electricity in the philippines: concentration, not competition by maitet diokno-pascual presented at...
TRANSCRIPT
Electricity in the Philippines:Concentration, not Competition
by Maitet Diokno-Pascual
Presented at the ACF-FES Conference on“ENERGY SECURITY: Reshaping Policy Options for the
Asian Region and the Philippines,”January 31, 2012, Subic Bay, Zambales, Philippines
PH Electricity Sector vis-à-vis Asia
Production (in billion kWh)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
27 9 33
836 621
61 73 149
1,040
3,457
1990 2008
Consumption (kWh per capita)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
376 98 162
6,486
511 588 799 591
8,071
2,455
1990 2008Source: Asian Development Bank
PH Electricity Rates vis-à-vis Asia
South
Korea
Singap
oreChin
aInd
ia
Indon
esia
Vietnam
Thailan
d
Malaysi
a
Philipp
ines
Japa
n0
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.22
9.57
7.39 8.70
4.35 5.22
4.35 5.22
11.30 10.43
Electricity Rate (US cents / kWh)
Source: JETRO, March 2006, cited in http://www.doe.gov.ph/e%20summit/presentation/Energy%20Conservation%20-%20Nagayama.pdf
View of Southeast Asia Night Sky
In 1992 … … and in 2009 (17 years later)
Not much progress for the Philippines. It’s classified as dark night light for a country with a large population density. Source: ADB
Electricity not for AllHouseholds without access to electricity, 2002 and 2008
Percent of FamiliesNumber of Families
(‘000)
2002 2008 2002 2008
All Families 20.3 16.1 n.a. 2,908
Lowest 30% 49.5 36.2 n.a. 1,962
Highest 70% 8.8 7.5 n.a. 948
Source: National Statistics Office, Annual Poverty Indicators Survey, 2002 and 2008
My Points Exactly
• Philippine electricity sector too small to subject to costly reforms
• Especially when access to electricity is not enjoyed by all, especially the poor and/or those in the rural areas
• Rather than bring the electricity sector forward in terms of more affordable and more reliable electricity, the EPIRA is making concentration the main driving force in the sector
Concentration of DemandLuzon (Meralco franchise area)
rest of Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao
Source: Philippine Electricity Market Corporation (PEMC)
Luzon Market Concentration
Source: Philippine Electricity Market Corporation
Concentration of Cross-Ownership
• Big Three Players– Lopez: distribution (LV), generation (LVM)– Aboitiz: distribution (VM), generation (LVM)– San Miguel Group: generation (L), transmission
(LVM)• Emerging Players– Manny Pangilinan: distribution (Meralco)– Henry Sy Jr: transmission
• Suspected Silent Player: Mike ArroyoL – Luzon; V – Visayas; M – Mindanao
Concentration of Generation, Luzon
Lopez Aboitiz San Miguel NPC
Privatized NPC/PNOC plants 262 1,275 655IPPs 1,596IPPA contracted capacity 700 2,545
TOTAL, in MW (10,931 in 2010) 1,858 1,975 3,200 1,863 % of total installed capacity in Luzon 16.99% 18.07% 29.28% 17.06%Share in 2004 (total cap 12,162MW) 16.47% 0.78% 0.00% 80.9%EPIRA prescribed limit within a grid 30%
Sources: UP National Engineering Center, “Philippine Electric Power Industry Market and Policy Assessment,” May 2011; Department of Energy, Power Statistics 2004
Implications for RE Development
• RE development in the Philippines is following the same track as conventional electricity under the EPIRA framework
• This is unfortunate because RE development could be an opportunity to push for the development of– Sustainable energy utilities– Devolved, decentralized utilities– Greater community and consumer participation
• In short, democratization of the electricity sector
Maraming salamat po!