Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable Development

Yang Hongwei, Zhou DadiEnergy Research Institute, P. R. China

yanghw@mx.cei.gov.cn

SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigationHotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany

19 June 2004

World Energy Trend

1971 2000 2010 2020 2030

Coal 1449 2355 2702 3154 3606

Oil 2450 3604 4272 5020 5769

Natural gas 895 2085 2794 3498 4203

Nuclear power 29 674 753 728 703

Hydropower 104 228 274 320 366

Other renewables 73 233 336 477 618

Total 5000 9179 11131 13198 15265

IEA, 2003. (Mtoe)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal 2228 3003-4235 3836-5504 4666-7186 4738-8227 4872-9457

Oil 3854 4214-5280 4223-6922 4050-9201 3625-11273 3273-13903

Natural gas 2473 2928-3481 3653-4922 4471-6813 5402-9486 6619-13369

Nuclear power 230 268-371 327-726 359-1275 547-1933 911-2930

Bio-energy 1139 897 900-1470 1280-2080 1890-3070 2870-4600

Other renewables 271 300-360 370-550 530-960 760-1960 1140-3990

Total 1019

312100-13400

14100-17000 16500-21400

18900-26400 21300-31200

IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)

世界能源需求量

05000

100001500020000250003000035000

年份

百万

吨标

油

IEA-WEO2002情景SRES A1B情景

SRES A2情景

SRES B1情景

SRES B2情景

Stable increase in world energy demand and consumption Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the following decades Impacts of technology development on future energy utilization Role of environment in energy development is becoming more

important Environmental issue has played an important role in the energy

development of many countries, as one of the most important reasons why many countries selected oil and natural gas as major energy sources

Climate change will exert important influence on long term energy development in many countries

Different situation for energy development Oil & natural gas dominant period? Optimization of final consumption has

completed? Local environmental protection: strict standard,

higher environmental cost? Constraints for nuclear power development?

China is a developing country Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars Per capita commercial energy consumption is

only 1 tce More than 60% people live in the rural area,

living on the agriculture Need another 50 years to become a middle level

developed country

Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries （ US$）42318

31707 30845 2895926071

12068

5462

769

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China

(1995 constant price).

The urbanization course in China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

The urbanization level of othercountries in 1995

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Korea Amer i ca J apan France Germany

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

rural area in China

urban area in China

Japan(1993)

America(1995)

North Europe

England(1992)

Canada

Pre capita living areas (m2)

01020304050607080

car

stoc

k fo

r100

pers

ons

Per capita car ownership

Per capita steel production (kg/person)

0 200 400 600 800 1000Chi na 2001（ ）

US 1995（ ）

J apan 2000（ ）

France 1995（ ）

Canada 1994（ ）

Worl d Average

Social economic development, the highest priority

Economic development is and will be the dominant social target;

To be a middle level developed country by the middle of this century;

High economic growth rate is expected, needed, and possible for longer period

Long process for industrialization Industrialization is still the main course of

economic and social development for decades Manufacture industry will keep increase Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1%

population moving into cities each year Need more job for young people and farmers, 10

million new positions needed annually Infrastructure construction is far from completed

Energy consumption and GHG emission will increase for many years

TPE consumption in China will be doubled or increase even more in the next two decades

Per capita energy consumption will be close to the world average by around 2020

Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from developed countries

Energy consumption in China remains at very low level compared to many other countries

Trend of China’s energy development is within the very normal range, compared to the development history of other countries

Per capita GDP (1000 US$)

Per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-

C)

Per capita GDP (1000 US$)

Em

issi

on in

tens

ity (t

-C/1

000

US

$)

Continuous efforts on sustainable development Efforts include activities in many fields Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency Efforts on developing energy alternatives Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation Enhance local environment protection Land management to promote sinks

Energy efficiency improvement Promulgated Energy Conservation Law Developed energy conservation plans for each of the 5

years’ development plans Issued associated energy conservation policy and

regulations Established comprehensive energy conservation

management and service system Issued technical guidance for energy conservation Developed and enforced series of energy conservation

standards Initiated national energy conservation programs

Achievement in energy efficiency Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7% from 1980 to

2000, energy consumption increased 3.9% annually Kept the energy consumption elasticity coefficient around

0.5 from 1980 to 2000, Energy intensity decreased more than 5% annually in the

same period, (1.1% in average for the world) More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved

Action in renewables By the end of 2000 ， small and mini hydro up to

23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh Widely use of solar heaters all over the country Development of PV, especially for power supply

in remote areas

Future development The elasticity of industrial energy consumption can be obviously less

than that of other sectors, especially in the energy-intensive industries Substantial progress could be made in optimizing energy mix through

speeding-up the development of natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and full utilization of the international oil & gas resources

Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will promote energy efficiency improvement, reduce energy demand and improve energy supply security

Environmental issue will play a more and more important role in China’s future energy development

The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated by strengthening the enforcement of sustainable energy strategy