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Flemish coast & BPNS Dr. Frank Maes Ghent, 12 May 2009 Slide 2 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location Slide 3 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea & coast Geographical Location Slide 4 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea (BPNS) & Flemish coast Geographical Location Over 85 % of the coast is below 5 m elevation, which places it at increased risk of sea level rise and extreme weather events The coastal plain is about 65 km long and 10 to 15 km wide, and comprises beach, dunes and polders. On the seaward side, on the shallow continental shelf, we find numerous sandbanks. There are 10 coastal municipalities 60% of the coastline is protected by artificial coastal defence structures (e.g. groins, seawalls, beach groins, breakwaters) The remaining 40% is protected by soft and dynamic coastal defence (e.g. dry beach elevation, beach nourishment, planting of brushwood, sand fences, planting of marram grass) About 20 % of the coastline is sedimentary, 40 % is erosive and the remaining part is relatively stable. Slide 5 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Management framework Involvement of relevant authorities: competences Slide 9 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Multi-level government Involvement of relevant authorities: competences Federal competences: Marine Environment Protection Concessions, permits and monitoring wind turbines at sea Shipping Sand and gravel extraction Scientific research Flemish competences: Fisheries Aquaculture Permits for dredging Flemish competences: The beach Coastal defence Tourism/ recreation Ports Pilotage Nature protection 10 coastal municipalities Province of West Flanders Coordination ICZM Emergency planning Polders Slide 10 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea & beaches Historical Background of Expert Couplet MI-MDK Almost 8 years of cooperation related to legal matters, mainly studies: 1. legal basis Coordination Centre ICZM and cooperation on ICZM with all stakeholders 2. beach nourishment Ostend and EIA 3. initial development of a codex on marine legislation 4. concession policy for yacht clubs at the Flemish coast 5. expert couplet in COREPOINT MDK has a long lasting cooperation with Ghent University in legal, ecological (marine biology) and technical (civil engineering) matters Slide 11 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Existing Management and Climate Change strategies The coordination centre for Integrated Coastal Zone Management The global aim is supported by three strategic objectives: 1. Collaborate to implement the recommendation of the European Parliament and the Council of May 30th 2002 concerning the implementation of integrated management of coastal regions in Europe 2. Promote the integration of planning and politics in the coastal region 3. Create a basis for integrated coastal zone management National Climate Plan 2002- 2012 only concerning emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol without mentioning adaptation Flemish Climate Plan 2002-2005 related to emission reduction Flemish Climate Plan 2006-2012 also related to adaptation: assessment of the impacts of climate change a cost-effective Flemish Adaptation Plan will be developed Slide 12 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Existing adaptation strategies Currently no existing adaptation strategies coastal defence policy (annual monitoring, sand nourishment program, five-year safety review) In the past hard coastal defence < 70 - restoration of natural dynamics (sand nourishment and managed retreat, where possible) Development of coastal safety plan (Masterplan 2050) (MDK) 5-year coastal defence safety assessment Risk management Defining flood risks Coastal defence measures + alternatives SCBA EIA Masterplan Slide 13 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Integrated Coastal Defence Plan safety assessmentflood risks measures/alternatives SCBA EIA legal framework MASTERPLAN risk management COMMUNICATION Slide 14 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies CLIMAR project Belgian Science Policy (MI) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities Objective Modelling of climate change induced primary and secondary impacts for the BPNS (case studies: fisheries and coastal defence) Identification of adaptation scenarios/measures for the two case studies Development of a sustainable adaptation strategy Takes into account socio-economic effects MDK and MI share information for the development of an adaptation strategy for the BPNS Slide 15 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies Climate change scenarios 2100 (2040) MM+WW+Worst Air temperature+ 2C + 4C Change air circulationNoYesNoYes Winter Precipitation+ 8%+ 14%+ 16%+ 28% Wind Velocity0 %+ 4%- 2%+ 8% Summer precipitation+ 6%- 20%+ 12%- 40% Sea water temperature+ 2,5C + 3,5C Mean Sea level+ 60 cm + 93 cm + 200 cm Slide 16 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies Identifying the local drivers/issues IssuesWhat is already happening?What could happen? (For Belgium ) temperatureglobal average temperature + 0.75 C (since 1850) + 1C to 2C (2040); + 2C to 4C (2100) seawater temperature + 0.04 C (since 1955)+ 1,2C to 1.7C (2040); + 2.5C to 3.5C (2100) Sea level1.69 mm per year from 1927 ; 3 mm per year from 1993 to 2006. + 0.30 m to 0.50 m (2040); + 0.60 m to 2m (2100) storms and waves average annual wind speed +10% (1960 - 2000 ) (for Belgium) increase from west southwest winds (for Belgium) storms will occur more frequently and more severe, this means that the wave height will increase acidificationincreasing acidity in surface waters due to increasing atmospheric CO further acidification, this adversely affect crustaceans and shellfish coastal erosion40% of the coastline is erosive, 20% is sedimentary rising sea levels/ increasing storms can worsen the erosion and sedimentation process Slide 17 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies/ Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009) Identifying the local drivers/issues IssuesWhat is already happening?What could happen? (For Belgium ) harmful algal bloomsHarmful algal blooms has increased in recent years in the northeast of the Atlantic Ocean An increase in summer temperature by up to 4 C by 2100 will lead to a doubling of potentially harmful algal blooms fishingImportant changes in plankton composition, have led the past decades to a poor food environment for the larvae of cod northward shift of marine species cod, haddock and halibut will disappear anchovies, sardines and mullet will occur wetlandsZwin already lose natural value by the encroachment of silting of the old Sincfal-channel relocation of current wetlands; due to sea level rises or wetlands will disappear (relocation not possible) seabirdsChanges in phytoplankton/zooplankton, have a direct impact on the sandeel population which affects the reproductive success of different seabirds such as puffin Slide 18 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009) Based on the guidance note (round-table discussion) Audience Invitations were sent to all sectors Only 18 participants (2 of the Flemish government, 1 for water recreation, 1 of the ports/shipping, 1 for fisheries, 1 for dredging, 1 for nature conservation and 10 researchers) No representatives for the local authorities/federal government/province No representatives for the coastguard, shipping assistance, energy sector, sand and gravel extraction and tourism some caution should be used when using the results of the workshop, at first not all sectors were present and secondly, the presence within the sector was relatively limited Resources Template (distributed in advance) with climate change issues and impacts identified on the basis of scientific research Slide 19 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009) Questions asked How do coastal- and marine-stakeholders in their sector experience the impacts of climate change today? Which impacts of climate change will affect the sector in the future according to coastal- and marine-stakeholders? Over what period will these impacts occur according to coastal- and marine-stakeholders (short-, medium- or long-term)? What impact will most affect the sector? How well is the sector equipped to deal with these impacts? Slide 20 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009) Conclusion Raising awareness about the need to adapt (sectors already taking some adaptation measures) Some changes are already visible but it is not always clear what the cause is of these changes (e.g. More storms; more marine mammals like seals and dolphins; more warm water species like anchovies, Japanese oyster, seahorses, more sludge after a storm, contaminated mussels) Some changes are positive others are negative depending on the sector Some sectors will be more affected by climate change impacts than others For instance fisheries will be affected by 90% of the climate change impacts, wile the shipping industry will be less affected by climate change impacts (like changes in fish population, harmful algal bloom, changes in temperature etc.) Need for more cooperation with the scientific sector (need to know the impacts of climate change, to efficiently adapt) Slide 21 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on coastal defence and adaptation measures (December 2008) Central question of the workshop: How can we adapt to the increasing risk of flooding due to climate change? Proposed adaptation measures Managed retreat: Advantages: positive effect on the biodiversity and the sedimentation process; Disadvantages: lack of suitable land due to dispersed habitation, cultural- historical objections to the excavation and raise of the polders and more salinization of agricultural land. Sand embankment into the sea: this idea may take various forms (creation of one or more islands before the coastline, raising of existing sand banks, extending the coastline by sand nourishment) Advantages: protection of the hinterland, possibility for aquaculture or recreation (diving), biological surplus value that can be created, possibility of introducing new technologies (absorbing wave energy to produce green energy) Slide 22 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on coastal defence and adaptation measures (December 2008) Dike in dune: an elevated dike will be constructed and then covered with sand Advantages: biological surplus Disadvantages: loss of view at sea Emergency plan: A rapid evacuation of the ground floor should be possible (within 15 minutes) and encouraging pile dwellings in flood areas. Disadvantages: all shops and parking space should be on the first floor Conclusions Combination of different measures is regarded as the most effective. Inland solutions seem difficult along our coast because of a shortage of space. Many possibilities for win-win situations with energy extraction, recreation, aquaculture,... Cost-benefit analysis is an important tool in evaluating adaptation measures and should be applied Slide 23 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on the impact of climate changes on the fisheries sector (December 2008) Conclusions The complexity of the Belgian sea fisheries sector and the ecosystem hamper the assessment of the impacts of climate change and the development of adaptation strategies, especially on the long-term. The Belgian fisheries fleet has a future, yet diversification and reengineering is needed. The ecological, economical and social aspects are equally important for the development of the sea fisheries into a sustainable activity. Slide 24 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Future scenario building Building adaptation scenarios for two case studies (fisheries and coastal defence) + using these for extrapolation to other marine ecosystem in general and to related socio-economic activities) Outcomes of the workshop of interest to know how the stakeholders looking towards adaptation and to prioritise responses Currently working on the development of socio-economic scenarios Other partners developing socio-economic scenarios? (share information) Climate change scenarios combined with socio-economic scenarios basis for the developing of adaptation scenarios Slide 25 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Future scenario building The coordination centre for Integrated Coastal Zone Management is important for the future management of are site fixed structure Delivering visualisation tool (kustatlas/www.kustatlas.be) Slide 26 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Learning to adapt Tools will be tested by means of workshops with stakeholder participation, by use,... We are not planning to hold a trainers workshop unless a clear demand from the partners As responsible partner for action 4.4, we are in a good position to assess the ability of local planning/policy/legislation to deal with future scenarios We will deliver a working document on climate change proofing of policies + assessment of proofing techniques (distributed to all the partners) Experience in climate change proofing of policies can be shared Information on existing adaptation strategies and how they have been developed in each site can be very useful Slide 27 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea Influencing change The public, local governments and stakeholders be informed about the project at workshops, conferences, presentations of publications. Te promotional bookmark of the project be distributed together with the website, as a source for further information We do not have a poster of the project, it would be useful to have on to exhibit at conferences and workshops Papers that have been made our send to coastnet (will they be published on the website as internal document?) Are locale adaptive management strategy will be published within the CLIMAR project Slide 28 Study Site Presentation Belgian Part of the North Sea More information of our site can be found on: http://www.arcadisbelgium.be/climar/ http://www.arcadisbelgium.be/climar/ http://www.kustatlas.be/en/ http://www.west- vlaanderen.be/NL/BestuurRegio/kustbeheer_en/Pages/default.aspx Maritime Spatial Planning BPNS A flood of space http://library.coastweb.info/96/ http://library.coastweb.info/96/ Maritime Spatial Planning Europe http://www.cscope.eu/en/ Thanks for your attention