fb ecoystem 051112
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TRANSCRIPT
DeMatteo Monness Event – Facebook’s Q1Lou Kerner Presentation, May 11 2012
Emergence of The Social Internet
Facebook’s Slowing Revenue Growth
Mobile MAUs Outpacing DAU Growth
Facebook S-1 Statement
“ We had 488 million MAUs who used Facebook through mobile products in March 2012… We have historically not shown ads to users accessing Facebook through mobile apps or our mobile website. In March 2012 we begun to include sponsored stories… we do not generate any meaningful revenue from the use of Facebook mobile products….”
EdgeRank Is Facebook’s PageRank
Driving Engagement/Value on FB
Reach Generator Will Be Big
Mobile Means Mobile Apps
Facebook Lags In App Adoption
Source: comScore, May 2012
Is Facebook’s HTML5 Mobile Strategy Flawed?
“… web and HTML5 centric applications are simply not ready for prime-time…your nearly 1B person user base deserves better… incredibly slow loading and latency ridden mobile experience”
- Alan Knitowski, CEO of Phunware
The Zuckerberg Factor
• Zuckerberg is a visionary– He is on a quest for ubiquity– He is willing to forego short term revenue for
enhanced user engagement ...even if that user engagement is not immediately monetizable
– Any questions regarding his ability to lead the company are beyond absurd. Reminiscent of people who thought that Jobs wasn’t the right person to run Apple.
Introducing The FB APP Center
Forecasting Facebook
• What we know/believe– Slowdown in first quarter revenue growth due
(at least) in part to mobile– The history of media is that ad revenue
migrates to where people migrate, and they overspend to achieve scale
• What we can’t model – Facebook has basically an unlimited
opportunity to create new revenue streams from AppCenter, to Search, to Offers, to Ad Network, to PayPal…..
Facebook Forecast
Facebook Valuation
Facebook Risks
• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Facebook
log ins on Android devices by 2015• Government intervention around the world
due to privacy and/or monopoly concerns• Need for additional, larger acquisitions• Nothing is constant but change –
Disruptive mobile technology
Where Will Facebook Trade?• Facebook will be offered at the high end
of, or above, the $28-$35 range• While the press is reporting on Wall
street’s ebbing interest, Facebook is emerging as a bellwether for growth that must be owned
• The world’s never seen a stock with as much global retail interest.
• The shares will trade well north of its offering price
