Finnish Experiences in Technology Foresight

Eija Ahola, Tekes

l Technology foresight within the Finnish innovation systeml “Embedded foresight”: integration of evaluation, assessment

and foresightl Tekes perspective: technology strategy and technology

programmesl Technology foresight for innovations within industrial

clusters: project cases

The Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and Technology Policy27.-28 February 2003, Japan

Tekes

Sitra

Key actors of the Finnish innovation system

Finnish IndustryInvestment Ltd

Business AngelsInvestors

Companies

Research institutes

Universities

Academy of Finland

The Science andTechnology Policy

Council

Ministry of Education

AssociationsInventions

Private investmentsin innovation

Technology Centres

Centres of Expertise

Polytechnics

Regional TE-Centres

Regional Councils

Finnvera

FinproEU structural fundsfor innovation

Ministry of Trade and IndustryOther ministries

Investments in different sectorslike environment, health and traffic

National public investment ininnovation and know-how

Key actorsof the Finnish

innovation system

Key actorsof the Finnish

innovation system

Invest in Finland

Million euros

Innovation systemResources and funding in 2000

Pub

licP

riva

te

Basic research Applied research Business R&D

Business developmentMarketingInternationalisation

R&D at companies3,100

BusinessAngels

380

Finnvera320 (50)

Tekes2.400

VTT210 (60)

Universities790 (350)

Ministries, TE-Centres and sectoral research 290 (210)

Academy of Finland 160

Tekes380

From abroad120

Venture CapitalistsPrivate 350Tesi 45 (80)Sitra 100 (2)

Finpro60 (30)

Found. Innov.5

Technology foresight within the innovation system

Ministry ofEducation

Academy ofFinland

“science watch for programme strategy”

Universities

Ministry of Trade and Industry

“TF-coordination”

Regional TE-Centres“regional development”

Other ministriesand theirinstitutes

“resource strategy”

Sitra“structural challenges”

Science andTechnology

PolicyCouncil

PARLIAMENT: Committee for the future

VTT“research strategy”

GOVERNMENT

Tekes“technology strategy, programme strategy”

IndustrialAssociations

”R&D and educationpolicies”

“Embedded foresight”: integrating evaluation, technology assessment and technology foresight

Ruud Smits: Technology assessment and user oriented impact evaluation, EU DG Research and Tekes –workshop on Impact evaluation, 1999 Helsinki

operational strategic conceptual

supp

lysu

pply

/dem

and

dem

and

TA

FOREVA

2

1

3

4

“Embedded foresight”: integrating evaluation, technology assessment and technology foresight

National technology foresight networks, cooperation and coordination: l Parliamentary Committee for the Future has established an

expert-network to support their goals and projects; TAl Ministry of Trade and Industry has established several

networks within TF; between ministries, between MTI, Tekes, VTT and Academy of Finland, network of TF experts

l The two key processes of Tekes (competitive selection of funding, technology programmes) rely on technology strategy which is based on technology foresight

l Industrial cluster strategy is typically made within a technology foresight project

l Evaluation of technology programmes include integration of TF and TA into evaluations

l (“embedded” and integrated approach is still conceptual; methodologies, methods and processes need to be developed)

TECHOLOGY & INNOVATION POLICY PERFORMANCE

TF

AB

SOR

TIO

N C

APA

CIT

Y

SOCIAL & HUMAN CAPITAL in TF

TF

RE

SEA

RC

H C

APA

CIT

Y

Assessment of technology foresight within the Finnish innovation system

- dispersed IS- individual goals- little experience and expertise in TF

- increasing- cooperation- “policy towards innovations”

- emerging research field- small groups, dispersed- little links with technologyexperts and policy

- foreign TF reports- technology push-based- projects - industrial clusters

The Finnish Parliament Committee for the future Regional technology foresight activities The key role of Tekes in the innovation system

Benefits and challenges of Finnish technology foresight practices

Strengthsl Exploitation orientation l Effective; minimum effort, resources and organisationl Ongoing objective-oriented and strategic processl Directly implemented on technology policy level l Based on expertise and technology pushl Problem-orientation, strongly focused, on-demand

Challenges:l New knowledge creation?l Systematic analysis and data coverage?l Cooperation on national level, common visions?l New markets and new ideas for technology and innovations?l Broader views; consumers, citizens?

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY COUNCIL OF FINLAND, 12.12.2002SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY REVIEW

KNOWLEDGE, INNOVATION AND INTERNATIONALISATION

“ After an in-depth investigation of the national organisation of foresight and relevant needs, it is evident that it is time to proceed to more extensive and concrete projects.

Finland has the prerequisites for a national foresight exercise.Network-building and the monitoring of foresight methods and needs are not enough to keep up interest in the futures outlook among researchers, business enterprises and other players and to encourage them to contribute to foresight.”

http://www.minedu.fi/tiede_ja_teknologianeuvosto/eng/publications/Review_2003.html

Selective project funding

Technology programmes

Activation for innovation

Development of the innovationenvironment

International

technological

cooperation

and inter-

nationalisation

of companies

These key functions of Tekes provide for technology foresight:

1. Sources of visions, goals and demand for technologies2. Operative measures to implement technology strategy3. Cooperation and links within the innovation system (domestic and international, companies, universities,

CROs, ministries, other actors in the innovation system )

These key functions of Tekes provide for technology foresight:

1. Sources of visions, goals and demand for technologies2. Operative measures to implement technology strategy3. Cooperation and links within the innovation system (domestic and international, companies, universities,

CROs, ministries, other actors in the innovation system )

Tekes, the National Technology AgencyThe main public financer for applied and industrial R&D

Tekes, the National Technology AgencyThe main public financer for applied and industrial R&D

Tekesvision & strategy

Technology strategy

- critical technologies- core competences

CompaniesUniversities,

Researchinstitutes

Industrialassociations

Regional strategies/regional technology strategies

Trends on market

Technological trends

Global megatrends

Values and goalsof the society

Societal foresightstudies

The Academy of Finland

VTT

MTI

International contacts:

- IFTF, NISTEP, EU, IAF, Social Sciences etc.

International contacts:

IPTS etc.

Tekes Technology Strategy process

Growth of global markets

Finnish share of global markets IncreasingDecreasing

Slow

Fast

Real Estate and Construction

Real Estate and Construction

Informationand Communications

Informationand Communications

MetalMetal

ForestForest

Chemicaland Bio

Chemicaland Bio

EnergyEnergy

WelfareWelfare

FoodFood

EnvironmentEnvironment

Dynamics of Finnish Industrial ClustersTechnology and competence are sources of renewalTechnology and competence are sources of renewal

The future is in knowledge and competenceTechnology strategy – a review of choices

http://www.tekes.fi/eng/publications/index.html

Market drivers and technology drivers

Business competence in the networked economy

Development of industrial clusters: competitiveness and renewal of existing industries,

birth and growth of new businessesWelfare in line with sustainable development

Intelligent products, processes and systems

Sustainable development

Welfare

Knowledge-intensive services

Information and communications

technology

Bio-technology

Materialtechnology

General trends:

globalisation, knowledge and competence, digital era, networked economy, sustainable development, social

development, technological trends

Information and communications technology

Material technologyBiotechnology

Key Areas of Industrial Renewal and Welfare-promotion

Sustainable development

l future energy solutionsl environmental technologieslecological effectiveness

and low-emission processesl life-cycle solutions

Knowledge-intensiveservices

l knowledge-intensive business services

l product-integrated servicesl new technology-related services

Intelligent products,processes and systemsl adaptive and intelligent

products, materials and systemsl navigation and identification

l virtual models

Welfarel information and communications

technology for health carel functional foods

l targeted pharmaceuticalsand diagnosticsl healthy and safe living environment

Business competencein the networked economyl networks with new valuel cluster cooperationl fast commercialisation

of ideasldigital economy

Potential applications

Tekes Technology Programmes - the main tool to implement technology strategy

on technology policy level

l extensive programmes initiated by Tekesand consisting of numerous projects

l focused on a key technology sectorl implemented in cooperation by companies

and research unitsl 43 on-going programmes in 2002 with

a total extent of 1.5 billion eurosl Tekes participates in five programmes

started by the Academy of Finlandl c. half of Tekes funding goes through

technology programmesl Tekes usually finances half of programme

costsl annually 2000 company and 800 research unit

participations

TotalclusterTotal

cluster

Communication equipmentCommunication equipment

Instrumentation and automationInstrumentation and automation

Content businessContent business

Communication servicesCommunication services

Electrotechnicalproducts

Electrotechnicalproducts

Software businessSoftware business

FunctionalfoodsFunctionalfoods

BasicfoodsBasicfoods

TotalclusterTotal

cluster

Growth ofglobal markets

Finnish share of global markets IncreasingDecreasing

Slow

Fast

Forest chemicalsForest chemicals

MachineryMachineryHarvestingand logistics

Harvestingand logistics

Pulp and paperPulp and paper

Wood productsWood products

Total clusterTotal

cluster

ICT cluster Forest cluster

Food cluster

Technology foresight studies for cluster dynamics

Cluster-based technology foresights: - three cases of micro-level technology foresight

New R&D programme strategyWider exploring of R&D results

ICT aided embedded in-house: internet-survey, internet-voting, workshops, scoring; programme participants

- Evaluation ofprogramme, relevance of research and impacts on clustering

Forest, pulp and paperSystem analysis at the University of Technology

New innovation processesNew ideas for industrial and CROstrategy

Expert study: mediaholes, weak signals, scenarios, technology screening

- Potentialinnovations- Possibilities for Finland

Media and communicationsVTT Mediatech

New ideas forindustrial andtechnology strategyWider networks

Mix: interviews, workshops, international benchmarking; over 100 participants from many sectors

- Potential technologies- Innovation processes

Food clusterGaia Group

Main “systemic” results (impacts)

MethodologyGoals of the project

Industrial cluster