food security resulting from climate change

Household Vulnerability to Food Security Resulting from Climate Change in the Philippines

Food and Nutrition Research InstituteDepartment of Science and Technology

Background


As defined in the World Food Summit, food security is existing“when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, andnutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life”.

WHO, 1996

Food Security


Food Security

Food Security

ProductionProduction

ConsumptionConsumption

DistributionDistribution

Food Security Concept


Chronically Food Insecure

• food insecure today and likely to be so in the future unless assisted

Temporarily Food Secure

• food secure today but likely to be food insecure in the future unless assisted

Temporarily Food Insecure

• food insecure today but likely to be food secure in the future without any assistance

Permanently Food Secure

• food secure today and likely to be food secure in the future even without assistance

Food Security Concept


What is vulnerability?

Vulnerability = sensitivity + exposure - adaptability

HazardHazard

ExposureExposure

ImpactImpact

SensitivitySensitivity

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity

Vulnerability to Climate ChangeVulnerability to Climate Change

Outcome VulnerabilityOutcome Vulnerability Contextual VulnerabilityContextual Vulnerability

income

gender

occupation


What is vulnerability to climate change?


Why assess vulnerability?

Priority Setting

Developing policies and adaptation strategies

Fostering collaboration


Literature reviews

Literature reviews

Identification and selection of variables

Identification and selection of variables

Statistical assessment Statistical

assessment Vulnerability

IndexVulnerability

IndexPolicy

SimulationPolicy

Simulation

Vulnerability Assessment Framework


Classification of Vulnerability Index And Energy Consumption

Not Vulnerable Vulnerable

0.5 10

Vulnerability Index

Caloric threshold

Inadequate Energy Intake Adequate Energy Intake

0


Objectives of the Study

• identify and map the location of vulnerable groups

• determine the degree of vulnerability

• formulate policies that help a community or a particular household adapt to climate shocks

• determine the association of policy-related actions with small adverse effects of climate change


Data Sets Used

FNRISocio-demographic,

household information and dietary variables

Age of hh headSex of hh head

Occupation of hh headNo of appliances ownedTotal calories consumed

Etc.

NSO

Wealth-related variables

Total IncomeShare of Income from

Farming

PAGASA

Downscaled climate data

PrecipitationMaximum TemperatureMinimum Temperature


Results


Self-Assessed Hunger, Inadequate Energy Intakeand Vulnerability

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Vulnerable

InadequateEnergy Intake

Self-AssessedHunger

Proportion

2003 National Estimates of Food Insecurity


Self-Assessed Hunger, Inadequate Energy Intakeand Vulnerability

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2003 Regional Estiamtes Food Insecurity

Self Assessed Hunger (Proportion) Inadequate Energy Intake (Proportion) Vulnerability Index (mean)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1-4 5-8 9-12 13 upHousehold Size

Inadequate Energy Intake (proportion) Vulnerability Index (mean)

2003 Estimates of Vulnerability across Household Size


2003 Estimates of Vulnerability across Educational Attainment of Household Head

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

At most 3rd Grade 3rd Grade - 4th YearHigh School

1st year College - 3rdYear College

College Graduate andAbove

Educational Attainment

Inadequate Energy Intake (proportion) Vulnerability Index (mean)


2003 Estimates of Vulnerability and Fraction of Calorie Consumed Relative to Expected Calorie Consumption

Calorie Consumed Over Expected Calorie Consumption

Vuln

erab

ility

Inde

x

10

20

0.4

0

.6

0.

8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0


2003 Estimates of Vulnerability and Precipitation(Agricultural Households)

2003 Rainfall (mm)

Vuln

erab

ility

Inde

x

0.0

0.

2

0.4

0.6

0

.8

1.0

1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Lowess smoother


2003 Maximum Temperature (C)

Vuln

erab

ility

Inde

x

0.0

0.

2

0.4

0

.6

0.8

1.0

27 28 29 30 31 32

0.2

.4.6

.81

2003 Estimates of Vulnerability and Maximum Temperature(Agricultural Households)


2003 Minimum Temperature (C)

Vuln

erab

ility

Inde

x

0.0

0

.2

0.

4

0.6

0

.8

1.

0

14 16 18 20 22 24 14 16 18 20 22 24

2003 Estimates of Vulnerability and Minimum Temperature(Agricultural Households)


VulnerableTotalInadequate Energy

Intake No Yes

No 40.99% [0.2057] 4.23% [0.6650] 45.22 [0.2487]

Yes 5.91% [0.3257] 48.87% [0.8051] 54.78 [0.7534]

Total 46.90% [0.2209] 53.10% [0.7940] 100.00 [0.5252]

Inadequate energy intake and Vulnerability in the Philippines, 2003(population shares in % and mean vulnerability probability in parenthesis)

Vulnerability and Inadequate Energy Intake


• 48.87% of households are chronically food insecure (food insecure today and likely to be so in the future unless assisted)

• 4.23% of households are temporarily food secure (food secure today but likely to be food insecure in the future unless assisted)

• 5.91% of households are temporarily food insecure (food insecure today but likely to be food secure in the future without any assistance)

• 40.99% of households are permanently food secure (food secure today and likely to be food secure in the future even without assistance)

Summary of Food Insecurity of 2003


Simulation


Simulation: Maximum Temperature and Vulnerability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

actual 5% increase in maximumtemperature

10% increase in maximumtemperature

Mea

n Vu

lner

abili

ty

2003 2008


Maximum Temperature in the Philippines (1979-2050)


Simulation: Minimum Temperature and Vulnerability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

actual 5% increase in minimumtemperature

10%increase in minimumtemperature

Mea

n Vu

lner

abili

ty

2003 2008


Minimum Temperature in the Philippines (1979-2050)


Simulation: Educational Attainment and Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

actual mimimum ofelementary level

minimum of highschool level

at least college

Mea

n Vu

lner

abili

ty

2003 2008


Thank You.We do not own/claim any of the pictures

included in this presentation.

Characteristics Of Household Head

• Age• Education• Civil Status• Sex

• Occupation• Place of Work• Physiological Status

Variables Used in the Study


Characteristics Of Household Dwelling

• Number of Rooms• Other rooms used for sleeping • Tenure status of Dwelling unit• Tenure status of lot• Roofing Materials• Walling Materials

• Flooring Materials• Type of Dwelling Unit• Availability of Electricity• Appliances• Toilet Facility• Household Size


Communication Infrastructure

• Telephone/Cellphone

Household Transportation

• Car• Motorcycle/Tricycle


Climate Variables

• Level change of Rainfall relative to past 20 year average• Level change of Maximum and Minimum Temperature

relative to past 20 year average• Climate type

Wealth Index

• Total Income• Share of Agricultural Income

Vulnerability Equation

Vulnerability to food security was defined as:

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