Rural China: After 30 Years’ ReformRural China: After 30 Years’ Reform----Challenges to Sustainable ----Challenges to Sustainable

Development of ChinaDevelopment of China

Zuo Ting, ProfessorZuo Ting, ProfessorDepartment of Development ManagementDepartment of Development ManagementCollege of Humanities and DevelopmentCollege of Humanities and Development

China Agricultural UniversityChina Agricultural University

Introduction to CAUIntroduction to CAU

College of Humanities and development at CAU College of Humanities and development at CAU is the leading organization in China to provide is the leading organization in China to provide education, research and consultation on rural education, research and consultation on rural development studies. Research Areas are:development studies. Research Areas are:– Poverty reduction and sustainable livelihood, Poverty reduction and sustainable livelihood, – Community based natural resource management, Community based natural resource management, – Farmer-centered research and technology Farmer-centered research and technology

development, development, – Gender and development, Gender and development, – Agricultural innovations and extension, Agricultural innovations and extension, – Rural governance and rural development policy, Rural governance and rural development policy, – Social capital, community based organization Social capital, community based organization

Content of PresentationContent of Presentation

History ReviewHistory Review

Bottlenecks of rural development in ChinaBottlenecks of rural development in China

Future ScenarioFuture Scenario

Thirty Years Reform & Thirty Years Reform & Development Since 1978Development Since 1978

Since 1978, China have launched Since 1978, China have launched economic reform which started from economic reform which started from rural /agricultural sector, and entered an rural /agricultural sector, and entered an Era of TransitionEra of Transition (rapid development and (rapid development and reform). reform).

Milestones of Rural Policy EvolutionMilestones of Rural Policy Evolution 1978 Launched reformed policy in the 3rd CC Plenary Meeting of CPC.1978 Launched reformed policy in the 3rd CC Plenary Meeting of CPC.1982 Confirmed household responsibility policy and end-up of Commune 1982 Confirmed household responsibility policy and end-up of Commune 1982 Strengthened Family Planning Policy1982 Strengthened Family Planning Policy1983 Deng’s talk allowing part of people being rich first1983 Deng’s talk allowing part of people being rich first1984 Confirmed support to TVEs (township and village enterprises)1984 Confirmed support to TVEs (township and village enterprises)1986 Set up of Poverty Alleviation Office under State Council1986 Set up of Poverty Alleviation Office under State Council1991 Deng’s talk on speeding-up economic reform1991 Deng’s talk on speeding-up economic reform1994 Formally implemented the Village Organic (autonomy)Law1994 Formally implemented the Village Organic (autonomy)Law1997 Yangtse Flood and following-up national ecological programs1997 Yangtse Flood and following-up national ecological programs2000 Launched West Development Policies to mediate east-west gap2000 Launched West Development Policies to mediate east-west gap2001 Been member of WTO2001 Been member of WTO2003 New Rural Cooperative Medical Policy implemented after SARS2003 New Rural Cooperative Medical Policy implemented after SARS2003 Launched Grain Subsidy Polices2003 Launched Grain Subsidy Polices2005 Terminated Agriculture Tax, in parallel, the increased merging of 2005 Terminated Agriculture Tax, in parallel, the increased merging of

townships, and proposed new countryside developmenttownships, and proposed new countryside development2006 Proposed policy support to migrated labor from rural2006 Proposed policy support to migrated labor from rural2007 Promulgated law of cooperatives, and policy on rural minimum living 2007 Promulgated law of cooperatives, and policy on rural minimum living

standardstandard

GDP from AgricultureGDP from Agriculture

Unit: 100 Million CNYUnit: 100 Million CNY

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Income of rural people Income of rural people in contrast to urban peoplein contrast to urban people

Unit: CNYUnit: CNY

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1978

1980

1985

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入 农村居民家庭人均纯收入

HoweverHowever

the the Era of TransitionEra of Transition is not yet finished, is not yet finished, today’s rural China seems to face an today’s rural China seems to face an impasseimpasse for further development/reform. for further development/reform.– BottleneckBottleneck– DirectionDirection

Bottlenecks of “Transition” of Rural Bottlenecks of “Transition” of Rural ChinaChina

Poverty and InequalityPoverty and InequalityLoss of Community Nature of Rural Village Loss of Community Nature of Rural Village Agriculture (reduced importance as family Agriculture (reduced importance as family income, but a public/state interest), for income, but a public/state interest), for what?what?Impasse of Land Tenure (privatisation vs Impasse of Land Tenure (privatisation vs collective owned)collective owned)Political Conflicts in Rural GovernancePolitical Conflicts in Rural GovernanceResource and Environment Sustainability Resource and Environment Sustainability

Rural Poverty and InequalityRural Poverty and Inequality

Reduced absolute poverty (small size), Reduced absolute poverty (small size), increased relative poverty (large size)increased relative poverty (large size)– Debate on poverty lineDebate on poverty line

Increased inequality among regions, rural-urbanIncreased inequality among regions, rural-urban

In general, “rural” still implies “poor”. Rural In general, “rural” still implies “poor”. Rural people shares less bonus (or even bares more people shares less bonus (or even bares more loss) of development and reform, which loss) of development and reform, which challenges its ligitimacy. challenges its ligitimacy.

Population of PoorPopulation of PoorFrom 250 million in 1978 to 14.8 million in From 250 million in 1978 to 14.8 million in 20072007

Unit: % Unit: %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1978

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

中国官方贫困线 PPP1美元标准

““Erosion” of Erosion” of Community NatureCommunity Nature of of Rural VillageRural Village

Unique rural-urban migration in China Unique rural-urban migration in China (young labor left) which results in (young labor left) which results in disorganization of rural community:disorganization of rural community:– Culture identity, collective action, etc.Culture identity, collective action, etc.– Issues of elites leaving and vulnerable group Issues of elites leaving and vulnerable group

left-behind left-behind

Agriculture for What?Agriculture for What?

Agriculture as source of family income becomes less Agriculture as source of family income becomes less profitable due to uneconomic of land scale and compared profitable due to uneconomic of land scale and compared to off-farm income.to off-farm income.

It is still important to poor, which is not focus of agriculture It is still important to poor, which is not focus of agriculture policy. policy.

But, It is always a state/public concern/interest of food But, It is always a state/public concern/interest of food security/safety issue. security/safety issue.

Underestimated the social, environmental as well as long-Underestimated the social, environmental as well as long-run economic cost of (modern) agricultural development.run economic cost of (modern) agricultural development.

Collective Land Tenure Collective Land Tenure (privatisation vs collective owned)(privatisation vs collective owned)Incomplete property rights to collective members Incomplete property rights to collective members (guaranty, sell, etc.), (guaranty, sell, etc.), less incentives of investment less incentives of investment

instability of household contract policy in terms instability of household contract policy in terms of village community transition (people mobility, of village community transition (people mobility, demographic change, urbanization) demographic change, urbanization) Protection of peasants rights in the process of Protection of peasants rights in the process of expropriation of land from collective owned expropriation of land from collective owned agriculture land to state owned commercial landagriculture land to state owned commercial landUncertainty of future (contract right vs property Uncertainty of future (contract right vs property right)right)

Resource and Environment Resource and Environment SustainabilitySustainability

– Pollution from intensity of agriculture, Pollution from intensity of agriculture, – Resource depletion (land, water, forest, Resource depletion (land, water, forest,

grassland), grassland), – Fragmentation of land and ecosystemFragmentation of land and ecosystem– Loss of agrobiodiversityLoss of agrobiodiversity– Artificial intervention/building of ecosystemArtificial intervention/building of ecosystem

Rural GovernanceRural Governance

Lack of group representation/interest Lack of group representation/interest appealing of rural people in national appealing of rural people in national politics;politics;Capacity building and enabling support to Capacity building and enabling support to village autonomy/local government body;village autonomy/local government body;

Centralized governance structure results Centralized governance structure results in policy failure/lower effectivenessin policy failure/lower effectivenessAccountability of local governmentsAccountability of local governments

Future Scenario of rural Future Scenario of rural development… development…

Depends on both political wills and policy Depends on both political wills and policy instruments of government to address issue of instruments of government to address issue of “dual system” “dual system” – Radical or incremental?Radical or incremental?– Priority setting?Priority setting?– Development Approaches?Development Approaches?

In context of In context of – Globalization (in both economic and environment Globalization (in both economic and environment

dimension)dimension)– Increasing appealing of different interest groups Increasing appealing of different interest groups – Reduced resource consumption/degradationReduced resource consumption/degradation

Thank You!Thank You!