equitable buyout strategies for mitigating flood risk in ... · response to the major floods....
TRANSCRIPT
Equitable Buyout Strategies for Mitigating Flood Risk in Houston
Earthea Nance, PhD, PE, CFM
Texas Southern University
Jamila Johnson, PE, CFM
City of Houston Dept. of Public Works
Presented on June 21, 2018 at the Annual Conference of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, held in Phoenix, AZ.
Outline
• Introduction to Houston’s Flood Risk
• The Success of Houston’s Buyout Strategy
• The Social Impacts of Buyouts on Vulnerable Communities
• How Buyout Programs Can Become More Equitable
• Take-Home Points
How Houston Floods• Riverine flooding from a
system of 22 bayous, rivers, and tributaries.
• Significant localized ponding.
• Significant overland sheet flow.
• Intentional release of floodwater from two overfilled reservoirs to prevent catastrophic failure.
Why Buyouts?
• Buyouts are a key mitigation strategy for confronting the long-term risks and costs of living with flood risk.
• The City of Houston and Harris County Flood Control District pursue strategic buyouts every year, but especially in response to the major floods.
Recent Floods• 2015 – Memorial Day
Flood, 10 inches peak rainfall, 31 deaths, $2.7B in damage.
• 2016 – Tax Day Flood, 23.5 inches peak rainfall, 8 deaths, $2.8B in damage.
• 2017 – Hurricane Harvey, 51.88 inches peak rainfall, 89 deaths, $126.3B in damage.
Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2018
Flood District Home Buyout Criteria
• Source of flooding must be riverine.
• Location and depth (>2 ft) within the floodplain such that structural solutions are not feasible.
• Cost effectiveness as a solution to the property’s flooding problem.
• Potential for future floodplain preservation and/or flood damage reduction projects.
• Compatibility with community and natural values.
Buyout Success
• Since 1985, the Flood Control District has spent $342 million to purchase about 3,100 properties.
• Using FEMA, USACE, and District funds.
• This is one of the most successful voluntary buyout programs in the US.
Buyouts are Happening Everywhere!
Advantages of Home Buyouts• Relocates families to higher ground and out of harm’s way.
• Eliminates future flood damages and health and safety risks for owners and rescuers.
• Reduces repetitive flood insurance payments and federal disaster assistance.
• Restores the floodplain to its natural and beneficial function.
• Creates open space for parks and other community amenities.
• In Harris County, FEMA estimates 1,000 restored acres and over 3,000 houses spared. Buyout volunteers receive pre-storm value + $31k supplement.
The Next Phase• Nine months after
Hurricane Harvey, FEMA approved $164M for the County’s Home Buyout Program.
• This will buyout 1,000 additional homes.
• The first allocation of 169 homes is shown.
Disdvantages of Home Buyouts
• Many low-income residents perceive buyouts as a “taking.”
• Low-income residents cannot afford to relocate.
• Relocation often means losing one’s family, school, church, job, and transportation - irreplaceable resources for low-income residents.
• Houston lacks affordable housing that is not already at high risk.
• Low cost housing often does not meet benefit-cost criteria.
• Low cost housing is more likely to be deemed substantially damaged.
• Many renters can become displaced in buyouts of multi-family units.
• New at-risk rental housing is created by flipping flooded homes.
“Building sustainable disaster resilientphysical environments for the future necessarily involves building moresustainable disaster resilient social structures.”
Enarson and Fordham, 2008
Findings from Social Science Research
• “Flood mitigation is not a technical accomplishment but a social process.”
• “It is critical for local planning groups to include women [and others] whose life experience closely reflects the vulnerabilities and strengths of those most at risk...”
• “Social vulnerability analysis is an important planning tool for disaster managers.“
Source: Enarson and Fordham, 2008:21-24.
Examples of Social Vulnerability in Buyouts
1. Houston Overall
• A context of financialized housing and systemic unaffordability.
• Checkerboard buyout outcomes and insufficient buyout rate.
2. Arbor Court Apartments
• 3 years of devastation, displacement, and failed buyouts.
3. Sumpter Street
• Elderly residents face unwanted buyouts via eminent domain.
4. Fifth Ward
• FEMA denials, funding delays, private-vs-govt. buyouts.
Houston has at least eight privately owned,
federally-subsidized housing complexes located
within the 100-year floodplain.
FEMA Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
• Required for Mitigation Funding from FEMA (FMA and HMGP)
• BCR = Total Project Benefits/Total Project Cost
• BCRs 1 are cost effective
• Pre-calculated benefits projects are automatically cost effective if their cost the following pre-calculated benefits:• $175,000 for elevation
• $276,000 for acquisition
• Substantially damaged structures are deemed cost effective for acquisition.
Barriers to Equitable Mitigation
Descriptive Statistics Impacts
LMI areas have lower flood insurance participation.LMI households were 28% of claims for Harvey.
Ineligible for FMA funding.
LMI areas often lack flood insurance and NFIP flood loss history.LMI properties were 40% of Harvey-flooded properties but only 28% of NFIP claims.
Lower FEMA benefit cost ratios, ineligible for FMA or HMGP funding unless substantially damaged.
LMI areas are impacted by substantial damage.27% of Harvey-flooded LMI properties were substantially damaged.
Strong need for mitigation.Cost effective for buyout under HMGP or FMA (if insured).Low BCR, ineligible for elevation or mitigation reconstruction.
Barriers to Equitable Mitigation, continued.
Descriptive Statistics ImpactsFEMA Individual Assistance payments to LMI properties averaged $10,877.
Inadequate to fund a mitigation project.
74% of flooded LMI properties are in potential buyout areas.LMI properties represent only 37% of voluntary buyouts.
LMI property owners are volunteering for buyout at a lower rate than the general population of flooded properties.
Program design can disproportionately impact low-income residents.
Summary
• Low-income residents are often not interested in being bought out.
• Low-income residents are often denied/not eligible for programs.
• Pre-existing vulnerabilities make it harder to serve low-income clients.
• Programs often do not provide enough funds to cover the actual costs.
• There is not enough safe affordable housing for people to go to.
• Buyouts cannot keep up with flooding or with flipping.
• Program delays induce residents to drop out/avoid the program.
• No plan for addressing the lack of safe affordable housing.
Buyouts Can Be More Equitable
• Chapel Hill, NC - Combined flexible local money with state money to expand the reach of buyouts to low-income residents, comprehensive risk reduction strategy, provide enough to buy a house outside of the flood plain and to relocate, relocate infrastructure and schools as well as homes and people.
• Mecklenburg County, NC – Used flexible local money to buyout every year instead of waiting for a disaster; goal of no homes built in the floodplain, risk scores are transparent, community-based selection from 19 mitigation options, buyouts by area instead of by individual structure, covers all costs including moving, professionals hired to help people find a new home.
Take-Home Points
1. When designing post-disaster recovery, ensure that plans for rebuilding and resource allocation take into account the circumstances of vulnerable families.
2. Dedicate staff time and resources to identify vulnerable populations and understand their specific concerns and needs.
3. The involvement of vulnerable people themselves, or their representatives, in the planning process can increase the likelihood that relevant, quality plans are produced.
Source: Gerber, Disaster Recovery for Low-Income People, 2006.
Contacts
Earthea Nance, PhD, PE, CFM
Associate Professor
Texas Southern University
504.329.0774
Jamila Johnson, PE, CFM
Managing Engineer
Houston Public Works
832.394.9380