financial overview - elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 ltm 31% 54% 14% elisa telia tele2 strong...

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Financial overview Jari Kinnunen CFO

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Page 1: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Financial overview

Jari Kinnunen

CFO

Page 2: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

1 Performance update

2 Profit and growth generation

3 Capital allocation

4 CFO priorities

Elisa’s unique strategy generates

profit and growth

Page 3: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Strong track record of high growth…

3

2016 – LTM1) CAGR

Performance update

Revenue

EBITDA

EBIT

EPS

1) Last twelve months, comparable figures

6.7%

7.0%

7.9%

9.3%

Page 4: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

…industry-leading performance…

4

-9%

-5%

-5%

-1%

-1%

-1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

7%

KPN

Telenor

Tele2

BT

Telia

Proximus

Swisscom

Telecom Italia

Telekom Austria

DNA

Elisa 63%

61%

53%

52%

52%

46%

45%

45%

42%

42%

39%

Elisa

Telenor

KPN

Tele2

BT

Telekom Austria

Telecom Italia

DNA

Swisscom

Telia

Proximus

Revenue growth CAGR

2016 – LTM

Operating cash flow conversion LTM

27%

11%

10%

10%

10%

9%

9%

9%

7%

6%

6%

Elisa

Swisscom

Telecom Austria

KPN

Proximus

TI

Telefonica

BT

Orange

DT

Vodafone

ROCE 2018 estimate

Performance update

Source: Bloomberg1) Peer group average

Average1) -1% Average1) 8%Average1) 48%

Source: Citi Research 2018 estimateSource: Bloomberg

(EBITDA - CAPEX) / EBITDA

Page 5: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 LTM

Revenue growth Peers

Target areaTarget area

Target area

Target area

Target area

…and long-term track record in medium-term financial targetsPerformance update

5

0%

5%

10%

15%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM

Revenue growth above industry1) average EBITDA margin

CAPEX-to-sales ratio ≤12%

1,0

1,5

2,0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q1820%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18

Capital structureNet debt / EBITDA 1.5-2× Equity ratio >35%

Net debt / EBITDA Equity ratio

EBITDA %

CAPEX-to-sales

1) European telecom operators2) Special guidance due to acquisitions

2)2)

In target Below target

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM

Page 6: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Share of revenue

LTM

Organic

CAGR 2016 – LTM

Mobile service revenue 44% 4%

Interconnection & roaming 4% -2%

Equipment sales 12% 10%

Mobile revenue 60% 4%

Fixed revenue 24% -5%

Domestic digital services 13% 8%

International digital services 2% 15%

Other digital services 1% -24%

Digital services total 16% 6%

Total revenue 100% 2%

Profit and growth generation

¾ of revenue in growing digital and mobile services

6

Page 7: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

99 144 167

2016 2017 LTM

31%

54%

14%

Elisa

Telia

Tele2

Strong performance in Estonian businessProfit and growth generation

Solid revenue growth continues… Total revenue market shares in Estonia1)

…with improving EBITDA

32 46 54

2016 2017 LTM

Elisa revenue split €167m LTM

80%

20%

Consumers

Corporate

50 51 54

151 158 167

Reported

CAGR 6.0%

CAGR 34.9%

CAGR 4.3%

CAGR 34.6%

Pro Forma

Reported

Pro Forma

1) Reported total revenues in Estonia for Elisa, Telia and Tele2, €533m LTM

7

Page 8: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Increase mobile and fixed service revenues

Grow digital service businesses

Improve efficiency and quality

Drivers to achieve medium-term EBITDA margin target Profit and growth generation

8

LTM 35% By end of 2021 >37%

8

• Upselling to higher speeds and monetising 5G

• Add-on services

• Product changes

• Growth in domestic and international markets

• Improved portfolio management

• Systematic continuous productivity improvement

• Digitalisation, RPA, machine learning, AI

• Cost synergies in acquired companies

Page 9: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Mobile data usage LTM CAGR: 39%3)

• FTTx household coverage: 72%

• Mobile network peak hour utilisation: 27%

• 5G-ready connections to 4G base stations: 86%

• High network density,

macro cell sites 3× international average

Disciplined 12% CAPEX-to-sales policy continues…Capital allocation

9

CAPEX vs. peers1) CAPEX allocated efficiently

2017 CAPEX in Finland2) , EURm

1) Peer group: BT, DNA, KPN, Proximus, Swisscom; Tele2, Telecom Italia, Telekom Austria; Telenor, Telia2) Company reports, reported revenue and CAPEX (Telia w/o rights for the ice hockey league) in Finland 3) Elisa´s network in Finland

211 203

13313%

14%15%

Elisa Telia DNA

CAPEX CAPEX-to-sales

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2016 2017 LTM

Peers

Elisa

Page 10: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Renewal of 900 MHz, 1,800 MHZ and 2,100 MHz in 2019– Beauty contest renewal until end of 2033

• 3.5 GHz licence granted for 15 years - 5G network rollout starts in the beginning of 2019– Elisa’s licence price EUR 26m, payable in 5 years

• Elisa acquired an additional 50 MHz of 2,600 MHz spectrum– Licence valid until end of 2029, 2,600 MHz frequencies to be used for 4G and 5G services

Capital allocation

…excellent frequency position in Finland, all main frequencies secured until the end of 2033

10

Elisa has biggest amount of spectrum in Finland

Telia

DNA

700 MHz 800 MHz 900 MHz 1,800 MHz 2,100 MHz 2,600 MHz 3.5 GHz

381.6 MHz

331.6 MHz

322.4 MHz

20

20

20

20

20

20

22.8

22.8

23.2

49.6

49.6

49.6

39.6

39.6

39.6

100

50

40

130

130

130

Page 11: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Focus areas

• Domestic telecom services

• Domestic IT services

• International digital services

Value-creating acquisition criteria

• Supports strategy

• Financially accretive

• Distribution intact or improved

• Solid capital structure and

balance sheet

Company Year Acquisition price, €m Valuation EV/EBITDA

Santa Monica 2017 32 8.2

Starman 2017 151 8.8

Anvia 2016 107 7.2

PPO 2012 145 7.5

Other 5

Total/median 440 8.0

Value-driving M&A continues…Capital allocation

11

M&A activities 2012–2017

Financial development in 2012–2017

• EPS, EUR 1.35 1.86 +38%

• Dividend, EUR 1.30 1.65 +27%

• Net debt / EBITDA 1.7–2.1×

Page 12: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Medium-term target reiterated

– Net debt / EBITDA 1.5–2×

– Equity ratio >35%

• Average interest rate 1.7%

– Fixed/variable 80/20%180

300 300

50150

130

170

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Bonds Bank loans Undrawn RCF´s

…as well as solid capital structure and efficient funding Capital allocation

12

Diversified maturity profile 30 Sep 2018, EURm

Return ratios1)

Cash, net debt and interest rate

28%30% 30%

17% 18% 18%

2016 2017 LTM

ROE

ROI

Elisa

Swisscom

Proximus

DNATele2

TelenorBT

Telekom Austria

Telia

Telecom Italia

KPN

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1,75% 2,25% 2,75% 3,25% 3,75% 4,25% 4,75%

1) Source: Bloomberg, At the end of quarter2) Source: Bloomberg, FY2017 (Total Interest Incurred / average short and long term debt ) * 100

1) Comparable figures

Effective interest rate2)

Cash / net debt 30 Sep 20181)

Page 13: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

360373

401

2016 2017 LTM

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2016 2017 LTM

Elisa Peers

Strong cash flow growth…Capital allocation

13

Operating cash flow margin1)Operating cash flow, EURm

CAGR +6.3%

1) (EBITDA–CAPEX) / sales

Peer group: BT, DNA, KPN, Proximus, Swisscom; Tele2, Telecom Italia, Telekom Austria; Telenor, Telia

Source: Bloomberg

Page 14: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Focused business model

• Continuous earnings improvement

• Industry’s lowest CAPEX-to-sales

• Disciplined M&A policy

• Low effective tax rate

• Low interest expenses

13%

14%

26%

31%

32%

35%

36%

37%

41%

44%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

BT

Orange

Proximus

Telefonica

Swisscom

KPN

Telenor

Vodafone

DNA

Telia

Elisa

…and high cash flow conversion…Capital allocation

14

Industry’s best equity-free cash flow conversion

Source: JP Morgan 2018 estimate

EFCF / EBITDA

Average 30%

Page 15: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Commitment to high profit distribution

– Policy: payout ratio 80–100%

• LTM EPS EUR 1.94, 7.2% YoY growth

• Consensus estimates lead to under-leveraging

…lead to reliable growing dividendCapital allocation

15

Distribution policy reiterated Dividend history

Consensus estimates Dividend / sales

Source: Bloomberg

1.7

1.5

1.4

1,31,75

1,84

1,962,01

2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

1,30 1,32 1,40 1,50 1,65

104%94% 91% 93% 89%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net debt/

EBITDA

Dividend

Payout

ratio

CAGR 6.1%

Dividend

{Target 1.5 -2×

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Elisa

BT

Deutsche Telekom

KPN

Telefonica

Telecom Italia

Orange

Telia

Telenor

Proximus

Swisscom

Vodafone

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. See appendix for disclaimer.

Page 16: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Mainly office premises, network-related real

estate and cars

• Debt and fixed assets to increase

by approx. EUR 60m

• EBITDA to improve by approx. EUR 13m

– Increase in depreciation EUR 12m

– Increase in interest EUR 1m

• EBITDA margin up by approx. 0.7%

• Net debt / EBITDA +0.06×

• CAPEX target excluding IFRS 16 change

Revenue

Other operating income

Materials and services -13

Employee expenses

Other operating expenses

EBITDA 13

Depreciation, amortisation and impairment 12

EBIT 1

Financial income

Financial expenses 1

Share of associated companies’ profit

Profit before tax 0

IFRS 16 effects 2019 onwards – no effect on cash flow

16

P&L effects

Page 17: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

• Improve operational leverage

• CAPEX efficiency

• Disciplined M&A

• Growth and profitability improvement

• Productivity improvements

• Efficient capital structure

Elisa’s unique strategy generates profit and growth

17

Profit and growth generationElisa’s strategy

CFO priorities

Improve efficiency and quality

Grow digital service businesses

Increase mobile and fixed service

revenues

Page 18: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth
Page 19: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Statements made in this document relating to the future, including future

performance and other trend projections, are forward-looking statements.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because

they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future.

There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those

expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, due to many factors,

many of which are outside of Elisa’s control.

Page 20: Financial overview - Elisa · 2018-11-27 · 2016 2017 LTM 31% 54% 14% Elisa Telia Tele2 Strong performance in Estonian business Profit and growth generation Solid revenue growth

Disclaimer

Slide 17: Dividend/sales

Reprinted by permission. Copyright © 2018 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated. The use of the above in no way implies that Merrill Lynch endorses the views or interpretation or the use of

such information or acts as any endorsement of [the licensee’s] use of such information. The information is provided "as is" and Merrill Lynch does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the

information.

Appendix