Hawai„i 100% RPS Goals An exceptional journey or a woeful path?

IPS Connect 2016 Rick Rocheleau

Hawaii Natural Energy Institute

University of Hawaii at Manoa

December 2, 2016

Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI)

• Founded in 1974, established in statute in 2007

• Mandated by statute to support state efforts to reduce use of fossil fuels.

• Hawaii barrel tax funds near term projects to support RPS goals

Organized Research Unit in School of Ocean and Earth Science

and Technology at University of Hawaii

Areas of Interest

• Alternative Fuels

• Electrochemical Power Systems

• Renewable Power Generation

• Building Efficiency

• Transportation

• Grid Integration

Functions

· Research & Development

· Technology Validation &

Implementation

· Analysis & Modeling

· State Energy Policy Support

· Education and Training

2

Crude Oil Supplies to Hawaii

100% of

the crude

oil for the

State is

imported

Hawaii Department of

Business, Economic

Development &

Tourism

3

Energy Insecurity

• Hawaii is the most petroleum dependent state in the nation

• ~70% of electricity generated from oil

• Over 40 million barrels of petroleum were imported for energy

use in 2015

• Highest electricity prices in the nation

ELECTRICITY 32%

JET FUEL 34%

GASOLINE/ 27%

MARINE FUEL

OTHER 7%

Abundant and Diverse Renewable Resources

Aggressive Clean Energy Policy

Highest RPS Target

in the United States

40% by 2030

• Tax incentives

• Net metering

• Feed in tariffs

Strong Hawaii Policies

5

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

The State of Hawaii, US DOE, and local utility

launched HCEI in 2008 to transform Hawaii to

a 70% clean energy economy by 2030:

2008

2009 2011 Policy Evolution Reflecting

Market Realities …

Amended the definition of "renewable electrical

energy" to include, customer-sited,

grid-connected renewable energy generation

2015 Major Policy Evolution …

• 100% RPS

• Net metering changes

Hawai„i: 4 electric utilities;

6 unique island grids

1200MW

80MW

5MW

200MW

190MW • Isolated – no interconnections

• Wind and solar well correlated

• Land availability and community

acceptance

5MW

RPS

30% by 2020

70% by 2040

100% by 2045

High electricity costs offers opportunity to engage new

technologies and solutions

4

7

Economics and Policies led Hawaii to highest per

capita solar in the US

Over 77,000 photovoltaic

systems interconnected or

approved by Hawaiian Electric

Companies.

Over 26,000 PV arrays

installed or approved in 2015

( compared to 14,000 in 2014)

HECO has installed or

approved PV for 17% of its

customers including 32% of

single-family homes

• 2009 – 2015: Net Energy Metering

• 2015-2016 Grid Supply

• 2016-? Self Supply

Applications

down

Regulatory Changes and Technical Improvement Allowed

High Circuit Penetration

High PV Circuit Penetration Levels

> 250% of daytime minimum load Manage distribution level

impacts of PV

New regulatory and policy for

smarter growth

• Time of use pricing

• Technology agnostic grid

services tariffs

• Integration with transportation

• Storage (energy and ancil

services)

• Demand response

• Smart grids, smart inverters

Oahu Circuit Penetration Map

Renewable Mix, Penetration, and Solution

Varies by Island

9

Oʻahu

Molokaʻi

Maui

Hawaiʻi Lanaʻi 34%

15%

17%

47% % Renewable

~23%

Kauaʻi (KIUC): 78MWp

52.6 MW PV / 7 MW biomass / 9 MW hydro

(+6.6 MW PV under review)

Installed PV: 67% of System Peak

Maui (MECO) 202 MWp

74 MW PV / 72 MW Wind

(+40 MW PV approved or under review)

Installed PV & Wind:

72% of Sys. Peak

Oahu (HECO) 1,206 MWp

329 MW PV / 99 MW wind/ 69 MW WTE

(+227 MW PV & wind approved or under review)

Installed PV & Wind:

35% of System Peak

Hawaiʻi (HELCO) 192 MWp

75 MW PV / 30 MW wind /

38 MW geothermal / 16 MW hydro

(+31 MW PV approved or under review)

Installed PV & Wind:

55% of System Peak

Kaua‟i

Total PV (installed, approved, under review) = 835MW

~ 50% of peak; ~60% of avg daytime load

KIUC Battery Energy Storage Systems • 2011-12: Xtreme, Advanced Lead Acid, 4.5 MW/3 MWh (regulation, reserves)

• 2015: SAFT, Lithium Ion, 6 MW/4.6 MWh (regulation, reserves)

• 2017: Tesla Lithium Ion, 13 MW/52 MWh (load shifting), coupled with 13 MW Solar

City PV plant to provide dispatchable solar

Kauai – System Solutions

Pair storage with project

developers

• Reduce risk

• Use for grid support, not

individual project support

73% solar penetration

89% renewable

11

Is Low-hanging Fruit Gone?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro

Geothermal

Biomass

Biofuels

Wind

CPV

DPV

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2014 2015 2016

Last 5 Years

Last 9 Quarters

Source: Hawaiian Electric Key Performance Metrics,

https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/about-us/key-performance-

metrics/renewable-energy

Power Systems Modeling for Grid Planning

• Established and experienced team (HNEI, GE)

• Strong advisory committee HPUC, CA, DBEDT, NREL, HECO,

MECO, HELCO, energy developers

• Models and procedures accepted by broad range of stakeholders

• Seven studies completed <www.hnei.Hawaii.edu

13

Production Cost

Modeling

Cost / Benefit

Analysis

Power Flow

Analysis Mitigations

Current studies focused on dynamic stability, grid strength,

impact/value of mitigation measures

Pathways to Higher Renewables Identified

1

4

Oahu Only Growth

Gen-Tie Only

Maui Grid-Tie Only

Gen-Tie and Maui Grid-Tie

Source: Hawaii RPS Study

Enablers

• Flexible thermal fleet

–Faster quick starts

–Deeper turn-down

–Faster ramps

• Generation Diversity

• Smaller contingencies

• Improved forecasting

• Reserves from renewables

• Smart Inverters

• Demand response

• Energy storage

• Electric vehicles

System Impacts at “Modest” Penetration Oahu: 25% available wind and solar

(RPS Study, 2015)

1

5

Average March day • Steep generation ramps am

and pm

• Little direct support for peak

• Modest curtailment

High Renewables March day • Steeper generation ramps

• Significant curtailment

• Dynamic stability issues?

Storage Effectiveness Advanced grid, high W&S penetration

16

• Wind allows higher inititial penetration

• Storage ineffective for wind due to resource variability

• Maximize wind…..add solar…..complement with storage (cost and resource dependent)

Deliv

ere

d e

nerg

y (

GW

h)

Storage capacity (GWh)

Hours to charge battery:

High/low wind days

are highly clustered

Grid Systems Technologies Advanced Research

Team

17

• Interdisciplinary team of faculty, professionals, post-doctoral fellows and

students at HNEI (includes over 100 years cumulative utility and regulatory

experience)

• Serves to integrate HNEI efforts across other technology areas

• Expertise includes grid modeling and analysis; smart grid and micro-grid

R&D; application of grid storage; power system planning and operations;

energy policy

• Strong partnerships with Hawaii, national and international organizations

(especially Asia-Pacific)

Established team to develop, test and evaluate advanced grid architectures,

enabling policies, and new technologies and methods for effective integration

of renewable energy resources and power system optimization

photos courtesy of Altairnano

Grid Scale BESS Projects (HNEI)

Haw‟i 10 MW Wind farm at Upolu Point Hawaii Island (1MW)

• Frequency regulation and wind smoothing (4 years, > 6000cycles)

Molokai Secure Renewable Microgrid (2MW)

• Operating reserves, (fault management), frequency regulation,

power smoothing, and peak shifting (<50ms response)

Campbell Park industrial feeder with high penetration (1MW)

• Power smoothing, voltage and VAr support

Laboratory testing of single cells to assess performance,

durability, and state-of-health

1

8

Conduct experiments to assess/optimize BESS performance and

lifetime for high value grid applications

Power smoothing from 10MW Hawi wind farm

Frequency Response Adjustable Deadband

Reduce battery cycling while

maintaining grid support.

Bat

tery

Po

wer

1000kW

-1000kW

60 Hz Grid Frequency

Adjustable Slope is the Gain in MW/Hz

Adjustable Deadband in

mHz

19

• Black: BESS off

• Pink: 30MW/Hz, no deadband

• Red: 20MW/Hz, 20MHz

deadband.

• Lower gain with deadband

provides 65% of value using

1/3rd the cycling of the battery

• Impact on utility generators

under evaluation

Frequency Regulation

Background (OFF) Frequency Variability

[Hz]

Background (OFF) Frequency Variability

[Hz]

(ON

) F

requen

cy V

aria

bil

ity [

Hz]

E

ner

gy T

hro

ugh

pu

t [k

Wh

]

20

• Develop and validate advanced functionality of smart inverter

• implement enhanced capability “smart” inverters on operating utility

distribution feeders with a high penetration of rooftop PV

• Employ detailed distribution modeling and high-resolution field data

to develop advanced inverter settings

• Stabilized voltage profile across the length of the distribution feeder

can maximize the opportunity for conservation voltage reduction

(CVR)

21

One of four related projects on Maui,

having partners in common and shared

hardware, results, and lessons learned

Advanced Renewable Microgrids Opportunities to extend knowledge secured across Asia-Pacific region

Coconut Island is

an opportunity to

test advanced

technologies and

microgrid control

strategies for high

reliability loads in a

challenging marine

environment

JBPHH is an

opportunity to develop

a grid modernization

strategy and action

plans to enhance

service reliability and

achieve high PV

penetration on a large-

scale microgrid

Moku o Lo’e DC Microgrid

(Coconut Island)

Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam Microgrid

MOLOKAI

~ 2.5 MW of Distributed

Rooftop PV Molokai is an

opportunity to

address very high

levels of distributed

PV while

maintaining grid

reliability and

resiliency

22

500 kW Grid 5 MW Grid

50+ MW Grid

Molokai Island Microgrid

Curtailment with excess solar

23

Minimum Dispatchable Generation

Net

Load

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Day of the Year 0

100%

Solar saturation: no curtailment

1.5X “solar capacity: 1% over 204 hours

2X “solar capacity: 6% over 840 hours

The Path Forward • Develop implementable plans based on reality of current grid

operations

• Engage and keep engaging as many stakeholder groups as possible to align

goals and approaches

• “No-regrets’ plans for long-term growth with consideration of long-term goals.

• Embrace innovation and technological change but make decisions

based on “reality”

• Develop policy that offers freedom of solutions - tailored for

specific grid systems

• Don‟t forget reliability – small changes in unit outage rates can have

big impact on “Loss of Load Expectations

25

MAHALO

For more information, contact:

Rick Rocheleau

Hawaii Natural Energy Institute

1680 East-West Road, POST 109

Honolulu, Hawaii 96822

Office: (808) 956-8346

Mobile: (808) 389-9944

E-mail: rochelea@hawaii.edu

Website: www.hnei.hawaii.edu