evolution of strategic environmental assessment (sea) to inform hydropower development in the mekong
TRANSCRIPT
22 n d September, 2015 Tarek KETELSEN
Internat ional Centre for Envi ronmenta l Management
Evolution of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to inform hydropower
development in the Mekong
Overview 1. Introduce the Mekong 2. Mekong hydropower
Ø History of hydropower development 1960-‐2030s Ø Impacts of hydropower
3. SEAs in Asia Ø What is an SEA? Ø What makes an effecHve SEA?
The Mighty Mekong • A unifying feature in Southeast Asia
• 11 of 200 WWF global ecoregions
• Rich evergreen, dry dipterocarp, mixed deciduous forests
Mekong wetlands • Largest riverine wetland complex
in the region • 255,000km2 of wetlands • (55,500km2 natural)
A biodiversity hotspot we are s8ll discovering
• Second highest level of aquaHc biodiversity basin on the planet
• “An average of three new species a week – more than 2,200 in total – were discovered in the Greater Mekong between 1997 and 2014”
• hSp://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/scienHsts-‐discovered-‐139-‐new-‐species-‐in-‐the-‐greater-‐mekong-‐in-‐2014-‐wwf-‐report-‐20150527-‐ghazy6.html#ixzz3mQfwUbkT
Origin of many domes8cated plants • One of eight main centers of
origin for domesHcated plants • 117 + 55 = 172 crop wild
relaHves (CWR) • Rice, eggplants, sugar cane,
black pepper, mangosteen, nutmeg and others all originated in the Greater Mekong Region
• More than 100 ethnic groups reflecHng the diversity of their surrounding environment
Mekong livelihoods
• The Mekong ands its ecosystems play a crucial role in the lives of the 90 million people living in the Basin.
• Most people in the basin are rural farmers/fishers and while many are money-‐poor, they are resource-‐rich.
• >70% of Mekong popula8on are dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods
• Mekong has highest per capita fish consump8on on the planet and the largest freshwater fishery (~2 Mt/yr capture, 0.7Mt/yr aquaculture)
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• Monsoon climate and snow/glacial melt in the Lancang River leads to a “flood pulse” hydrograph
• Flood pulse is highly variable between seasons, but highly consistent in the Hming of seasonal transiHons
• Vast areas of flood plain, river banks and in-‐channel islands vary between aquaHc and terrestrial phases every year
• CreaHng seasonal habitats and efficient recycling of biomass and nutrients
MEKONG FLOOD-PULSE REGIME
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1-‐Jan 1-‐Feb 1-‐Mar 1-‐Apr 1-‐May 1-‐Jun 1-‐Jul 1-‐Aug 1-‐Sep 1-‐Oct 1-‐Nov 1-‐Dec
PAKSE
VIENTIANE
CHIANG SAEN
KRATIE
TAN CHAU
CHAU DOC
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MEKONG HAS HIGH LEVELS OF CONNECTIVITY
• Mountains – floodplains – delta – marine – Transport of average 457km3/yr – Produc8on & transport of ~160Mt of
sediment each year – >26,000 t/yr of Total P
• Floodplains – riverine habitats – Migra8on of fish – at least 800,000 t/
yr (200species) – Floodplain refuge for 1.3 Mt/yr of
non-‐migratory fish
Over the past decade the Mekong is changing… 1. The hydrology of the Mekong River is beginning to
exceed the natural variability observed in long-‐term 20th century monitoring record.
2. For the first Hme in 6,000 yrs the Mekong Delta is no longer showing net pro-‐gradaHon.
Causes? 1. Land use change? 2. Climate change? 3. Land subsidence? 4. Hydropower
development?
Hydropower on the Mekong
MEKONG MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER
VIET NAM
¨ Reservoir lengths: 10 – 180km ¨ Reservoir Areas: 13-‐620km2 ¨ 55% of the Mekong River (Chiang Saen to KraHe)
converted from river to reservoir ¨ Total installed capacity: 14,697 MW (~25% of total
hydropower potenHal of LMB countries)
12 LMB mainstream hydro – Economic impacts • 12 projects: 6-‐8% of LMB power demand in 2025
– ~80-‐90% desHned for export to energy hungry economies of Thailand, Vietnam and China
• Lao would gain the most but also has many alternaHves in tributary projects.
• Cambodia has fewer alternaHves and heavily dependent on important oil
• Total export revenues USD 3-‐4 billion/yr – During the BOT period 26-‐31% would accrue to host country
• Total FDI USD 25billion – 50% spent outside host countries
Livelihood implica8ons • Fishery
– Capture fishery loss of USD 476mil/yr – Reservoir fishery + 14mil/yr
• Agriculture – Loss of USD 33.1 mil/yr – Expanded irrigaHon 15.5mil/yr
• LMB mainstream projects would likely contribute to a growing inequality and a short to medium term worsening of poverty in LMB countries
• Insufficient naHonal and regional capacity to ensure that benefits accruing at the naHonal level are transferred to the local level
The SEA stakeholders concluded
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THEME ISSUE LAO PDR CAMBODIA THAILAND VIET NAM
Hydrology and sediment
Changes in patterns of maximum water levels, rates of rise and predictability
Changes in sediment transport and deposition
Changes in nutrient transport
Terrestrial ecosystems and agriculture
Habitat loss and degradation
Changes in Land use
Changes in irrigated agriculture
Changes in River bank gardens
Aquatic
ecosystems
Change in productivity of aquatic habitats
Changes in populations of rare and endangered species
Changes in water quality
Fisheries Changes in long distance migration
Changes in fish species biodiversity
Changes in fish production
Social systems Changes in poverty and natural resource based livelihoods
Changes in health and nutrition
Social effects of resettlement, land acquisition and loss of access
Changes in cultural values and patterns
Economics Contributions to national economy -‐ Export earning
Contributions to national economy -‐ Foreign Direct Investment
Contributions to local economies (district and community level
Energy and Power
Achieving energy security
Meeting national energy demands
Meeting local energy needs
Climate change
Relative emissions of green-‐house Gas
Direct impacts of climate change on hydropower projects -‐ extreme events & dam security
Combined effect of climate change and mainstream dams on food security
The SEA stakeholders concluded
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q All groups recognised that benefits would be focused on power & economic sectors while risks would focus on natural & social systems, parHcularly fisheries and hydrology & sediment
q All groups were concerned over potenHal for increased poverty from mainstream development despite recogniHon of high returns from power sales
q The Lao group placed highest significance on the power benefit, while the Viet Nam and Thai groups gave the least significance to this benefit – even though they would consume most of the power
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
• are a form of sustainability analysis • Promote ecologically sustainable development • address the broader strategic issues:
– relaHng to more than one project, and
– that need to be resolved and decided prior to making project specific decisions. • follow similar steps to EIAs but have much larger scope in terms of Hme,
space and subject coverage. • focus on the planning instruments and processes involved in decision-‐making • serve as an umbrella level of analysis that feeds more specific EIAs and
improves their quality. 24
Ra8onale for SEA
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• Arose in response to the limitaHons of project-‐based EIAs
Development vision & strategies
Spa8al & sector plans
Project design
Project implementa8on
EIA SEA
Research, Data, analysis Consulta8ons
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• An SEA is effecHve if it influences the decision making process.
• Influence can be: – To disHll the criHcal trade-‐offs – the
“big” issues – Providing alternaHves to the plan
that beSer meet sustainability objecHves
– Consolidate sustainability objecHves where they are absent
– Provide space for discussion and debate amongst decision makers
– Improve transparency of decision making
– fill informaHon gaps by undertaking new research
SEAs INFLUENCE DECISION PROCESSES
SEAs in Asia differ from SEAs in Europe
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• SEAs were designed to be rapid, desk-‐top sustainability audits (15-‐20pages), where:
– planning frameworks are robust – Planning processes are consultaEve – Data and informaEon is plenEful
• In Asia, consultaHons and data are limited and planning frameworks are evolving rapidly
• In Asia, effecHve SEAs are osen 5-‐10 Hmes larger
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ROLE OF SEA
SEA what are the cross-‐sectoral
impacts of large hydropower development on the surrounding ecosystems, communiEes and economies?
what are the alternaEves to large hydropower which will conEnue to support growth without the high cost to natural systems and other sectors?
WATERSHED MANAGEMENT
¨ Conservation plans ¨ Agriculture, fisheries,
aquaculture etc master plans ¨ Rural development plans ¨ Protected Area buffer zone
management plans ¨ Water allocation plan POWER & INDUSTRY
¨ Power development plans
¨ Transmission line master plans
¨ Special Economic Zones ¨ Distribution systems
Steps in the SEA process
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IncepHon and scoping Report
Baseline Assessment
Report OpportuniHes & Risk Report
Final Report
NaHonal Government consultaHons Regional Government ConsultaHons Civil society OrganizaHons (CSO) ConsultaHons Developer consultaHons
May – June 2009 June-‐Sep 2009 Feb-‐May 2010 May-‐July 2010
Scoping phase Baseline phase
Opportuni8es &
Risk phase
Avoidance enhancement & Mi8ga8on phase
AME Report
Oct 2010
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SEA PROCESS
National Scoping & Capacity Building Workshop & Civil Society Meetings•4 National Scoping Workshops•3 Civil Society meeting•Thai Civil Society meeting to follow in November
8 THEMES (~30 -‐ 40 KEY ISSUES)
Government Line Agency Meetings•meetings with 40 agencies in the LMB
2 Field Missions & Opinion from 17 experts•LuangPrabang, Xayabouly, Pak Lay, Sanakhan, Pak Chom
100s of development Issues
past present future
Without mainstream hydropower
Issue 2
Issue 1
With mainstream hydropower
2. BASELINE ASSESSMENT
With mitigation
1. SCO
PING
3. OPPORTUNITIES & RISKS ASSESSMENT
4. MITI
GATIO
N
¨ SCOPING: What are the key issues for development and conservaHon ?
¨ BASELINE: What are the trends in these keys issues without the proposed development?
¨ IMPACT: What are the impacts of mainstream hydropower on each of these trends?
¨ AVOIDANCE, ENHANCEMENT, MITIGATION: How will the most important
¨ risks be avoided, or miHgated
¨ benefits be enhanced
Success of Hydropower SEAs in the Mekong • Brought together 60 government and 40 NGO groups from 4 countries in
an 18mth intensive consultaHon process • Provided a scienHfic evidence base for regional discussion on mainstream
hydropower • IdenHfied >100 criHcal gaps in understanding, impeding sustainable
decision making • Triggered a number of follow-‐on studies
– MRC Council Study – Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Study
• Highlighted the need for building capacity in benefit sharing and the need for engagement with the private sector
• Demonstrated the effecHveness of SEA as a tool. Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR are all enhancing their environmental managment mechanisms – (Vietnam and China already have strong SEA policies)
Key Challenges 1. SEAs are osen confronted with situaHons where benefits are well
enunciated and expressed in economic terms while the risks are unclear, unsubstanHated
2. Strong policy & regulatory frameworks (e.g. in Vietnam and PRC) but major challenges in implemenHng at the provincial and sector level.
3. Environmental values are not considered as important as growth 4. Limited cross-‐sectoral discussion & debate 5. Limited financial resources 6. Lack of effecHve Area-‐wide spaHal plans 7. Difficult to promote a long term perspecHve of sustainable development
given the urgency of short term needs
There is no universal right way to implement an SEA
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• SEA is a set of tools and processes to bring ecological sustainability into the decision making process
• Each context is different and SEAs need to adapt to these varying: – Policies and regulaHons – Planning processes – InsHtuHonal capaciHes – Budgets – Evidence base
SEAs are a journey not a des8na8on
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• The SEA process is criHcal to the success of the SEA • Key stakeholders need to be involved at each phase of the SEA
and contribute to decisions as they evolve • Involvement should be inclusive • Consensus should be built at each phase before moving on • SEAs should address the development issues of concern to
stakeholders
