euro4m 4rd ga, norrkoping, 17-19 april 2013

Status and difficulties for running 2D re-analyses at

5.5km over Europe

E. Bazile & C. Socispecial thanks to SMHI: T. Landelius & P. Dahlgren

EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013


Deliverables

MESCAN over Europe: domain, parameters, constraint, downscaling issues

Observations available

Preliminary results

Future plans

OUTLINE


# D2.5 New MESAN-SAFRAN downscaling system (month 36): MESCAN OK

• Available in the official cycle of ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME/HARMONIE system cy38t1 under a logical switch LMESCAN.

• Precipitation analysis is also available (more details in C. Soci talk’s)

# D2.6 Report describing the new system in D2.5 (month 40 August 2013)

# D2.11 Evaluation of MESCAN system in particular for snow (month 42):

• Started with M. Lafaysse (CEN, Grenoble): MESCAN analysis drives CROCUS (sophisticated snow scheme) and the snow depth is compared to observations over the French Alps and Pyrenées

• Over Europe, SURFEX is forced by MESCAN-Europe at 5.5km snow cover, snow depth, snow albedo (comparison with SAF-land product) and surface fluxes (latent and sensible) compared at observation site : SMOSREX, Sodankyla, Cabauw (M. Coustau and E. Martin)

Deliverables


3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km, 60 Levels over Europe (SMHI)

2D analysis at x ~5.5 km

Downscaling

More observations

By adding details with topography and more observations, the quality of the analysis should improve …

MESCAN over Europe: domain, downscaling …

x ~ 5.5 km over Europe 1080x1000


3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km, 60 Levels over Europe (SMHI)

2D analysis MESCAN at x ~5.5 km

x ~ 5.5 km over Europe 1080x1000

Downscaling

More observations

MESCAN over Europe: domain, downscaling …

Hirlam 2 Grib files 22km: - T2m, Wind Ps, RR_liq (124Mb) - Hu2m, Radiative fluxes, RR_sol (13Mb)

Software : GL( SMHI) (~5mn/file)

FA file for input to MESCAN with T2m, Hu2m, Wind, RR_liq, RR_sol, LW, SW : 200Mb

Observations T2m, Hu2m (1.3Mb) and RR24h from rain gauge (1.4Mb)

Output FA file : 160Mb every 6h for T2m and Hu2m, RR24 at 6UTC. (~14mn for T2m/Hu2m and ~7mn for RR analysis)

1 month at 5.5km for all Europe: 54Gb and 32h on the HPC platform at ECMWF so for 4 years ~ 2months and 2.5Tb


Observation Network for Precipitation

Potentially available in ECA&D and useful for a daily re-analysis but :• RR1: Precipitation amount unknown interval• RR2: Precipitation amount morning previous day 06,07,08,09 until morning today (shifted 1 day back by ECA staff)• RR3: Precipitation amount morning today 06,07,08 until morning next day• RR4: Sum of 12-hourly precipitation of observations at 06 and 18 UT (2 values). Date of 18 UT• RR5: Precipitation amount morning today 07:30 CET until morning next day•RR6: Precipitation amount 18-18 UT (sum of 4 values)•RR7: Precipitation amount 0 - 0 UT•RR8: Sum of 12-hourly precipitation of observations at 18 UT today and 6 UT tomorrow (2 values)• RR9:Precipitation amount morning today 06:00 UTC until morning next day• RR10: Precipitation amount within 00-24, 07-07 or 08-08

Without 1-4-6-7-10



Observation available and useful for re-analysis for the 15th december 2009 from ECA&D.MF provides RR24 only until 2005

Observation available and useful for re-analysis from the MF database used in NWP ~2500 obs (1300 over France)

A merge is necessary between the two database but it is not an easy task.For preliminary test over Europe the MF database is used.



A merge is necessary between the two database, but hopefully thanks to Tomas Landelius, the merge has been done and the next MESCAN-Europe will use exactly the same observations file as MESAN.

Observation available and useful for re-analysis for the 15th december 2009 from ECA&D.MF provides RR24 only until 2005

Observation available and useful for re-analysis from the MF database used in NWP ~2500 obs (1300 over France)


MESCAN-Europe Monthly mean RR (mm/day)

HIRLAM FG DEC2009

MESCAN DEC2009

Suspicious spot of precipitation due to some weaknesses in the quality control ?

ANALYSIS-FG DEC2009


MESCAN-Europe Monthly mean RR (mm/day)

MESCAN JAN2010 MESCAN JUNE 2010


MESCAN-EUROPE vs MESCAN-FR

for the precipitation analysis Heidke Skill Score Domain France Dec2009-Jan2010 and June 2010

MESCAN-Europe : 5.5 km, ~1300 obs over France, guess from HIRLAM 24H at 06UTC. Available for Dec2009, Jan 2010 and June 2010

MESCAN-FR: 5.5km, ~1700 obs over France, Oct2009 June 2010, guess from NWP ALADIN.

MESCAN-FR-ALL: 5.5km, ~4300 obs over France, Oct2009 June 2010, guess from NWP ALADIN

HIRLAM Guess at 5.5 km


OBS MAX=397mm

MESCAN-FR MAX=264mm

HIRLAM guess RR24h MAX=67mm

Extreme event:flash flood Var 15th June 2010 (RR24h mm)

MESCAN-EUROPE MAX=231mm


MESCAN-Europe T2m

MESCAN Dec2009 MESCAN DEC2009HIRLAM BG DEC2009


MESCAN-Europe with 1300 obs.

Control Analysis (1300 obs)

• the errors are larger over complex topography

RMSE of analyzed T2m as a function of classes computed for Dec 2009.

Zmod < Zobs Zmod > Zobs

MESCAN-FR with 1300 obs.

2750 Ob

s

4210 Ob

s

152900 Obs

Validation over the France of the MESCAN analyzed T2m at European scale


Validation over the France of the Analyzed T2m at European scale

MESCAN-EUROPE DEC2009 (HIRLAM GUESS)

MESCAN-FRANCE DEC2009 (ALADIN GUESS)

Diff. between MESCAN-EU and MESCAN-FR for the monthly T2m:Same observations, only the guess is different gives an idea where the uncertainties are ?


MF in WP1: Inter-comparison of spatial interpolation methods for daily precipitations over France and sub-regions(P. Lassegues, M. Figarol, A.L. Gibelin, J.P. Céron)

Meteo-France DCLIM has produced an experiment of inter-comparison of several spatialisation methods and analysis system like SAFRAN and MESCAN for daily rainfall over France during the years 2010 and 2011.

Three methods based on rain-gauge data and radar data were tested against methods not using radar, considered here as reference methods.

High density rain gauges network was used, including manual rain gauges (not available in real time).

10% (421) random rain gauges were put aside for validation.

Many scores were produced : RMSE, bias, scores for the discrimination of rain/no rain, scores for the discrimination of heavy rains, HSS

Marc Lafitte will continue the comparison with MESCAN and SAFRAN for 2009-2010 over France.

Domain for comparison with the Prism-Symap method (thanks to C. Frei, MeteoSwiss) year 2010, in red obs. used only for validation. (from M. Figarol et al. report)

some results Perfect skill KDE TPS 3D Ordinary Kriging RMSE mm 0 2.063 2.100 2.241 RMSE (after sqrt transform. of Precip.)

0 0.387 0.388 0.409

ME (bias) mm 0 0.012 0.015 -0.019 MRE precip>=20mm 0 0.052 -0.066 -0.095 HSS 2 classes contingency table threshold 0.2mm

1 0.785 0.790 0.784

HSS 2 classes contingency table threshold 20 mm

1 0.978 0.976 0.975

SEEPS(0.2mm-2/3-1/3) 1 0.846 0.845 0.838


Kriging with Ext. Drift

with radar data

(all observations ~3700)

MESCAN 5.5Km with


SAFRAN


MESCAN 5.5Km

With real time rain gauge (~1700)

SAFRAN

With real time rain gauge (~1700)

Oct-Nov-Dec2009

Thanks to P. Lassegues


Indirect validation over Europe at observation site: SMOSREX, Cabauw,

Sodankyla

Less bias with MESCAN

Thanks to M. Coustau

ALD1_dz : +15 W.m-2.j-1 (+37%)

ALD2_FP : +15 W.m-2.j-1 (+40%)

MESCAN_FB : +4 W.m-2.j-1 (+10%)

14

Latent heat flux (W/m2) SMOREX


• Use the observation database merged by Tomas Landelius (SMHI) and used for MESAN re-analysis for the MESCAN–Europe production.

• Improves the QC for the precipitation observation to avoid spurious spot in North Africa

• Evaluate the impact of the choice for the HIRLAM guess between 24h cumulated from 06UTC or use several forecasts for 24h cumulated RR : fc00+18-fc00+06+fc12+18-fc12+06 (with T. Landelius)

• Create hourly pseudo T2m observations from Tmin/Tmax (M. Perrin, F. Besson and J.M. Soubeyroux) : D.C Reicosky et al. (1989) Agric. And Forest Meteo. 193-209 using only geographic information or by analogy with neighbour station with hourly data

• Starts the MESCAN-Europe (v0) production for Oct2009-Dec2010 in June 2013 probably available in July 2013 comparison with MESCAN-FR if OK run the re-analysis for 4 years.

Future plans

euro4m 4rd ga, norrkoping, 17-19 april 2013

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