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Estratégia e Competitividade A Envolvente Empresarial: das Megatendências aoMercado RelevanteAlberto Castro ([email protected])
16.05.2018
Environment, strategy, organization andmanagement – a framework(fonte e modelo original: José Santos)
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E – where we are (will be) ; S – what we do (will do);
O – who we are (will be)
Environment, strategy, organization and management
Environment (context), strategy and performance
What determines or conditions what?
Simultaneity
To what extent? What are the degrees of freedom?
Determinism? Firm specific variables?
How does it condition? As usual?
Dynamics
Stability?
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TÍTULO DO SLIDE 28 pt
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Management is central- good news?
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Source: Bloom et al., 2014
If you think it must be the context, think again! Whereverthey locate, multinationals score higher
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The mean…
There are diferences between and within countries
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Still, context matters
- THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND
- “The right product markets, technology, and geography are critical components of long-
term economic performance. Bad industries usually trump good management, however: in
sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and technology, almost two-thirds of the
organic growth of listed Western companies can be attributed to being in the right markets
and geographies. Companies that ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them
usually struggle. Identifying these currents and developing strategies to navigate them are
vital to corporate success.” (McKinsey, 2010)
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Some Critical Questions
What are the benefits of an international footprint when turbulence seems the denominator?
How long can our traditional sources of competitive advantage survive in the face of technological disruptions?
How will evolving societal values affect our business model?
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A framework for Organisingthe Information
MEGATRENDS
MARKET INFORMATION
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PEST analysis
Political/Legal
Economical
Social-cultural
Technological
New dimensions:
Environmental (Planet)
A Changing Context – trends and forces(adapted from McKinsey Quaterly, April 2017)
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New Growth ScenariosBeyond GlobalizationRebalancing power – the force of very large countries/marketsResources (un)limited?
Industry DisruptionTechnological IntegrationCustomer is the kingEcossystem revolution
New societal dealDark forcesThe need for co-operation
New Growth Scenarios:
Beyond Globalization; Deglobalization; Slobalization?
New political and economic (im)balances
From G7 to G20, from BRICs to ICASA to…
Economic power. Political power
The unprecedented challenges (economics and otherwise) of giantcountries
Unheard of – emerging and developing countries generate more growth than developed ones
Size matters
However…
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Rebalancing- the economy
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Or may be not
New political and economic (im)balances
OpportunitiesNew middle classes = new markets
Opportunities of “new” demographics
Specificities within globalisation
ChallengesAnti-globalization
Slowdown (traditional indicators), but
Acceleration (data flows)
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Resources (un)limited?
The Efficiency ImperativePricing the Planet
New values and attitudes towards environmentprotection and sustainability
A new bottom-line – planet
And this matters – see how much it costed (still costs) VW
Climate change (despite Trump)
Paris Agreement and new regulations
Trade-off between pressure to accomodate demand and scarceresources
The imperative: produce more with (historically) fewer workers and resources
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New values and attitudes towards environmentprotection and sustainability
Opportunities
“Clean-tech” industries
Electric vehicles and mobility/utility solutions
New York
Cross fertilization of different technologies
Circular economy
But also disruption
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The Efficiency Imperative:Market and Society
The need for growth and the role of markets
The 3rd bottom-line: peopleSocial responsibility: Art of doing well by doing good
Profits, Planet, People
Market left alone: growth and growing disparitiesSocial safety net and pressure upon public policies
Inequality and social unrest
Oppportunities for extremists
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Society on the move
There were countries, there are cities?
- UrbanizationAre we growing younger or older?
- DemographicsWho is in charge?
- Feminization
And also, the role of NGOs, the media, religion,…
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Urbanization
Ageing?
SOCIETY ON THE MOVE Women’s Power
Female to male workforce participation ratio1)
1) Proportion economically active females to males for population ages 15 and older . Source: World Bank
Industry Disruption:Technological Disruption
Technology – One step at a time!
(1)Transportation and CommunicationsThe world is “smaller”
(2) Information TechnologiesSharp drop in costs of collecting and processing informationThe world is becoming faster
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Moore’s law in practice (1) (Source: António Vidigal)
Moore’s law in practice (2) (Source: António Vidigal)
Technology – all together now!
(3) A new ball game- “from the few to the many; from the simple to the complex” (W. BrianArthur)
Examples: blockchain; machine learning; precision medicine; mobility solutions: …
From new products and services to new business models to new firms to…
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Stop Making Sense?!
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Stop Making Sense?!
The consumer is queen
Many services for freeWikipedia; Skype
Differentiation and specificityFrom sneakers to mobile-phones
Coexistence of open-source market with willingness to payWhat business model? How to create value and make money
Farfetch; long tail; …
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A new societal deal
Technology matters – not everything isstraightforward (productivity paradox)
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Technology matters (in more dimensionsthan it might seem)
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Technology matters (in more dimensions than itmight seem)
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Dark forces
Globalization, technology, uneven distribution of gains set the stage for populistalternatives
Fake newsDemocracy versus civilization?
As if it were not suficientTerrorismCybercrime
The need for a new societal dealWill it happen?Where do we go from here?
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First synthesis
An evolving environment
- Unstable
- Unequal
- Unsustainable
- Uncertain
That is: diverse; complex; dynamic; uncertain
Plus: many times devil is in the details
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How to prepare for changes in the environment?
Foreseeable uncertainty (RISK) : prepare/ integrate in
strategyProbability; scenarios; sensitivity analysis
Adapting or anticipating – exogenous context
Intervene / proact – endogenous (or potentially so) context
Absolute uncertainty (UNCERTAINTY) : prepare the
organizaton to endure or be at easy in an unforeseeable
context
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A (sometimes quickly) changing environment
Companies, large or small, cannot ignore it (mainly, nowadays)
In a world without absolute certainty, life depends upon probabilities
Chances of surviving increase with information, knowledge, capacity
to understand
BUT, a tennis player who discusses with the umpire and keeps on
looking to the scoreboard or the espectators, rather than to the ball,
will lose the point
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The times they’re a changin’
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The times they’re a changing – the example ofJeff Bezos
First, ignore; contestAnd then (September 2018)
And also (October 2018)
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A (sometimes quickly) changing environment
Companies, large or small, cannot ignore it (mainly, nowadays)
In a world without absolute certainty, life depends upon probabilities
Chances of surviving increase with information, knowledge, capacity
to understand
BUT, a tennis player who discusses with the umpire and keeps on
looking to the scoreboard or the espectators, rather than to the ball,
will lose the point
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Just in case you forgot…
“The right product markets, technology, and geography are critical components of
long-term economic performance. Bad industries usually trump good
management, however: in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and
technology, almost two-thirds of the organic growth of listed Western companies
can be attributed to being in the right markets and geographies. Companies that
ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them usually struggle.
Identifying these currents and developing strategies to navigate them are vital to
corporate success.” (McKinsey, 2010)
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An application - footwear
POLITICAL / LEGAL ECONOMICAL SOCIO / CULTURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
A simpler (?) exercise – besides megatrendswhat matters most?
The Economic Dimension - detail
Porter’s 5 forces model for industry analysis
TraditionallyWhat industry?What market?
Blurring of industry boundariesWhat ecosystem?
Still,…
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Source: Besanko, et al. (20125 forces by Porter, himself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYF2_FBCvXw
Porter’s 5 forces model for industry analysis
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Threats/ Barriers to entry
Threats / Differentaition/
Complementarities
OBRIGADOAlberto Castro