farming unicorns in emerging markets (dubai, oct 2016) #gitex
TRANSCRIPT
@DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co
#Gitex Dubai - Oct 2016
Farming Unicorns in Emerging Markets Building Startup & Investor Ecosystems in MENA
Dave McClureFounding Partner, 500 Startups
00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly
80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
• What is 500? – $275M global seed fund + startup accelerator – 140 people / 25 languages / 20 countries – 1700+ Companies / 3500+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Investment, Accelerator, Growth Marketing, Events, Education – Community + Content + Conferences
• 1700+ Co’s / 60+ Countries – Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) – Credit Karma – Grab (aka GrabTaxi) – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Behance (acq Adobe, $150M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – Udemy – Ipsy – TalkDesk – Intercom
500 Startups Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
500 Falcons Team
Rakan Al Eidi (ررااكانن االعيیدديي)VENTURE PARTNER, 500 Falcons
Hasan Haider (حسنن حيیددرر)GENERAL PARTNER, 500 Falcons
Sharif El Badawi (شرريیفف االبددوويي)VENTURE PARTNER, 500 Falcons
Dinosaurs vs. CockroachesLEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
1996 ”Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup” • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl
2016 ”Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup” • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility
Data from ~600 companies from 500 Startups Funds I + II (2010 - 2013 cohorts)
$1-10M
Q: How Many Startups to Get 1 Unicorn? Unicorns 50:1 | Centaurs 20:1
99 VC Problems But a Batch Ain’t 1
9http://bit.ly/99VCProblems
Perils of Becoming a Unicorn (Before/After IPO)
2009 2016
Jeff Lawson, Founder/CEO Twilio (NYSE:TWLO)
Investor Ecosystem Funding, Liquidity, Exits
• Bootstrap, FFF, Crowdfunding (0-$100K) • Angel Investors (0-$100K) • Accelerators (0-$100K) • Seed funds ($100K-$1M) • Series A/B ($2-10M) • Later Stage Funds ($20M+) • M&A / Secondary Markets • IPOs
Q: How many VC funds do we need to build an ecosystem?
• USA: ~800 VC funds; 2.5 per 1M ppl • China: ~700 VC funds; 0.5 per 1M ppl
• MENA: ~30 funds; 0.1 per 1M ppl
NOT EVEN CLOSE!
A Brief History of US Venture Capital
• first VC funds: ARDC, JH Whitney (1946) • SBICs / Small Business Investment Act (US, 1958) • Shockley -> “Traitorous Eight” -> Fairchild (1958) -> Intel (1968) • Sutter Hill (1964), Venrock (1969), Kleiner, Sequoia (1972)
• ERISA laws + “prudent man rule” (1974, 1978) • Pension Funds in VCs: $39M (1977) -> $570M (1978) -> $4B (1989) • Tech Explosion: 80’s, 90’s, 00’s • Microsoft (1975), Apple (1976), Oracle (1977), Sun (1982), Cisco
(1984), Amazon (1994), eBay (1995), Yahoo (1995), Google (1998), PayPal (1998), LinkedIn (2002), Facebook (2004), Twitter (2006)
A) Invite VCs to Dinner? B) Give VCs some Arabic Coffee?
Q: How to Bring 500 VC Funds to Emerging Markets?
A) Invite VCs to Dinner? B) Give VCs some Arabic Coffee? C) Take VCs for a Ride on a Camel?
Q: How to Bring 500 VC Funds to Emerging Markets?
Umm, NO.
A) Invite VCs to Dinner? B) Give VCs some Arabic Coffee? C) Take VCs for a Ride on a Camel?
… or… D) Invest in VCs!*
Q: How to Bring 500 VC Funds to Emerging Markets?
Umm, NO.
Startup Risk Reduction
ConceptEarly
Customer Usage
Scalable Customer
Acquisition
[about to be] Profitable
Unit Economics
Scalable Profitable Business
Functional Prototype
PRODUCT
MARKET
REVENUE
Exit?
When 500 Likes to Invest
The Lean Investor
Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working
• Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1: Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors
• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2: Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds
• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3: Revenue Validation + Growth
• Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors
• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
The Unicorn “Hedge” https://500hats.com/welcome-to-the-unicorn-hedge-2fd3c6b50f89
Q: Which is more overvalued? — 100 Unicorn startups or Fortune 500? TREND: Non-tech public companies buying innovation (aka Unicorns) as a hedge against the value of their own stock.
Examples: Dollar Shave Club -> Unilever, Cruise -> GM, Jet.com -> Walmart.
Startups + Corporation = TEAM
31
Startups: • Speed • Talent (People) • Product / IP
Corporations: • Customers • Budget / Money
Corporate/Startup Innovation Framework
Partnerships
Investments
M&A
OutcomesStrategies
People Product Customers
Dealflow
Accelerators
PR & Sponsorships
Competitions & Events
Silicon Valley Outposts
Investing in VC funds
Corporate/Startup Innovation Framework
Partnerships
Investments
M&A
OutcomesStrategies
People Product Customers
Corporate/Startup Innovation Framework
Partnerships
Investments
M&A
OutcomesStrategies
People Product Customers
Dealflow
Accelerators
PR & Sponsorships
Competitions & Events
Silicon Valley Outposts
Investing in VC funds
Different Strategies, Rqmts Different Outcomes, Impact
Partner Invest Acquire
Effort Low Medium High
Cost Low Medium High
Impact Low Medium High
Critical Ecosystem Factors
• Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits)