Food and Feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in NARS

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Girma Mamo (PhD),

Senior Agro-meteorologist

Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Research Process, EIAR

28 January 2014“Everybody talks about weather,

but nobody does anything about it

The time honoured quip of Charles Dudley Walker

Objectives of the Objectives of the presentationpresentation

Presentation outlinePresentation outline Introduction

Why does the climate change Understanding the national development plan of Ethiopia Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission in Ethiopia

What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge?

Extent of mainstreaming CCA & mitigation issues into NARS

Complex challenges, but amenable to research

Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks

Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation & climate smartness

Ongoing research topics (thematic areas) of interest

Potential topics for research interventions

Institutional challenges

Emerging opportunities, not only just a challenge

Why does Why does the the climate climate change? change?

Understanding the Understanding the national development national development plan plan of Ethiopiaof Ethiopia

A number of major policies and programmers that target current vulnerability, and are already implementing (adaptation) options:

But are not fully resilient to future climate change and need to evolve to take longer-term climate change into account

On the whole, the policies appear progressive and offer much potential

◦ Out of 150 million tons of CO2e GHGs emission >85% is from agriculture and forestry) The current cattle population is

more than 50 million and other livestock nearly 100 million. 65 Mt CO2e.

For soil based emission, potentially highest

(~10 Mt CO2e) as well as by

emitting N2O from crop residues reintroduced into the ground

(~3 Mt CO2e per hectare). Swathes of deforestation: 55 Mt

CO2e i

Provocative question

But why Ethiopian economic development trajectory clings to agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate risks?

Agriculture is the largest source of Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission GHGs emission FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA

3

More than 85% of today’s GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from forestry and agriculture

50%

3%

BuildingsIndustry

3%Power

3%

Forestry37%

Agriculture

3%Transport

Share of GHG emissions, 2010

Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO2e in 2010

What agricultural research can What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge?help in this complex challenge?

NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging opportunities

Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]

Cont’dCont’d

Translating strategic GTP objectives into green, climate resilient,

ultimately outlining concert research questions and objectives

NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the

government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging

opportunities Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies

that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]

Extent of mainstreaming climate change Extent of mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation issues into NARS adaptation and mitigation issues into NARS programs programs National Agricultural Research System (NARS)

evolved through several stages since its 1st initiation during late 1940s.

The establishment of the then Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) in 1966 saw the first nationally coordinated research system

Federal system i.e NARS EIAR+ RARIs + HLIs EIAR countrywide coordination of agricultural research conduct research on constraints of nationwide importance RARIs focus on their own region specific

constraints

NARS -- 69 research centers across various agro-ecological zones

Variation in experience, human and facility.

Staff numeracy and literacy working for Staff numeracy and literacy working for Biometrics, GIS and Agro-meteorology of NARS, Biometrics, GIS and Agro-meteorology of NARS, relative to ECA countriesrelative to ECA countriesNARS members

Agromet Statistics GIS and remote sensing

PhD MSc BSc PhD MSc BSc PhD MSc BSc Total

EIAR 1+1*

5 3 1 2 3 - 2 - 18

ARARI

SARI

OARI 2 2

TARI 1* 1 2

Total 2 8 3 1 1 3 2 1 22

Complex challenges, but amenable to research in the Complex challenges, but amenable to research in the face of ensuring food and feed production under the face of ensuring food and feed production under the changing climatechanging climate

Deepening poverty

Inability to invest for

productivity/profitability

Poor health, malnutrition

Low ecological/

System Productivity

Global

warming

Deforestation, Farming on

steep slopes (soil erosion)

Scarcity of land

Poverty

RisingPopnGrowt

h

Increased GHGs

Emission

(CO2

at large)

Climate Change

Social

Non-climatic

(land use change)

Climatic

Economic

Understanding and modeling impacts Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks on Ethiopian of climate risks on Ethiopian agriculture agriculture

Adaptation Increasing the society’s adaptive capacity, against the highly likely impacts of the climate on economy wide sectors

Mitigation Directing efforts towards reducing the emission of GHGs, from the agriculture oriented development perspectives, it means reducing impacts of bad practices on climate change through alternatives

Increasing carbon sequestration in the soil (the second largest pool of carbon, next to ocean)

Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation Mitigation and Climate Smartness and Climate Smartness

Climate smart agriculture

The process by which communities reduce the adverse impacts of shocks and stresses on their livelihoods and well-being, and also take a stock of advantages from the new opportunities provided by the changing enviroment (successful, appropriate and sustanable)

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Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and climate smartness …Contn’dMitigation and climate smartness …Contn’d

Impact pathways we follow in climate research Impact pathways we follow in climate research across programs across programs in NARS in NARS Assessing agricultural vulnerability/resilience to climate change in regional contexts (assessments, multi-scale models, place-based analysis with stakeholders)

(society, environment, economy) Downscaling General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs to

target localities Impact analyses of climate on

Crops (grain +feed)

Searching for alternate adaptation strategies and building on home grown (indigenous) strategies

Technology verification and release Communication Technology pre-scaling up

Program

Research topics (thematic areas) of interest w/r to climate change

Food and feed crops

•Environmental characterization Soil, climate and water (adaptation is location specific)•Crop and cultivar choice for climate change adaptation Breeding for carbon and nitrogen efficient crop varieties

Breeding for drought and heat tolerance •Managing agricultural water more efficientlyIncreasing water productivity through integrated approach (soil-crop-atmosphere continuum) modeling and field research

Increasing effective water use

Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation

Irrigation water management (specialization)

Economics/cost of adaptation (cost above one allocated for normal development plans)

Program

Research topics (thematic areas) of interest w/r to climate change

Food and feed crops

Managing land sustainably and increasing crop production

Conservation agriculture (organic matter building and at the same time ensuring soil carbon sequestration (climate change mitigation) employing

Carbon and nitrogen efficient crop varieties Minimum disturbance of soil Crop rotation and intercropping Integrated use of fertilizers (Organic maturing Ensuring feed availability to ensure residue availability

Potential topics for research interventions Potential topics for research interventions

Aggregating emissions throughout the livestock commodity chain - from feed production

ranging from chemical fertilizer production, deforestation for

pasture and feed crops, and pasture degradation),

through animal production

including enteric fermentation and N2O emissions from

manure) to the CO2 emitted during processing and

transportation of animal products

Extension and participatory research for engaging farmers and other stakeholders in building capacity for climate change and agriculture; Examples of linking farmers to climate information to improve agroecosystem management/food systems

improved animal nutrition and manure management to cut methane and nitrogen emissions

The future of the livestock-environment interface could be shaped by how we resolve the balance of two demands

i.e animal food products+ environmental services

Livestock production also impacts heavily water supply, mainly for the irrigation of feed crops.

Potential topics for research interventions.... Potential topics for research interventions....

Livestock accounts for nine percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, most of it due to expansion of pastures and arable land for feed crops.

Livestock generates even bigger shares of emissions of other gases with greater potential to warm the atmosphere: as much as 37 percent of anthropogenic methane,

mostly from enteric fermentation by ruminants, and 65

percent of anthropogenic N2O, mostly from manure.

Potential topics for research interventions.... Potential topics for research interventions....

Institutional challenges Institutional challenges

Institution Challenge

Agricultural Research

Mainstreaming climate risk issues into the government funded commodity based research projects looks formidable: Revisiting the research strategy is required

Revising the existing research strategy in relation to emerging issues

Genotype x environment x management (GxExM) interactions research through development of climate-crop modelling

Ministry of Agriculture

Lack of fine resolution agroecological zones map (1:1000000 scale)

Poor data quality on area/production and yield/marketing

Climate information extension service not mainstreamed/ integrated into existing development extension system

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Policy makers

Limited climate sensitivity of most robust agricultural development programs

No climate policy (eg; National Drought Policy,)

Poor institutional setting for coordination and networking of key climate-agriculture role players

Farmers Change in perception: If it rains I will plant, if doesn’t rain I will not plant, so why do I worry

about climate?.

Every crises related to drought and famine owes only to bad luck and God’s wrath

Slow rate of adoption of improved technologies (built risk averse behavior, worry about downside production risk)

Enhancing use of indigenous practices home grown adaptation options

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Institutional challenges

Emerging opportunities, just not onlyEmerging opportunities, just not only a challenge a challenge

We believe time is for inter-institutional collaboration The climate science is advancing at a significant rate Ethiopian government is committed to build an adaptive

capacity of the society to the pressure of climate risks Climate resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE).

Compelling reasons to expand government funded research projects to include adaptation-mitigation

◦ Institutions; like EIAR are building the capacity in climate research.

Climate money is hovering in the air any one with good idea has an opportunity to access.

Time is right and ripe to confront climate change and that, international donors are demonstrating great interest.

Who are beside us in the move? Who are beside us in the move? CGIAR Centers collaborating with NARS CGIAR Centers collaborating with NARS

ICARDA ILRI IFPRI ICRISAT CIMMYT IITA IRRI CIP CIAT IWMI NRVDC IPGRI ARC ICRAF

Pleasure to have your attention!

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