christian luiga - telia company - telia company...q1 20. q1 20 (excl. tv/media) yoy growth* yoy...
TRANSCRIPT
Q1CHRISTIAN LUIGA president & CEO
Interim REPORT JANUARY – March 2020
-1.0%-0.2%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q1 20(excl.
TV/media)
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN OUR TELCO BUSINESSES
SERVICE REVENUEs Improved
Dividend and leverageAdjusted EBITDA impacted by tv and media
* Like for like2
-5.1%-1.4%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q1 20(excl.
TV/Media)
YoY growth*
YoY growth*
SEK3.3Bn
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW q1 2020
(SEK 4.4 billion Q1 2019)
DividendSEK 1.80/share
(SEK 7.4 billion)
Leverage
2.62x(2.71x Q4 2019)
Covid-19 impacts and implications
3
• Additional impact on the advertising market sentiment –difficult to isolate
• Cancelled sport events affect TV distribution and cost
• Limited impact on the telco business so far
• Networks holding up well despite high usage
• No significant supply chain issues so far
• Plans in place to ensure business continuity
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
COVID Impact on q1 2020 – largely tv relatedAdjusted EBITDA, SEK million
Potential OPPORTUNITIES/ risks ahead
FURTHER HIGH DEMAND FOR SUPPORT TO B2B AND SOCIETY
ROAMING impacted by travel restrictions
CANCELLED SPORT EVENTS WILL IMPACT TV DISTRIBUTION
CUSTOMER FINANCIAL STABILITY MAY DEGRADE
B2C AND B2B SEGMENT MAY SEE IMPACT FROM INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT
TELCOS KEY ROLE IN DIGITALIZATION OF SOCIETY TO BECOME EVEN MORE VISIBLE
• Activation of identified mitigating actions if needed
Liiga write-down and pay-TV
impact on TV & Media unit and within countries
Supporting our stakeholders DURING THIS TIME
4
• Telia Crowd Insights tool used by authorities thought our footprint to fight COVID-19
• Risk management teams in place
• Keeps customers connected
• Enabling digital ways of working and home schooling
• Securing vital access to information and entertainment
Keep distance but keep contact
Data in fixednetworks
Data in mobilenetworks
Voice inmobile
networks
• Managing network usage increase
• On top of this handling 25% increased traffic for Telia Carrier
SUPPORTING AUTHORITIES SUPPORTING CUSTOMERS & SOCIETY
PROOF POINT OF BEST NETWORKSIncrease in traffic
Internal measurements taken
30-50%
10-20%
20-70%
Staff wellbeing
Security Supplychain
Networks & TV
MOBILE REVENUES SHOW POSITIVE GROWTH
5
mobile service revenue growthLike for like growth
0.9%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
SWEDEN
+1.2%FINLAND
+3.9%
NORWAY
+3.5%
• Sweden supported by additional migration and B2B
• Strong B2B development in Norway
• Between 4-7 percent growth in the Baltics
• ARPU growth in 5 of 6 markets
• Overall the result from price initiatives and good work on upsell
LIT+5.3%
EST+2.8%
DEN-0.9%
MoBile arpu GrowthIn local currency, pre and postpaid, y-o-y
GOOD MOMENTUM IN FIXED BROADBAND
6
Fixed broadband service revenue growthLike for like growth
3.3%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
• Sweden and Norway main drivers behind solid development
• Sweden: ARPU uplift and fiber intake
• Norway: Good subscription development
• OCN* penetration Q1 increased by 60,000 y-o-y, 40 percent up
• New co-operation in Finland to speed up SDU fiber roll-out
* Open city networks
KEEPING THE FRONTRUNNER POSTION WITHIN FIXEDLike for like growth
Ebitda growth in traditional telco
7
EBITDA bridge q1 2020 - GroupSEK billion, like for like, adjusted EBITDA
• Run-rate into 2020 lower as communicated
• COVID-19 impacting an already slightly weaker advertising market
EBITDA bridge Q1 2020 - TV and MediaSEK billion, like for like, adjusted EBITDA
0.3
Market and COVID-19
Q1 2019
-0.2
-0.1
Run-rate into 2020
Q1 2020
0.0
• The traditional telco business grew EBITDA by 1.7 percent
-0.2
Q1 19
0.1
Telco business
Q1 20 (ex. TV
& Media)
Items affecting
comparability
-0.3
Q1 20TV & Media
7.3
-1.4% -5.1%
Pension refund,Liiga write-down
and sold receivables
TV & MEDIA – AN EVEN STRONGER TOTAL TV POSITION
Linear csov – TV4 and mtvCommercial Share of Viewing, ages 15-64
Digital csov – tv4Commercial share of viewing, ages 3+
8
+ =INCREASED total tv
MARKET SHARE DESPITE A LARGE DISTRIBUTOR
DECIDING NOT TO OFFER PART OF OUR CONTENT
TO ITS CUSTOMERS
Market position
Source: MMS, Finnpanel Source: MMS
1.8 million total viewers including record high digital
consumption
46.3 46.238.7 40.1
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
-0.1 +1.5
64.1 68.3
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
+4.2
good B2C mobile & broadband revenue growth
9
Mobile subscription revenue growth - B2CIn local currency, external service revenues
Fixed broadband revenue growth – b2cIn local currency, external service revenues
• Continued B2C ARPU growth
• Subscription fees supported by migrations
5.3%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
• Added 3,000 B2C subs. net Q1 2020 (26,000 in fiber)
• Fiber price increase in Q2 2019 pushed revenue growth into positive territory
• XDSL price increase Q4 2019 amplified growth
3.0%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
OUTLOOK FOR 2020 (updated)
SEK 9.5-10.5 BILLION (PREVIOUSLY: SEK 10.5-11.5 BILLION)O P E R A T I O N A L F C F *
NO GUIDANCE DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY (PREVIOUSLY: TO GROW 2-5 PERCENT)A D J U S T E D E B I T D A *
10* Based on the Group structure at year-end 2019 (i.e. including the segment TV and Media established in December 2019) and adjusted EBITDA in stable FX
Douglas lubbecfo
Interim REPORT JANUARY – March 2020
Q1
REVENUES AND EBITDA DECLINED DUE TO TV AND MEDIA
• Growth in Sweden due to mobile and broadband
• Fixed telephony continued down in Finland
• Mobile growth in Norway offset by decline in TV
• TV and Media fell from pressure on advertising
Q1 19
LIT LAT OtherESTDENNORFIN Q1 20
SWE Telia Carrier
TV & Media
-1.0%
LATESTQ1 19 SWE FIN NOR DEN LIT TV & Media
Other Q1 20
-5.1%
• Lower pension benefit impacted Sweden
• Norway and Finland impacted by one-off items
• Revenue pressure and higher costs in TV & Media
• Positive growth in the traditional telco business
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
EBITDA DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, excluding adjustment items
12
-0.9%
Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19* Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
GRADUALLY IMPROVING B2B TREND CONTINUES
13
B2B service revenue development – all marketsOrganic growth 2018 & like for like growth 2019/2020
• Sweden and Norway main drivers
• Dedicated work on the propositions yielding
• Continued good traction in ICT and IoT
• Sweden: Product launches, NPS improvement
• Norway: Good development within Public and SME
• Finland: ICT growth supported
* Q2 2019 positively impacted by one-off like revenues in Sweden
-1.2%(-1.5% FY19)
+2.3%(-2.5% FY19)
-0.4%(-0.7% FY19)
Q1 2020 Q1 2020 Q1 2020
COST AGENDA 2020 STILL IN FOCUS
OPEX developmentExternal expenses, like for like, including an estimated 2% cost inflation
3%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
• OPEX increased 3 percent largely due to:
• Less pension refund contribution in Sweden
• Overall increased need of staffing in customer care
• Higher credit losses in particularly Norway and Sweden
• IT and resource costs in TV and Media
• Adjusted for pension refund OPEX grew by ~2 percent
• Activities ahead
• Resources in all markets - both employees & consultants
• Marketing spend to be calibrated
• Common Products and Services to step up in H2
• The longer the pandemic lasts the execution risk increases
14
Improved revenue trend
• Stable trend in B2C and less drag from OTC Q1
• Sequential improvement in B2B driven by mobile
B2C
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTIn local currency, external service revenues
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
B2C excl. fiber OTC B2B B2C+1.2%
-1.2%
+0.7%
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth excl. IFRS 16 impact 2019
• Sweden slightly negative as revenue growth and cost measures were offset by mainly
• less pension benefit (SEK 100 million)
• higher resource costs in customer service
• Growth of 2.4% if adjusting for pension15
Pension refund and easy comparison
B2B 3%
-0.7%
6%2.4%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
LIIGA CANCELLATION AND FIXED TELEPHONY IMPACTED
3,273 3,302
1,169 1,156
Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 20Service revenues EBITDA
-1.4%
• Mobile subscription revenues grew while fixed telephony continued to burden
• SEK 40 million negative EBITDA impact from cancellation of the Liiga season
= Like for like growth
SERVICE REVENUES & ADJUSTED EBITDASEK million in reported currency & like for like growth
-3.3%
• Mobile subscriber revenue growth driven by ARPU
17
18
19
20
21
22
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
Subscriptions Postpaid ARPU
+4.5%
= ARPU growth y-o-y
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS AND postpaid ARPUTotal subscription base in 000’, postpaid ARPU in local currency
16
1,900
2,100
2,300
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
Subscriptions Postpaid ARPU
3,119 2,964
1,516 1,387
Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 20
FLAT MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION DEVELOPMENT
-4.3%
-0.7%
• Mobile revenues grew from solid B2B performance
• EBITDA Q1 2019 positively impacted by sale of impaired customer receivables
• SEK 35 million increase in credit losses in Q1 2020
• Postpaid ARPU grew slightly
• OneCall continues to show subscriber growth
• Growth in B2B revenues from strong mobile
SERVICE REVENUES & ADJUSTED EBITDASEK million in reported currency & like for like growth
Mobile subscriptionsTotal subscriptions & postpaid ARPU in local currency
= Like for like growth
Service revenues EBITDA
17
+1.3%NOK 275
NOK 300
= ARPU growth y-o-y
345 373
272 290219 231
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
Estonia Lithuania Denmark
Q1 19 Q1 20Estonia
Q1 19 Q1 20Denmark
+4.1%
Q1 19 Q1 20Lithuania
Strong performance in led
+5.6%
+3.0%
-1.6%
+6.0%
+7.3%
• Solid performance for both mobile and fixed revenues in Lithuania and Estonia
• Denmark improved as mobile growth turned neutral
• Growing revenues supported EBITDA in the Baltics
• Better on revenues and another great quarter on costs in Denmark
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENTSEK million in reported currency & like for like growth
= Like for like growth18
TV & MEDIA – TEMPORARY SPORTS CHALLENGE
• All sport packages priced in line with base package
• Price changes also impacts all other markets
• All time high consumption on recently launched series
Reduced prices from cancelled sportsIn SEK and EUR
• Q4 supported by 60,000 free subscriptions added during December conflict – of which half have continued as paying customers in Q1
• Subscriber base maintained despite sport cancellation due to strong overall content portfolio
Stable subscription base despite challengesSVOD subscriptions in ’000
0
200
400
600
800
Q4 2019 Q1 2020
449:- 349:-
199:- 139:-139:-
€ 29.95 € 24.95
€ 12.95€ 12.95
Original price Temporary price
19
Cash flow from ebitda less capex is growing
02468
101214
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW developmentSEK billion, rolling twelve months
SEK 11.5 billion
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW Q1SEK billion
Tax
-0.2
Q1 2019
0.3
EBITDA less
leasing*
-0.3
WC
-0.4-0.5
Other Q1 2020
4.4
3.3
CAPEX ex.
licenses
-1.1
• EBITDA less CAPEX grew by 3 percent
• Still positive on WC although slightly less than LY
• Tax negative due to tax refund LY
• Less support from pension refund vs. LY* Repayment of lease liabilities20
net debt and leverage decreased
• Net debt decreased driven by operations and EUR 0.5 billion green hybrid bond issuance
• Buy-backs finalized (in total 6% of shares bought back)
• FX movements increased leverage
• First dividend tranche of SEK 3.7 billion in April
• Bonnier Broadcasting earn-out of maximum SEK 0.8 billion
• The remaining 50% (SEK 0.2 billion) in dividend from Turkcell Holding
3.01.0
1.5
Green hybrid
CashCAPEX
Buy-backs
88.1
Q4 19
-7.2
Operations
-2.6
FX & other
83.7
Q1 20
2.71x
2.62x
= Leverage ratio (multiple, rolling 12 months including a full 12 months of Bonnier Broadcasting)
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENTContinuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion and leverage ratio
21
Capital structure in focus
22
Rating confirmed by Moody’s
EUR 0.5 billion green bond issued
Liquidity FURTHER SUPPORTED by a new credit facility of SEK 4 billion
Lowered Dividend
“committed to keep long-
term solid investment
grade”
Q&A
DISCLAIMER & FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document contains the use of alternative performance measures (APM’s) to provide readers with additional financial information that is regularly reviewed by management, such as adjusted EBITDA, CAPEX and operational free cash flow. These APM’s should not be viewed as a substitute for Telia Company’s IFRS based figures, but as a complement. APM definitions can be found in Telia Company’s interims reports and Annual and Sustainability Report 2019 and may be defined differently by other companies and are therefore not alwayscomparable to similar measures used by other companies. Telia Company’s management considers these APM’s combined with IFRS performance measures and in conjunction with each other, the most appropriate way to measure the performance of Telia Company.
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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