fairmas hotel report march 2016...report fairmas . hotel report . edition march 2016 performance...

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Fairmas Hotel Report

Edition March 2016

Performance Analysis: February 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months

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The Fairmas team will be at the ITB.

Join us on Thursday, 10th March

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After that, from 4.30 pm a small reception will take place.

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Hotel Performance & Trends

03|16

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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG

Occ: 71%, ADR: €98, RevPar: €69February brought a large number of events to Berlin. The Car-nival week was better than expected with good room rates. The Bautec event was held this year (it takes place every two years). It generated the expected high room rates and strong occupancy figures. The same applied for the Krebskongress (Cancer Congress). The Cisco Congress also ensured that many hotels enjoyed a good turnover. The Fruit Logistica and Berlinale film festival took place at different times this year and city centre hotels benefited from this in particular. The Fruit Logistica also generated strong room rates in the neigh-bouring districts. Many kick-off events also helped ensure a strong February performance.

Occ: -5.9%; ADR: -1.8%; RevPar: -7.6%

It does seem that the Berlin hotel industry

will be unable to repeat last year‘s strong

march. In any case, Easter and the holidays, which are

not room rate drivers, are already well booked with

price-sensitive leisure business. On Easter Saturday, a

football international match at the Olympic stadium

could lead to room rate increases. The ITB (the only

major event) generates very strong room rates. Apart

from that, two congresses, which had been very good

for last year’s numbers will be missing this time around.

Occ: -0.1%; ADR: +5.5%; RevPar: +5.4%

While the public holidays and vacations

in March will still negatively affect perfor-

mance, the scheduling of the school holiday means

more business days in April. Following the school

holidays, the month will slowly gain in momentum. The

half-marathon will lead to the first increases in room

rates. Medical conventions are continuing to generate

strong demand and will lead to healthy room rates.

Overall, general corporate demand is promising – Ber-

lin hoteliers are looking forward to April with optimism.

Occ: -4.2%; ADR:-0.1%; RevPar: -4.3%

The fundamental conditions for May are

similar to last year’s. There will only be one

full business week. The “Re:publica” was very successful

last year, even though it was short. The Diabetes

Congress is taking place over the Ascension weekend,

which is always heavily booked in Berlin. The Whitsun

(Pentecost) weekend and Corpus Christi let one expect

good leisure sector business. The German Football Cup

Final will also bring high-price business. The forecasts

are perhaps too cautious.

03 04 05

February 2016 – Berlin continues with growth

Trend

+6,3% +5,5%

+12,1%

Occ ADR RevPar

© Fairmas 2016

Occ: + 8.9 % ADR: + 0.4 %

RevPar: + 9.4 %

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 0.9 %

RevPar: - 1.5 %

Occ: + 8.7 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 14.9 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: - 2.8 %

RevPar: + 1.9 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 3.4 %

RevPar: + 4.9 %

Occ: - 0.4 % ADR: + 2.3 %

RevPar: + 2.3 %

Occ: + 2.6 % ADR: - 6.5 %

RevPar: + 9.2 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: + 27.4 %

RevPar: + 33.8 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 6.2 %

RevPar: + 5.6 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.4 %

RevPar: + 8.9 %

Occ: + 0.8 % ADR: + 4.2 %

RevPar: + 5.1 %

Occ: + 6.3 % ADR: + 5.5 %

RevPar: + 12.1 %

Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16


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February 2016 – Further growth in Dusseldorf

Occ: 65%, ADR: €98, RevPar: €64 February in Dusseldorf was generally positive, mainly due to the healthy room rate development. This year, the ME-TAV trade fair took place (it is held every two years) parallel to the EuroCIS. It provided additional revenue and was the reason for the positive ADR forecast. Increased demand in the events sector supported this development. The leap year also provided the hotel industry with an extra day of poten-tial sales.

Occ: -11.6%; ADR: +0.4%; RevPar: -11.2%

March in Dusseldorf is set for a sharp

decline (RevPar: -11%). The “Prowein” and

“Beauty” events are being held every year but the IDS

trade fair in Cologne will be absent in 2016. Last year,

this generated significant overflow business for Dussel-

dorf. In addition, this year’s school Easter holidays will

be held in March only and will so take up one more

week of the month than had been the case in 2015.

Occ: +15.9%, ADR: +44.5%, RevPar: +67.5%

On the other hand, April is expected to be

positive. Hoteliers are predicting tremend-

ous growth with RevPar up by 68 percent. It remains to

be seen as to whether this will all happen. Anyway, the

three full business weeks (this year the Easter holidays

are almost completely in March) are ensuring a high

volume of demand. The main reason is the Wire &

Tube, which takes place every two years.

Occ: -2.2%, ADR: +27.6%, RevPar: +24.8%

May will continue to be marked by strong

growth, with RevPar up by 25%. The two

days of the DRUPA trade fair will boost room rates and

are the main reason for the increase. Otherwise, the

month is practically identical to May last year.

03 04 05

2,4%

3,8%

6,3%

Occ ADR RevPar

Trend© Fairmas 2016

Occ: + 8.1 % ADR: + 2.8 %

RevPar: + 11.1 %

Occ: - 12.7 % ADR: - 38.0 %

RevPar: - 45.9 %

Occ: - 4.5 % ADR: + 4.1 %

RevPar: - 0.6 %

Occ: - 2.5 % ADR: + 2.7 %

RevPar: + 0.3 %

Occ: + 3.5 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 9.3 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 6.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: + 0.2 % ADR: - 21.5 %

RevPar: - 21.5 %

Occ: + 8.2 % ADR: + 31.1 %

RevPar: + 41.9 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 6.8 %

RevPar: + 9.9 %

Occ: + 2.7 % ADR: + 15.2 %

RevPar: + 18.3 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: - 0.7 %

RevPar: - 2.0 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 6.3 %



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February 2016 – Losses in Frankfurt Occ: 70%, ADR: €123, RevPar: €86 There was little positive news in Frankfurt in February. For one thing, there was one day less of exhibition business from the Paperworld/Christmasworld trade show. In addition, Car-nival was held a week earlier. In 2015, the Ambiente trade fair coincided directly with the carnival season, which is otherwi-se marked by low-price business. This means that there was not much corporate or event trade in 2016.

Occ: -4.9%; ADR: +3.0%; RevPar: -2.1%

March in Frankfurt was marked by a 2% decli-

ne in RevPar. The “Light & Building” exhibition

will again be held this year; room rates are likely to be similar

to those for the 2015 ISH trade fair. However, there are only

two business weeks that can be sold for corporate and con-

ference business because this year, the Easter holidays begin

a week earlier than in 2015. Last year, in contrast, there were

three whole business weeks.

Occ: +6.9%, ADR: +11.2%, RevPar: +18.8%

Forecasts for April in Frankfurt are of very

positive developments in all three key figures.

April is a full business month, which will ensure significant

room rate increases. Hoteliers are expecting overall strong

demand in the meetings segment. In addition, MEX and the

“Musikmesse“ music trade fair will be held in April this year. In

recent years, the IMEX trade event has been held in May.

Occ: -0.4%, ADR: +3.3%, RevPar: +2.9%

May is still set on course for growth, with a

RevPar increase of 3% expected. The IFFA exhi-

bition is again being held this year (it takes place every two

years), which is the main reason for the increase in room ra-

tes. However, it remains to be seen whether the level of room

rates can be maintained over the long holiday weekends

because May features many public holidays. In addition, the

absence of IMEX will not help during the month.

03 04 05

-3,3%

1,7%

-1,7%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: + 3.0 % ADR: + 3.6 %

RevPar: + 6.7 %

Occ: - 5.3 % ADR: + 4.3 %

RevPar: - 1.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 5.3 %

Occ: + 3.9 % ADR: + 11.1 %

RevPar: + 15.5 %

Occ: + 0.0 % ADR: + 0.1 %

RevPar: + 0.0 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.6 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: + 4.8 % ADR: - 0.6 %

RevPar: + 4.4 %

Occ: + 13.5 % ADR: + 31.0 %

RevPar: + 48.9 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 6.9 %

Occ: - 0.1 % ADR: + 3.0 %

RevPar: + 3.1 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 3.3 %

RevPar: - 0.4 %

Occ: - 3.3 % ADR: + 1.7 %

RevPar: - 1.7 %



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February 2016 – Many events in HamburgOcc: 74%, ADR: €96, RevPar: €72 The hoteliers in Hamburg expected growth in February (RevPar: up 5%) and this was indeed the case. Hoteliers have registered strong demand in the MICE segment this year. The “Hanse Golf”, the “Hamburger Motorradtage” motorbike event, the “Online Marketing Rockstars Festival 2016” and some other events also generated increased demand. Hote-liers also registered additional turnover due to the leap year (February had 29 days in 2016).

Occ: -2.4%; ADR: +0.5%; RevPar: -1.9%

The trend for March in Hamburg is worse

than a year ago. The shift in the Easter

holidays to the last weekend in March (in 2015, Easter

was in early April) and a (so far) poor forecast for the

“Internorga” event mean that expectations are lower

than for 2015. RevPar is set to remain about two

percent below last year’s level. Overall, there are far

fewer days of events this March.

Occ: +1.0%, ADR: +4.8%, RevPar: +5.8%

The Hamburg hotel industry expects a far

better performance in April (RevPar: +6%).

The positive development in April is primarily because

the Easter school holidays are being held in March this

year. The “Aircraft” trade show is already the subject

of great interest and the strong demand is giving rise

to optimism. Besides this, a high preliminary booking

situation can already be seen in the MICE segment

this year.

Occ: -2.3%, ADR: +0.6%, RevPar: -1.7%

So far, May is looking negative (RevPar:

-2%). This is influenced by the many public

holidays in the month (in 2016, in addition to the

1 May, Ascension Day and Whitsun, Corpus Christi

is also in May (in 2015 it fell in June) and so only

calendar week 19 remains the sole full business week

in the whole of May. The room rate increase is mainly

influenced by the demand in the transient and tourist

segments.

03 04 05

1,1%

3,8%4,8%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: + 2.1 % ADR: + 4.6 %

RevPar: + 6.7 %

Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.0 %

RevPar: + 8.5 %

Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: - 9.5 %

RevPar: - 10.6 %

Occ: - 0.9 % ADR: + 2.1 %

RevPar: + 1.3 %

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 3.1 %

RevPar: + 0.9 %

Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 6.0 %

RevPar: + 6.2 %

Occ: + 1.9 % ADR: + 4.0 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: - 5.1 % ADR: + 0.4 %

RevPar: - 4.9 %

Occ: - 2.6 % ADR: + 2.5 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 3.2 %

Occ: + 1.1 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 4.8 %



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February 2016 – Cologne/Bonn drops in RevParOcc: 68%, ADR: €102, RevPar: €69Except for the few days of the ISM Cologne, demand in Feb-ruary in Cologne/Bonn left a lot to be desired. The Carnival period did promise good room rates but there were many cancellations due to the incidents on New Year‘s Eve. Occup-ancy during the Carnival season was thus relatively weak. The weather that had been forecast (storms) did the rest. The ISM confectionery trade fair ended smoothly in time for the Carnival. This means that no half week of business trade was lost, as happened last year. The “Didacta” took place from 16 to 20 January. This event rotates between Cologne, Stuttgart and Hanover.

Occ: -12.8%; ADR: -23.5%; RevPar: -33.3%

Last year, there were two strong trade fairs

in March – the IDS and Anuga. This year

there is only the Eisenwarenmesse (ironmongery fair),

for which demand is not as strong as for the other two

events, and room rates will not be anywhere near as

high. The Easter school holidays fall almost completely

within March. This will lead to difficulties in terms of de-

mand and room rates. Because of the fact that Easter

is early this year (with worse weather being expected),

the desire to travel will probably be more subdued.

Occ: -5.4%; ADR: +6.3%; RevPar: +12.3%

April is set to bring major increases in

performance. There are no public holidays

and no vacation. Things were very different last year.

This means there is likely to be much more corporate

and conference business in April. Demand is already

encouragingly strong. The FIBO event (7 to 10 April

2016), is especially important in April. It is growing

stronger from year to year. Demand for this trade

fair is already reassuringly strong and the room rate

structure promising.

Occ: -6.5%; ADR: -13.1%; RevPar: -18.7%

There is hardly any demand for May. The

large number of public holidays means

that the business weeks are completely cut to pieces.

Besides that, there are hardly significant events during

the month. Last year, the Interzum trade fair was very

significant for the performance in May. However, it will

be missing this year, just like the FESPA event. Only the

“Final4” and the “Drupa” events at the end of the month

provide a little reason to be optimistic. Nevertheless, it

is currently difficult to make any forecasts for these.

03 04 05

-2,7%

1,4%

-1,3%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 28.8 %

RevPar: + 37.4 %

Occ: - 3.0 % ADR: + 7.5 %

RevPar: + 4.2 %

Occ: - 0.3 % ADR: + 3.7 %

RevPar: + 3.4 %

Occ: - 3.7 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 10.4 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.8 %

RevPar: + 6.4 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 4.7 %

RevPar: + 7.5 %

Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 6.7 %

RevPar: + 13.9 %

Occ: + 10.7 % ADR: + 11.3 %

RevPar: + 23.3 %

Occ: + 4.3 % ADR: + 10.2 %

RevPar: + 15.0 %

Occ: + 8.5 % ADR: + 30.3 %

RevPar: + 41.3 %

Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 4.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: - 2.7 % ADR: + 1.4 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %



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February 2016 – Munich significantly below last yearOcc: 68%, ADR: €112, RevPar: €76February was very weak this year, without any major trade fairs or events. February 2015 was particularly affected by the ISPO trade fair, which was held place in January this year. Following the incidents in Paris, the increased fear of terrorism was also apparent in Germany. There were many cancellations, both in the corporate and the leisure sectors. The weather, which was hardly wintry, also cut the number of trips and short-stays on the way to the ski slopes. The in-creased competition on the Munich hotel market due to a number of new openings is not making life easier for hoteli-ers, either.

Occ: +1.7%; ADR: +13.0%; RevPar: +14.9%

On the other hand, March will be a strong

month. The EAU Congress and the FAF

fair trade, which takes place alternately in Cologne

and Munich every three years, will have a very positive

impact on occupancy and ADR. Besides this, there is

a football international and one Champions League

match. March 2015 had to make do without any events

at all. In addition, the Easter weekend falls in March.

Although this will not lead to high room rates, it will still

be positive for occupancy.

Occ: +13.7%; ADR: +75.8%; RevPar: +99.8%

April will bring dramatic gains. The public

holidays and the majority of the school

holidays are in March. There will consequently be more

business weeks for healthy corporate trade. However,

the “Bauma” will be the main reason for the huge

(almost 76%) increases. This event only takes place

every three years and is the world‘s largest trade fair

for construction machinery. It has a great impact on

Munich’s hotel industry.

Occ: -2.8%; ADR: +2.8%; RevPar: -0.1%

With its many public holidays, May is still

difficult to predict. However, major events

like the Analytica, the ECE Convention and two days of

IFAT at the end of the month are reasons to be hopeful.

The two weeks of Whitsun school holidays fall entirely

in May this year. The early Whitsun means that leisure-

sector trade will come very quickly and it will depend

on the weather above all. As a result, forecasts are still

very cautious.

03 04 05

-6,1% -5,8%

-11,4%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: + 4.0 % ADR: + 1.7 %

RevPar: + 5.7 %

Occ: - 3.2 % ADR: - 4.1 %

RevPar: - 7.2 %

Occ: + 0.9 % ADR: + 6.9 %

RevPar: + 7.8 %

Occ: - 2.1 % ADR: - 1.1 %

RevPar: - 3.1 %

Occ: - 1.0 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 7.9 %

Occ: - 6.4 % ADR: - 8.6 %

RevPar: - 14.3 %

Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: + 4.0 %

RevPar: + 2.9 %

Occ: + 4.6 % ADR: + 1.8 %

RevPar: + 6.5 %

Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 7.9 %

RevPar: + 8.0 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 3.0 %

Occ: - 5.2 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %

Occ: - 6.1 % ADR: - 5.8 %

RevPar: - 11.4 %


The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.

As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.

The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]

Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management Solutions Dot WG GmbH EMayl: [email protected]

Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

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© Fairmas 2016

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