fairmas hotel report february 2016...hotel performance & trends 02|16 report fairmas hotel...

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Fairmas Hotel Report

Edition February 2016

Performance Analysis: January 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months

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Hotel Performance & Trends

02|16

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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG

Occ: 58%, ADR: €84, RevPar: €49The New Year began strongly in Berlin. The positive trend from last year could also be upheld in January 2016. It was still possible to sell the weekend well together with New Year‘s Eve; room rates were significantly higher than last year. The Fashion Week and Panorama events went well. The Grü-ne Woche (“green week”) plays an important role, especially in the West of the city. However, while demand was generally weaker, prices could still be raised compared to last year. The developments of the past year have strengthened the Berlin hotel industry in its pricing policy, and that has had a positive effect again in January.

Occ: -3.1%; ADR: +5.0%; RevPar: +1.7%

February brings many trade fairs and

other events to Berlin: Carnival, the Fruit

Logistica, the Berlin International Film Festival (Berlina-

le), the Krebskongress (Cancer Congress) and a number

of other conventions. Carnival week is poor and wit-

hout much in the way of corporate business. “Bautec”,

which takes place in 2016 (it is held every other year)

should make an increase in room rates possible. It is

the same story with the Krebskongress (Cancer Con-

gress); however, inquiries for this are still low.

Occ: -5.4%; ADR: -2.3%; RevPar: -7.6%

March was strong last year but it seems

that the Berlin hotel industry will be

unable to repeat this success. In any case, Easter and

the school holidays, are already well booked with

price-sensitive leisure business. On Easter Saturday, an

international football match at the Olympic stadium

could lead to room rate increases. The ITB will be the

only major event. Apart from that, two congresses,

which were very good for the numbers last year, will

be missing this time.

Occ: +0.5%; ADR: +6.7%; RevPar: +7.2%

While the public holidays and vacations

in March will still negatively affect per-

formance, the scheduling of the school holidays does

mean more business days in April. Moreover, there is

also a favourable conference situation: the “ConhIT”

and a medical congress will ensure a healthy level of

demand and should lead to strong room rates. Overall,

general corporate demand is very promising and

the Berlin hoteliers are looking forward to April with

optimism.

02 03 04

January 2016 – Berlin starts with growth

Trend

-0,4%

2,3% 2,3%

Occ ADR RevPar

Occ: + 6,0 % ADR: - 3,8 %

RevPar: + 1,8 %

Occ: + 2,6 % ADR: - 6,5 %

RevPar: + 9,2 %

Occ: + 4,9 % ADR: + 27,4 %

RevPar: + 33,8 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 6,2 %

RevPar: + 5,6 %

Occ: + 3,3 % ADR: + 5,4 %

RevPar: + 8,9 %

Occ: + 0,8 % ADR: + 4,2 %

RevPar: + 5,1 %

Occ: + 8,9 % ADR: + 0,4 %

RevPar: + 9,4 %

Occ: - 2,3 % ADR: + 0,9 %

RevPar: - 1,5 %

Occ: + 8,7 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 14,9 %

Occ: + 4,9 % ADR: - 2,8 %

RevPar: + 1,9 %

Occ: + 1,6 % ADR: + 3,4 %

RevPar: + 4,9 %

Occ: - 0,4 % ADR: + 2,3 %

RevPar: + 2,3 %

Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16

© Fairmas 2016


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Report


January 2016 – Good start in Dusseldorf

Occ: 65%, ADR: €101, RevPar: €65In January, Dusseldorf was marked by a 3% improvement in RevPar, due above all to the excellent growth in room ra-tes (ADR: +6.4%). Nevertheless, the month was marked by a sharp decline in occupancy. Hoteliers complained of a gloo-my start in the first days of January. In terms of room rates, the market is benefiting from significant double-digit ADR in-creases, due to both the PSI trade fair and the “Boot Messe” boat show.

Occ: -1.2%; ADR: +2.5%; RevPar: +1.2%

February in Dusseldorf is generally loo-

king positive, mainly due to the room rate

development (ADR: +2.5%). This year, the METAV trade

fair is taking place (it is held every two years) parallel

to the EuroCIS. It provides additional revenue and is

the reason for the positive ADR forecast. Increased

demand in the event sector gives the forecast added

credibility. The leap year is providing the hotel industry

with an extra day of potential sales. Otherwise, Febru-

ary looks set to be similar to the same month in 2015.

Occ: -10.4%; ADR: -3.1%; RevPar: -13.1%

March, on the other hand, is expected

to show sharp declines in all three key

indicators (Occ: -10%, ADR: -3%, and RevPar: -13%).

The “Prowein” and “Beauty” events are being held each

year but the IDS trade fair in Cologne will be absent

in 2016. Last year, it generated significant overflow

business for Dusseldorf. In addition, this year’s school

Easter holidays will only be in March and will so take

up one more week of the month than had been the

case in 2015.

Occ: +13.7%, ADR: +43.0%, RevPar: +62.6%

April again looks likely to be marked by

very high growth, with an increase in

RevPar of almost 63%. It remains to be seen as to

whether this will all happen. Nevertheless, the three full

business weeks (the Easter school holidays fall entirely

within March this year) will ensure a high volume of

demand. The “Wire & Tube” (held every two years) is

the main reason for the high ADR increase.

02 03 04

Occ: - 10,0 % ADR: - 25,2 %

RevPar: - 32,6 %

Occ: + 0,2 % ADR: - 21,5 %

RevPar: - 21,5 %

Occ: + 8,2 % ADR: + 31,1 %

RevPar: + 41,9 %

Occ: + 2,8 % ADR: + 6,8 %

RevPar: + 9,9 %

Occ: + 2,7 % ADR: + 15,2 %

RevPar: + 18,3 %

Occ: - 1,3 % ADR: - 0,7 %

RevPar: - 2,0 %

Occ: + 8,1 % ADR: + 2,8 %

RevPar: + 11,1 %

Occ: - 12,7 % ADR: - 38,0 %

RevPar: - 45,9 %

Occ: - 4,5 % ADR: + 4,1 %

RevPar: - 0,6 %

Occ: - 2,5 % ADR: + 2,7 %

RevPar: + 0,3 %

Occ: + 3,5 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 9,3 %

Occ: - 3,6 % ADR: + 6,4 %

RevPar: + 2,5 %


-3,6%

6,4%

2,5%

Occ ADR RevPar

Trend© Fairmas 2016


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Report


January 2016 – Significant growth in Frankfurt Occ: 63%, ADR: €117, RevPar: €74 Frankfurt experienced growth in terms of all three key figures in January. The month featured one extra day of the “Paper-world/Christmasworld” event than last year. At the beginning of the year, hoteliers reported a fundamental room rate in-crease in all sectors – improved meeting and event business was registered. From the third calendar week on, additional corporate business led to an increase in ADR, as the school holidays ended in all the federal states.

Occ: -4.5%, ADR: +3.3%, RevPar: -1.4%

In Frankfurt, the forecast for February is not

a positive one (RevPar: -1.4%). Firstly, there is

one day exhibition trade of less from the Paperworld/Christ-

masworld show. In addition, Carnival is being held one week

earlier. In 2015, the Ambiente trade fair coincided directly

with days of the carnival, which are otherwise marked by

low-price business. Thus, during the 2016 the carnival peri-

od, not much corporate or event trade can be expected.

Occ: -4.3%, ADR: +4.7%, RevPar: +0.2%

March looks likely to be a somewhat friendlier

with a slight (0.2%) growth in RevPar. This

year, the “Light & Building” exhibition will again be held;

room rates are likely to be similar to those for the ISH trade

fair in 2015. However, there are only two business weeks

that can be sold for corporate and conference business

because in 2016, the Easter holidays begin one week

earlier than in 2015. Last year, in contrast, there were three

business weeks.

Occ: +10.4%, ADR: +9.3%, RevPar: +20.8%

April is looking extremely positive in terms of

all three key parameters. April is a full business

month (ADR: +9%). Hoteliers are expecting an overall strong

demand in the meetings segment. In addition, the IMEX

trade show will be taking place this year. In previous years,

this event has been held in May.

02 03 04

Occ: + 2,1 % ADR: + 2,6 %

RevPar: + 4,8 %

Occ: + 4,8 % ADR: - 0,6 %

RevPar: + 4,4 %

Occ: + 13,5 % ADR: + 31,0 %

RevPar: + 48,9 %

Occ: + 2,4 % ADR: + 4,5 %

RevPar: + 6,9 %

Occ: - 0,1 % ADR: + 3,0 %

RevPar: + 3,1 %

Occ: - 3,6 % ADR: + 3,3 %

RevPar: - 0,4 %

Occ: + 3,0 % ADR: + 3,6 %

RevPar: + 6,7 %

Occ: - 5,3 % ADR: + 4,3 %

RevPar: - 1,1 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 5,3 %

Occ: + 3,9 % ADR: + 11,1 %

RevPar: + 15,5 %

Occ: + 0,0 % ADR: + 0,1 %

RevPar: + 0,0 %

Occ: + 1,6 % ADR: + 4,6 %

RevPar: + 6,0 %


1,6%

4,6%

6,0%

Occ ADR RevPar



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January 2016 – Hamburg performance grows slightlyOcc: 61%, ADR: €93, RevPar: €56 The New Year started positively enough in Hamburg. RevPar rose by 1%. New Year‘s Eve last year was so convenient for employees that many tourists treated themselves to a long weekend. In addition, strong demand in the MICE segment led to an increase in room rates of over 3%. A few smaller trade fairs were held in the “Hamburger Messe” and genera-ted a little more demand.

Occ: +3.9%, ADR: +3.9%, RevPar: +7.9%

Hoteliers expect growth in Hamburg this

February, with RevPar up by 8%. They are

already registering strong MICE-sector demand. The

“Hanse Golf”, the “Hamburger Motorrad Days” motorbike

event, the “Online Marketing Rockstars Festival 2016”

and some other events are generating higher demand.

Hoteliers are hoping for additional sales due to the leap

year, since February has 29 days this time.

Occ: -1.9%, ADR: -0.2%, RevPar: -2.2%

The trend for March is more negative than

last year. The shift of the Easter holidays

to the last weekend in March (in 2015, Easter was in

early April) and a poor forecast for the “Internorga” event

mean that expectations are lower than in 2015 (RevPar:

-2.2%). Overall, there are far fewer days of events this

March.

Occ: +0.5%, ADR: +5.1%, RevPar: +5.7%

The positive development in April is because

this year, the Easter school holidays are

scheduled in March. Similarly, the strong development of

the Aircraft trade show compared to last year is boosting

expectations (RevPar: + 6%).

02 03 04

Occ: + 4,7 % ADR: + 2,5 %

RevPar: + 7,6 %

Occ: + 0,1 % ADR: + 6,0 %

RevPar: + 6,2 %

Occ: + 1,9 % ADR: + 4,0 %

RevPar: + 6,0 %

Occ: - 5,1 % ADR: + 0,4 %

RevPar: - 4,9 %

Occ: - 2,6 % ADR: + 2,5 %

RevPar: - 0,1 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 3,8 %

RevPar: + 3,2 %

Occ: + 2,1 % ADR: + 4,6 %

RevPar: + 6,7 %

Occ: - 1,9 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 0,1 %

Occ: + 3,3 % ADR: + 5,0 %

RevPar: + 8,5 %

Occ: - 1,2 % ADR: - 9,5 %

RevPar: - 10,6 %

Occ: - 0,9 % ADR: + 2,1 %

RevPar: + 1,3 %

Occ: - 2,3 % ADR: + 3,1 %

RevPar: + 0,9 %


-2,3%

3,1%

0,9%

Occ ADR RevPar



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Report


January 2016 – Successful start in Cologne/BonnOcc: 63%, ADR: €112, RevPar: €70The hotel industry in Cologne can look forward to a very suc-cessful start to the New Year. However, there was hardly any demand in the first two weeks of January. Nevertheless, it was possible to sell the first weekend in January very well together with New Year’s Eve. The IMM Cologne was accom-panied by strong ADR. Yet this year it was held without the

“LivingKitchen“ event (held every two years) and was thus marked by much less demand, with room rates down on last year’s. The first days of the ISM Cologne confectionery trade fair and the Spoga were also in January. This fact was very favourable to performance.

Occ: -2.4%; ADR: +2.0%; RevPar: -0.4%

Demand in Cologne and Bonn will be

very subdued in February, except for the

few days of the ISM Cologne. The Carnival period does

promise good room rates. But there have been many

cancellations due to the incidents at New Year‘s Eve.

The ISM ends quite smoothly in time for the Carnival.

This means that no half week of business trade will be

lost, as happened last year. The “Didacta” takes place

from 16 to 20 January. This event rotates between

Cologne, Stuttgart and Hanover.

Occ: -13.9%; ADR: -23.0%; RevPar: -33.7%

Last year, there were two very strong trade

fairs in March – the IDS and Anuga. This

year there is only the Eisenwarenmesse (ironmongery

fair), for which demand is not nearly as strong as with

the other two trade fairs, and room rates will not be

anything nearly as high. In addition, the Easter school

holidays are almost entirely in March and this will

lead to difficulties in terms of demand and room rates.

Because of the fact that Easter is early this time, the

desire to travel will probably be more moderate.

Occ: -5.4%; ADR: +7.3%; RevPar: +13.0%

April is set to bring significant increases in

performance. There are no public holidays

and no school vacation. Things were very different last

year. This all means there is likely to be much more

corporate and conference business in April. Demand is

already encouragingly strong. The FIBO event (7 to 10

April 2016) is especially important in April. It is growing

stronger from year to year. The demand for this trade

fair is already reassuringly strong and the room rate

structure promising.

02 03 04

Occ: + 6,5 % ADR: + 8,0 %

RevPar: + 14,9 %

Occ: + 6,9 % ADR: + 6,7 %

RevPar: + 13,9 %

Occ: + 10,7 % ADR: + 11,3 %

RevPar: + 23,3 %

Occ: + 4,3 % ADR: + 10,2 %

RevPar: + 15,0 %

Occ: + 8,5 % ADR: + 30,3 %

RevPar: + 41,3 %

Occ: - 1,9 % ADR: + 4,4 %

RevPar: + 2,5 %

Occ: + 6,9 % ADR: + 28,8 %

RevPar: + 37,4 %

Occ: - 3,0 % ADR: + 7,5 %

RevPar: + 4,2 %

Occ: - 0,3 % ADR: + 3,7 %

RevPar: + 3,4 %

Occ: - 3,7 % ADR: - 6,8 %

RevPar: - 10,4 %

Occ: + 1,6 % ADR: + 4,8 %

RevPar: + 6,4 %

Occ: + 2,8 % ADR: + 4,7 %

RevPar: + 7,5 %


2,8%

4,7%

7,5%

Occ ADR RevPar



02|16

Report


January 2016 – Munich somewhat below last yearOcc: 63%, ADR: €118, RevPar: €74The beginning of the year was very sobering for the Munich hotel industry. The first ten days were extremely poor. The public holiday on January 6 cost hoteliers an entire business week, so that little corporate business could consequently be placed. Leisure business in the first week of January was able to stimulate occupancy temporarily, though room rates were rather low. The ISPO event did take place in January 2016, though this is a traditionally much weaker trade show than last year’s BAU event. The BAU is only held every two years and so it will not take place again until 2017. Due to the far lower demand, room rates in January had to be cut significantly.

Occ: -6.3%; ADR: -6.5%; RevPar: -12.4%

February also is expected to be weak.

There are no major trade shows or events

on the agenda. So far, there has been no sign of any

strong meetings sector trade. However, the general

demand for February also increased again from the

second week of January onwards. February 2015 was

particularly affected by the ISPO trade fair, which takes

place in January this year. That leaves February 2016

without any significant drivers of demand.

Occ: +1.6%; ADR: +11.9%; RevPar: +13.6%

March will be a strong month. The EAU

Congress and the FAF fair trade, which

takes place alternately in Cologne and Munich every

three years, will have a very positive impact on occu-

pancy and ADR. Besides this, there is an international

football match and one Champions League match.

March 2015 had to make do without any events. In

addition, the Easter weekend falls in March. Although

this will not lead to high room rates, it will still be

positive for occupancy.

Occ: +13.7%; ADR: +73.9%; RevPar: +97.8%

April will bring dramatic gains. The public

holidays and the larger part of the school

holidays are in March. Thus, there will be more busi-

ness weeks for good corporate business. However, the

“Bauma” will be the main reason for the huge (74%)

increases. This event only takes place every three years

and is the world‘s largest trade fair for construction

machinery. It has a great impact on the Munich hotel

industry.

02 03 04

Occ: + 6,8 % ADR: + 11,6 %

RevPar: + 19,3 %

Occ: - 1,2 % ADR: + 4,0 %

RevPar: + 2,9 %

Occ: + 4,6 % ADR: + 1,8 %

RevPar: + 6,5 %

Occ: + 0,1 % ADR: + 7,9 %

RevPar: + 8,0 %

Occ: - 1,3 % ADR: + 4,5 %

RevPar: + 3,0 %

Occ: - 5,2 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 1,3 %

Occ: + 4,0 % ADR: + 1,7 %

RevPar: + 5,7 %

Occ: - 3,2 % ADR: - 4,1 %

RevPar: - 7,2 %

Occ: + 0,9 % ADR: + 6,9 %

RevPar: + 7,8 %

Occ: - 2,1 % ADR: - 1,1 %

RevPar: - 3,1 %

Occ: - 1,0 % ADR: - 6,8 %

RevPar: - 7,9 %

Occ: - 6,4 % ADR: - 8,6 %

RevPar: - 14,3 %


-6,4%-8,6%

-14,3%

Occ ADR RevPar


The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.

As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.

The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH Email: [email protected]

Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management Solutions Dot WG GmbH Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

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