erica shook honors climate change biology- ncssm online 20 december 2011
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The PETM and Leaf Margin Analysis: How does the PETM and Leaf Margin Analysis Relate to Climate Change we are facing today?. Erica Shook Honors Climate Change Biology- NCSSM Online 20 December 2011. What is the PETM?. PETM stands for Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The PETM
The PETM and Leaf Margin Analysis:
How does the PETM and Leaf Margin Analysis Relate to Climate
Change we are facing today?
Erica ShookHonors Climate Change Biology- NCSSM Online20 December
2011
What is the PETM?
PETM stands for Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum.The PETM was a
phenomenon in Earths history were the temperature jumped to high
temperatures for about 10,000 years. This jump reached 6 degrees
Celsius in average temperature.6 degrees Celsius may not seem like
much but remember that annual temperature is a average of global
temperature so in some places the jump was more than 6 degrees.
When Was the PETM?
Cenozoic Era is known as age of mammals.
What caused the PETM?
There is controversy over what caused the PETM. Most theories
believe there was a release of a green house gas from some kind of
sink. As of now the leading theories include...A release of Methane
from Methane stores deep below the oceans surface.Volcanic eruption
that released Carbon Dioxide.A comet impact that released Carbon
Dioxide.. And more!
Some people also argue that just one of these events would not be
enough to trigger the PETM and that it would take multiple of these
events to cause it.
In the end as of now we do not know what caused the
PETM.
Why is the PETM important?
What did the Earth look like during the PETM?
The Earth was virtually ice-free. Midwest America looked more like
what coastal South Carolina does today.Palm trees grew in
Canada.Alligators even swam in Artic swamps.
Relative Position of Continents during PETM
Leaf Margin Analysis
Leaf margin Analysis is the process of comparing the amount of
smoothed edged leaves to the amount of toothed edged leaves in a
sample by a percent. This percent is then put into a linear
function that has been created from data collected of actual
samples of temperature compared to the percent of smooth to rough
edged leaves.The output of the linear function is the average
annual temperature in Celsius of the time and place from which the
leaves are from.
How does this method Work?
The reason this method works is because toothed leaves are able to
begin photosynthesis earlier than smooth edged leaves in the
spring.However toothed leaves lead to a high amount of water loss
which does not provide adequate water to the tree in a hot
climate.So because of this smooth edged leaves are more likely to
be able to grow in warm climates
How does Leaf Margin Analysis help us learn about the
PETM?
In the Big Horn Basin in Wyoming fossils have been found from the
PETM.Fossils of Plants and animals were buried by eroded mud of the
still growing Rocky Mountains and as this mud hardened the plants
and animals fossilized.Today millions of years later scientists
have discovered these fossils.Scientists can sort these plant
fossils by smooth and rough edged leaves and use Leaf Margin
Analysis to estimate the temperature of the PETM.
Lab Activity
Hypothesis: Do you believe that your group estimate or the total
class estimate will be a more accurate estimate of the annual
temperature of Hickory, NC?
Smooth VS. Rough Edged leaves
Finding Percent
We now will find the percent of smooth edged leaves to the total
collected.Smooth Edged LeavesTotal Number of LeavesSo for example
if we had 6 out of 10 smooth edged leaves we would plug into the
above formula and get6/10= .6However we need a percent answer so we
have to multiply our answer by 100.(6/10) x 100 = 60%
Calculating Temperature
Now we can plug in our percent answer in for x in the linear
functionF(x)= 30.06x+ 1.141 Or Y=30.06x+1.141X=Our Percent
answerWith our example of 60% we would plug .60 in for X
Y=30.06(.60)+1.141And GetY=19.177C Where Y equals the estimated
temperature in Celsius.
Do our results align with the actual annual
temperature?
The actual annual temperature in Hickory, NC in 2011 was 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 14.223 degrees Celsius.
Why Might our results not align?Sample SizeTime
collected
Leaf Margin Analysis an Imperfect Technique?
The process of Leaf Margin Analysis used by scientists makes the
assumption that the percent of smooth to total leaves are
relatively the same as million of years ago.
Do we know that Leaf Margin Analysis 100% works no.
We do have other evidence to support the data concluded from
leaf margin analysis from other sources.
How does the PETM relate to Climate Change today?
PETMCurrent WarmingCause?????Anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas, etc)Carbon emissionsLess than 2 billion tons per yearAt least 30 billion tons per yearRate of warming0.025C per 100 years1 to 4C per 100 yearsEnvironmental impactOcean circulation reversed, oceans acidified, permafrost melted, peatlands and forests burned in wildfiresObserved impacts: significant sea ice decline, extreme drought, more wildfires, increase in glacier melt, more catastrophic floods, ocean acidification, sea level rise, shoreline erosion
Potential impacts: degraded air and water quality, permafrost melting, global ocean circulation changes, more violent winter storms and spring tornado seasons, more intense hurricanesEcosystem & human impactMigration of land mammals, extinction of some benthic foraminifera, coral bleachingObserved impacts: Famine and malnutrition due to drought, coral bleaching, species endangerment
Potential impacts: increased mortality from extreme weather and malnutrition, increase in disease vectors, decrease in agricultural yield, mass wildlife migration and extinction, total societal collapse
How is the PETM different from todays Climate Change?
Works Cited
Hickory Weather, Forecast, Temperature and Precipitation. n.d. 2011
14 September ."Prehistoric Climate Change and Why it Matters." n.d.
Smithsonian Education. 15 December 2011 .The Energy Collective.
n.d. 15 December 2011 .The Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum. n.d.
15 December 2011 .
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Remind what linear function is.Y=Mx+b
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