net fsrtoer -rvIre Inco-. -20.8 -0.7 5.4 -41.6 -72.5 -154.5 -210.0 -300.0 -925.0 -1.412.5Net Interent povo-nts 7.0 36.0 69.0 26.1 -4.0 -69.4 -100.0 -210.0 -766.9 -1,170.7
Of bOl,h on public 1 4 LT l-o.n -25.1 -28.1 -34.5 -44.3 -64.5 -101.8 -133.1 -174.5 -487.1 -882.0Direct -vent..ent -ncote -28.0 -37.0 -64.0 -66.1 -68.5 -72.8 -75.5 -80.0 -192.5 -290.01orkebrtr -fttoo-e (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.9 24.5 34.4 48.2
Cortest traaafers (net) 145.5 241.0 80.1 22.8 39.3 40.4 60.0 80.0 100.0 110.0
3.1-00 on -orrent mc oot -48.9 -87.5 -605.3 -440.0 -1.097.6 -1,103.4 -1,990.0 -2,020.0 -1,894.5 -985.1
Private dIrect tivrotf.ent 67.0 135.6 85.5 79.1 106.1 50.0 60.0 75.0 276.3 487.0Crtn.s & gtaat-like f:ons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pobilo H 6 LT o....Disb.r.e.entt 69.0 95.9 149.2 241.7 362.6 739.5 900.0 1,010.8 1,960.4 2,697.6A-etI.attot -28.9 -32.3 -38.7 -43.4 -07.8 -90.7 -164.1 -222.1 -620.1 -1,092.7Net dl.b.tee.e-ts 39.2 63.5 110.3 198.3 274.8 640.8 735.9 788.7 1,340.3 1,604.9
Other M 4 LT lo.n.DOlb.ere-ents 178.9 326.2 399.6 279.7 311.8 501.3 900.0 1,150.0 1,393.0 462.2A.ortlati.on -223.1 -197.2 -235.1 -245.9 -264.2 -467.2 -520.0 -600.0 -050.6 -1,167.8Not d.bhr -e-ts -44.2 129.3 64.5 33.8 47.6 34.1 380.0 550.0 542.4 -705.6
OUe of IMF re.o rces 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.1 1.8 181.4 200.0 200.0 -30.0 0.0Short-tr. copit.l ttan-nctio.s 42.0 55.5 127.5 136.2 256.2 84.0 120.0 250.0 180.1 252.6
Capita1 tr-- ..ctfons 8EI 57.9 96.3 77.2 -11.4 136.2 -371.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Change J. r-ner.es (- lotOCone) -113.0 -392.7 140.1 -73.0 275.0 476.9 494.1 176.3 -414.0 -654.5
Net foreign e-ch..&. reserven L( -d of period) 1,306.0 1,599.0 1,406.0 1,444.0 1,135.8 659.9 166.0 10.0 2,634.5 5,320.9
Grant and Lon. Co.ItnentsOfftietl Sr-ots 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tnt.l pcblie M 4 LT Io- 87.1 436.5 223.4 372.3 633.0 1,220.0
188D 15.0 142.0 95.0 158.0 137.8 256.0IDA 25.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.1Other .. ltllater-l 6.4 77.2 62.7 92.1 47.0 194.7Goveenrmeoto 24.0 200.5 47.7 22.2 106.4 312.0
Of bhioh cmtrrlly plb,.d econosee c 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Suppllera 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0finootial institotlons 16.7 9.7 18.0 100.0 341.9 423.7
Other X 4 LT l..ts ( .et Orv-labl.) 178.9 415.9 392.5 360.2 348.9 531.8
l..orandam ItemsCrtnt tgl-ent of tot-l coniten-ts (2) 44.600 31.400 16.700 11.500 10.200 14.869Aver.ge Intorent (2) 0.044 0,057 0.076 0.081 0.080 0.072Avertge et.rity (years) 29.100 23.800 23.500 18.500 14.000 12.832
Osedbos,- sod LonP-lerr Debt (DOslbrsed only)T0t.1 debt o.t.t.ndltg (DOD nd of priod) 903.9 1,160.7 1,345.6 1,606.8 1,931.9 2,691.0In.lodlng odl.sb.r..d 1,182.4 1,770.0 2,009.5 2,404.0 3,145.9 4,594.3Pablie debt rcrvlce -54.9 -60.4 -73.2 -87.7 -152.3 -202.9Intoe-at -25.1 -28.1 -34.5 -44.3 -64.5 -100.7Other M 4 LT debt seevlce -255.8 -266.8 -314.5 -245.9 -338.3 -590.8Into1 debt -reri- -310.7 -327.2 -387.7 -333.6 -490.6 -796.7
Debt Borden (2)Debt servIce rtor 14.9 10.8 13.9 9.6 12.2 16.1Debt eervlte rotio /d 16.2 1:.0 16.2 11.5 13.9 17.6Debt servcft/vP 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.0 2.7 3.6Public debt -re..ce.ovsrnrent rnne 4.3 2.5 3.5 3.7 4.4 6.3
7etr (I)I.terest or total DOD/tot.l dlsborn-oent. 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.6lorsi debt acrv1c/Coveenrrrvrtoe 12.0 11.8 11.9 10.7 12.0 19.6
Denendenry -. ,tjlq for M & LT Dcbt (2)Gen. dl.b- -r-cnt-/lrport (in-10d1 NFS) 11.0 12.6 12.9 13.3 10.9 21.0Not tr.nsfnt/1sportt (lnctlodIog NFS) -2.8 2.8 1.8 4.8 2.0 10.2* t ttannfer/gro- dlborne-rt- -25.3 22.5 13.6 36.0 18.4 48.7
RtI o-- (21168D dibnrn-ent/gr... tntol dl.h-.se.ent. 14.8 8.0 9.1 8.3 12.0 9.3B.nk Cro-p dinb--rneotn/Or.s. tntol di.be.--ent. 14.8 8.3 9. 7 9.5 13.6 9.911RD boo/toto1 tOD 24.2 20.8 20.0 18.6 17.9 20.28e,k Ce..p DOD/tntl DOD 24.2 20.9 20.4 19.2 18.9 21.31D8D dbt servlte/tnt.l debt rero-re 8.0 8.5 8.3 10.9 9.8 7.8g.ek Cr-t-P debt ."-lte/ 1tol svltO 8.0 8.5 8.3 10.9 9.8 7.8
titorsssl Debt (Olsb--nod only) fttat.ndfsc 12/31/78tCurrent S8$ s1llio1n) Afo.mot 2
IBRD 634.8 24.5Bank Cronp 459.3 25.8Other -nltllote-ol 257.5 14.5Gnvern-enot 549.2 30.9
Of nhlrh .n.tr-lly planned ec-ns,fren /r 0.0 0.0Sopplie.t 9.0 0.5Fln-nriol Iontittl.on. 502.1 28.28Bnds 0.0 0.0Ttt.l pblflc n & LT debt 1,777.1 100.0Other 0 4 LT debt 913.9 51.4Tota1 publIc debt (-codlung ordlsb .r.ed) 3,680.4 207.1Tot1 H S LT debt (inc1-dln. -ndlob-rsed) 4,594.3 258.5
9 Ptell.laary.
Lb N't forelgn ... ts. V55 eqUvSlert of Line 31. October, 1979
r l-l1de. f3FA pouottles. Peoplen ORpablic of Chln, North K-e., North Viet
/d Intluding not direct i-evnsent Inco- e.
-- 27 -AHtEX IIPage 1 of 12
THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN THAILAND la
A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CPREDITS(As of March 31, 1980)
Loan or Amount ($ million)Credit Less CancellationsNumber Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed
Twenty-four loans and one credit fully disbursed 388.87 5.50 -822 1972 Kingdom of Thailand Education 15.40 - 2.61864 1972 Telephone Organization of Thailand Telecom 37.00 - 0.72870 1972 Kingdom of Thailand Highways 27.81 - -369 1973 Kingdom of Thailand Education - 19.50 2.21461 1974 Kingdom of Thailand Irrigation - 7.00 0.95977 1974 Electricity Generating Authority
of Thailand Power 75.00 - 5.99992 1974 Industrial Finance Corporation
Thailand Industry 11.70 - 0.201021 1974 Metropolitan Water Works Authority Water 55.00 - 0.031149 1975 Kingdon of Thailand Irrigation 95.00 - 66.871198 1976 Kingdom of Thailand Rural Dev. 21.00(TW) - 8.781199 1976 Kingdom of Thailand Livestock 5.00(TW) - 2.961243 1976 Kingdom of Thailand Rubber 50.00 - 27.891253 1976 Telephone Organization of Thailand Telecom 26.00 - 4.291271 1976 Kingdom of Thailand Education 31.00 - 19.741327 1976 Industrial Finance Corporation of
Thailand Industry 25.00 - 6.591393 1977 Kingdom of Thailand Ag. Exten. 28.00 - 19.731468 1977 Kingdom of Thailand Irrigation 55.00 - 36.771485 1977 Electricity Generating Authority
of Thailand Power 50.00 - 24.701492 1977 Industrial Estates Authority of
Thailand Industry 4.75 - 2.91767 1978 Kingdom of Thailand Population - 33.10/b 32.991519 1978 Kingdom of Thailand Highways 110.00 - 61.281527 1978 Provincial Electricity Authority Rural Elect. 25.00 - 21.691556 1978 Kingdom of Thailand Housing 8.60 - 7.64S-10 1978 Natural Gas Organization of
Thailand Natural Gas 4.90 - 0.211620 1978 Telephone Organization of Thailand Telecom 90-00 - 90.001630 1978 Kingdom of Thailand Irrigation 17.50 - 17.151638 1979 Kingdom of Thailand Urban 16.00 - 13.751662 1979 State Railway of Thailand Railways 16.70 - 16.701690 1979 Electricity Generating Authority
of Thailand Power 80.00 - 80.00
- 28 -A.1TNEX II
Page 2 of 12
Loan or Amount ($ million)Credit Less CancellationsNumber Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed
913 1979 Kingdom of Thailand Education - 35.00 35.0929 1979 Kingdom of Thailand Agriculture - 25.00 25.01752 1979 Kingdom of Thailand Ag. Extension 40.00 - 39.871773 1980 Petroleum Authority of Natural Gas
Thailand Pipeline 107.00/d 107.01787 1980 Kingdom of Thailand Irrigation 80.00 80.0
Total 1,597.23 125.10 862.22of which has been repaid 216.19 0.11
Total now outstanding 1,381.04 124.98
Amount sold /c 68.63of which has been repaid 43.21 25.42
Total now held by Bank and IDA 1,355.62 124.98
Total undisbursed 766.07 96.15
/a This summary includes Bank Group loans/credits signed as of March 31, 1980.
/b Of which $3.1 million is Norway grant participation.
/c Of which $43.3 million sold to the Bank of Thailand.
/d Includes refinancing of Loan S-10-TH ($4.9 million).
- 29 -
ANNEX IIPage 3 of 12
B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS(As of March 31, 1980)
Amounts ($ million)Year Company Type of Business Loan Equity Total
1959 Concrete Products and Cement and ConstructionAggregate Co., Ltd. Materials 0.30 - 0.30
1964/ Industrial Development - 0.38 0.381970 Finance Corporation Finance Company
of Thailand (IFCT)
1969/ Siam Cement Group Cement and1975/ Construction1978/1979 Materials 28.33 4.24 32.57
1977 Mutual Fund Company Money and CapitalLimited Market - 0.29 0.29
1977 United Sugar Terminal Food and FoodLimited Processing 2.50 0.20 2.70
1978 Siam Commercial Bank Small and MediumScale Industries 2.00 - 2.00
1979 Bangkok Glass IndustryCompany, Limited Class Containers 4.35 0.25 5.10
1979 Siam City Cement Cement and Construc-Company, Limited tion Materials 36.00 4.00 40.00
1979 Thai Orient LeasingCo. Ltd. Capital liarket - 0.15 0.15
Total gross commitments 73.98 9.51 83.49
Less cancellations, terminations,repayments and sales 48.86 2.56 51.42
Net held by the Corporation 25.12 6.95 32.07
Total undisbursed 34.00 - 34.00
- 30 -
ANNEX IIPage 4 of 12
C. STATUS OF PROJECTS IN EXECUTION /1(As of March 31, 1980)
Loan No. 822 Second Education Project (Kasetsart University); $15.4Mfillion Loan of May 24, 1972; Effective Date: August 22,1972; Original Closing Date: June 30, 1978; CurrentClosing Date: July 31, 1980
Although the technical assistance and educational aspects ofthe project are largely on schedule, civil works are about three yearsbehind schedule with consequent delays in furniture and equipment procure-ment. The delays in civil works are due to delays in contracting archi-tectural consultants, completing tender documents, and awarding contracts.These delays also reflected ineffective management which has begun to improveafter the recent fcrmation of a commission of senior officials to coordinateproject implementation. Consequently, civil works are expected to becompleted by June 1980 and equipment procurement, by September 1980. Thespecialist services program under the project is nearly completed.Recommendations of experts for improvement of teaching, research andextension activities are considered worthwhile and have been implemented bythe university staff. All the fellowships have been awarded; nearly allrecipients have completed their training. Total project cost will exceedappraisal estimates by about 35%.
Credit No. 369 Third Education Project; $19.5 Million Credit of April 11,1973; Effective Date: August 8, 1973; Original ClosingDate: June 30. 1978; Current Closing Date: September 30,1980
All project components are virtually completed except the TeacherTraining Colleges (TTC) component which is about three years behind schedule.Good progress is generally being made in the pedagogical development ofproject components except at Songkla University where the attraction ofteaching at Bangkok universities is causing high staff turnover.
/1 These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding theprogress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any prob-lems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedythem. They should be read in this sense, and with the understandingthat they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengthsand weaknesses in project implementation.
- 31 -ANNEX IIPage 5 of 12
Loan No. 1271 Fourth Education Project: $31 Million Loan of September 13,1976; Effective Date: February 9, 1977: Closing Date:June 30, 1982
Progress in project implementation follows approximately theappraisal estimate. There have been no significant delays in civil worksor procurement of furniture and equipment. Nearly all fellowships have beenawarded. Staff training programs are on schedule but need to be improved, asdoes supervision by the Ministry of Education of its nonformal educationprograms.
Credit No. 913 Fifth Education Project; $35 Million Credit of June 28, 1979;Effective Date: October 12, 1979; Closing Date: June 30,1985
Good progress is being made in project implementation: (i) theCentral Procurement Unit has been established; (ii) sites for all first phaseinstitutions have been acquired, and expected to be completed by mid-1981;(iii) Phase I sketch plans and lists of furniture and equipment have beenprepared; and (iv) technical assistance contractors have been identified andpartly contracted.
Loan No. 864 First Telecommunications Project; $37 Million Loan of December5, 1972: Effective Date: March 1, 1973: Original Closing Date:December 31, 1977: Current Closing Date: June 30, 1980
The project is lagging a few months behind the revised time scheduleestablished in 1975 due to delays in procurement. The Bank loan is fullycommitted and as of March 31, 1980, $0.7 million remains to be disbursed.Nearly all of the local telephone network expansion has been completed. Aftera year's delay in procurement under a bilateral loan, the installation of thelong distance transmission equipment is now progressing satisfactorily.
Loan No. 1253 Second Telecommunications Project; $26 Million Loan of June 11,1976: Effective Date: August 25, 1976; Closing Date:December 31, 1980
The project is progressing satisfactorily. Procurement action onall Bank-financed items is complete. The Bank loan is fully committed and$21.7 (83%) had been disbursed as of bMarch 31, 1980. Local telephonenetwork expansion is a few months behind schedule. After a year's delay inprocurement under a bilateral loan, the installation of long distancetransmission equipment is progressing satisfactorily.
- 32 -ANNEX IIPage 6 of 12
Loan No. 1620 Third Telecommunications Project; $90 Million Loan ofOctober 4, 1978; Effective Date: January 3, 1979;Closing Date: September 30, 1983
Due to review of management decision on standardization of switch-ing equipment and cables, action on procurement has been delayed by about 9-12months. Waiting lists have been introduced in all telephone areas andprocedures for giving new connections revised. Progress on implementation ofother project components is satisfactory.
Loan No. 1519 Sixth Highway (Provincial Roads) Project: $110 MillionLoan of March 23, 1978; Effective Date: June 22, 1978;Closing Date: December 31, 1982
Progress is generally satisfactory. Procurement of maintenanceequipment is under way, and most contracts have been awarded. Constructionof project roads is well under way, with most contracts on schedule.
Loan No. 1662 Fifth Railway Project; $16.7 Million Loan of April 23, 1979;Effective Date: August 22, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1982
Progress on project implementaton is satisfactory.
Credit No. 461 Northeast Irrigation Improvement Project: $7 Million Creditof February 19, 1974; Effective Date: October 7, 1974;Original Closing Date: June 30, 1979; Current Closing Date:June 30, 1980
The project will be completed two years behind schedule as a resultof initial delays in appointing consultants and in procuring earthmovingequipment. Work on rehabilitation of main canal systems has been completedand the pace of construction of tertiary canals has improved. The currentestimate of project cost is $30.3 million, compared with $12.5 million atappraisal. This increase is due to inflation being higher than foreseen atappraisal, the decision to provide new tertiary canals over an area of 34,700ha rather than the 21,500 ha assumed at appraisal, and the adoption of higherstandards for tertiary development than euisioned at appraisal. The highercosts are compensated by increases in projected commodity prices and theeconomic rate of return is now estimated at 24% compared to 22% at appraisal.Progress on the rainfed rice component has been affected by managementdifficulty in integrating the work of several disciplinary groups.
- 33 ~ ANNEX IIPage 7 of 12
Loan No. 1630 Second Northeast Thailand Irrigation Improvement Project:$17.5 Million of December 4, 1978; Effective Date: Mlay 9,1979: Closing Date: September 30, 1985
Consultant contract was signed in March 1979. Design by contractis delayed but "force account" work began in early 1980. Procurement ofvehicles and equipment is delayed due to difficulties in reconciling thedrainage used in existing bidding documents with recently introducedgovernment regulations on procurement.
Loan No. 1149 Phitsanulok Irrigation Project: $95 Million Loan of July 25,1975: Effective Date: October 31, 1975; Closing Date:June 30, 1983
Major civil works are behind schedule, but project completion isstill expected by mid-1984. Construction work on the diversion dam isprogressing well and RID expects to award a third canal contract intime to commence construction during the next dry season. About 4,500 ha ofon-farm development was completed in 1979. Thus, total area provided withon-farm development is now 9,000 ha or 10% of the project area. All studiesfinanced under the project are proceeding satisfactorily.
Loan No. 1468 Second Chao Phya Irrigation Improvement Project: $55 MillionLoan of September 23, 1977: Effective Date: December 23, 1977;Closing Date: June 30, 1983
Equipment procurement is progressing satisfactorily. Rehabilitationand on-farm development works on about 15,500 ha were completed in the 1979construction season bringing the total area developed to 22,000 ha, whichis in accordance with the appraisal estimate. A project monitoring system isbeing set up and the Project area is now served by the National AgriculturalExtension Project.
Loan No. 1787 Eleventh Irrigation Project; $80 Million Loan ofFebruary 17, 1980; Effective Date: April 2, 1980;Closing Date: June 30, 1986
This loan becomes effective on April 2, 1980.
Loan No. 1198T Northeast Thailand Rural Development Project; $21 MillionLoan of February 27, 1976; Effective Date: June 29, 1976;Closing Date: June 30, 1981
After a delay of one year in appointing consultants, satisfactoryprogress is being made on the engineering of village roads. The first con-tract for construction of 114 km has been completed and work has begun ontwo contracts for a total of some 250 km. Procurement problems havedelayed the water supply components, but most of the drilling equipment hasnow been delivered, drilling crews have been recruited and are being trained.The rural electrification component has been completed, and progress onagricultural extension and land settlements is satisfactory. After a slowstart-up, the Upland Crop Improvement Component is progressing satisfactorily.
- 34 -ANNEX IIPage 8 of 12
The program management, with the assistance of a recently appointed programadvisor, has undertaken a critical review of past work and is gradually intro-ducing an innovative program of research to help solve the problems of upland-
crop farmers in the Northeast.
Credit No. 929 Northern Agricultural Development Project: $25 MillionCredit of June 28, 1979; Effective Date: October 12, 1979;
Closing Date: December 31, 1985
Preparation for the first year of project implementation have been
satisfactory, particularly in view of the fact that the implementing agencies
have no prior experience with Bank-supported projects.
Loan No. 1199T Livestock Development Project; $5.0 Million Loan of February27, 1976; Effective Date: May 25, 1976; Closing Date: June
30, 1981
Project implementation is proceeding satisfactorily but disburse-ments remain about eighteen months behind appraisal estimates. The appraisal
target of 50,000 ha seems to have been reached in FY1979. The seed productionand pasture development programs are progressing well and the loaned-bull andartificial insemination program, hitherto hindered by the delay in importation
of cattle, are improving.
Loan No. 1243 Rubber Replanting Project; $50 Million Loan of September 13,
1976; Effective Date: January 14, 1977; Closing date: June30, 1981
The project is one year behind schedule due to procurement diffi-culties and initial delay in loan signing as well as in agreeing on the
formula of fertilizers to be procured through ICB. Implementation isimproving, however. Staff constraints have delayed completion of the
socio-economic survey of rubber smallholders.
Loan No. 1393 National Agricultural Extension Project; $28 Million Loan
of May 17, 1977; Effective Date: September 1, 1977;Closing Date: December 31, 1982
Supervisory staff have been appointed in all 33 project provinces,and remaining vacancies are expected to be filled by end-1980. Staffing is
almost complete in 20 of the possible 25 provinces. The quality of training,particularly that for subject matter specialists, can be further improved.Efforts to rectify shortcomings in the quality of leadership and technical
support are being made in the weaker provinces. Excellent extension results
have already been achieved, in particular through the extensive use of smallpumps for dry-season cropping by small farmer groups, in rubber quality
improvement and in improvements in home gardens. The civil works program isabout two years behind schedule because of high
- 35 -
ANNEX IIPage 9 of 12
inflation and, until recently, the low unit-cost ceilings for civil worksset by the Budget Bureau. It is expected that contracts for all remainingcivil works will be awarded before during 1980. Procurement of vehicles,equipment and materials is on schedule.
Loan No. 1752 Second National Agricultural Extension Project; $40 MillionLoan of September 18. 1979; Effective Date: December 18, 1979Closing Date: December 31, 1985
This loan became effective on December 18, 1979, and implementationprogress to date is satisfactory.
Loan No. 977 Srinagarind (Ban Chao Nen) Hydroelectric Project: $75 MillionLoan of April 15, 1974; Effective Date: June 14, 1974;Closing Date: December 31, 1980
Civil works under the project are completed. The installation ofthe turbine generating units is completed and tested as scheduled.Project costs are about 28% higher than appraisal estimates (6% due todesign changes for civil works, 12.5% due to higher cost for equipment thanappraisal estimate, and 9% do to changes in currency parities). The progresson resettlement has been satisfactory, and all of the families affected havenow been resettled.
Loan No. 1485 Pattani Hydroelectric Project; $50 Million Loan ofSeptember 23, 1977; Effective Date: December 20, 1977;Closing Date: December 31, 1982
The construction of the main civil works is proceeding satis-factorily. Implementation is on schedule and project costs are close toappraisal estimates. Orders for all major equipment (financed by the KuwaitFund) have been placed. Construction for the resettlement component isprogressing according to schedule.
Loan No. 1527 The Accelerated Rural Electrification Project: $25 MillionLoan of March 9, 1978; Effective Date: June 7, 1978;Closing Date: June-30, 1983.
By the end of March 1980, work was proceeding in 1,065 villages ofwhich 437 have already been electrified. The project is about 6 monthsbehind schedule due to initial delays in procurement.
- 36 -
ANNEX IIPage 10 of 12
S-10 Natural Gas Development Engineering Project, $4.9 Million Loanof July 28, 1978; Effective Date: September 25, 1978; ClosingDate: June 30, 1980.
All the project preparation activities and preliminary engineeringhave been completed. In July 1979, the Borrower, the National Gas Organiza-tion of Thailand, was taken over by the Petroleum Authority of Thailand whois the Borrower for a loan of $107 million for the Second Gas Pipelineproject.
Loan No. 1690 Bang Pakong Thermal Power Project; $80 Million Loan ofAugust 9, 1979; Effective Date: Mtay 23, 1980; ClosingDate: June 30, 1984
[This loan was made effective on May 23, 1980].
Loan No. 1773 Second Natural Gas Development Project; $107 Million Loan ofFebruary 15, 1980; Effective Date:Closing Date: December 31, 1983
This loan is expected to become effective on July 15, 1980.
Loan No. 1021 Bangkok Water Supply Project; $55 Million Loan of June 28,1974: Effective Date: December 2, 1974; Original ClosingDate: June 30, 1979; Current Closing Date: June 30, 1980
Physical work on the project is proceeding satisfactorily. Thequality of construction and the performance of consultants on supervisionof construction of the IBRD portion of the project is good. Because of theinitial delays in contract awards, the project is expected to be completedby the end of 1980. Due to inadequate tariffs, which were last revised in May1972, MWWA's financial performance continues to be poor. The Governmentapproved MWWA's proposals for raising the water tariffs in line with increasedoperating costs were recently approved by Cabinet; parliamentary oppositionhas put these tariff increases in abeyance.
Loan No. 1556 Bangkok Sites and Services Project; $8.6 Million Loan ofJune 15, 1978; Effective Date: September 22, 1978;Closing Date: December 31, 1981
Progress is generally good with only minor delays in implement-ation. Current cost estimates for civil works are below appraisal esti-mates. In order to minimize resistance to beneficiary charges, costrecovery in improved slums is expected to be introduced as physical worksare completed.
- 37 -
ANNEX IIPage 11 of 12
Loan No. 1638 Bangkok Traffic Management Project; $16 Million Loan ofJanuary 25, 1979; Effective Date: April 25, 1979; ClosingDate: September 30, 1982
Implementation of the project is satisfactory. Signal equipment hasbeen installed, earlier than expected, as a result of the consulting andprocurement work done under contracts for which the Bank provided retroactiv"financing.
Loan No. 1492 The Minburi (Lat Krabang) Industrial Estate Project; $4.75Million Loan of December 5, 1977; Effective Date: March 24,1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1981
On-site infrastructure has been progressing. Bunding, drainage, andthree of the four deep wells have been completed. Substantial progress isbeing achieved in road construction, sewerage, and water distribution. Landsales have been ahead of appraisal estimates with nearly all of availableplots either firmly committed or being negotiated. These sales have beenachieved at an average sales price of B 300,000 per rai, as compared toprojected sales price of B 250,000 per rai in the appraisal. In order toaccommodate substantial demand for the Export Processing Zone, the estate areahas been enlarged to 30 ha.
Loan No. 992 Second Industrial Finance Corporation of Thailand (IFCT)Project; $11.7 Million Loan of June 4, 1974; EffectiveDate: September 4, 1974: Original Closing Date: September 30,1978; Current Closing Date: December 31, 1980
Since June 1974 when the loan was made, IFCT's financial conditioncontinued to be good. The loan is fully committed and nearly disbursed.
Loan No. 1327 Third IFCT Project; $25 Million Loan of December 8, 1976;Effective Date: March 14, 1977; Closing Date: December31, 1980
The loan commitment rate was initially slower than expectedbecause of sharply depressed investment climate in 1976. The IFCT's capitalstructure and liquidity position have improved, however, with successful sharecapital increases. Satisfactory progress has been made on theinstitution building aspects of the project.
- 38 - ANNEX II
Page 12 of 12
Credit No. 767 Population Project; $33.1 Million Credit of February 27, 1978:Effective Date: June 30, 1978; Closing Date: December 31,1981
Due to initial staffing problems, key project activities were held
up and major elements of the project are behind schedule. Appropriateaction is being taken to strengthen project management, improve coordinationand remove impediments to implementation. In accordance with the CreditAgreement the Government has (a) established and staffed the ProjectCoordinating Committee, which has met frequently; (b) established andstaffed the Project Administration and Financing Unit (PAFU); (c) appointeda project director, deputy director and two assistant project directors anda health planner/economist; and (d) initiated most of the key projectactivities at the national level and in the delivery of improved familyplanning and health services in 20 disadvantaged provinces.
- 39 -
ANNEX IIIPage 1
THAILAND
INLAND WATERWAYS AND COASTAL PORTS PROJECT
Supplementary Data Sheet
Section I - Timetable of Key Events
(a) Time taken by country to prepare the project: About 18 months;May 1978 to October 1979.
(b) Agency which prepared the project: the Harbour Departmentand consultants (BCEOM, Maunsell, Sindhu and Cooper Lybrand)financed under the Bank Loan 1519-TH.
(c) First presentation to the Bank: February, 1978First mission to consider the project: June 1978
(d) Departure of the Appraisal mission: November 1979
(d) Completion of Negotiations: May 16, 1980
(e) Planned Date of Effectiveness: October 1980
Section II - Special Bank Implementation Actions
None.
Section III - Special Conditions
(a) a program of technical assistance and training will beestablished for the Harbour Department (para. 45);
(b) The agencies controlling release of water from the various dams,shall ensure that, except in abnormally dry years, the agreedminimum flow in each section of upper and lower Chao Phrya andNan rivers will be maintained (para. 46);
(c) commercial sand dredging in the Chao Phrya river will be restrictedto the sections downstream of Ayutthya or upstream of Chainatdam (para. 46);
(d) land at Nakhon Sawan and Taphan Hin will be procured notlater than December 31, 1981 for construction of the ports(para. 47);
- 40 -ANNEX IIIPage 2
(e) the demonstration barges and pusher tug will be leased to anefficient private river craft operator on terms and conditionsagreed with the Bank (para. 48);
(f) an annual budget of B 55 million in 1979 prices will be fundedfor the annual maintenance program for the waterways and ports(para. 49);
(g) a new Waterways Management Division will be establishedin the Harbour Department (para. 51); and
(h) the recommendations of the Transport Planning Unit's study on usercharges for the inland waterways and ports will be implementedin consultation with the Bank (para. 56).
C:HINA. : - :- :-J NAKHON NAYOK
KANCHANABUR *A. PR H IN B
IET NAMONHALJI
RATCHABURI N
THAILAND ' AI~J4,R
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INLAND WATERWAYS ANDCOASTAL PORTS PROJECT
Coastal PortsHUCI-'MPHON PATTANI PROJECT PORTS
t/ .fgY ) .47, COASTAL PORTS
10 R } CJPANONG p a CHANGWAT CENTERS 10-O 2fJr0 C" ........ / Longsuon ROADS
-4i--s- RAILWAYS
- CHANGWAT BOUNDARIES
-S y- - INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
Ar,i\ d a4 m a k Phonnng
Mc ltKRABI *Tu \I87 Gulf of Thai/and 8
18 TF 1 HTHALUN t
t > C NGK~~~~~~~~~~OGHLA
~~< tJ-- :. ng.esr \ _ t *N HIWAT
MILES
MILES :.:'2 ~~~~~~T .......... -- ::-:\ 1 \ ~~~~~~~~~. .... ... ... ..9B0 50 10 a \:: .::.:-:: :O
-6' ' 0 ) - 6°KILOMETERS )~~~~~~~~~~.. .. ... .;
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9 . //0 H. N A
BRU8MAS D)SIR/KIT DAM
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I 70/ ,2\ SJHTI ° THALAYI7 ND
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INLAND WATERWAYS AN \ X JJr %~~~~~~~~~~~~A ASI
/ S~~~~~UKHOTHAI AHQ 1/A A AASA~
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AMPHAENG PHET
16 I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~om~~~~~~~,vejK Topho,,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1'
TH| RAILROANDSAN~' BHAINATAo PHRYA \ /J-g Mol-k 387 K,
INLAND WATERWAYS ANCOASTAL PORTS PROJECT NAHN
Chao Phrya Waterway SWN 3
DEPTH OVER 2 METERS ~h. K 2 K\
tEiojmIIE DEPTH LIMIT I 7 METERS TH ANI
®1 CHANGWAT CENTERS
- ROADS
-RAILROADS CHAIA PH-YTA DAMA
DAMS
. - \(CHANGWAT BOUNDARIES 15'
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e
INTERHNMTIONALF BUUNDARIES
0 25 RATCHA BURLO BURI ' U 75-
,AMOT SONG KHRAM -CHON BUR)
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' H I A.tf M. <T CHN --E>a',
F ,} gttVIETTNAM INLAND WATERWAYS AND COASTAL PORTS PROJECTr Z \ THAILANDA C S
Typical Use of Groins, Low Dikes and Bottom Panels
\\1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a Bg CrH,Eg
dt;/~ ~ ~ ~ ~~P A 9 GRIN TOBrE NTERGTBN
Se,,, hlaee
Bon Bong ChaP L A N , ~~~~~~~~~~9 GROINS TO BE SET ON THE RIGHT BANK
E
¢ CLT OTT GROINS AND LOW GlEES Q<) -} ST GAUGE
20+ won TC N D DI Bon T Ni 4 ROIS TOBE ET LW DKE AD GOIN EL-AO t~ jl5j
ON ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~IT 40E LEFTNBANK
0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ET 200 BELO LOW WATER
20A m M S L ALIGNMENT
l2j7~~~~~- ~~~~ CNANNC-TDT TG STLIGMET
LONGITUDINAL PROFILEVATER SURFACE LEVEL FOR QI 300m3/s AT NAKHON SAWAN
da~~ 2,E:':g;i M h 0
TE1TH U EWL WATO BE DREDGEDER
4 GROINS TO BE SETTO_BE____ DGWDIK N RISEEAIN 55
10 . 1
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