edition may 2016 performance ... - fairmas hotel report · hotel performance & trends 05|16...

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Fairmas Hotel Report

Edition May 2016

Performance Analysis: April 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months

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Hotel Performance & Trends

05|16

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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG

Occ 80%, ADR €90, RevPar €72Public holidays and school vacations were still negatively af-fecting performance in March. On the other hand, the shift in the scheduling of the school holidays ensured more busi-ness day in April and thus more events and corporate busi-ness. The half-marathon led to the first room rate increases. The Unfallchirurgie (Trauma Surgery) Congress, which only takes place every two years, again ensured good demand and generated strong room rates. At the same time, leisure demand is very positive because (unlike many other Euro-pean cities) Berlin is considered a safe destination.

Occ: -1.0%; ADR: +1.4%; RevPar: +0.3%

Forecasts for May have improved slightly.

Conditions are similar to last year’s and

there will only be one full business week. Last year’s

“Re:publica” event was very well-attended, although

only at short notice. The Diabetes Congress took

place over the Ascension weekend, which is always

heavily booked in Berlin. The Whitsun weekend and

Corpus Christi mean that good leisure-sector business

could be expected. The German Football Cup Final

will also generate some high-price business, so the

forecasts are perhaps too cautious.

Occ: -1.5%; ADR: -13.5%; RevPar: -14.8%

June is predicted to be significantly worse

than in 2015 and Berlin hotels will be

unable to repeat last year’s outstanding results. The

Champions League final, which led to very high

increases in room rates, will be very noticeable by its

absence this year. Certainly, the ILA will ensure some

demand, as indeed will the Hauptstadtkongress (Capi-

tal City Congress). A large number of convention in-

quiries and some weekends marked by high demand

also offer a little hope. June will not be as good as last

year, but perhaps both the Panorama und Fashion

Week events will still ensure positive developments.

Occ: -1.7%; ADR: +2.0%; RevPar: +0.3%

July is expected to be slightly better than

last year. No major events, congresses

or trade shows are taking place in July. Because the

month falls within the school summer holidays, it has

traditionally been dominated by tourism. Most hotels

are expecting a similar level of demand to last year.

There will be no major changes in terms of ADR, either.

RevPar will remain roughly at last year’s levels.

05 06 07

April 2016 – Berlin above last year

Trend

4,5%

+7,7%

12,4%

Occ ADR RevPar

© Fairmas 2016

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 0.9 %

RevPar: - 1.5 %

Occ: + 8.7 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 14.9 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: - 2.8 %

RevPar: + 1.9 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 3.4 %

RevPar: + 4.9 %

Occ: - 0.4 % ADR: + 2.3 %

RevPar: + 2.3 %

Occ: - -1,6 % ADR: + 2.0 %

RevPar: + 0.3 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: + 27.4 %

RevPar: + 33.8 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 6.2 %

RevPar: + 5.6 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.4 %

RevPar: + 8.9 %

Occ: + 0.8 % ADR: + 4.2 %

RevPar: + 5.1 %

Occ: + 6.3 % ADR: + 5.5 %

RevPar: + 12.1 %

Occ: + 4,5 % ADR: + 7,7 %

RevPar: + 12.4 %

May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16


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April 2016 – Significant growth in DusseldorfOCC: 74%, ADR: €120, RevPar: €89April in Dusseldorf was extremely positive. RevPar was 66% higher than in 2015. The three full business weeks (this year, the Easter school holidays fell almost entirely in March) en-sured strong corporate and MICE demand. April is turning more and more into a strong business month. However, the main reason for the healthy development was the “wire & Tube” trade show, which is held every two years and which generates particularly strong demand and high room ra-tes. Here too, the good weather as well as a variety of other events in the city (the “Nacht der Museen”, the Metro Mara-thon, and the Dokomi trade show) were able to ensure good occupancy at the weekends.

Occ: -2.5%, ADR: +19%, RevPar: +16%

The two days of the DRUPA trade show

are the main reason for the growth in

RevPar. However, Dusseldorf’s hoteliers had been

expecting more. Pickup is very short-term but still

healthy. The Corpus Christi holiday is in May this year.

The good weather at the public holiday weekends

is leading to a great deal of leisure demand. Many

events in the city (the finals of the “DSDS” TV talent

show, as well as some concerts and the Japantag

“Japan Day” event) are generating additional business.

Occ: +20%, ADR: +57%, RevPar: +89%

June is looking extremely bright. The

main reason is the DRUPA trade fair,

even if the forecasts for this are comparatively disap-

pointing. Hoteliers are reporting fully booked hotels.

In addition, the three remaining business weeks are

very well booked and will generate good corporate

and MICE trade.

Occ: +7.2%, ADR: +5.5%, RevPar: +13%

The forecasts for July are very good. On

the one hand, there are similar events to

last year. However, the school summer holidays begin

one week later. This means that there is still time for

some very good corporate business at the beginning

of the month, reason enough for the hotel industry in

Dusseldorf to look forward to July with optimism.

05 06 07

22,4%

35,8%

66,3%

Occ ADR RevPar

Trend© Fairmas 2016

Occ: - 12.7 % ADR: - 38.0 %

RevPar: - 45.9 %

Occ: - 4.5 % ADR: + 4.1 %

RevPar: - 0.6 %

Occ: - 2.5 % ADR: + 2.7 %

RevPar: + 0.3 %

Occ: + 3.5 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 9.3 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 6.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: - 9,3 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 7,6 %

Occ: + 8.2 % ADR: + 31.1 %

RevPar: + 41.9 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 6.8 %

RevPar: + 9.9 %

Occ: + 2.7 % ADR: + 15.2 %

RevPar: + 18.3 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: - 0.7 %

RevPar: - 2.0 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 6.3 %

Occ: + 22.4 % ADR: + 35.8 %

RevPar: + 66.3 %

May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Mar 16


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April 2016 – Frankfurt with significant growthOcc: 73%, ADR: €116, RevPar: €84The April forecasts for Frankfurt were very positive – growth in all key parameters. This year, April was a complete busi-ness month, ensuring many event and corporate bookings, and thus distinct growth in room rates. Demand from the meetings sector was high. The MEX and the “Musikmesse“ music trade fair were also held in April. In previous years, the IMEX trade event had always taken place in May.

Occ: -1.3%, ADR: +7.6%, RevPar: +4.2%

May is still set on course for growth, with

RevPar expected to grow by 4.2% . The

IFFA exhibition, which takes place every two years,

is being held again and is the main reason for the

upturn in ADR. However, it remains to be seen as to

whether such room rates can be upheld over the

long holiday weekends, as May is packed with public

holidays. The absence of the IMEX event during the

month will not help either.

Occ: -1.3%, ADR: -14%, RevPar: -13%

So far, forecasts for June have been

extremely negative. In June 2015, the

Achema trade fair was held. This event is always

accompanied by very high occupancy figures and

a very healthy ADR. This is the main reason for the

enormous drop in room rates since last year. The

Optatec and Texcare trade fairs were unable to out-

weigh the Achema event, either in terms of occupancy

or ADR. The only hope is that there will be more

meeting and corporate trade, as there are no more

public holidays or major trade fairs before the school

summer vacations.

Occ: +0.2%, ADR: +1.0%, RevPar: +1.1%

At the moment, July is still difficult to

forecast. MICE demand at the beginning

of the month is still very promising. But otherwise,

conditions are very similar to last year. The next few

weeks will show whether anything will change in this

respect.

05 06 07

12,0%8,5%

21,5%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 5.3 % ADR: + 4.3 %

RevPar: - 1.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 5.3 %

Occ: + 3.9 % ADR: + 11.1 %

RevPar: + 15.5 %

Occ: + 0.0 % ADR: + 0.1 %

RevPar: + 0.0 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.6 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: -5,2 % ADR: + 4.1 %

RevPar: - 1,3 %

Occ: + 13.5 % ADR: + 31.0 %

RevPar: + 48.9 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 6.9 %

Occ: - 0.1 % ADR: + 3.0 %

RevPar: + 3.1 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 3.3 %

RevPar: - 0.4 %

Occ: - 3.3 % ADR: + 1.7 %

RevPar: - 1.7 %

Occ: + 12.0 % ADR: + 8.5 %

RevPar: + 21.5 %



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April 2016 – Hamburg above last year‘s performanceOCC: 84%, ADR: €119, RevPar: €100The hotel industry in Hamburg expected major performance increases in April and it was not disappointed. Growth was even stronger than originally predicted. The positive deve-lopment is because this year, the Easter school holidays were held in March. The Aircraft trade show was very well attended and also generated short-term overflow in hotels outside the city centre. Moreover, demand in the corporate sector was also very good. Individual and group sector busi-ness was much better than in 2015, while leisure bookings were roughly at last year’s levels.

Occ: -2.5%, ADR: +1.4%, RevPar: -1.2%

Forecasts for May are no longer espe-

cially positive. This is due to the many

public holidays in the month; in 2016, alongside the

First of May, Ascension Day and Whitsun, Corpus

Christi also falls within the month (in 2015 it was in

June) and so only calendar week 19 remains a full

business week, which explains the decline in occu-

pancy. The ADR increase is mainly due to demand

in the transient and tourist segments. Hamburg’s

hotel industry will also miss the Röntgenkongress

(Congress of Radiology).

Occ: +0.3%, ADR: +2.7%, RevPar: +3.0%

June looks positive overall. A similar

development to last year is expected.

However, according to some hoteliers, there are still

low advance bookings in the tourist and transient

sectors. The absence of the Hafenkongress (Port

Congress) is not helping the hoteliers. However, many

of them are expecting a good business month.

Occ: +0.3%, ADR: +4.9%, RevPar: +5.2%

No summertime blues in Hamburg! In

many places, the school summer vaca-

tions do not begin until the end of July. Consequently,

a great deal of corporate business certainly can be

expected at the start of the month. Otherwise, July

will be very well booked by coach parties in any case.

This, on its own, is reason for the Hamburg hotel

market to be optimistic.

05 06 07

4,7% 4,9%

9,7%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.0 %

RevPar: + 8.5 %

Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: - 9.5 %

RevPar: - 10.6 %

Occ: - 0.9 % ADR: + 2.1 %

RevPar: + 1.3 %

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 3.1 %

RevPar: + 0.9 %

Occ: - 2.0 % ADR: - 0.1 %

RevPar: - 1.9 %

Occ: + 1.9 % ADR: + 4.0 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: - 5.1 % ADR: + 0.4 %

RevPar: - 4.9 %

Occ: - 2.6 % ADR: + 2.5 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 3.2 %

Occ: + 1.1 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 4.8 %

Occ: + 4.7 % ADR: + 4.9 %

RevPar: + 9.7 %



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April 2016 – FIBO brings growthOcc: 73%, ADR: €101, RevPar: €74April was supposed to be marked by clear increases in per-formance – and that is exactly what happened. There were no public holidays and hardly any school vacations. Things were very different last year. Consequently, there was time available in April for much more corporate and conference trade. The FIBO event (7 to 10 April 2016), was especially im-portant in April, and it grows stronger from year to year. This time, it again generated satisfactorily high room rates and a great deal of demand. April was a very good conference and business month in Cologne and Bonn.

Occ: -8.8%; ADR: -13%; RevPar: -21%

As before, there has hardly been any

demand for the month of May. The large

number of public holidays means that the business

weeks are completely dismembered. Besides this, there

will be hardly any major events during the month. Last

year, the Interzum trade fair impacted greatly on the

performance in May. However, it will be missing this

year, just like the FESPA event. Only the “Final4” and the

“Drupa” events at the end of the month are generating a

little optimism. It is still difficult to make any forecasts

about these.

Occ: +5.3%; ADR: +18%; RevPar: +24%

The forecast for June is very different -

increases are expected in all three key

parameters. June will be a full business month because

the public holidays all fall in May this year. The trade fair

situation is also very promising. In line with its four-year

cycle, the Drupa event is again being held his year, and

it promises to generate very strong demand and high

room rates. The ANGA COM is also ensuring a positive

mood due to the strong demand it generates.

Occ: +2.5%; ADR: +7.2%; RevPar: +9.9%

There was no summer slump in Cologne

this year. The highlights are similar to last

year’s: Christopher Street Day and the “Kölner Lichter”

event – there is already demand. Besides this, the school

holidays begin one week later. Thus, the first week of

July will again be marked by healthy conference and

corporate trade.

05 06 07

7,2%9,0%

16,9%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 3.0 % ADR: + 7.5 %

RevPar: + 4.2 %

Occ: - 0.3 % ADR: + 3.7 %

RevPar: + 3.4 %

Occ: - 3.7 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 10.4 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.8 %

RevPar: + 6.4 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 4.7 %

RevPar: + 7.5 %

Occ: - 8,9 % ADR: - 19,4 %

RevPar: - 26,6 %

Occ: + 10.7 % ADR: + 11.3 %

RevPar: + 23.3 %

Occ: + 4.3 % ADR: + 10.2 %

RevPar: + 15.0 %

Occ: + 8.5 % ADR: + 30.3 %

RevPar: + 41.3 %

Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 4.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: - 2.7 % ADR: + 1.4 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %

Occ: + 7.2 % ADR: + 9.0 %

RevPar: + 16.9 %



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April 2016 – Dramatic growth thanks to the baumaOCC: 83%, ADR: €177, RevPar: €146The dramatic growth that April was expected to generate re-ally did arrive. The public holidays and most of the school holidays were in March. Thus, there was time for additional business weeks marked by healthy corporate trade. How-ever, the main reason for the huge room rate increases of almost 59 percent was the „bauma“ event, which is only held once every three years. Football also played a major role this April. The Champions League, the German Cup competition, as well as the Bundesliga all generated good demand on the respective match days.

Occ: -3.6%; ADR: +5.3%; RevPar: +1.5%

May is marked by a large number of pu-

blic holidays. Despite this, the forecasts

are improving all the time. Such major events as the

Analytica and the ECE convention, as well as the two

days of the IFAT trade fair at the end of the month all

provide reasons for optimism. This year, the two-week

Whitsun school vacation falls entirely in May. The ear-

ly Whitsun means that leisure-sector trade will come

very quickly and will largely depend on the weather.

As a result, forecasts are still cautious.

Occ: -0.6%; ADR: +5.5%; RevPar: +4.8%

June will be a full business month. Neit-

her public holidays nor school vacations

will interrupt corporate business. Things were very

different last year. The hotel industry will still be bene-

fiting from the two days of the IFAT event at the start

of the month. Besides this, two lucrative trade shows

(the Automatica and Intersolar) will also be taking

place at the same time. These optimistic forecasts

therefore seem entirely justified.

Occ: +0.9%; ADR: +6.6%; RevPar: +7.5%

Expectations for the high summer are

also very positive in Munich. The gene-

rally positive developments over the last few months

do give reasons for optimism. Besides this, July is al-

ways a good business month because of the absence

of school holidays. This year, Ramadan ends around

two weeks earlier than in 2015. However, it remains to

be seen just how sceptical guests from Arab countries

will be, in view of the attacks in Paris and Brussels.

05 06 07

13,0%

59,1%

79,8%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 3.2 % ADR: - 4.1 %

RevPar: - 7.2 %

Occ: + 0.9 % ADR: + 6.9 %

RevPar: + 7.8 %

Occ: - 2.1 % ADR: - 1.1 %

RevPar: - 3.1 %

Occ: - 1.0 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 7.9 %

Occ: - 6.4 % ADR: - 8.6 %

RevPar: - 14.3 %

Occ:+ 0.3 % ADR: + 8.5 %

RevPar: + 8.8 %

Occ: + 4.6 % ADR: + 1.8 %

RevPar: + 6.5 %

Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 7.9 %

RevPar: + 8.0 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 3.0 %

Occ: - 5.2 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %

Occ: - 6.1 % ADR: - 5.8 %

RevPar: - 11.4 %

Occ: + 13.0 % ADR: + 59.1 %

RevPar: + 79.8 %


The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.

As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.

The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]

Melanie Schlüter, Project Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]

Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

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