finding leverage with system dynamics

Finding Leverage Using Systems THINKING to Facilitate Adaptive Learning

A session for the Science of HOPE Conference

Presented by

Chris Soderquist, Pontifex ConsultingApril 19, 2016

http://www.findinghighleverage.com

Assumptions

• The rigorous and generous application of systems THINKING would greatly improve our effectivness at solving the difficult problems we face

• The way systems THINKING is taught and applied limits its adoption and impact


Leverage definedFEW

MANY

LITTLE FUNDAMENTAL

Uni

nten

ded

Con

sequ

ence

s

Change in Behavior

Tweaks

Fire-fighting Disasters!

High Leverage Fundamentally transforming system performance using minimum resources/effort and without falling prey to undesirable, unintended consequences


In order to apply systems thinking, the issue must have an “over time” component to it. i.e. How will / do(es) the issue(s) play out over time?

“Ah. It’s a seasonal business!”

Even when the structure (rules,policies, resources, beliefs, etc…) is hard to

physically see!

Systems Thinkers…

• Expand Field of Vision • Focus on the Physics • Build a Shared Picture • Build confidence • Make as Simple as Possible


To Find Leverage

What You Do

Expand Field of Vision • Time • Space

Focus on the Physics • Stocks / Flows • Feedback Loops

How You Do It

Build a Shared Picture • Everyone “sees” the

same thing • Often use visual tools

(graphs, maps) Build confidence

• Apply the scientific method

• Become “less and less…and less wrong”

How You Evaluate

Make as Simple as Possible • It captures the essence

of the issue • All aspects

unnecessary to understanding have been removed

• Occam’s Razor

You are developing a mental model of how the structure is generating the behavior of interest


You can find leverage applying a variety ofsystems THINKING processes and products

Barry Richmond’s Value to Effort Graph can help you choose what to use under what circumstances

In each product & process you will…

Expand Field of Vision Focus on the Physics Build a Shared Picture Apply Scientific Method Simple As Possibe

Conversational use of skills Systems THINKING questions

Simple stock/flow map

Simple model

Complex model

Effort/Time Required

Value Derived

Mother of all models

Trend over time graphs

Swee

t Spo

t


In doing systems THINKING there are 3 main products / processes

Conversational use of skills Systems THINKING questions

Simple stock/flow map

Simple model

Complex model

Effort/Time Required

Value Derived

Mother of all models

Trend over time graphs

In each product & process you will…

Expand Field of Vision Focus on the Physics Build a Shared Picture Apply Scientific Method Simple As Possibe

Swee

t Spo

t

1 Systems THINKING Questions

QUESTIONS

Expand Temporal View ?Expand Spatial View ?

Stocks & Flows ?Feedback Loops ?

Build a Useful Picture ?Build Confidence ?

Make Useful Sense ?

2 Trend Over Time Graphs

3 Stock and Flow Maps and Simulations


Let’s first focus on…


QUESTIONS




Make Useful Sense ?




QuarterlyProfitsforOurCompany

0

Profit(inMillionsof$)

20

-20Quarters

Reactive Taking a shot in the dark

Generates mental model of “the physics”

Howdoyoufeel?Whatwouldyoudo?

Missing enough to be dangerous!


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Obesity %Alaska Tennessee

Basedonthisgraph…Whatstateisdoingwellinthewinnablebatleofobesity?

Whatstatewouldyouhavecoachotherstates?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Alaska Tennessee

Obesity %

Basedonthisgraph…Whatstateisdoingwellinthewinnablebatleofobesity?

Whatstatewouldyouhavecoachotherstates?


• A trend graph is a graph over time that captures the essence of a problem or issue of interest.

• Trend graphs often contain a historical (“as is”) component as well as a projected (“to be”) component.

• In creating a trend graph, it is often helpful to normalize (e.g. average, %, outcome/patient) the variable.

• The unit of time (day, month, quarter, year, etc.) for the trend graph helps to set a temporal boundary for what to include in your analysis

% population receiving Medicaid

years

“As Is” “To Be”

Graduation rates

months

Sketch a Trend Graph for an Issue

Trend Over Time Graphs – TOT Graphs


• Each person does the following (no copying your neighbor’s work!)

• Draw one trend line you think most captures the important issues facing WA’s health!

• Try to normalize each variable • $/person • % of population • outcome/$ spent

• Draw the trend line • History • Future projection

• Get in a trio • Select one for your group you think would

generate an interesting discussion for the rest of room

YEARS

Indicator/variable

2000 2020

history future

2015

Drawing Trend Graphs Exercise


Purpose To understand and communicate the landscape of issues and interest across a broad constituency

How to… • Map the stakeholder

landscape• Determine 1-2 trend graphs

that “speak to” each group• Speaking to can be…

✴ The pain if the issue continues

✴ The benefit of implementing a proposed solution

✴ Other

The Big Kahuna Issue

Stakeholder Group A

Stakeholder Group B

Stakeholder Group C

Stakeholder Group D

Stakeholder Interest Diagram


Let’s now focus on…


QUESTIONS




Make Useful Sense ?




Noah Soderquist, 16avid aerospace nut, quoter of Neal deGrasse Tyson

and surprised by systems

In the 1950's The World Health Organization (WHO) financed and

supported the first ever team of over 14,000 parachuting cats into Borneo!


PlagueTyphus

?Killed geckos

Killed cats


Noah Soderquist, 16avid aerospace nut, quoter of Neal deGrasse Tyson

and surprised by systems

In the 1950's The World Health Organization (WHO) financed and

supported the first ever team of over 14,000 parachuting cats into Borneo!


Perspectives on Models

Cynic

It’sonlyamodel!Theworldismuchmorecomplex,soit’s

notuseful.Oursituationisuniqueso yourmodeldoesn’tapply.

Mystic

Itcanpredictthefuture.IfIcanjustgeteverything

intothemodel,thenitwillbeperfect.

Realist

Iusemodelsallthetimetomakedecisions,they’rejustimplicitandusuallyuntested.

Icanuseamodeltomakemyassumptionsexplicit,sharethem,improvethem,andtestthem.

Itwillimproveourabilitytorigorouslydiscusstheissues!

Allmodelsarewrong,someareuseful!—Box&DemingAll models are wrong. Some are useful!

–George Box & Ed Deming


Why have we observed this behavior?

Health Expenditures as % of GDP


• Make assumptions explicit and testable

• Answer a more fundamental question:

• Can we get there from here?

• Then can go into how

• Identify potential unintended consequences

• Propose systemic orchestration

System Dynamics(and simulation) helps


Childhood Obesity Learning Lab


The inevitable result of it’s all connected

http://minstrelboy.blogspot.com/2009/12/military-plan-for-afghan-war-surge-in.html

http://www.closetcooking.com/2007/07/spaghetti-alla-carbonara-with-twist.html

Example courtesy of Steve Peterson, The Peterson Group


To build useful understanding...adopt the mindsets of some pretty smart people

Other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one

- William of Occam, Occam’s Razor

A model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler

- Albert Einstein

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.

- Albert Einstein

Allmodelsarewrong,someareuseful

-GeorgeBox&EdDeming


A designer knows he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing

left to take away.

–Antoine de Saint-Exupery


http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/antoinedes121910.html

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/antoinedes121910.html

…and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly!

Representing “the system”1. Low Road

My advice: Take the High Road!

2. G

et u

p ou

t of t

he w

eeds…

Breadth (Time/Space) (extensive boundary)

Depth (intensive boundary)

ShallowHighly

Aggregated

DeepHighly

Disaggregated

NarrowlyFocused

BroadlyFocused

Many mental models

are here

Good “systems” models are here

How to frame and builduseful “systems” models


This series focuses on the “sweet spot” by teaching you how to apply…


QUESTIONS




Make Useful Sense ?




• Contributing to a meeting

• Coaching a colleague

• Evaluating an idea

• Editing reports

• Enhancing formal evaluation

(Sample) QUESTIONS

Expand Temporal View

What are the most significant or troublesome trends (patterns of important system performance measures)? They can be tangible or intangible, quantitative or qualitative.

What’s been the trend for each over the past several years?

Expand Spatial View

What other perspectives / stakeholders are concerned about this issue or something related to it?

What other trends or system behaviors would they see as related – perhaps even more important – to the issue?

Stocks & Flows

If you could stop time for a magical moment and looked at the system – counting or measuring something – what would you focus on to assess system health?

What’s accumulating? What are the key conditions?

Feedback Loops

Is there an obvious virtuous or vicious cycle (Reinforcing loops?)

Is there a “push back” in the system or does it try to stay in equilibrium? (Balancing loops?)

Build a Useful PictureDo we have the same picture of this issue, strategy?

What do we need to develop that same page understanding?

Build Confidence How do (are) we build(ing) confidence in the theory?

Make Useful Sense

How do we keep the mental model (explanatory theory) as simple as possible, but no simpler?

Are there elements of the theory that are true, but not necessarily a major factor in explaining the issue or potential solutions? Can you remove?

Systems THINKING QuestionsA quick and easy way to leverage the power of systems THINKING


• Look at each row

• Pick 1-2 questions

• Discuss / Answer them

• Move to next row

• If you have time, go back to rows you think might lend more insight

• Ask me for help if you need it

QUESTIONS

Expand Temporal

View

What are the most significant or troublesome trends (patterns of important system performance measures)? They can be tangible or intangible, quantitative or qualitative. What’s been the trend for each over the past several years? How broad a time horizon is useful in order to really understand each? (1 year, 5 years, 10 years, decades?) Where are they going? What will be the future price we pay if left to continue as expected? How do we want the future to play out? What’s our desired trend – dynamic vision? How far into the future do we need to look to see the change we want?

Expand Spatial View

What other perspectives / stakeholders are concerned about this issue or something related to it? What other trends or system behaviors would they see as related – perhaps even more important – to the issue? How does this impact more than just the area of interest? Think about expanding the area of focus. If we make a change to the issue as you wish, where else will there be an impact? Would this (these) be a positive or negative unintended consequence(s) / impact(s)?

Stocks & Flows

If you could stop time for a magical moment and looked at the system – counting or measuring something – what would you focus on to assess system health? What’s accumulating? What are the key conditions? In what direction are the important accumulations going? What is the rate of change of these accumulations or conditions?

Feedback Loops

Is there an obvious virtuous cycle (where things continue to get better or better)? Or perhaps is there a vicious cycle (where things continue to get worse, and are maybe accelerating!)? (both of these first two are Reinforcing loops?) Is there a “push back” in the system? Does it appear to be trying to stay in equilibrium? (both of these two are Balancing loops?) Can we influence feedback loops to achieve leverage?

Build a Useful Picture

Do we have the same picture of this issue, strategy? What do we need to develop that same page understanding? Is our understanding clear and unambiguous? What’s needed to make it more so? Is it rigorous? What’s needed to make it more so?

Build Confidence

How do (are) we build(ing) confidence in the theory? Are we able to mentally simulate? Would we understand more by developing Stock and Flow Maps and Simulations and simulations? Could we computer simulate and would that add enough value to warrant the effort?

Make Useful Sense

How do we keep the mental model (explanatory theory) as simple as possible, but no simpler? Are there elements of the theory that are true, but not necessarily a major factor in explaining the issue or potential solutions? Can you remove?


Systems THINKING Review

• Provides a mindset, a set of questions, and tools to help you develop a shared picture of the system you are trying to influence

There are many ways to apply the syststems thinking framework


Chris Soderquist Pontifex Consulting

PO Box 64Hanover, NH 03755

(603) 276-0203

[email protected]

Systems Thinking Resources

An Introduction to Systems Thinking with iThink Author: Barry Richmond Publisher: isee systems

Thinking in Systems: A Primer Author: Donella Meadows Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing Company (2008)

Finding Leverage Chris Soderquist Producer: Banyan Communications Sponsor: The National Association of Chronic Disease Directors

https://vimeo.com/122034667

There are additional videos and articles on my resources page


mailto:[email protected]

http://findinghighleverage.com

http://www.apple.com



finding leverage with system dynamics

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