european tissue outlook - confederation of european paper ... · european tissue market outlook...

European Tissue Market Outlook

Esko UutelaPrincipal, Tissue, RISI

CEPI European Paper Week, Brussels, BelgiumNovember 29, 2017

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• Educational background in forestry, economics and business studies

• In consulting business and information services for the forest industry since 1976

• Cooperating with RISI since 2007• Developed global tissue databases and

forecasting models• Previous experience in graphic papers,

packaging papers and recovered paper• Assisted by RISI Asian, European and

American colleagues and consultants• Produced more than 200 single‐client and

multi‐client tissue studies

Principal, Tissue

Esko Uutela

[email protected]

© Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information 2

Agenda• Europe in the Global Context

• Recent European Market Trends

• Demand Outlook for Europe

• Capacity Changes

• Demand/Supply Outlook

• Concluding Remarks


EUROPE IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT


World Tissue Consumption by RegionChina has passed Western Europe in market size, while Asia Far East is—and Eastern Europe soon will be— larger than Japan. Europe accounts for about 24% of the global market.

N. America 25.0%

China21.3%

W. Europe18.3%

L. America11.1%

Asia Far East6.0%

Japan5.5%

E.Europe5.4%

N&M East4.1%

Africa2.1%

Oceania1.2%

Global Consumption: 36.4 Million Tonnes (2016)

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Relative Growth of Tissue Consumption by Region, 2006‐2016Western Europe has shown only modest growth in the past 10 years but Eastern Europe is among the 3 fastest growing regions

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Average Global Growth 3.5% per Year in 2006‐2016


Regional Volume Growth of Tissue Consumption, 2006‐2016China dominates the volume growth, European growth 1.5 million tonnes in the past 10 years

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More than40% of global growth in China!

Total Global Growth: 10.5 Million Tonnes (1,048,000 Tonnes per Year) © Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information 7

RECENT EUROPEAN MARKET TRENDS


Main European Tissue Markets, 2016The four largest markets account for half of European tissue consumption, only two Eastern countries on the top 10 list

Germany17%

UK13%

France10%

Iberian Peninsula

10%

Italy10%

Russia6%Poland

6%

Nordic Countries6%

Benelux5%

Greece2%

All Others15%

Total Market Size: 8.65 Million Tonnes © Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information 9

Western European Tissue Market Showed Positive Recovery in 2015, 2016 DisappointingMajor variations in growth from year to year

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Recession over but noconstant return to past

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Relative Growth of WE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2006‐2016In the past 10 years, growth has been fastest in smaller markets Malta, Ireland and Austria and slowest in the large markets

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© Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information11© Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information

Volume Growth of WE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2006‐2016In the past 10 years, growth has been strongest in Germany, followed by the UK and France

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Eastern European Tissue Market Growth Negatively Affected by the Political TensionThe Russia‐Ukraine conflict has taken its toll also in the tissue sector but 2016 was surprisingly strong, mainly thanks to Poland

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Relative Growth of EE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2006‐2016In the past 10 years, growth has been fastest in Belarus, Poland, and Russia, followed by Serbia and Romania

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Volume Growth of EE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2006‐2016In the past 10 years, Russia and Poland have clearly been driving the growth, followed by Romania and Ukraine but far behind

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DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE


Growth Rate of Western European Tissue Consumption, 2014‐2020We expect relatively slow growth to continue in the next years

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Volume Growth of WE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2016‐2021In the next five years, volume growth will be largest in France, followed by the UK, Germany and Italy

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Growth Rate of Eastern European Tissue Consumption, 2014‐2020The outlook is rather optimistic for tissue market growth in the next few years

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Volume Growth of EE Tissue Markets by Main Country, 2016‐2021In the next five years, volume growth will be largest in Russia, followed by Poland, Romania and Ukraine

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CAPACITY CHANGES


Major Capacity Changes (>10,000 t/a) in the WE Tissue Industry, 20152015:• Cominter Tisú, Hernani, Spain 22,000 t/a• Confidential 17,000 t/a• Cartiera della Basilica (Eurovast), Bagni di Lucca, Italy (25K‐9K) 16,000 t/a• Fortissue (SUAVECEL), Viano de Castelo, Portugal 30,000 t/a• Fourstones, Sapphire, Leslie, Scotland, UK 26,000 t/a• Viochartiki, Aspropyrgos, Greece ‐16,000 t/a • Cartiera Eurotec, Fabbriche di Vallico, Lucca, Italy ‐18,000 t/a• WEPA Group, Bousbecque, Lille, France 32,000 t/a• Athens Paper Mill, Athens ‐50,000 t/a• Papergroup, San Gennaro, Collodi, Lucca, Italy 26,000 t/a• SCA Hygiene Products, Stubbins, UK ‐35,000 t/a• AMS Paper (The Navigator Co.) , Vila Velho de Rodao, Portugal 32,000 t/a• SCA France, New Orléans, France ‐35,000 t/a• WEPA, Giershagen, Germany 32,000 t/a

79,000 t/a© Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Major Capacity Changes (>10,000 t/a) in the WE Tissue Industry, 2016‐20172016:• Cartiera del Borgo (Eurovast), Fabbriche di Vallico, Lucca, Italy 20,000 t/a• SCA Hygiene Products, Mediona, Spain ‐45,000 t/a• SCA France, Hondouville, France ‐21,000 t/a• Several Rebuilds by Different Companies 33,000 t/a

‐13,000 t/a2017:• Paper Prime (Trevipapel), Vila Velho de Rodao, Portugal 32,000 t/a• Renova, Torres Novas, Portugal (NTT) 35,000 t/a• Ariete, Cava de Tirreni, Salerno, Italy 25,000 t/a• Cartiere della Basilica, Botticino, Italy 15,000 t/a• SCA, Stubbins, UK ‐20,000 t/a

87,000 t/a

© Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.23© Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information

Major Capacity Changes (>10,000 t/a) in the WE Tissue Industry, 2018‐20202018:• SCA, Chesterfield, UK (TAD PM rebuild and restart) 28,000 t/a• Goma‐Camps, Ejeo de Caballeros, Spain, Italy 34,000 t/a• The Navigator Company, Cacia, Aveiro, Portugal 70,000 t/a• Ibertissue (Sofidel), Bunuel, Spain 70,000 t/a• ICT Iberica, El Burgo del Ebro, Zaragoza, Spain 70,000 t/a

272,000 t/aPotential Projects (2019‐2020):• Accrol Paper, Blackburn, Lancashire, UK 60,000 t/a• Confidential, Central Europe 65,000 t/a• Delipapier, Ingrandes, France 60,000 t/a

185,000 t/a

© Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.24

Major Capacity Changes (>5,000 t/a) in the EE Tissue Industry, 2015

2015:• Interpaper, Munix, Belarus ‐6,000 t/a• AB Grigiskes, Traku, Vilnius, Lithuania (30K‐9K) 21,000 t/a• Claire’s, Nikopol, Bulgaria 16,000 t/a• Fabryka Papieru Kaczory, Margonin, Poland 21,000 t/a • GZP, Niedomeckie, Poland 6,000 t/a• LLC Pulp Invest, Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia 27,000 t/a• Fabryka Papieru i Textury Beskidy, Wadovice, Poland 17,000 t/a• Syassky, Syasstroy, Russia ‐20,000 t/a• ICT Poland, Kostrzyn, Poland 70,000 t/a• SC Metalplas Impex (MG Tec Group), Dej, Romania 30,000 t/a

182,000 t/a


Major Capacity Changes (>5,000 t/a) in the EE Tissue Industry, 2016‐20172016:• Firma W. Lewandovski, Wloclawek, Poland (20K‐15K) 5,000 t/a• Syassky, Syasstroy, Russia 38,000 t/a• Tissue Paper, Tbilisi, Georgia 7,000 t/a• JSC Kohavian Paper Factory, Gnezdytchiv, Ukraine 5,000 t/a

55,000 t/a2017:• Novak‐Papir, Peruc, Slavatien, Czech R. 10,000 t/a• Drenik, Belgrade, Serbia 10,000 t/a• Kostenets HHI, Kostenets, Bulgaria ‐26,000 t/a• Kuban‐Papir, Krasnodar, Russia 8,000 t/a• Pol‐Mak, Przemierovo, Poland 25,000 t/a• WEPA Professional, Piechowice, Poland 32,000 t/a• Delitissue (Sofidel), Ciechanow, Poland 70,000 t/a• Velvet CARE, Klucze, Poland 60,000 t/a

189,000 t/a


Major Capacity Changes (>5,000 t/a) in the EE Tissue Industry, 20182018:• Vajda Papier, Dunaföldvar, Hungary 32,000 t/a• Arkhbum Tissue Group, Vorsino, Kaluga, Russia 70,000 t/a• Drenik ND, Belgrade, Serbia 30,000 t/a• Hayat Kimya Group, Alabuga, Tatarstan, Russia 70,000 t/a

202,000 t/a


DEMAND/SUPPLY OUTLOOK


Net Capacity Change* and Tissue Capacity Utilization in Western Europe until 2021Capacity closures helped the industry in 2011‐2013 but new projects thereafter cut the trend, outlook is not promising for 2018‐2019

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Net Capacity Change* and Tissue Capacity Utilization in Eastern Europe until 2021New investments from late 2014 onward and slowed demand growth turned capacity utilization into decline, which will continue in 2018‐2019

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Net Capacity Change* and Tissue Capacity Utilization in Europe until 2021European investments have pushed capacity utilization down since 2013 and the next three years will not change the situation much

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Concluding Remarks• The Western European tissue business is rather mature and

with limited population growth, growth will remain modest, with only some improvement in penetration degrees of products helping.

• The sub‐regional outlook is different in Western Europe: the Nordic region and Central Europe rather balanced but as ongoing investments concentrate on Iberian Peninsula in particular, overcapacity is obvious there.

• Eastern Europe has still a lot of potential to grow, and even though the Russian‐Ukrainian conflict in the Donbas region is everything else than solved yet, the overall outlook is improving. However, many investments are coming and more are reportedly planned so that no major improvement in capacity utilization can be expected in the next few years.

• Central Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula are in a good move forward, recent growth in Poland has been extremely surprising, and a few other countries are likely to follow.


Thank you for your attention!For more information:

Outlook for World Tissue Businesswww.risi.com/OWTB

World Tissue Business Monitorwww.risi.com/WTBM

US Tissue Monthly Datawww.risi.com/USTM


european tissue outlook - confederation of european paper ... · european tissue market outlook...

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