eventtech 2014 session: generating real-time event intelligence
DESCRIPTION
Materials presented by George Tan of Brandscopic at 2014 EventTech in Las VegasTRANSCRIPT
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GEORGE TAN & DR. E. CRAIG STACEY
USING TECHNOLOGY TO GENERATE REAL-TIME EVENT INTELLIGENCE
Today’s Objectives
Turn your events into opportunities to regularly generate insights for clients
Answer critical questions that keep your clients awake at night
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1
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The Event Intelligence Lifecycle
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IDENTIFY OBJECTIVES COLLECT RELEVANT DATA
ANALYZE FOR INSIGHTS
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Turn key client questions into clear objectives (don’t just think of sales ROI!)
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Consider 3rd party information and also what you are uniquely generating
Leverage available tools to identify trends
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Case Study: Light Beer Company
The Power of Beer
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Light Beer Company (LBC)
• Experiential marketing agency hired to conduct on-premise sampling events in bars, clubs, etc. in 2013 and 2014
• Importer of light, lager-style beer
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3
Translate client conversations into clear primary and
secondary objectives
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KRISTINA
• “Where should I be spending my limited marketing budget?”
BUDGET RELATED (PRIMARY GOALS) • Determine ROI
MARKET SHARE RELATED (SECONDARY GOALS)
CMO, Light Beer Co.
• “What emerging light beer brands do I need to watch out for?”
• Identify trending light beer brands
• Isolate causes of share shift
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Advances in event technology make capturing
information nearly effortless
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Not all data is equal, more granular information is
always preferred and sometimes required
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• Large B2B events • Multi-day, multi-location B2C campaigns
Acceptable when you can collect many observations (n>100) or are looking for directional answers
• Small B2B events • Single day, single-location B2C campaigns
Required when you are only able to collect fewer observations (n<100) or need precise answers
1 2
3 Cl
eare
r (1-
to-1
) Fu
zzie
r
GRA
NU
LAR
ITY
Post-Event Recap
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Clea
rer (
1-to
-1)
Consumer Surveys (at event)
Fuzz
ier
Sales Data (3rd party)
Online Activity: Social Media (e.g., DataSift)
Online Activity: Search
(e.g., Google)
GR
ANU
LAR
ITY
INCREMENTAL COST REQUIRED
Attendee Tracking: 1-to-1 Technologies
(e.g., RFID)
Attendee Tracking: Counters
(e.g., Turnstiles)
Consumer Surveys (email or panel-based)
Sales Data (Internal)
Less Expensive More Expensive
INTERNAL SOURCES
EXTERNAL SOURCES
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Granular info is often more costly; internally-generated
data is often high quality and free
We have decided on key objectives and necessary
data to capture, now what?
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Unique Internal Sources Simple consumer surveys conducted at on-premise sampling events
Identify trending light beer brands for Kristina at Light Beer Company
Available 3rd Party Sources Online Activity (Google Trends, Social Media)
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IDENTIFY KEY OBJECTIVES
CAPTURE DATA
ANALYZE FOR INSIGHTS
Analytical techniques vary in cost and complexity;
advanced techniques often provide richer answers
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Mor
e Co
mpl
ex
Less
Com
plex
COM
PLEX
ITY
& CO
ST
Benchmark Relative Performance Compare your brand to the market
LBC is one of the most considered import beers in the U.S. and has gained share against domestics
Competition’s higher quality at a similar price point is causing some share loss
A 1% decrease in LBC’s price would yield a +0.4% increase in LBC sales volume
Identify Underlying Performance Drivers Answer why a behavior occurs
Develop Predictive Model Links performance and underlying drivers
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Start with basic benchmarking
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Benchmark against another point in time
Benchmark data against known competitors AND
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MIN. COST
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Unique data generated at LBC events identifies
emerging brands to track further
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Q: What other beer brands do you most frequently consider drinking? (YTD 2014)
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LBC On-Premise Event Surveys
SOURCE
YTD 2014 TIMEFRAME
Brand names of beers considered by bar patrons
METRIC
MIN. COST
Unique data generated at LBC events identifies
emerging brands to track further
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Q: What other beer brands do you most frequently consider drinking? (YTD 2014)
Hig
her G
row
th EMERGING
THREATS ZONE
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LBC On-Premise Event Surveys
SOURCE
YTD 2014 TIMEFRAME
Brand names of beers considered by bar patrons
METRIC
IMPORTS DOMESTIC
CRAFT BREWS
MIN. COST
Rolling Rock
Augmenting LBC’s event data with 3rd party sources
can provide additional insights
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Beer Comps Mind Share Relative to LBC (as of September 2014)
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Number of brand mentions
METRIC
Social media SOURCE
YTD 2014 TIMEFRAME
MIN. COST
Viewing the same data over time shows change in
share among key competitors
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0
1
2
3
4
5X
LBC Co.
Coors Light
1/1
/20
08
7/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
7/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
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7/1
/20
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1/1
/20
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7/1
/20
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1/1
/20
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7/1
/20
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1/1
/20
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7/1
/20
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1/1
/20
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7/1
/20
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Lagunitas
Miller Lite
Beer Comps Mind Share Relative to LBC (January 2008– September 2014)
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Number of brand mentions
METRIC
Social media SOURCE
JAN 2008 to SEP 2014
TIMEFRAME
MIN. COST
Lagunitas Google Search Activity, US Only (YTD 2014)
Lagunitas appears to be a particularly interesting
brand in California and Illinois
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3
MIN. COST
Number of brand searches
METRIC
Google Trends SOURCE
JAN 1, 2014 to APR 2014
TIMEFRAME
Machine scoring of event commentary suggests
Lagunitas acts as a stepping-stone to other beer types
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LBC Sampling Event Sentiment Scores: What do you think about the Lagunitas beer?
Range of Scores
-1 (most negative)
0 (neutral)
+1 (most positive)
-0.02 A little too bitter, but not too bad
+0.68 Great. I suggest it to anyone looking to upgrade from store bought light beer into a quality beer
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3
-0.58 This beer had zero aroma…I think they are shipping their beer all over the place and its ruining the quality
+0.50 Good flavor and no foul aftertaste
+0.38 A very good and easy to drink IPA
Emotional sentiment of event commentary
METRIC
LBC On-Premise Event Survey
SOURCE
YTD 2014 TIMEFRAME
MOD. COST
Upcoming Tech: Facial detection software can count and
quantify emotion in all submitted photos adding a new level of
quantifiable data depth
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DETECTED
4 FACES GENDER
50% MALE 50% FEMALE PRIMARY EMOTION
100% JOY
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3
MOD. COST
Sentiment of event photos
METRIC
LBC Sampling Event Photos
SOURCE
TBD TIMEFRAME
Combining 3rd party market and internally generated event data can yield very powerful, predictive models
Business Cycle Disposable Income + A 1% increase in disposable income per capita implies a 0.75% increase in beer consumption
Consumer Sentiment (Michigan Index) - Each 1% increase in the index reduces volume 0.1%
Price Price: - A 1% increase in the price of the real beer CPI implies a 0.15% decrease in current year beer consumption rising to a cumulative -0.4% over two years
Alcohol CPI On-Premise/Alcohol CPI Off-Premise - A 1% increase in the relative price of alcohol on-premise implies an
approximate 0.5% decrease in beer consumption Beer Price Off-Premise/ (Wine Price Off-Premise + Spirits Price Off- Premise) - A 1% increase in the beer off-premise price relative to other alcohol off-
premise prices implies a 0.4% decrease in beer sales
Marketing Beer Ad Spend (Real $) + A 1% increase in Beer Ad Spend implies a 0.12% increase in Beer Consumption
Liquor Ad Spend (Real $) - A 1% increase in Liquor Ad Spend implies a 0.04% decrease in Beer Consumption
Wine Ad Spend (Real $) - A 1% increase in Wine Ad Spend implies a 0.03 decrease in Beer Consumption
Societal & Population Legal Sub 21 Drinkers as a Percentage of the Population + Allowing legal drinking for 1% of the population adds 0.8% to consumption
Average Age (Beyond Mix Correction in Weighted Population) - A 1% increase in the average age of the population has a -0.1% impact on
beer consumption through “social direction”
Diet Mentions - A doubling of publicity on low-carb diets reduces consumption 2.2%
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Beer Consumption Model
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VERY HIGH COST DRIVER COEFFICIENT DESCRIPION
A combination of available business cycle, pricing, marketing and population factors model beer consumption accurately
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-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
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5%
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7%
8%
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20%
Unexpla
ined V
olu
me
(m
odel resid
ual as a
% o
f actu
al)
0
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75
100
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Volu
me in M
M B
arrels
(Acuta
l and M
odele
d)
ACTUAL MODELED
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VERY HIGH COST
Volume of beer consumed
METRIC
Multiple sources SOURCE
1960–2012 TIMEFRAME
Beer Volume (Actual and Modeled)
Summary of Findings from LBC On-Premise Sampling Campaign
• LBC is one of the most popular import beers and is gaining share from domestics
• Lagunitas is an emerging threat, especially in CA and IL o Considered an entry option for lager
drinkers looking to expand their taste profile
o An affordable, high-quality beer alternative to cheaper light beers
o Recent expansions in IL will make this an immediate national threat
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KRISTINA
• “Let’s add Lagunitas to your regular watch list”
CMO, Light Beer Co.
• “Can’t wait to see next month’s update”
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The Brandscopic Leadership Team
GEORGE B. TAN CEO
George joined the Brandscopic team in 2013 and brings with him over a decade of strategy consulting, private equity and data analytics experience. George holds a B.S. in Computer Engineering from Northwestern University, and an M.B.A. from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
CHRIS JASKOT CTO
Chris founded Brandscopic in 2005 as an experiential marketing management solution focused in the nightlife marketing industry. Chris holds a B.S. in Computer Science from the University of Michigan .
DR. E. CRAIG STACEY Analytics Advisor
Dr. Stacey is a recognized expert in the area of marketing analysis and provides input to Brandscopic analytics. He is currently a Founding Partner at The Marketing Productivity Group and the Director of NYU Stern’s Center for Measurable Marketing
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PRESENTATION RESOURCES
brandscopic.com/eventtech2014
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