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Eindhoven University of Technology

MASTER

Small hydro power : two project evaluations in Indonesia

van Berkel, M.

Award date:1989

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small hydro power

two project evaluations in lndonesia

Martin van Berkel, Februari 1989

SHP penstock and powerhouse in Koto Anau, West-Sumatra, lndonesia

preface

The development of new and renewable sourees of energy has become a matter of priority in many developing countries. In particular, development of Small Hydro Power (SHP) generation sites is thought to be an interesting option in providing energy for industrial and economie development in a rural setting.

In 1987, Bert de Bruin conducted research on socio-economie impacts of SHP. As a trainee in the United Nations lndustrial Development Organization (UNIDO), he described a methodology to find such impacts. This report is a continuatien of his work and part of my M.Sc. research at Eindhoven Univarsity of Technology, the Netherlands.

In 1988, with assistance of UNIDO staff members, I visited two SHP projects in lndonesia. In the evaluation of these projects, emphasis is on the social and economie impacts. Although in lndonesia other fuel sourees are optional, in data collection, analysis and recommendations, I confined myself to small hydro power.

A preface is the place to thank persons who assisted in getting things done. With appreciation for all the others, I will restriet myself to my supervisors at university, Chris Bertholet and Paul Lapperre, and all the people in lndonesia, who helped making my research successful. Their help and encouragement exceeded my expectations. A special place is dedicated to Eddy Mawardi, my interpreter. He assisted and stimulated me and became the example of cherished lndonesian memories.

Eddy: • jauh di mata, dekat di hati! •

Martin van Berkel, Februari 1989

i i

part A

part B

part C

introduetion

This thesis Is the result of close co-operation with:

o the CICA lnstitute (Centre for International Co-operation Activities) at Eindhoven Univarsity of Technology, Eindhoven, the Nether1ands.

o UNIDO (United Nations lndustrial Development Organization), Vienna, Austria.

o PLN-LMK (State electricity corporatien - Electric power research centre), Jakarta, lndonesia.

o PLN-Wilayah 111 (State electricity corporatien- Regional office for West-Sumatra and Jambi), Padang, lndonesia.

lt consists of three parts.

The first part, results and recommendations, deals with the actual evaluation. The impacts of small hydro power are presented, which, when compared with the aims of the parties involved, lead to recommendations In chapter 3. The methodological design of this research asks tor an evaluation too, which fellows In chapter 4. Personal conclusions wind up this part In chapter 5.

Part B, the methodology, highlights the methodology based on Bert de Bruin's work [de Bruin, 1988]. A excellent guideline is chapter 1, where its structure is shown. In the following chapters I will arrive at possible impacts of SHP introduetion and the aims of the parties involved in SHP. Some preliminary measures to imprave these impacts are presented in chapter 4. For an evaluation, data have to be collected. Chapter 5 deals with the method of data collection.

The final part, part C, case studies, first presents the various steps taken in lndonesia to collect the appropriate information. lt starts withareview of SHP development in lndonesia, which is foliowed by the site selection. Actual data collection, most important part of the fieldwork period, Is described in chapter 3.

iii

Now only data analysis remains to be discussed. Chapter 4 of part C deals with this subject, which in this report seems small, compared to the time I spent at university, analyzing and computing.

Chapters B6, C5 and A5 are the summary of this report. Readers not too much Interestad in methodological issues or methods of analysis can confine themselves In reading Part A. On the other hand, this rastrains them trom sharing my various experiences. lsn't it true that he that wants to have eggs, must endure the cackling of hens?

PLN-LMK (electric power research centre) sign in Jakarta

iv

table of contents ( concise)

part A results and recommendations

page chapter

2 1 Research background 5 2 Impacts of SHP

20 3 Recommendations 35 4 Evaluation of the methodology 38 5 Conclusions

part B methodology

40 1 Methodological structure 41 2 Impacts of SHP 45 3 Aims of parties involved in SHP 49 4 Possible measures 52 5 Method of data colleetien 54 6 Summary

part C case studies

56 1 SHP in lndonesia 60 2 Site selection 62 3 Data colleetien 68 4 Data analysis 86 5 Summary

appendix A technology description

appendix B questionnaires

appendix C variables

appendix D literature

V

table of contents (complete)

page chapter

ii Preface iii Introduetion V Table of contents (concise) vi Table of contents (complete) ix List of tables x i List of abbreviations

part A results and recommendations

2 1 Research background 2 1.1 Energy for development 3 1.2 Role of small hydro power 3 1.3 SHP impact evalustion

5 2 Impacts of SHP 5 2.1 General characteristics 9 2.2 Uses of electricity

13 2.3 Househeld sample data 16 First conclusions 18 General conclusions 18 The impact matrix

20 3 Recommendations 23 3.1 Recommendations per appliance group 23 Agrarian sector 24 lndustrial sector 28 Services sector 29 Public consumption 30 Private consumption 31 3.2 Migration 32 3.3 lncome distribution 32 3.4 lmproving the efficiency of SHP

35 4 Evalustion of the methodology 38 5 Conclusions

vi

part B methodology

page chapter

40 1 Methodological structure 41 2 Impacts of SHP 45 3 Aims of parties involved in SHP 45 3.1 Development co-operation bodies 46 3.2 Governmental bodies 47 3.3 Local entrepreneurs 47 3.4 Rural popuiatien

49 4 Possible measures 52 5 Method of data colleetien 54 6 Summary

part C case studies

56 SHP in lndonesia 56 1.1 National electrification programme 57 1.2 Planning, construction and eperation 58 1.3 Role of small hydro power

60 2 Site selection 62 3 Data colleetien 62 3.1 Planning 63 3.2 Official data 63 3.3 Observation 64 3.4 Surveys 64 Study variables 65 Sample design 66 Questionnaires 66 3.5 Key informants 67 3.6 Operatien

68 4 Data analysis 68 4.1 Official data 68 BPS and village headmen 70 PLN data 75 4.2 Househeld survey 75 Chi-square test measures of association 76 Other measures of association 79 Sample variables 83 4.3 Key informants 83 4.4 Validity and reliability

86 5 Summary

vii

appendix A

appendix B

appendix C

appendix D

1 2 2 3

2 3 5 6 8

12 15

17 20

technology description

A B c D

Description Run-oft-river schemes Reservoir schemes lnvestment costs

questionnaires

A B c D E F G

General information Electricity conneetion Electrical appliances Employment and income Contactsjparticipation Migration Interviewer report

Codebook Questions tor people without electricity conneetion

variables

literature

viii

list of tables

page 5 table A1 Map of the Koto Anau anc:l Salido Kecil areas 6 table A2 Project description Koto Anau 7 table A3 Project description Salido Kecil 8 table A4 Consumer prices 8 table A5 lnstitutional factors 9 table A6 Uses of SHP

15 table A7 Significant gamma relations rasuiting from the first question

15 table A8 Significant gamma relations rasuiting from the second question

19 table A9 SHP impact matrix 21 table A10 SHP evaluation matrix 22 table A11 aims and their realization for each of the parties

involved in SHP 24 table A12 Cost savings through use of chicken incubator 26 table A13 Expected cost savings through the use of

electric rice-hullers 28 table A14 lnc:lonesian credit schemes 29 table A15 Possibilities for use of electricity in shops 30 table A16 Rural household's cost savings though the use

of electric light 33 table A17 Rural load profile (electricity consumption as a

percentage of capacity for every hour of a typical day)

34 table A18 Unused capacity for a 120 kW generator and a load-factor of 20% for every hour of one typical day.

40 table 81 Methodological structure 41 table 82 Uses of SHP 43 table 82 SHP impact matrix 44 table 83 Theoretica! variables and their relations rasuiting

from the first question 44 table 84 Theoretica! variables and their relations rasuiting

from the second question 48 table 85 SHP aims matrix

ix

table C1 Breakdown of hydra power potentlal by island in lndonesia

61 table C2 List of existing srnall hydra power projects in lndonesia

69 table C3 Koto Anau and Salido Kecil village characteristics

70 table C4 Cost factors for financlal appraisal of SHP village electrification

72 table C5 Electricity prices in the different tariff categories 73 table C6 Number of electricity connections in Koto Anau

and Salido Kecil 73 table C7 Rural load profile (electricity consumption as a

percentage of capacity for every hour of one typical day)

74 table ca Monthly electricity production and laad-factors of the Koto Anau SHP generator

75 table C9 Contingency table for Education vs. Electricity conneetion

79 table C10 Answer categories for the variables and the number of respondents in each category

80 table C11 Gamma coefficients for the variables in Table B4 in Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK)

80 table C12 Gamma coefficients for the variables in Table 65 in Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK)

81 table C13 Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients resulting from question 2 in Koto A na u

81 table C14 Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients resulting from question 2 in Salido Kecil

82 table C15 Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients resulting from question 1 in Koto A na u

82 table C16 Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients resulting from question 1 in Salido Kecil

x

list of abbreviations

BAKOREN

BPS BRI CICA

GJ KA KAN KLP KUD kW kWh LKMD LMK MJ MW PKK PLN PPL SK RN-SHP Rp s.e. SHP UNDP UNI DO

lndonesian national electricity co-ordination board lndonesian national office for statistics National bank of lndonesia Eindhoven univarsity Centre for International Co-operation Activities Giga-Joule (109 joule) Koto Anau Traditionallaw office Village electricity credit Village-unit co-operation Kilo-Watt (103 watt) Kilo-Watt hour lnstitute for resistance of the village community PLN electricity ~ower research centre Mega-Joule (10 joule) Mega-Watt (108 watt) Village women co-operation lndonesian state electricity corporatien Rural agricultural extension worker Salido Kecil Regionar Network of SHP Rupiah (Rp. 1660 = US$ 1) Standard error Small Hydro Power United Nations Development Programme United Nations lildustrial Development Organization

x i

part A

chapter A1

1.1 energy for development

research background

Since the seventies, development policies in many third world countries more and more focussed on decentralization of development. Concentratien of industrial activities near large cities led to unwanted concentratien of popuiatien and marginalization of the rural community. The problems of concentratien started surpassing the benefits. A fresh focus on rural development and decentralization appeared to be an alternative remedy. Rural industries should supply basic needs goeds suitable to local market conditions and provide local investment opportunities.

The access to energy sourees is eensielered to be a cruciai element in development. Energy consumption rises when development is achieved and a larger production requires availability of the production factors, energy being one of them.

Energy can be found in many farms. In general one can divide energy sourees into two main groups: non-renewable (such as fossil fuels) and renewable (such as solar energy, biomass, wind energy and hydropower). When a developing country owns sourees of non-renewable energy, the possibility of development of renewable energy-sources offers the opportunity to export the fossil fuels and attain foreign currency. lf no non-renewable energy sourees are availabie, foreign currency, being scarce and costly, is tobespend to obtain the energy required. In bath cases the deveiopment of renewable energy sources, when compatible, will be an important development goal.

part A I research background 2

1.2 role of small hydra power

1.3 shp impact evaluation

As lndlcated in the report of the United Natlans lndustrial Development Organization (UNIDO) meeting on Energy and lndustrialization [UNIDO, 1983), the development of energy sourees in developing countries is a subject of special attention in UNIDO. New and renewable energy sourees can farm an important contribution to self sufficiency of developing countries in their energy provision. Especially in the case of energy production for rural areas, "hydropower is a primary option".

lt Is estimated that the world's hydrapower capacity accounts tor some 2.2 million MW .. As an indication, that potentlal represents more than eight 60 Watt lightbulbs tor each person of the world population. Only 13.6 percent of the hydrapower potentlal has been developed, especially in the industrialized countries. lt is obvious that notall potentlal hydrapower can be developed or used competitively, but still it can offer a considerable contribution to the world's energy necessities.

In the case of energy provision for rural areas in third world countries, the introduetion of Srnall Hydra Power (SHP) generation must be taken into serious consideration (tor an explanation and definition of SHP see Appendix A). Since the development of SHP potentlal in third world countries is a relatively new item, the UNIDO and the Transfer of Technology Programme Branch in particular, deeldeel to concentrata assistance in one world region. In South-East Asla the establishment of the Regional Network for Small Hydra Power (RN-SHP) is one of the achlevements, intending to carry out specific actlvities In the field of training, research and development, inforrnation and consultancy services. Since 1987, eighteen South-East Asian countries partlcipate in the RN-SHP.

So far, little effort has been dedicated to evaluation and assessment of SHP projects. Evaluating SHP projects on an economie basis only is generally thought to be unsatisfactory. That is because rural development aims, for example to establish confidence in local problem solving or to decrease deforestation, for a considerable part are non economie. lt is evident that taking into consideration the numerous intangible impacts is no easy task. Furthermore, the catalytic role of the development of rural energy sourees In stimulating rural development in general is questioned.


Research questions

Therefore one of the objectives of the RN-SHP programme is to investigate and develop socio-economie evaluations of SHP development. In that field, from April to October 1987, Bert de Bruin conducted research in a UNIDO assignment. lnitially he was to make an inventory of socio-economie impact studies that were available. He found out that appropriate studies were hardly carried out so far (most of the studies were merely of a descriptive nature and had the intention to obtain finance). In co-operation with UNIDO staff, he decided to try to develop a methodology as a basis for socio-economie assessment of SHP projects [de Bruin, 1988). lt focusses on productive development, being the main target of UNIDO policy.

The socio-economie impact evaluation of two SHP projects in lndonesia is an implementation of that methodology, carried out to evaluate it and to collect information about actual socioeconomie impacts. The most important questions, to be answered through data collection, are:

0 What is the Impact of Small Hydro Power on rural productive capacity and social aspectsof the rural community? (see Chapter A2) How can that impact be improved? (see Chapter A3) 0

0 Is the methodology, described in Part B, appropriate for answering these questions? (see Chapter A4)

After careful consideration in co-operation with UNIDO staff, the choice was made to carry out the case studies in lndonesia. Although several options were suggested, politica!, cultural and historica! aspects indicated that lndonesia was the most suitable option. Of special consideration in that selection was the availability of a co-operative counterpart in Jakarta and the close relationship between lndonesia and the Netherlands in generaL

Part A of this report is especially written for UNI DO staff and can be used separately. A report of preliminary results was presented in June 1988 at the RN-SHP workshop in Fiji.


chapter A2

2.1 general characteristics

impacts of small hydra power

Site selection in PLN (lndonesian national electricity corporation) offices in Jakarta and Padang, effered two SHP projects in West-Sumatra, Koto Anau and Salido Kecil (see Chapter C2). Befere describing the impacts, general project characteristics and backgrounds wiJl be presented in the following tables:

Table A1: Table A2: Table A3: Table A4: Table AS:

Map of the Koto Anau and Salido Kecil area. Project description Koto Anau. Project description Salido Kecil. Consumer prices lnstitutional factors.

table A 1: Map of the Koto Anau and Salido Kecil areas.

part A 1 impacts of shp 5

table A2: Project description Koto Anau.

Number of lnhabitants Number of households

Anla descrlption

Technica/ featutes

Electrlcity output Electrlcity consumption

Supply probieros

Conneetion tate

Turbine

4055 711

(See map in Tabie A3). Koto Anau is situated 17 kilometres from the sub-province capital Soiok, where the trans-Surnatra high-road passes. From Solok to the provincial capital Padang it is 58 kilometres, which takes one hour by bus. The Koto Anau area is densely populated and cultivated.

Turbine: Fast Francis Dam: In existing irrigation canal, which stretches about 40 metre trom

the intake to the penstock. Penstock: Height: 23 metre

The Koto Anau SHP generator started operation in 1978 and supplied village electricity until 1987, when the village was connected to the West-Sumatra provincial grid.

120kW Average load-factor (1984-1987): 17.3%

During SHP operation, many technica! difficulties occurred. That caused several periods without eiectricity supply. Most important difficulty was that repair and malntenance staff was based in Jakarta.

48.4% (344 connections in March 1988)

KDJ.o Anau dam and weir

part A I impacts of shp 6

table A3: Project description Saliclo Keen.

Number of inhabltants Number of households

AlN tiescription

Technica/ features

Electrieity output Electricity consumption

Supp/y probieros

Conneetion rate

Sa/ido KBCII turbines

1786 301

(See map Table A3). Salldo Kecills situated 13 kilometres from the sub-province capita! Painan and 108 kilometres from the provincial capita! Padang. To get there it takes 2.5 hours by bus. lt Is very isolated, because the road to the main road is poor and after the village there is nothing but jungle. The area is poorly cultivated, because lrrigation facilities for the rice-fields are insufficient.

Turbine: Pelton (3 units) Dam: Stretchesabout 3 kilometres trom Intake to penstock, passes

three aqueducts and is built in the thirties by Dutch colonialists. Penstock: Helght: 120 metre

The Salido Kecil SHP generator started eperating in 1932, but after 1948 did nottunetion until 1981, when a private entrepreneur restored the machines and in ~led co-operation with the village community started electricity generation and an ice-factory.

3*250kW Estimated load-factor: 25 % No exact figures exist but in spite of the factory's electricity consumption, the load-factor is low because of technica! problems. Electricity distribution Is organized by the PLN. Over-production Is sold for US$ .001/kWh to the PLN.

Since technical equlpment is very old, reliability Is low. Repair and malntenance staff works in the factory and staff-members have to make spare-parts themselves. Usually one of the turbines operatea and the other two suffer from technical difficulties.

20.6 % (62 connections in April 1988)

Damandweir

part A 1 Impacts of shp 7

table A4: Consumer prices.

Conneetion price

Village electricity credit

Monthly charges

Prices of other fuels

table A5: lnstitutional factors.

All households in both villages have a standard housing connection:

Capacity: Voltage: Price: lncluded:

450W 220 V (50Hz) US$ 52.83 Fusebox Circuit breaker Three connections tor electrio lamp Two small soekets Wiring in the house

Maximal grid distance: 30 metre

In some villages, households have the opportunity to use the village electricity credit (KLP), which is granted by the PLN in co-operation with the lndonesian national bank (BRI).

Breakdown and conditions are as follows:

Distribution system: House wiring and installation:

lnsurance premium: Total price:

Interest ra te: Grace period: Repayment period:

US$ 18.-

US$ 20.50 US$ 1.-US$ 39.50

6% per annum one month 4 years (monthly payment)

Demand charge: US$ 1.26 I kW

.o2s 1 kWh (tor a 450 W conneetion US$ .57)

Energy tariff: US$

Diesel: US$ .12 1 litre Premium gasoline: US$ .23 I litre Fuel-oil: US$ .12 1 litre Fuel-wood: US$ .18 1 pile (one pile is about .2 m3 and on the average is needed tor two days cooking)

Koto Anau Ownership: PLN. Staff:

Salido Kecil Ownership:

Staff:

part A I impacts of shp

One administrator. Repair and maintenance by the local operator and the PLN project office in Jakarta. Village co-operation (tormally). Actually the generator is owned by a private entrepreneur, who can make profits and investment independently. 9 persons for the SHP generator and ice-tactory together. Electricity supply is operated by PLN ranting Painan.

8

2.2 uses of electricity

1. Agriculture

2. Animal husbandry

3. Production of production goods

table A6: Uses of SHP.

Talkingabout electricity in the lndonesian context, the idea that its concept is unknown to the rural population, is wrong. For many decades people have been acquainted to applications of electricity. So Introduetion of electricity implicates no problems for Introduetion of various appliances. In the different categories (Table A6, for explanation see Chapter 82), the different applications of electricity in both sample villages will now be described.

No applications

bird Incubator (only observed in Koto Anau)

Frequency: Around 15 machines are installed. Description: A wooden, isolated cupboard, which is kept at

a constant temperature of 104 °C by three light bulbs of 40 Watt each. lnside around 180 eggs of small birds can be hatched.

Advantage: Befare introduction, one litre fuel-oil a day had to be used for this machine. Now energy expenses can be reduced to 37%.

Disadvantage: Application is only possible when electricity is supplied 24 hours a day. In case of electricity breakdown, instantaneously oil lamps have to be installed. Furthermore, bird hatching demands special skills, for example because of possible diseases.

No applications

A. Production: -Agrarian 1. Agriculture 2. Animal husbandry

-lndustrial 3. Production goods 4. Consumption goods

-Services 5. Transport 6. Communication 7. Health

B. Consumption: -Public 8. Water facilities 9. Public lighting

-Private 10. Private lighting 11. Cooling 12. Cooking 13. Other appliances

C. Overall 14. Overall impacts of SHP


4. Production of consumption goeds

5. Transport

6. Communication

blender (only observed in Salido Kecil)

Frequency: Description:

Cernment

coconut mill

Around 4 units are installed. The blender Is used to process chili peppers and rice. Only for private consumption.

Frequency: Koto Anau: around 7. Salido Kecil: around 5.

Description: Used to extract and mill coconut flesh to be used in food preparation.

Price: around US$ 45.-An average shop-keeper mills around 30 coconuts a day and charges US$ .015 per cocon ut.

Advantage: Saves a lot of time and increases income of shop-keepers.

ice-factory (in Salido Kecil)

Descriptlon: lee is produced with conventional technology and needs around 80 kW for maximal production. On the average 50 bars of 40 litres each are produced every day and can be sold for US$ .90. No achlevement figures were available, but the lee selling business is a goed business, especially when electricity is free (SHP generator is part of the factory) and competition is scarce.

No applications

sound amplification in mosques

Frequency: In both villages every mosque has an amplifier system (for the number of mosques see Table C3).

Description: In West-Sumatra more than 90% of the popuiatien is moslem. In this religion it is very important that the people pray in time every day. The amplifier system Is a means to notify the villagers and to stimulate them by sounding prayers in the village.

part A I Impacts of shp 10

7. Health

8. Water facilities

9. Public lighting

1 0. Private lighting

11. Cooling

Use of refrigerator in government health centre for cooling medicine.

No applications

Frequency: Koto Anau: Main road and three secondary roads have public lighting.

Salido Kecil: Only maln road has public lighting.

Description: Public lights are attached to the electricity distribution lines. Repair and maintenance is done by the villagers that live near the lights. People in the street also pay for the electricity used, which is charged with a special tariff. Price tor one kWh Is US$ .046.

· Frequency: All people with an electricity conneetion use electricity for lights. In each household three or more connections for electric lamps are provlded. Most people use one 20 Watt lamp during the night-time for safety and convenianee reasons.

Advantage: Among people without an electricity conneetion I lnvestigated the use of fuel-oil for lighting. Conclusion is that average households use one litre fuel-oil a day. That is suftielent for two ordinary oil-lamps or one high-eapacity oUlamp during the evening time (around 5 hours). For the prlce of one litre of fuel-oil, people with an electricity conneetion can pay the fixed monthly tariff and use 2.4 kWh every day. That is enough for 200 Watt of lights tor 12 hours. Additional overall benefits are achieved, because the night-time can be shortened. Families are more likely to do housework,

refrigerator

Frequency:

cook and eat during non-daylight hours under electric lights. This implicates a shorter sleeptime, which might cause a decrease in population growth (by the way an often heard but suggestive and not proven impact) and additional productive time during the daylight period.

Koto Anau: A refrigerator was owned by 6.25% of the households in the village sample. That percentage might be


12. Cooking

13. Other applications (with sample figures)

somewhat lower in reality. Frequency: Salido Kecil: In the village sample, no

people were interviawed that owned a refrigerator. In reality a tew people (2 out of 62) have one, which is 3.2 %.

Description: Good quality refrigerators areforsale in town and on the average cost US$ 240.-. The only thing people use a refrigerator tor is making lee to sell to children, in the shop or at school. Other applications, like food conservation, are not thought to be useful.

No applications

radio I tape

Frequency: Koto Anau: 70.8% Salldo Kecil: 70.0%

Description: Many households own a tape or radio/tape combination. A radio without tape-recorder is not used frequently. Only tew people listen radio braadcastings. Listening tapes is very popular, especially among young people.

Disadvantage: In many cases the quality of the radloftape set is poor. Especially tape-recorder sets suffer trom technica! difficulties and repair is relatively expensive.

television

Frequency: Koto Anau: 72.9% Salido Kecil: 33.3%

Description: Looking at telavision as entertainment is widespread. From 17:00pm until around 23:30pm the lndonesian national braadcasting service braadcasts several programs. The news and the late evening film-series are most popular. People that do not own a telavision set can look village telavision (in the street) or visit other households or bars. Absolute radloftape set and telavision prices do not ditter significantly trom prices in Europe.

Disadvantage: Especially in Salido Kecil braadcasting quality is very poor.


2.3 househeld sample data

iron

Frequency: Koto Anau: 64.6% Salido Kecil: 50.0%

Description: The use of an Iron is frequently observed, because irons are relatively cheap and save a lot of time compared to traditional ironing.

Except for 3 mixers in Koto Anau, no other electric appliances were observed.

Knowing all the uses, the impacts of the applications must be identified. First the concept "impact" needs some explanation. Introduetion of a new technology (innovation) effects the human environment. This effect can be divided into many different and distinct items, called impacts. In this study, I concentrata on social and economie impacts. As became clear in Chapter 2.2, most (important) applications were traeed in the private consumption sector. To colteet more precise intermation about the impacts of electricity use, households in both Koto Anau and Salido Kecil were interviewed. Households, because it was obvious that most of the impacts could be found in the private consumption sector. Some of the impacts that were listed intheimpact matrix (see Table 83) and that might occur through private electricity consumption needed extra investigation.

First thing to be examined was the difference in characteristics between users and non-users of electricity. Did people with an electricity conneetion have a higher lncome? Did they have better education? Were they more important in the village? Did they have a better house? Did people trom these households less often move to the town? etc .. Formulated in a single question:

What are the social and economie ditterences between users and non-users of electriclty?

All these variables had to be measured in the househeld questionnaires (see Appendix B) and their relationships had to be determined. The variables wiJl be discussed briefly one by one (tor more detail see Appendix C):

Education: calculated as the highest level of education in the househeld (score between 0 and 5) multiplied with


the percentage of people that cannot read or write. lncome: people were asked how much they earned on

average in one week. Thls money excluded material benefits, like rice production for own consumption. A more accurate determination of househeld income would require a separate questionnaire and confront the interviewer with even more suspicion and hostility. The operationalization used, oftered and appropriate insight in househeld possibilities to spend money on other things than food.

Quality of house: lncludes size, materials used and water and toilet facilities.

Migration: lndicates the flexibility of househeld membars to move to other places for permanent settiement

Contacts outside the village: gives an indication of the frequency people visit the provincial capital and other lslands in lndonesia.

Participation: indicates participation in village meetings and awareness and membarship of village co-operations or organizations.

Relations between these variables were assumed. After analyzing the questionnaire data, these relations were measured, using Goodman and Kruskal's Gamma coefficient (see Chapter C4). This coefficient datermlnes the relation between two variables and can take values from -1 to + 1. Gamma stands for the probability that, after randomly selecting one househeld from the sample, any second househeld scores either higher or lower on both variables. A relation is thought significant when the Gamma coefficient is larger than .30 positive or negative (see Table A7).

The second class of variables to be investigated through the househeld questionnaires were the direct (first order) impacts of the use of electricity and their relation with income and education. Questions like: What do or did people pay for electricity? How many appliances do they own? How do they use them? Does that save time in the household? etc. were to be answered. Variables and significant Gamma coefficient relationships were determined and calculated (see Table AB). Variables will be discussed one by one.

The variables in Table AB: Years electricity: the number of years people have an

electricity connection. In Koto Anau that is less than 10 years, In Salido Kecll less than B years.

Conneetion price: the total price of the electricity connection.


table A7: significant gamma relations rasuiting trom the first question

income

reiation significant in one viilage oniy

migration

contacts outside village

participation

relation significant in both Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK)

table AS: significant gamma relations rasuiting trom the secend question

I years electricity I SK

~ number of appliances

I income I

I SK (neg.) -I conneetion price

I use of radio

IKA and television

I opinlon on prlce of electricity I -

IKA education I emanclpation I average monthly I

tarlff I I

relation significant in one village only relation significant in both Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK)


L r-KA

~

15

2.3.1 first conclusions

Opinion on price of electricHy: a respondent scores high if he or she thinks electricity is expensive, saves no money and causes financlal difficulties.

Average monthly tariff: including a fiXed monthly capacity dernand charge.

Number of appliances: respondents score one point when they own a radio, a television, an iron or a refrigerator.

Use of radio and television: the number of hours a day, the respondent looks telavision or listens radio or tape.

Emancipation: the number of hours, electricity saves in one day in the household.

Some conclusions rasuiting trom Table A7 and AS are:

lncome: no significant relation exlsts between income and having an electricity conneetion in Koto Anau. This might be caused by the difficulty to determine the lncome of a household. On the other hand, 33% of the villagers with and even 53% of the villagers without electricity think only the richer people own a connection. Furthermore, when we look at the reasans households do not own connections, the relation between income and having a conneetion bacomes more striking. In both villages 70% of these households cannot afford the conneetion price. Only 5% does not need electricity and in Salido Kecil 25% cannot get electricity because they live too far trom the grid. In two villages in Koto Anau (where the electricity grid covers slx villages), people can make use of the village electricity credit. Also the poorer people can take a connection, causing a high consumer saturation.

Quality of house: the relation between having an electricity conneetion and the quality of the house is significant in both villages. No significant relation exists between the quality of the house and income. This might be caused by the tact that rnany houses (67%) are family owned since many generations and therefore gradually reached their present state.

Migration: level of migration is not decreased by having electricity. Also no significant relation exists

part A I Impacts of shp 16

between income or education and migration. This implies that electricity does not cause a decrease in migration. In my apinion it might even stimuiate migration. Because of having a connection, people have more centacts outside the village and are more aware of the big ditterences in lndonesia. Some villagers stated: "in telavision we often hear of large foreign development aid to Java. In our village we never see anything of that money. All the 'president cows', donated by the Australian government must have been given to Javanese farmers".

Centacts outside the village: it is clear that people with an electricity conneetion more often visit the provinciai capita! and ether lndonesian islands. No relation exists between income and contacts.

Participation: the same is true tor the variabie participation. People with an electricity conneetion more often go to village meetings and participate in more ether village co-operations and organizations.

Conneetion price: in Salido Kecil the first people to receive an electricity conneetion did not have to pay a conneetion charge, because the ice-factory paid for their connections. Many people thought that they would have to pay an additional conneetion price to the PLN after a tew years, so did net use this opportunity. Only the people that were better informed benefited trom this offer.

Average monthly tariff: households with a higher income use more electricity, own more appliances and therefore can better benefit trom the advantage electricity offers.

Use of radio and television: on the average, people with an electricity conneetion in Koto Anau watch 2.5 hours and in Salido Kecil watch 1.2 hours telavision per day. People that have no electricity watch ene hour in Koto Anau and .5 hour in Salido Kecil. In Koto Anau and in Salido Kecil people that have electricity listen ene hour radio or tape per day. People without electricity on the average listen a quarter of an hour in both villages. People with a better education listen and look more aften in both villag es.

Emancipation: on the average electricity saves three quarters of an hour every day. This is because people do net have to use oil-lamps and save time through the use of an electric iron. I assume that this reduces the total amount of timespent on routine househeld activities.


2.3.2 general conclusions

2.3.3 the impact matrix

One of the questions was what people thought to be the most important impact of the availability of electricity. Percaptions were as follows:

more contacts 61 % convenianee 60 % more income 17 % more evening activity 12 % economie development 9 %

One of the most complicated impacts, change in income distribution, rernains to be discussed separately. In both sample villages, the richer can benefit better from the advantages of electricity. They take a conneetion earlier, own more different appliances and therefore have more opportunity to share the privileges sleetricity offers. People that own no conneetion in most cases cannot afford its price. But they almost all think electricity would reduce their energy expenses. And they are right. Electricity Is much cheaper, especlally for lighting. Availability of the sleetricity credit would clearly make it easier to take a connection. But it Is not available everywhere because financlal sourees are limited. When it is available, the conneetion rate could grow definitely, up to 80% of the households. So impacts indicate an increase of differences in income distribution. Besides that, electricity also implicates an increase in, non-financial, opportunity distribution. Using sleetricity stimulates contacts outside the village, education and participation.

In general it became clear that the most important impacts are achieved in the private consumption sector. Some impacts do occur in other sectors, but in an overall view they play a minor role in village development. Impacts of private sleetricity consumption are basically social, although sleetricity definitely decreasas fuel expenses. But this economie advantage is not clearly perceived as an advantage by the village population.

Now that the impacts are indlcated, the impact matrix (Tabie A9) can be filled. lt is a tooi to make Impacts visible in a structured and comprehensive way. lts framework is deslgned in Chapter B2. All impacts that were observed return in the matrix in the categories economie, politica!, social and unintended.


table A9: SHP impact matrix 1. Agriculture 8. Water facilities 2. Animal husbandry 9. Public lighting 3. Production goods 10. Private lighting 4. Consumption goods 11. Cooling 5. Transport 12. Cooking 6. Communication 13. Other appliances 7. Health 14. C>.lerall impacts of SHP

APPUANCE GROUPS PRODUCTION

agrarian IMPACTS 1 2

Make better use of local prod. factors + + Decrease production and transport costs +

lncrease local production activities + • lncrease food production and erop variety + + Change viability of smaller enterprises

Stimulate differentiation + + lmprove infrastructure

lncrease access to other markets + • Expand shop assortment + lncrease employment ++ I lncrease income ++ . .

Change income distribution +

lmprove land tenure system + Decrease dependenee on other fuels +

...,... ~

Decrease deforestation Use and increase availability of skilis + +

Decrease migration ++ + Promote politica! stability

Stimulate co-operation activities + lmprove local participation +

Create awareness of need for development

Create confidence in local problem solving lncrease self-reliance +++ +

Satisfy basic needs ++ + Stimulate internal contacts Stimulate external contacts

lncrease convenianee lncrease safety

lmprove education Promote emancipation lmprove state of health + + lmprove food condition + +

Introduce radio and telev. as entertment

Create conflicts with traditional habits Create awareness of dual structure economy

Stimulate population growth + + Causa financial difficulties

Create dependenee on technica! equipment Stimulate cafejbarjrestaurant visits

industry services 3 4 5 6 7

+ + + + + + • . + + + ++ + + + .. +

+ + +++ I + +++ + + .

+ .

+ .. . + ++ + + ++ + +++ +++

+ + + + +

+ + + + • + + ++ + ++

+ .. + +

• . + + ++ +

+

+ +

++

public 8 9

+ +

+ + ++

+ ++ ++

++ +

I +

+ I +

+ + ++

+

++

+

+/- considered to be a possible impact Iw. observed as a moderate impact • observed as an important impact


CONSUMPTION private

10 11 12 13

+ + + +

+ ... + + + ++ + +

I• + + •nr:.::: • . + .

• + + +

++ +++ ++ ++

+ + + + + +

+ + +- + +- +-+ ++ +

I + + .

' • + + .

• .. • + . ++ + +

+ • ++ + I +

. .. ++

• • I .

all 14

~

+++

. I +

+ ++++ ..

+

+

++-l',;ll;;;;: ~

I + +

+

19

chapter A3 recommendations

Evaluation, comparison of aims and impacts, offers material to develop recommendations for future policy improvement. So far, impacts of SHP introduetion have been identified and analyzed. Now the Impacts will have to be compared with the aims of the parties lnvolved in that introduction. For this comparison the aims matrix can be used (see Table 85). The framewerk of this matrix is formed by the 14 appliance groups on one side and the aims of the parties involved, categorized lnto three groups, economie, politica! and social, on the other. The aims matrix will be transformed into an evaluation matrix (see Table A10) by adding the actual realization of each of the aims. For determining this actual achievement, the aims, that were relevant for SHP introduetion were compared with the impacts from the impact matrix (Table A9). For most of the objectives, certain impacts form a realization. So after analyzing actual observations, something can be said about achlevement of each of the objectives.

In the evaluation matrix I made a distinction between important and less important aims. Less important aims can be aims that are less relevant for small hydro power in particular, or that are less essential, taklng into consideration the objectives of the UNIDO (the organization for which this report is written in the first place).

In this way, observing the evaluation matrix In Table A 10, important aims that havenotbeen (entirely) realized and their according appliance groups, can be distinguished immediately. To be absolutely clear, Table A11 will presenteach of the aims, of each of the parties involved, and lts realization in generaL

part A I recommendations 20

table A 10: SHP evalustion matrix 1. Agriculture 8. Water facilities 2. Animal husbandry 9. Public lighting 3. Production goods 10. Private lighting 4. Consumption goods 11. Cooling 5. Transport 12. Cooking 6. Communication 13. Other appliances 7. Health 14. (}.terall impacts of SHP

APPUANCE GROUPS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION

private agrarian industry services public CATEGORY OF AJMS 12 34 567 89

Stimulate differentiation of industr. activities

Promote productive activities ~ :::; E :fl lncrease income and empl. opportunities E I E ~

lncrease access to production factors -. ~ -.I -- -.. ." ... lncrease access to credit facilities

ECONOMIC

Stimulate new energy development

lncrease efficiency of energy consumption

lncrease reliability of power supply

Stimulate developm. throughout the country E a a ::: a

-""""' -

10 11 12 13 all 14

Equalize population density E a • E E a E • • • a a a ~ Stimulate participation in development

PO UT/CAL

Distribute basic human needs

lmprove education and health facilities

Stimulate opportunities to obtain justice

Supply cheap electricitv tor dornestic needs

Stimulate social and economie activities B 11 • B lmprove access to better work opportunities .1 •I

lncrease convenianee

Decrease routine household activities

lncrease welfare and comfort perception

SOCIAL

•m il

I -I ~i~~t

1 ......... ~

• mm1t~

B ï

aim can be (partly) realized though this appliance (from Tabla 85) aim is partly realized though this appliance aim is successfully realized though this appliance

Important aims are underlined


table A 11: aims and their realization tor each of the parties involved in SHP.

(for each party involved in SHP, first the aims that are realized, then the aims that are partly realized, the aims that are not realized and finally the aims for which the opposite occurred are listed)

PAR1Y INVOLVED IN SHP

realized

I partly realized

1 not realized I opposite occurred

DEVELOPMENT CD-OPERA TION BODlES

· develop energy sourees in third world countries use SHP generation tor rural electrification

stimulate productive uses of energy in a rural setting

GOVERNMENTAL BODlES

improve access to means of fulfilling basic human needs distribute income and employment opportunities improve access to participation in development and emancipation distribute development efforts throughout the various regions of the country

stimulate differentlation of industrial actlvities on macro and micro level improve access to education and health facilities stimulate access to business opportunities

equalize popuiatien density throughout the country lmprove opportunities to obtain justice

STATE ELECTRIC/1Y CORPORA TION

decrease dependenee on traditional fuel sources, through development of new sourees of energy bring electricity to the majority of the lndonesian villages supply energy tor dornestic needs at affordable prices

stimulate social and economie actlvities promote productive uses of energy increase efficiency of energy consumption

LOCAL ENTREPRENEURS

RU RAL POP ULA TION

increase project viability through high saturation and load factor impravement simplify operatien and maintenance procedures increase reliability of power supply

increase participation in development actlvities increase convenience through better housing facilities and use of appliances decrease time spent on routine househeld actlvities increase welfare and comfort perception through the use of "modern" appliances.

increase income and employment opportunities increase access to government credit facilities and other government services

increase access to production factors, such as land increase access to education and skill developing facilities distribute to the benefits of new technologies in food production and industry increase access to "better work" opportunities


3.1 recommendations per appliance group

3.1.1 agrarian sector

agriculture

For recommendations the evaluation matrix (Table A10) should be used. lnvestigation of the matrix offers some first conclusions. Most aims are achieved In the private consumption sector and are social. Therefore the three production sectorsneed extra attention in the recommendations. First the evaluation matrix will be passed through vertically, discussing recommendations for each appliance group. After that, some of the aims that need additional analysis, will be discussed separately in Chapters A3.2 to A3.4. Complementary measures that are not directly linked with SHP were not investigated during data collection. Recommendations are based on information that is not double-checked and facts and figures might not be fully applicable to the situation in West-Sumatra. The story in general will remain valid, because at this point I can use many of the remarks from key-informants, who certainly have the most accurate information about actual problems and possible solutions.

I will discuss these recommendations for each of the appliance groups in the evalustion matrix, the agrarian sector, the industrial sector, services sector, public consumption and private consumption. Although now and then the Koto Anau or Salido Kecil situation will be described, focus will be on general viewpoints.

Discusslons with key-informants showed that villagers have to deal with rnany problems in the agrarian sector.

First I will give a brief description of the agricultural situation. Most important erop in both villages is rice. Other agricultural products are grown in the "ladang", agricultural areasin the jungle. Agricultural extension is available, but limited. In Koto Anau (more than 15,000 inhabitants) one extension agent works, who has limited authority. In Salido Kecil the extension agent also has to cover two other villages and hardly ever visits its farmers. Most farmers do not own the money to experiment withother products and government credit is hardly available. Prices for other products generally are unreliable and low. Due to low prices for agricultural products, many farmers relapse into self-provision. Some crops might


animal husbandry

3.1.2 industrial sector

now and than offer goodposslbilities: cassava, clove, coconuts, coffee, licorice, rambotans, peanuts, rubber and sweet potatoes. For possibilities to use electricity in the agricultural sector, attention will have to focus on food processing industry, which will be discussed in Chapter A3.1.2.

In general animal husbandry involves large investments and high risks. Many farmers own a few chicken, goats or cows, but on a small scale. Key-informants think chicken or cow business offers good opportunities, but credit facilities are almost absent and financlal possibilities too.

With respect to the use of electricity in animal husbandry, birdhatching comes first. In Koto Anau several villagers own an Incubator, which, when people have some experience, can be basis tor good business. Cost savings are listed in Table A12. Difficulty remains, that gaining that experience involves investment and risks.

For obvious reasons, I will restriet myselt to small scale or home industry. Possibilities tor application of electricity in industrial actlvities depend on the way electricity is used. For some actlvities it will be preferabie to use electricity in stead of other fuel sources. For others tor example the use of diesel might be more profitable. lt is clear that electricity will only be used when it offers a comparatlve advantage.

With the lndonesian energy situation and prices in mind, the tollowing general distinction can be made. Use of electricity tor lighting, rotatien (milling) or compression (cooling), probably will have comparatlve advantage. Use of electricity tor heating will not. This is caused by the high lower-heating-value of fuel sourees like tuei-wood (6.25 GJfm3

) or fuel-oil (41 MJfkg), which causes low prices per Giga-Joule (fuel-wood US$ .58/GJ; fuel oil US$ 3.10/GJ) [Boom, 1988).

table A12: Cost savings through use of bird incubator (in US$).

Additional equipment costs Equipment recovery costs Fuel costs (24 hours)

Total daily cost savings per bird incubator

part A I recommendations

No electricity

.12

Electricity

2.marginal

.075

.045

24

ice-production

rice-hul/ing

New energy sourees in small industry can elther replace other fuel sourees or introduce new appliances or techniques. As stated eartier, except tor the ice-factory In Salldo Kecil, no use of electriclty in small lndustry was observed In the research villages. The ice-factory needed around 80 kW for maximum production. lt produced lee wlth old-fashioned and conventional technology. On the average lt took two hours to produce 18 bars of 40 lltres each. That means (in a normal situation, where the entrepreneur would have to pay for his electriclty) a price of US$ .515 per bar. This does not include the fixed monthly tariff or the investment recovery costs, simply because such information was not available. lee bars could be sold tor US$ .90 each. With a better production process, performance can be improved, but investment costs will in general be too high tor a rural communlty. On the other hand, lee-production offers excellent opportunities to increase the load-factor, which will be discussed in Chapter A3.2.

The only industrial activlty, using other fuel-sources, was ricehulling. Most rice-hullers use diesel as fuel-source. Several sourees indicate good opportunities tor electric rice-hulling. Analysis indicated that replacement of diesel enginas would definitely have a comparative advantage (see Table A13). Add a better paddy-rice conversion ratio tor electric rice-hulling (60.5% against 60%) [USAID, 1988] and benefits from electric rice-hulling are clear. Only difficulty was that no rice-huller owners knew about possibilities to use electricity (some people thought lt would increase energy costs). Electric rice-hullers were nottorsale in West-Sumatra. Although electric ricehulling is common in other South-East Asian countries, even the agricultural extension workar had never heard of this application.

Introduetion of new appliances In small scale or home industry requires a potentlal need tor new activities. Keyinformants in both research villages telt that need. New economie actlvities might Imprave the tinancial situation of many villagers. Certainly it is important to differentlate the productive activities, which currently are largely restricted to rice-production.


lf people want to start industrial activities in a rural setting, to be competitive with larger scale manufacture, those activities must be based on one of the following three Items:

1. Local raw materials, llke agricultural products or mineral sources.

2. Local demand, like agricultural inputs or consumer needs.

3. Local skills, like traditional arts and handicrafts.

Opportunities for each of these categories are:

1. Food processing

Other 2. Durables

Non-durables

3. Handicrafts

-rice hulling -tapioca flour and sago production -manufacture of vegetable oils -canning and conserving of fruits and vegetables

-rubber processing -production of shoes and textiles -blacksmithing and welding -lee production -soap production -fertilizer manufacture -wooden or bamboo furniture production

table A 13: Expected cost savings through the use of electric rice-hullers. [amongst others USAID, 1988]

Un-electrified Beetrifled Unit

Horsepower 15 7.5 HP Capital costs 3690 910 US$ Ufe expectancy 10 15 years Hours of operatien per year 1

) 1159 869 hours Fuel consumption per hour 2) 1.8 I 5.6kW fhour

Annual conneetion costs 3) 93 US$

Annual conneetion recovery costs 4) 53 US$

Annual fuel costs 220 175 US$ Annual maintenance costs 414 36 US$ Annual capital recovery costs 5) 653 134 US$

Total annual eperation costs 1287 491 US$

Savings in annual costs to the operator 796 US$

1) Electric rice-hulling takes 75% of un-eleetrified rice-hullers' hours of oparation

2) One HP equals .746 kW 3

) The cheapest 5.6 kW conneetion for industrial use of eleetricity 4

) Assumes a 12% opportunity costof capitaland the stated life expectancy 5) Assumes a 12% opportunity costof capital and the conneetion costs spread over 30 years

part A 1 recommendations 26

food processing

other possibilities

Some of these opportunities will be selected to be discussecl In more detail, because key-informants lndicated good perspectives.

Next to rice-hulling, I want to pay some extra attention to tapioca flour production. A tew years ago KUD representatives in Koto Anau tried to start a tapioca flour production process, but failed because of financlal difficultles. Still they believe processing of cassava (the basic material of tapioca flour) offers good economie chances. Cassava grows easily, has large yields, is little affected by diseases and pests and can stand a long period of drought. Therefore it can be grown in exhausted rice-areas or areas which cannot be irrigated easily. Although cassava has only a small nutritious value, it can very well be part of the lndonesian diet, the latter being sufficiently varied. After harvesting the cassava rootsneed to be peeled, a process which can be mechanized (rasping), milled, cleanecl and dried. Quantified benefits of electric milling will be comparable with the benefits of electric rice-hulling, because the process is quite similar. Locally rnanufactured small scale cassava mil Is are for sale in lndonesia. For example a . 75 HP {500 Watt) engine offers good opportunities and can mill up to 360 kg cassava per hour. lts dimensions are suitable for homeindustry. Existing local skilis can deal with the other parts of the tapioca flour production process. Tapioca flour can be used in rnany ways. Starch can be used to thicken sauce, to bake bread or produce candy. lt can boost the natural flavour of fruits in the canning process. lt also is widely used in animal feed.

Of the opportunities listed on the previous page, one more will be highlighted. The tropical raln-forest is an excellent souree of wood and bamboo. When cutting is well organized, exploitation of this souree does not have to cause any serieus deforestation. Bamboo and wood can be used in furniture production. For thls application bamboo first has to be prepared, a process which can be mechanized using electricity. Also sawing can be electrified. In Salido Kecil some people intend to start such a production process, which they believe has good economie possibilities.

In general, opportunities for srnall scale industry in a rural context entirely depend on the local situation. Agricultural products or local skilis can point to a speeltic kind of food processing industry or applications of sleetricity in one of the other categories. So far I emphasized possibilities in the Koto Anau and Salido Kecil situation. In other areas a thorough analysis of local circumstances can provide those industrial actlvities that best match the local situation.


3.1.3 services sector In this sector I will discuss some facllltles which are required to make several applications feasible. Two of these facilities are essential for innovations: extension and credit. In both

table A14:

KMK KI KIK KMKP KIK/ KMKP

research villages, lack of both facilities caused an absence of new applications. With regard to extenslon in lndonesia, several regional and sub-regional institutions and field workers can be distinguished:

TPL Field extension werker BPP Rural extension centre BIP Agricultural extension institution PIK Small industry unit UK Small industry area PPIK Small industry services centre BIPIK Small industry development

For these institutions and workers availability of extension and acquaintance with this availability is essential for new investment and innovations. In lndonesia several credit schemes can be distinguished (see Table A14). The government says to provide credit schames for economically Individuals or groups. These schames cover financlal requirements of smali-scale business activities, ranging from short term needs for werking capital to langer term loans for capita! investments. The credit programs are channelled by the central bank through the banking system, primarily the state and national banks. Other banks rnay participate with prior approval from the central bank. Extension agents should also be able to provide intermation about credit facilities.

Although available, most respondents and key-inforrnants pointed out for individuals it is almest impossible to be qualified for credit. Some informants thought these credit facilities should be channelled through the village co-operation (KUD). But they also stated, that insuftielent government initiative frustrated the villagers and put the co-operation in a difficult position.

lndonesian credit schemes. [Boom, 1988]

Target elient Loan Interest Repayment Grace ceiling ra te period period (US$) (%) (years) (years)

(working capital credit) Small enterprise 45000 15 2 Onvastment credit) Small enterprise 45000 12 10 4 (small investment credit) Individu al 9000 12 10 4 (permanent working capital credit) 45000 12 3 1 (combined credit for co-operatives) lndividual 9000 12 10 4

Co-operative 45000 12 10 4


3.1.4 public consumption

irrigation

water facilities

Intheservlees sector, I will discuss appllcations of electricity in shops. In Table A15 four shop categories and possible appliances are presented. Electrlclty offers good opportunities tor shop-keepers to improve attractiveness, expand shop assortment and lncrease production and income. All applications require only srnall investments and will reeover their costs easily, because electriclty is relatively cheap and repair and maintenance costs are low.

A lot of literature discussas possibilities to use electricity for irrigation. In the IndonesJan situation traditional ways of irrigation in general provide a satisfactory solution. Due to the mountainous areas and extensive water resources, gravity is a better energy souree to lead water to the agricultural areas. In order to reduce infrastructural investment costs and increase reliability of the irrigation system, inlegration of SHP development and impravement of the irrigation system should be considered in the planning stage. Also Indonasla offers a lot of opportunities to establish SHP plants using existing irrigation channels. In that situation attention should be given to the possible competition of different water uses.

Electriclty can be applied in public water facilities. Those facilities often require high-pressure pumps, for which electriclty has comparative advantage over other fuel sources.

table A15: possibilities for use of electriclty in shops.

Kind of shop:

food store

bar or restaurant

tailor

workshop

part A I recommendations

Possible applications:

lighting smal! scale food processing refrigeration

lighting refrigeration radio or television air-conditioning

lighting ironing

lighting welding sawing shaftpower compression

29

street lighting

3.1.5 private consumption

Most important application of electricity in public consumption is public lighting. An important impact is that it increases the safety in the viilage. Furthermore the internal centacts are stimulated, because more people wiil leave their houses at night. During the design of the local electricity grid, a fair distribution of street lighting in the village should be priority. Repair and rnaintensnee of street lights deserves high priority, but in lndonesia is often neglected.

Use of electricity in the private consumption sector is discussed in Chapter A2.2. Many appliances in this sector offer clear benefits for the rural community. Due to low prices of electricity in lndonesia, especiaily the eest savings through electric lighting (the most important and common application) must be emphasized (see Table A16). With electric lights, a rural househeld can reeover lts conneetion costs easily. Next to electric lighting, ironing and radio and telavision are common applications, offering beneticlal impacts.

In the lndonesian situation, cooling is not considered to be an important application of electricity. People are not acquainted with possibilities to conserve food in a refrigerator. Fresh fish and vegetables are available and preferred.

table A16: Rural household's eest savings through the use of electric lights (in US$).

Initia! conneetion costs

Annual conneetion costs

no electricity (fuel source: fuel-oil)

electricity (no credit)

52.83

eleetricity (with conneetion credit) 1

)

39.50

Annual conneetion recovery costs 2)

Annual fuel costs 43.80 3)

14.12 6.18 7.02 4)

14.12 4.62 7.02 4)

Total annual lighting costs 43.80

Annual cost savings through the use of eleetriclty

27.43

16.37

25.76

18.04

1l for explanation of the village eleetricity credit (KLP) see Table A4. 21 assumes a 12% opportunity costof capita!

and a 30 years conneetion lifetime. 3l assumes one litre of fuel-oil a day, 365 days a year

(average result trom household survey). 4l assumes three 40 Watt lamps used five hour every day and

one 20 Watt lamp used seven hour a day, 365 days a year.


3.2 migration

In the research villages the use of electricity for cooking offers no comparative advantage. Extensive fuel-wood sourees and absence of a deforestation problem, lmply low fuel-wood prices. Therefore electric cooking turns out to be relatively expensive. Use of a 750 Watt, 1.8 litre rice-cooker would increase annual electricity expenses with US$ 35.59 (assuming this cooker Is used five hours a day, 365 days a year). In the two research villages average annual fuel-wood expenses (most common fuel-source) are US$ 32.85 (see Table A4). So in this situation the costs of the electric rice-cooker (US$ 30) will never be earned back.

Although for some policy makers emphasis is on productive uses of electricity, social and economie benefits of the use of electricity in private consumption should not be underestimated.

Next to recommendations in the different appllance groups, some aims that need additional comments will be discussed separately.

One of those aims is •equalize popu/ation density throughout the country• or, as it was formulated as possible impact: "decrease migration•. The hypothesis "rural development decreasas rural-urban migration• tor many policy makers is a presupposition in their policy recommendations. When we quote Peter Nas [Nas, 1987]: •rural development stimulates rural-urban migration ... anti-migration policy is impossible", it becomes clear that this presupposition requires investigation. lt would go beyond the scope of thls report to discuss this subject deeper.

I will briefly present my findings in the two case studies. Keyinformants pointed out only impravement of the quality of work might decrease migration. This includes a more equal distribution of Iabour opportunities and of Iabour income (besides financlal payments also satlsfaction and better terms of employment). In the present situation no relation between rural electrification and decrease of migration was observed.


3.3 income distri bution

3.4 improving the efficiency of shp

In Chapter A2.3.2 change in income distribution as an impact of SHP was discussed. In the sample villages only the richer people can afford an electricity connection. Therefore only these people can benefit from the advantages electricity offers. These advantages are both economie and soclal.

The only way to evereome these differences is by taking measures to enable the poorer people to take a connection. This can be done through provision of information on the economie advantages of electricity (of which many people are insufficiently aware) and through increasing people's financlal possibilities to pay for an electricity connection. Availability of an electricity credit scheme Oike the KLP, see Table A4) is an effective means to increase these possibilities. In villages without the KLP scheme, conneetion rate has an upper limit of about 50%. When the KLP is available, conneetion rate can grow up to 80%.

From one particular angle Small Hydro Power is different from many ether fuel sources. That is because SHP generation does not eensurne a scarce fuel source. The only restrictive factors are the availability of water and the generator capacity. The amount of capacity that is actually consumed is called the lead-factor (capacity consumption as a percentage of SHP potent lal).

In PLN a graph of the ideal rural lead profile was presented (see Table C7). This lead profile implicates a lead-factor of 49%. Lead-factor for the Koto Anau SHP generator was less than 20% (see Table CS). Literature on SHP confirms that 20% is more likely to be accurate. Table C7 is converted toa graph, that represents a lead-factor of 20% and, together with the ideallead profile, presented in Table A17.

A lead factor of 20% implicates that 80% of the capacity is not used. For a generator like the one in Koto Anau (a capacity of 120 kW), the capacity that remains unused is presented in Table A18.

When a new SHP site is planned, its capacity has to be based on the peak power demand. When additional measures are taken to improve the lead-factor, the capital investment costs will be reecvered sooner. Therefore the feasibility of the plant lncreases. In the case of diesel generation, increase of the lead-factor would imply increase of diesel expenses. For SHP


generation there is na increase of energy expenses. The only extra casts will be repair and rnaintensnee casts. But these are relatively lew and can easily be reeavered though increased electricity payments.

With respect to laad-factor improvement, PLN rastricts itself to demand studies in the project planning stage. Besides that attention should be dedicated to stimulating demand during non peak hours. This can be achleved by eneauraging use of electricity for existing local production methods and stimulation of the use of new appliances. Saveral possibilities have been discussed In Chapter A3.1. Possible measures are to co-operate withether policy makers, like the Ministry for lndustrial Development, in the project planning stage ar to reduce electricity prices for productive end uses of SHP capscity during non peak hours.

table A17: Ruralload profile (electricity consumption as a percentage of capscity tor every hour of ene typ i cal day).

100 %

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

[PLN for the 49% curve]

i!!ll!ll!l Lood-factor 20%

D Lood-factor 49%

time: 12:oo 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:oo 12:00

part A I recommendatlons 33

Demand during these hours can be demand for electricity, but also demand for rotatien energy. When local circumstances are appropriate, this rotatien energy can be utllized directly in energy consuming processes, which demand rotatien power. These opportunities radically reduce energy conversion lossas (efficiency of rotatien to electric energy conversion is around 35%) and therefore increase small hydro power potentlal in general energy terms. One can think of possibilities for milling, hulling or lce-production. These applications require a SHP site location near the village, because rotatien power, in contrast with electric power, cannot be transported easily.

Another way to use more capacity during non peak hours, is by converting the available energy into products. An appropriate example is fertilizer production. The remaining capacity is converted into chemica! energy, which can add value to nitrogen by producing fertilizer, a production which requires relatively low investments and producesfora local market [Holland, 1983].

table A18: Unused capacity tor a 120 kW generatorand aload-factor of 20% for every hour of one typical day.

120 kW

100 kW

80 kW

60 kW

40kW

20 kW

time: 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 a:oo 10:00 12:00


chapter A4 evaluation of the methodology

For an evalustion of technological projects, the alms-impacts approach might be regarded toe short-sighted. Many of the aims of all parties involved cannot be a direct impact of a technological innovation. Some impacts might only occur when additional measures wiJl be taken, which have no direct relation with the technology involved.

Development requires an lntegrated approach. Only integration of the aims of the different development policy making institutions can cause a spin-off of effects that cover all objectlves. For each policy field, different and distinct tools have to be identified.

In the case of Small Hydro Power the alms-impacts approach Is lacking with respect to, for example, qverall economie Impacts. Introduetion of SHP in itself will net lmplicate economie development, without ether tools being effered to the rural population.

In order to get a better Imprassion of these possibilities, a SHP planning policy analysis should be conducted. Objectlves could to be to lnvestigate the amount in which different policy making institutions (like ministries) co-operate and are integrated, and what kind of co-operation might lead to a better realization of the objectlves.

As stated in the preface, I restricted myself to small hydro power as an energy source. Obviously rnany ether energy sourees are optional for rural energy provislon. Recommendation for further research is to cernpare SHP with ether energy sourees and to describe a rural energy planning system. In this point of view it might also be interesting to lnvestigate and evaluate impacts of rural electrification in generaL This makes results applicable to a much wider field. Maybe the impacts in such an analysis wiJl turn out to be quite similar to the results in this report.

part A I evalustion of the methodology 35

In the two case studies no impacts ware observed, that were directly linked with the more or less unlque properties of SHP electrification.

In Chapter A3, recommendations, three objectives, which are important tor policy rnakers in the case of SHP development, were taken apart and discussed in Chapters A3.2 to A3.4.

First objective, migration, has been subject of dlscussion tor many decades. What kind of policy does decrease rural-urban migration and what factors play an important rele in the migration pattern? With respect to the impact of rural energy planning on this migration pattern, many researchers disagree. This topic is so complex and diffuse, that it might be interesting to investigate it separately.

For the secend objective, analyzed in the previous chapter, sernething similar can be said. What is the effect of rural energy planning on the rural income distribution? What does the actual rural income distribution imply tor possibilities tor rural development? What are the opportunities to provide cheap and goed energy tor the rural poer? Many interesting questions ferm the basis of a subject tor further research.

A final recommendation has to do with the lead-factor of existing SHP projects. lt might be interesting to collect data about experiences with respect to lead-factor improvement. In rnany countries definitely a lot of efforts were dedicated to this subject. What are the experiences? What are goed opportunities to increase the lead-factor? This typical SHP problem Is not adequately solved in lndonesia, so in the present report only some recommendations could be given. Actual experiences in ether projects might provide a more interesting and complete picture of problems and possibilities.

part A 1 evalustion of the methodology 36

When the basic structure of energy research Is presenteef in a schedule, the actual place of the present research and its linksges with the other energy research topics becomes clear:

energy SHP planning

planning policy policy analysis

analysis I/

.-----_;-en-e-rg_y_..,/r- energy SHP

impact evalustion

impact demand evalustion analysis

I

energy policy impacts on migration

energy policy impacts on

income distribution

part A 1 evalustion of the methodology

energy supply

analysis

I analysis of possibilities to improve

SHP load-factors

37

chapter A5

part A

conclusions

This chapter is the summary of Part A, to which personar impressions are added. In the two sample villages in WestSumatra, Koto Anau and Salido Kecil, SHP generation only is used for electric appliances. Most popular applications, electric lights, radio/tape, terevision and iron, are found in the private and public consumptlon sector. Although some electricity is used for productive purposes, most important being the ice production factory, these kind of applications are not common and only a few villagers can share the benefits.

With respect to the impacts of sleetricity use, sarnething similar can be said. Most important impacts appear in the private consumption sector. In order to analyze these impacts, two basic questions were posed:

1. What are the social and economie differences between users and non-users of electricity?

2. What are the direct Impacts of electricity use in relation with income and education?

Conclusion drawn from question one are:

o the level of education of conneetion owners is higher o the quality of the house of conneetion owners is higher o people with a conneetion have more centacts outside

the village o people with a conneetion partielpats better in village

meetings and co-operations o people that have no conneetion in general cannot afford

the conneetion price o there is no relation between having a conneetion and

migration

Conclusions drawn trom the secend question are:

o people with a higher income use more electricity and own more appliances

conclusions 38

o people with a better education listen radio and look telavision more frequent

o most people have no problems with the price of electricity

Impacts of the use of electricity are Important tor the village community. Centacts among villagers improve, the village streets are safer, convenianee of electricity use is percelveel important and electricity significantly reduces energy expenses. On the other hand the rlcher people can better benefit trom the advanteges electricity offers.

Recommendations to improve SHP impacts are formulated after comparison of aims and Impacts and concentrata on productive activities. Several possibilities are described in Chapter A3. But tor each activity the most important difficulty Is that people do not know the possibilities, experience and lnvestment opportunities. When a SHP site Is planned, these problems should be taken into consideration. That calls tor an lntegrated approach, where different policy making institutions are involved. Productive actlvities are extra important, because the lead-factor of a SHP generator (the amount of capscity that Is actually used) should be as high as possible. That means that electricity consumption during non-peak hours should be stimulated. This way the project investments can be reecvered easier and the project feasibility increases.

In spite of that, I have the impression that villagers are not really interesteel In productive activities. Problems in the village are mainly agricultural, since 90% of the village Iabour force is farmer. Farmers try to differentlate because rice production only is insuftleient tor a secure living. When people own any money tor investment, they probably preter investments in animal husbandry. Without a solid agricultural and financlal base, it seems too earty tor productive uses of electricity. lt also seems that only government initiative can change that situation.

part A I conclusions 39

part B

chapter 81 methodological structure

Evaluation of a specific project intends to compare aims and impacts (step 1 ). This comparison offers starting-points for complementary measures, which have to be assessed (step 2). Selection of beneficia! complementary measures forms the actual policy recommendation (step 3). This structure will be adapted in this research and is presented schematically in Table 81.

table 81: Methodological structure.

Step 1: Evalustion

I alms • SHP .. 'Impacts

feedback ..

Step 2: Development of complementary measures

feedback

Step 3: Policy recommendations

complement I I pollcy I measures ~1-------..~------t, recommend.

part B I methodological structure 40

chapter 82

table 82: Uses of SHP.

impacts of small hydra power

To be able to discuss the impacts of SHP, the uses of SHP must be categorized in a village model. That model must be a workbase by which the impacts of SHP can be described. In general a model should form the analogy of the structure that is assumed to occur in reality. On the other hand a model must be constructed in such a way, that it enables the researcher to meet his or her objectives. The first step in the construction is the identification of the different uses of SHP. Mr. Bert de Bruin [de Bruin, 1988] has made an inventory of the uses of SHP and divided them into 14 categoriesof appliances. On the basis of that division and after consideration of the research objectives, some modifications led to the following table. Uses can be divided into two main categories, productive and consumptive uses. After a subdivision, the following categories are presumed to be important (see Table B2).

Although these categories do not cover all applications and some overlap is unavoidable, they must enable the researcher to come to results and it is assumed that they provide a representative picture of uses.

A. Production: -Agrarian 1. Agriculture 2. Animal husbandry

-lndustrial 3. Production goods 4. Consumption goods

-Services 5. Transport 6. Communication 7. Health

B. Consumption: -Public 8. Water facilities 9. Public lighting

-Private 10. Private lighting 11. Cooling 12. Cooking 13. Other appliances

C. Overall 14. Overall impacts of SHP

part B I impacts of srnall hydro power 41

impact matrix

In order to arrive at impacts of SHP the different applications and their possible impacts in each category must be identified. This is done through reading literature on SHP and discussing with people that are familiar with SHP and its uses and impacts.

Not only the direct impacts are relevant. Many important effects occur indirectly and must be taken into consideration as well. The possible impacts and their order of appearance are shown in so-called impact charts. In those charts, the uses of SHP and their impacts are presented (see the thesis of Mr. Bert de Bruin [de Bruin, 1988]).

Using the impact charts, an inventory of all the impacts of the introduetion of SHP can be made. The impacts must be divided into categories in such a way, that conclusions can be drawn and an evalustion can be carried out. Therefore the categories must be designed in relation with the main objectives of the parties involved in SHP implementation.

The impacts are arranged in tour different categories; economie, politica!, social and other impacts. All impacts that occur in the impact charts wUI fall into one of these categories and wUI be categorized in the so-called impact matrix, where possible impacts, caused by the different appliance groups are presented. Therefore the 14 appliance groups and the 4 impact groups form the framewerk of that impact matrix (see Table B3), which is a tooi to present impacts in a clear and consise way.

Certain impacts in this categorization need additional analysis. This analysis is based on two important questions:

1. What are the social and economie ditterences between users and non-users of electricity?

2. What are the direct impacts of the use of electricity and their relation with income and education?

Fort each of these questions a model with theoretica! variables is constructed, using common sense and advise trom insiders (see Tables B4 and B5).

part B I impacts of small hydra power 42

table 83: SHP impact matrix 1. Ag riouiture 8. Water facilities 2. Animal husbandry 9. Public lighting 3. Production goods 10. Private lighting 4. Consumption goods 11. Cooling 5. Transport 12. Cooking 6. Communication 13. Other appliances 7. Health 14. Overall impacts of SHP


agrarian industry service public private all IMPACTS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Make better use of local prod. factors + + + + + Decrease production and transport costs + + + +

lncrease local production activities + + + + + + lncrease food production and erop variety + + + +

Change viability of smaller enterprises + + Stimulate differentiation + + + ++

lmprove infrastructure + + + +++ lncrease access to other markets + + + + + +

Expand shop assortment + + + + + + + lncrease employment ++ + +++ ++ + + + ++ + + ++

lncrease income ++ + +++ ++ + + + + ++ + + + Change income distribution + + + + + +

lmprove land tenure system + Decrease dependenee on other fuels + + + + + + + +

Decrease deforestation + Use and increase availability of skilis + + + ++ + + + +

Decrease migration ++ + ++ + +++ +++ + ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ +++ Promote politica! stability +

Stimulate co-operation activities + + lmprove local participation + + + + + ++ + + + + ++

Create awareness of need for development + + ++ + + +

Create confidence in local problem solving + + + ++ + + lncrease self-reliance +++ + + ++ + + +- + +- +- ++-

Satisfy basic needs ++ + + ++ + ++ + + ++ + + + Stimulate internal contacts ++ + + Stimulate external contacts + + + +

lncrease convenianee + + + + + + + + ++ lncrease safety +

lmprove education + + + + Promote emancipation + + + + + + + lmprove state of health + + ++ ++ ++ lmprove food condition + + + + +

Introduce radio and telev. as antert.ment + + +

Create contiiets with traditional habits + + ++ + ++ Create awareness of dual structure economy + + +

Stimulate popuiatien growth + + ++ ++ ++ Cause financial difficulties +

Create dependenee on technica! equipment + + + Stimulate cafejbarfrestaurant visits + +

the opposite can be achieved in this appliance group + this impact can be achieved in this appliance group

partB I impacts of shp 43

table 83: theoretica! variables and their relations deriving trom the first question.

lncome

migration

contacts outslde village

partiel pation

table 84: theoretica! variables and their relations deriving trom the secend question.

I years electricity I : number of appllances

I lncome I

J ,....--

I conneetion prlce -

I~ .......... t and televlslon

I opinion on price of electricity 1--

t education ·1 emanclpation I average monthly

I

~ tariff

part B 1 impacts of small hydro power

I

~

}- -

44

chapter 83

3.1 development co-operation bod i es

aims of the parties involved in shp

With the evaluation matrix, we arrive at the most important part of our methodology, the evaluation method. "Evaluation aims to determine whether the project objectives, set in terms of expected outputs, effects and impacts are being or wil/ be met• [Castley, 1982]. So after rnadelling the situation we must evaluate it through camparisen of objectives and impacts. The aims of all the parties involved must be listed, because they all want to benefit trom SHP impacts. Since evaluation is carried out tor policy makers, they must select aims they think relevant and come to conclusions. To distinguish the different parties involved in SHP, its development can be divided into project approval, implementation and applications of SHP energy. As will be described in Chapter C1 , development co-operation bodles and governmental bodles are basically involved in project approval. Local entrepreneurs take care of the implementation and the rural population, SHP user, eventually has the task to use this new farm of energy.

In the lndonesian situation, only occasionally development co-operation bodles are involved in SHP implementation. Since this study is carried out in a UNIDO assignment, UNIDO objectives In general and the policy of the Regional Netwerk tor SHP (RN-SHP) are of importance. Most important objectives are to:

o develop energy sourees in third world countries o use SHP generation for rural electrification o stimulate productive uses of energy in a rural setting o share intermation and consultancy services amongst

participating countries in the regional netwerk o develop socio-economie evaluations of SHP

development

part B I aims of the parties involved in SHP 45

3.2 governmental bod i es

In lndonesia, several govemment lnstitutions are lnvolved in SHP implementation. At the highest level, govemment policy is described in the flve-year development plans, REPELITA. As stated in the lndonesian constitution of 1948, most important and general objectlve is "to advance the general welfare and develop the intellectuallife of the nation•. Aims, closely related to this statement, are to:

o stimulate differentlation of industrial actlvities on macro and micro level

o decrease population growth and equalize population density throughout the country

In one of the development plans, REPELITA 111, the following policies are formulated:

stimulate an equitable distribution of: o access to means of fulfilling basic human needs,

especially food, clothing and shelter o access to education and health facilities o lncome and employment opportunities o access to business opportunities o access to participation In development, particularly tor

the young generation and women o development efforts throughout the various regions of

the country o opportunities to obtain justice

[amongst others, UNDP, 1980]

The lndonesian lnstitution with the responsibility tor the rural electrification programme is the State Electricity Corporation (PLN). The following PLN policies can be distinguished:

o decrease dependenee on traditional fuel sources, through development of new sourees of energy

o bring electricity to the rnajority of the lndonesian villages o supply energy tor dornestic needs at affordable prices o promote productive uses of energy o stimulate social and economie actlvities o increase efficiency of energy consumption

[amongst others, Boom, 1988]


3.3 local entrepreneurs

3.4 rural popuiatien

In most cases the PLN is responsible for the implementation of SHP projects. A special division, the Project Division under authority of the PLN, is established to co-ordinale and manage rural electrification project implementation in lndonesia. Objectives are to:

o reduce project implementation time and costs o simplify oparation and maintenance procedures o increase reliability of power supply o increase project viability through high consumer

saturation and load factor impravement [amongst others, RN-SHP news 1, 1987]

lt is assumed that the most important objectives of the local population in general and the users of SHP in particular are as follows:

o lncrease income and employment opportunities o increase access to production factors, such as land o increase participation in development activities o increase access to education and skill developing

facilities o increase access to the benefits of new technologies in

food production and industry o increase access to "better work" opportunities o lncrease access to government credit facilities and other

government services o increase convenianee through better housing facilities

and use of appliances o decrease time spent on routine household actlvities o increase welfare and comfort perception through the use

of "modern" appliances.

In analogy with the impact matrix, these aims, when achievable through SHP, will be categorized in the categories economie, politica! and social. After categorization, the aims together wlth the 14 appliance groups form the framework of the aims matrix (see Table B6). For each of the aims the appliance groups in which they might be (partly) realized are presented.


table 86: SHP aims matrix. 1. Agriculture 8. Water facilities 2. Animal husbandry 9. Public lighting 3. Production goods 10. Private lighting 4. Consumption goods 11. Cooling 5. Transport 12. Cooking 6. Communication 13. Other appliances 7. Health 14. Overall impacts of SHP


private agrarian industry services public CATEGORY OF AIMS 12 34 567 89

Stimulate differentiation of industr. activities Promote productive activities ~ ~

lncrease income and empl. opportunities ~ ::;:::::::;;;: lncrease access to production factors ~ ~

lncrease access to credit facilities

ECONOMIC

Stimulate new energy development lncrease efficiency of energy consumption

lncrease reliability of power supply Stimulate developm. throughout the country ~ ~

Equalize population density ~ ~ Stimulate participation in development

POUTICAL

Distribute basic human needs lmprove education and health facilities

Stimulate opportunities to obtain justice Supply cheap electricity for dornestic needs

Stimulate social and economie activities ~ ~ ~~

lmprove access to better work opportunities ~ ~ lncrease convenianee

Decrease routine household activities lncrease welfare and comfort perception

SOCIAL

~ . .

10 11 12 13

~ aim can be (partly) realized though this appliance

part B I aims of the parties involved in SHP

all 14

48

chapter 84 possible measures

As indicated in the problem definition, one of the research objectives is to formulate possible measures to improve the impact of the introduetion of SHP. Discrepancy between aims and impacts offers material tor evaluation. This evaluation will provide the opportunity to design measures to improve impacts of SHP introduction. Although these measures must be based on project evaluation, a preliminary enumeration of measures can be designed, taking into consideration general difficulties occurring in SHP projects.

The impact of SHP introduetion can be improved in several ways. In the first place, the project implementation can be optimised. Here the objectives of the local entrepreneurs are important. Possible measures are presenteef in measure 1.

Secondly, the impact of SHP introduetion might be improved through taking lnto consideration other purposes for the construction works and efforts as well. This way overall costs can be reduced and benefits can be improved and distributed more equally (measure 2).

In the third place, impacts can only be achleveet when appliances are used. At all levels, the use of adequate appliances is an important policy objective. Several measures can be of importance in this matter (measure 3).

Furthermore, UNIDO and the lndonesian government stress the use of appliances tor productive purposes. Some methods to stimulate this use are tormulateet in measure 4.

Finally equalization of villager opportunities to benefit trom SHP introduetion and optimization of socio-economie impacts on village level are of great importance to the lndonesian government and the villagers concerned. Possible measures to improve overall Impacts are presenteef in measure 5.

part B I possible measures 49

Measure 1

Measure 2

Measure 3

Measure 4

SHP electricity production usually is made feasible through government subsidies. Self-sufficiency might be improved through:

-stressing the importance of feasibility studies -demand stimulating promotion -increased provision of credit tor productive end-uses -complementary measures to equalize villager opportunities to use electricity

-involvement of rural popuiatien in implementation and management of the project

-decreasing transmission costs and losses -load-factor increasing activities, such as fertilizer and lee production

-encouraging consumption in off-peak periods

lmplementation of a muHi-purpose SHP project, where the generation of electricity is combined with, tor example, irrigation or direct mechanica! use of water power, enables more villagers to benefit trom the impacts and stimulates rural development in a more direct way.

The use of electric appliances depends on their comparative advantage. That advantage can be promoted through:

-decreasing the price of electricity -decreasing the price of the appliance -improving availability -decreasing complexity -decreasing system dependency problems -decreasing repair and maintenance costs -taking into account necessity and traditional habits -lncreasing convenianee -providing demonstratien effects

Stimulation of use of appliances for productive purposes can be achieved through:

-appropriate conneetion policy -rationed distribution of capacity -electric appliance and machine availability stimulating policies, such as promotion, subsidies and credit facilities.


Measure 5 Overall impact of SHP on village and villager level can be improved through:

-stimulating electricity dernand for household and commerce

-stimulating electricity demand for farms, agro- and other industry

-increasing availability of production factors -increasing availability of local infrastructure and social services

-providing marketing facilities -decreasing the price of energy -improving reliability of power supply -taking into account initial level of development -taking into account local attitudes and skilis -providing information about use of electricity -stimulating participation of village population in implementation of the SHP project


chapter 85

integration

methad of data collection

Data must be colleeteef to come to conclusions concerning impacts of SHP and recommendations. With respect to data collection, Bennen states: "the human reality must be apprehended by a variety of viewpoints, not by one afone, because this very reality is always a part of a construct, always in part an image, and only by eneauraging ditterenee in perspective and approach can one obtain the needed riches of imagery, and, consequently, theory• [Bulmer, 1985). Although somewhat lyric, this conclusion holds true, especially for data coneetion in developing countries. In many cases the reliability of official data soureescan seriously be questioned. Furthermore, the validity of information gathered through interviews is influenced by many disturbing factors, both trom the interviewer's and the raspondent's side (see Chapter C4). In observation, personal interpretation precedes the actual data, that therefore can only be of indirect and presumptive value.

Overlapping data sourees might increase the reliability of information. Inlegration of quantitative and qualitative approaches offers means to cross-check data and enables the researcher to come to conclusions about the reliability of each data source. lntegration of data coneetion techniques has consequences for data analysis and interpretation. lt inevitably complicates data evaluation and therefore emphasizes the descriptive nature of the methodology. Although this reduces the researcher's opportunities to come to quantitative conclusions, the reliability of the research conclusions and it's value for policy makers will increase.

In the case of data coneetion tor evaluation of SHP projects, tour, partially overlapping data sourees will be used.

1. Official data available trom government or other sourees (such as BPS (National Office for Statistics) and PLN at both district and village level) are gathered.

part B I methad of data coneetion 52

2. Key-informants are used as a souree of data on macro village level. Interviews with lnfluential persons, such as chiefs, village headmen, elders, patrons, government officials, agricultural and other extension workers, village co-operation leaders and community social workers are carried out.

3. Observation of the use of hydro power at the different village levels (agriculture, industry, public and private consumption) gives information about Impacts and makes cross-checking possible.

4. Most important data souree is the surveys, carried out in three target groups, agriculture, industry and private consumers. The target population consists of, respectively, farmers, entrepreneurs and househeld heads. Precoded questionnaires are used for data analyzing convenience.

More information about data coneetion methods and, for example, operationalization of variables, questionnaires and data analysis can be found in Part C, Case Studies and in the Appendices B and C.

part B 1 methad of data coneetion 53

chapter 86

impacts

aims

summary

The methodology of the SHP impact evalustion is baseet on the research questions tormulateet in Chapter A 1 :

o What is the impact of Small Hydro Power on rural productive capacity and social aspectsof the rural community?

o How can that impact be improveet?

So impacts of SHP on village level must be describeet. Therefore a model of the way the village society uses SHP is constructeet. Two categories of uses are important; productive and consumptive uses. Fourteen groups of appliances are identifieet. In each group an inventory is made of the direct and indirect impacts. In the impact matrix all categories and impacts are presenteet.

In order to come to evalustion of a SHP project, the impacts must be compareet with the aims of the parties involveet in SHP lmplementation. Objectives of development co-operation bodies, governmental bodies, local entrepreneurs and the rural population are lnvestigated and described. They are listeel in the aims matrix, which is constructeet the same way as the impact matrix is.

Possible measures to improve impact of SHP projects are tormulateet after a comparison of the objectives and the impacts that are most likely to occur.

The impacts and the possible measures must be investigated through data colleetien in speeltic projects. A multi-method approach is selecteet to increase reliability of data and make cross-checking possible. Official data sources, interviews with key-informants, observation and surveys will provide intermation to come to conclusions.

part B I summary 54

part C

chapter C1

1.1 national electrification programme

small hydro power in indonesia

Befere discussing SHP development in lndonesia, it is necessary to focus on the national electrification programme. That is because SHP falls under the responsibility of the State Electricity Corporatien (PLN). lndonesia's electrification programme aims at supplying electricity for 23% of the villages in 1990. In 1986 17% of the villages and 8% of the households had an electricity connection. Several institutions are involved in rural electrification programmes. The Ministry of Mines and Energy is charged with the overall planning and development of energy resources in the country, while PLN, the State Electricity Corporatien under the Ministry of Mines and Energy, is responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of electric power. Also the provincial and sub-province governments, village associations, foreign aid groups and private suppliers play some role in the various projects.

The National Energy Co-ordination Board (BAKOREN) is charged with co-ordination of energy policy between the ministries involved. Among the targets formulated by BAKOREN are:

o stimulate development of renewable energy resources o raise welfare of rural and urban popuiatien o encourage economie and industrial activities o increase the general standard of living through socio

economie growth o make energy available to all regions and within each

region in lndonesia

PLN's focus in electricity supply is on grid extension. Until now only Java, Bali and parts of Sumatra have electricity grids, due to the costs of transmission and capacity losses because of the scattered popuiatien in other parts of the country.

part C I shp in indonesia 56

PLN-Ranting Painan

1.2 planning, construction and operatien

Economie conslderatlons may point to development of local grlds around a few towns rather than emphaslzing geographical equlty over a wlde area. In order to be able to serve the needs of the people In these parts, the PLN divided the country lnto 11 districts (outside Java), each of them coordlnated by the PLN-Wilayah (regional office), which is supported by PLN-Cabang offices (sectors) and many PLNRanting offices (branch). In spite of that decentralization, PLN has limited coverage because electriclty Is only available to villages with accesslble road conditions.

Targets for electrification projects are formulated In the five year development plans, Repelitas. Annual PLN targets, derlved from these plans, consist of the number of villages to be electrified. In that pollcy, the quantitative targets are more Important than the qualitative ones. Proposals for projects come from the reglonal offices or are presented by PLN departments. PLN takes lnto consideratlon factors as the potentlal demand, level of development and posslbllities for future grief extension.

Funds for project financing originate from loans from International ald funding, govemment financlal resources, PLN resources, local loans and partlclpation of the regional

part C I shp in Indonasla 57

1.3 role of small hydra power

government. PLN manages the construction of the projects. A contractor is selecteel and local participation in construction is guaranteeel through a presidentlal decree, stating that all projects smaller than Rp. 500 mil. (US$ 300,000) must be implementeel by a local contractor. Local participation then depends on availability of supplies (such as bricks, cement and ether materials) and skills.

On basis of the popuiatien density and the expecteel demand, the local grid is designeel and implementeel. PLN states that in most cases, about 50% of the village popuiatien is conneeteel during the construction. The conneetion rate usually grows with about 8% per year, depending on the location of the local grid and development of the demand. The PLN pricing policy is to establish uniform prices throughout the country. People that want a conneetion must pay a conneetion fee, the amount of which depends on the conneetion capacity. The monthly tariff is different tor each category of users and the conneetion capacity and purpose. Different tariffs are chargeel for private consumers, local entrepreneurs and government institutions.

Next to a fixeel monthly tariff, eensurners must pay tor the use of electricity per kWh. Categories and prices are shown in Table C7.

Due to the large amounts of rainfall and the many mountainous regions, lndonesia has an enormous hydra power potential. In the National Hydra Power Study of 1983, 1 ,210 schemes were identifieel with a total potentlal of about 75,000 MW. A breakdown of power potentlal by island is presenteel in Table C1.

table C1: Breakdown of hydra power potentlal by island in Indonasla [RN-SHP-news 1, 1986).

lsland

Sumatera Java Kalimantan Sulawesi lrian Jaya Outer islands

Existing

616 MW 528 MW 30 MW

181 MW

Planned

1,013 MW 1,651 MW

72 MW 155 MW

13 MW

part C I shp in indonesia

Undeveloped

13,959 MW 2,020 MW

21,479 MW 9,847 MW

22,385 MW 1,053 MW

Total

15,588 MW 4,199 MW

21,581 MW 10,183 MW 22,371 MW

1,054 MW

58

Although Indonesla's hydro power history started in 1923, the number of schemes in oparation does by far not cover the potentials. Less attention was given to SHP development in the past, mainly because of the low energy prices.

During Repelita I (the first five year national development plan 1969/70- 1973/74) through to Repelita 111 (1980/81 - 1984/85) 34 schemes were implemenled with a total capacity of 8,035 kW.

The experience gained by that development, led to the ability to produce locally manufactured turbines and experience in implamenting and oparating SHP projects. Although SHP represents only a very small portion of power supply in terms of capacity, it can serve unique needs as remote villagescan benefit trom SHP electricity supply, without dependenee on fuel supplies. SHP replaces or supplements diesel generators in rural areas and may use existing irrigation canals. Project preparatien and implementation actlvities are carried out by the Central Project Office under PLN. This office receives project proposals trom the regional governments (site identification, and reconnaissance survey) and formulates own proposals (identification of potentlal demand centre and investigation of possible hydro power generation sites). The lndonesian government provides funding for the construction. Feasibility and design studies are paid with own resources, consisting of part of the PLN-profits and credits from local and international banks. Also some projects are supported by bilaleral aid funds trom countries such as France, ltaly, the United Kingdom and Japan.

Several small (less than 100 kW) projects are implemenled through private initiative or through the Regional Development Offices in co-operation with local universtties or technological institutions. Future objectives are to develop another 37 schemes under Repelita IV (1984/85- 1989/90). Those projects will mainly be implemenled with standardized capacity and equipment, in order to reduce costs and simplify oparation and rnaintensnee procedures.

part C 1 shp in indonesia 59

chapter C2 site selection

During the preparatien perioei in Jakarta, under the authority of the PLN-LMK, sites had to be selected to be investigated in the fieldwork perioel. As stated in the previous chapter, 34 sites are implemented in lndonesia, which are shown in Table C2.

To be able toselect appropriate sites, no restrietlans were glven by the PLN authorities. Since the list of sites presented in Table C2 was the only lnformation available about the projects, saveral PLN-LMK staff membars were interviawed to gather additional inforrnation. After removing the sites that were too small (only sites with a capacity larger than 100 kW were interesting, because smaller capacity means little possibilities for different applications) and skipping those sites that were a grid-connection, 12 projects remained. Of those projects, flve were on the outer islands Sulawesi and lrian Jaya, and therefore too difficult to reach.

Of the seven projects that rernained now, I decided to select two. More than two projects could not be investigated in the perioei of time available.

I preterred to select two projects in the same district, that were not too old. That way it might be easier to arrange visits and get local assistance. So the Koto Anau project (No. 17) and the Muarah Labuh project (No. 30) were selected. I was told that the Muarah Labuh project was in technica! difficulties, but this would not cause any difficulties tor the research objectlves. Bath sites are located in West-Sumatra, in the same region and at about 150 km distance trom eachother. They also are within reasanabie travelling distance trom Jakarta. They bath are implemented tor isolated rural electrification. Furthermore the Minangkabau people in WestSumatra are relatlvely well educated, so co-operation might be better and some people might even be able to speak English aswell.

part C I site selection 60

table C2: List of existing small hydra power projects in lndonesia [PLN-documentation]

No. Project name Province Installed Year in capacity oparation

1 Karang Asem I Bali 30 kW 1969 2 Balapusuh Central Java 16 kW 1969 3 Talaga I West Java 200 kW 1970 4 Kota Anung Lampung 60 kW 1972 5 Maron East Java 80 kW 1972 6 Karang Asem 11 Bali 100 kW 1973 7 Ngargoyoso Central Java 60 kW 1973 8 Sungai Puar West Sumatra 60 kW 1974 9 Takslala Sopeng South Sulawesi 80 kW 1974

10 Ruteng East Nusatenggara 120 kW 1974

11 Munte North Sumatra 80 kW 1976 12 Sidourip Bengkulu 100 kW 1976 13 Sawito South Sulawesi 540 kW 1976 14 Pontak North Sulawesi 60 kW 1977 15 Wamena I lrian Jaya 120 kW 1977 16 Tanggul East Java 60 kW 1977 17 Koto Anau West Sumatra 160 kW 1978 18 Narmada West Nusatenggara 120 kW 1978 19 Pakis Baru East Java 120 kW 1978 20 Tenga North Sulawesi 180 kW 1979 21 Tonjong Central Java 200 kW 1979

22 Ma ja West Java 88 kW 1979 23 Lempur Jam bi 88 kW 1980 24 Wonodadi Central Java 210 kW 1980 25 Mejagong Central Java 575 kW 1980 26 Haruyan South Kalimanten 172 kW 1981 27 Bajawa East Nusatenggara 160 kW 1981 28 Angkup I Aceh 378 kW 1983 29 Talangkrasak Yogyakarta 320 kW 1983 30 Muarah Labuh West Sumatra 400 kW 1984 31 Sawidago Central Sulawesi 120 kW 1984 32 Angkup 11 Aceh 378 kW 1985 33 Kepala Curup Bengkulu 1000 kW 1985 34 Hanga Hanga Central Sulawesi 1600 kW 1985

part C I site selection

Remarks

Too small R Too small E Grid extension p Too small E Too small L Too small I Too small T Too small A Too small

Too small Too small R Too far away E Too small p Too far away E Too small L

I T

Grid extension A Too far away Grid extension 2

Too small Too small R Grid extension E Grid extension p

E L

Grid extension I Grid extension T

A Too far away Grid extension 3

Too far away

61

chapter C3

3.1 planning

data collection

After site selection in PLN-LMK, Jakarta (Chapter C2), I visited PLN-Wilayah office in Padang, West-Sumatra, tagether with an official trom the PLN Project division in Jakarta. Our purpose was to introduce me to local PLN authorities and to collect additional intermation about the projects that were selected.

Previously expected difficulties were confirmed in Padang. One year ago the Koto Anau electricity grid was connected with the West-Sumatra provincial grid. Now the local SHP-generator only functioned as a stand-by. In Muarah Labuh, the secend site, technica! difficulties had caused a three year gap in electricity supply, which in times of eperation only was available during the evening and night time. Obviously research in Muarah Labuh would not provide the data I was looking for. An official in PLN-head office, Jakarta, had told me about another project in West-Sumatra, Salido Kecil, and this site seemed to be an interesting alternative. lt was operated by a private entrepreneur. Electricity was sold to the local PLN, that organized distribution as well.

I decided to concentrale data colleetien on the two most promising projects, Koto Anau and Salido Kecil. Koto Anau might still be interesting, because impacts were achieved through SHP introduetion anyway. And on the ether hand at this moment I had no alternatives, because all arrangements were made and tormalities completed. In PLN-Wilayah office some characteristics of both projects were collected and tagether with PLN-staff members both sites were visited.

They both seemed to be potentlal sourees of interesting information. I planned to stay one-and-a-half month in each village to be able to collect appropriate data and to become tamillar with local habits and problems. This period should also offer me the opportunity to cbserve uses and impacts of electricity and gain the confidence of local key-informants.

part C I data colleetien 62

3.2 official data

3.3 observation

My lnterpreter, Eddy Mawardi, would follow me during the entire research period. He was bom near the capital of WestSumatra and spoke Bahasa Indonasla (lndonesian National Language), Bahasa Minang ~ocallanguage) and English.

In coneetion of the data trom government institutions, three sourees were important. First source, the PLN, provided some information about characteristics of both projects, although many data were incomplete or not available. As for the other sources, an overview of interesting information will follow in Chapter C4. In BPS (National Office tor Statistics), I received some general data about both sites. These data were useful to check the information received trom the third source, the village headmen. In Koto Anau, which is a Kenegarian, a village consisting of eleven srnall villages, six of those villages were selected tor research. The Koto Anau electricity grid only covered those six villages. Data collection in the five remaining villages would have been less lnteresting and might have been lmpossible in the period of time available. In Salido Kecil only one village headrnan was in charge. Together with my interpreter I interviawed all village headmen before starting the surveys. We asked permissJon tor our survey actlvities and collected as rnany data about the villages as possible, to obtain a general impression of village characteristics.

The role of observation, initially thought to be important, turned out to be less relevant. All applications of SHP electricity were elaborately covered by the surveys. Therefore observatlon of certain community aspects only was necessary to obtain conclusions on certain impacts of electricity use and to formulate recommendations. For this purpose, remarks made during conversations withand between villagers gave clues which could not be obtained otherwise. I met many villagers during the time I spent In bars in the eveningtime. Starting listening only, people got used to my presence. This gave me the opportunity to raise topics interesting tor my research. Of course this inforrnation had to be handled with care. lt could not be used at face value because the nature of our relationship might have prompted certain people to give information and others not to do so. With these restrictions in consideratlon, lnforrnal discusslons were a valuable source.

part C 1 data coneetion 63

3.4 surveys

3.4.1 study variables

electricity

electricity impact

general characteristics

Originally I planneet to take three samples. One In the private consumption sector, one amongst farmers and one in rnanufacture. In the two villages no use of electricity appeared to exist in the non-consumption sectors, so only the househeld survey remained. For this sector the study popuiatien was defined as "all households that live in the six villages in Koto Anau that are electrified and all households that live in Salido Kecil". A household, as sample unit, is defined as •a group dependent on a single earner or on more only if they live in the same house•. In the following sub-chapters the study variables, the sample design and the questionnaire design will be discussed.

Study variables derive trom the methodelogy described in Part B. In the househeld survey two principal questions arise:

01. What are the direct impacts of the use of electricity? 02. What are the social and economie ditterences between

users and non-users of electricity?

The following variables are to be operationalized:

Reason tor not using electricity

Age of electricity conneetion Average monthly tariff Number of appliances

Use of appliances Opinion on price of electricity Emancipation

lncome Number of househeld members Education Ouality of house Migration Participation Centacts outside village

Operationalization of these theoretica! variables will be dealt with in Chapter C4 and Appendix C.

part C 1 data coneetion 64

3.4.2 sample design

stratified

systematic

sample size

The proparty of an electricity conneetion is assentlal in answerlng the two principal questlons In the househeld survey. That variabie divides the study popuiatien lnto two "mutually exclusive and clearly distinguishable subgroups• [Cochran, 1953]. The samplescan be drawn stratified with these subgroups as strata. That way there is no chance that the presence of each subgroup In the samples differs from lts presence in the study population.

Stratified sampling is more convenient since in both villages lists are available with households that own an electricity connection. In these strata units can be selected randomly. PLN-customers are arbitrarily located on the lists, so it is possible to make a systematic selection of households that own an electricity connection. The study popuiatien divided by the number of households to be interviawed provides a constant k. A subset of the popuiatien is constructed by randomly selecting one of the first k households of the list and then lncluding every k-th element thereafter. For the households which had no electricity connection, a more complicated and less arbitrarily method had to be used. Since no list of these units existed, the villages had to be divided into different areas and for each area a eertsin number of respondents had to be selected. This had to be done considering the number of respondents in these strata and the geographic properties in each village.

In survey research it is common to determine sample sizes on basis of previous research results. An indication about the standerd error of popuiatien key-variables (in many cases income is used), can be used to calculate sample sizes. A sample has to be a reflection of the actual population. The accuracy of that reflection can be calculated on the basis of two factors, determining the precision of the sample. A margin of error between the sample and the popuiatien mean, d (percentage), as wellas a risk, a (also a percentage), which is agreed upon, that the actual error is larger than d. In this case no previous knowledge about characteristics of our or cernparabie populations is available. Also a pilot research to obtain an indlcation of standerd errors of keyvariables is not feasible in the period of time available. Therefore a rule of thumb had to be used. lt was assumed that key-variable means were normally distributed and that the standard errors of the popuiatien means could be approximated by the standard errors of the key variables divided by the square roots of the sample sizes:

s.e.2 (X) = a2 * s.e.2 (x) I n

part C 1 data colleetien 65

3.4.3 questionnaires

3.5 key informants

There are two ways to calculate the confidence intervals for the sample means. By cernparing both ways the sample size can be determined.

We chose tor a reliability of 95% that the sample mean differs less than 25% from the population mean. That leads to:

1.96 s.e. (X) = .25 s.e. (x)

and therefore:

n = 62

The variables listeel in chapter 3.4.1 were to be measured in questionnaires. Variables were operationalized in items and for each item a question was formulated. Since many questions tor households with an electricity conneetion were not applicable for households that don't use electricity and vice versa, two different questionnaires for each stratum were designed. For almost all questions different coded answer categories were designed for data analysis convenience. Selection of the appropriate answer would be task of the interviewer. Reading the different possibilities might have led to suggestion, which, especially in a third world context, could seriously have damaged reliability. Questionnaires were fermuiateel in English (see Appendix B) and with assistsnee of PLN staff in Jakarta translated into lndonesian language. Linguistic equivalence was checked in co-operation with my interpreter.

After data colleetien in the househeld surveys I planned to collect information among important persons in each village. A list of key-informants could be provided by the village headmen and discussed with the local PLN-representative and other people. Objective was to discuss the following questions:

1. What problems are important in this village? 2. What do you think is the best solution for these

problems? 3. What does electricity mean tor lts population? 4. Are you satisfied with the uses of electricity?


3.6 eperation

5. What kind of small industry exists in this village? 6. Do you think there are possibilities tor ether small

industry? 7. What role could sleetricity play in these possibilities? 8. What are the basic problems concerning development of

srnall industry? 9. Are there any ether comments interesting tor my

research, you would like to add?

Incentive was to discuss these questions in a tree and unstructured way in order to enable the respondents to teil their story and to coneet as much intermation as possible.

After collecting general intermation in PLN and BPS offices, I moved to the research villages. First I and my interpreter visited the village headmen. There we asked tor parmission and co-operation tor our data colleetien activities. A list of key-informants in each village was received. Using the list of households that have an electricity connection, a sample of each stratum was drawn. Sample units were visited and a spokasman in each househeld was looked for. In most cases that spokasman turned out to be the househeld head or his wife. In order to increase reliability, we tried to involve all househeld members present in giving answers. After finishing data colleetien in the first stratum, we selected sample units among the households that had no electricity. When data colleetien in the househeld survey was finished, key-informants were visited. They all knew about our incentives now and therefore were willing to provide interesting information.


chapter C4

4.1 official data

4.1.1 bps and village headmen

data analysis

Data analysis has to serve the objectives of the research. Basically these are twofold. In the first place the thesis has to provide intermation which could reduce future policy problems. Secondly, for methodological purposes it has to investigate the relationships assumed to be present in the research models. Obviously these objectives cannot be strictly separated. Also the value of the intermation should not be overestimated. Due to saveral constraints data colleetien depth had to be restricted and only a ene-moment observation was feasible.

The basic objectives and the constraints discussed, imply that the nature of the research cannot be more than descriptive. Policy evaluation also need not to have more than that. In this chapter the most important data to be analyzed are presented. Many intermation arrived at here will be (was) used in Part A of this thesis.

Official data were collected for two different objectives. The village headmen were interviawed and the BPS offices were visited to obtain a general picture of both villages. Secondly PLN-information was collected about both projects. The next two sub-chapters will be dealing with these distinct sources.

To coneet intermation on general characteristics of both villages, BPS departments (National Office for Statistics) were visited and all village headmen concerned were interviewed. Data were compared and listed (see Table C3).

part C I data analysis 68

table C3: Koto Anau and Salido Kecil village characteristics. 1l

[Village headmen and BPS offices]

The six villages in Koto Anau

Bal ai Tanah Tim-

Tinggi Kurai Lembang Pasar Sirah bulun

Number of children Male 2) 150 45 84 172 213 190 Fe male 188 49 97 163 227 225

Number of adults Male 195 48 182 132 188 176 Female 290 76 224 213 271 257

Popuiatien Male 345 93 266 304 401 366 Female 478 125 321 376 498 482

Popuiatien Total 823 218 587 680 899 848

Number of households 3l 147 62 80 120 152 150 Number of people per househeld 5.6 3.5 7.3 5.7 5.9 5.6

% Employment in Farming 75 Services 5 Business 10 Nonfother 4) 10

73 81 6 1

14 10 7 8

80 74 69 6 5 7 4 17 17

10 4 7

Children (male %) Adults (male%)

Number of mosques 5l Number of warungs (barjshop)

Number of primary schools Number of lower secondary schools

Number of motorcycles Number of cars

Number of trucks and busses

Km to the coast Km to Padang (capita! city)

Bus hours to Padang

1) End 1987 data. BPS and village headmen data were quite similar,

since BPS office receives most data from the village headmen

2l Children: people under 20 years of age

3) Number of households probably unreliable, since many households move

without notifying the village headmen

4) In most villages the employment figures are estimations

by the village headmen

5l Mosques are both 'Mushallah2' (smal! mosques)

and 'Meshid2' (main mosques)

part C I data analysis

Total

Salido Koto Anau Kecil

854 396 949 448 921 430

1331 512 1n5 826 2280 960

4055 1786

711 301 5.7 5.9

75 85 5 6

12 6 8 3

47 47 41 46

27 3 38 21 12 2 2 1

19 14 21 4 26 8

75 12 75 108

1.25 2.5

Koto Anau Salido

Kecil

69

4.1.2 pin data

For Salido Kecil lnterpretation was easy since that is only one tormal village. In Koto Anau the local electricity grid covers six of lts aleven villages. Only these six villages were selected and therefore only data concerning these villages were important. All six village headmen and wamen (two were female) were interviawed and trom now on these six villages will be referred to as Koto Anau.

Apart trom these general village characteristics, in Koto Anau some general intermation on the agricultural production and livestock possession was received. The annual agricultural production of the three most important crops, rice, clave and sweet potatoes, was respectively 3000, 230 and 120 tons per annum. The villagers raised 71 buffaloes, 161 cows, 495 goats and about 3250 birds. I gained the impression that these figures were based on estimations of the village headmen. Therefore their reliability must be questioned. In Salido Kecil these figures were nat available. For all figures received trom BPS and the village headmen it must be taken into account that many of them were based on estimations and the methad of colleetien tor each village headman might have been different.

I first tried to obtain feasibility studies tor bath projects. These studies have been carried out befare project appraisal, but were nat available anymore. I rnanaged to capture a schedule with cast factors which determine the investment and operatien casts tor SHP projects (Table C4).

table C4: Cast factors tor financlal appraisal of small hydra power village electrification. 1)

[Boom, 1988] (in 1 000 US$)

Civil works Qntake, canal, forebay, penstock and powerhouse)

Plant equipment -turbine Transport costs lnstallation and preparatien ~sts Distribution lines (first year) ) Distribution lines (second year) Total investment costs: Direct man-power management and overhead, colleetien expenses and maintenance: per year

42.2 12.0

.23

.48 31.3 6.6

92.81

2.35

1) Prices estimated for a hydro power generator with a capacity of 75 kW.

2) Distribution lines cost US$ 5400/km with the length from load centre to the hamiets 7 km.


Table C4 data were calculated by a Dutch consultant, that was carrying out a research on village electrification in Java. I presumed these data would be more accurate than the figures provided by the PLN authorities.

PLN intermation was gathered in five different PLN offices. Data were collected in PLN Pusat (head office) in Jakarta, in PLN Wilayah (regional office) in Padang, in PLN Cabang (sector office) in Solok (for the Koto Anau data) and PLN SubRanting (sub-branch office) in Koto Anau and in PLN Ranting (branch office) in Painan (for the Salido Kecil data). A list of different sleetricity categories and prices is shown in Table C5. These sleetricity prices are charged throughout the country (except Jakarta). In both Koto Anau and Salido Kecil all sleetricity eensurners were in category R1 and could not use more than 450 W (that means a monthly demand charge of US$ .57).

The Koto Anau SHP plant started oparating in 1980. lnitially four Koto Anau villages were connected to the grid, Balai Tinggi, Lembang, Pasar and Timbulun. In 1987 Kurai and a few months later Tanah Sirah followed. In Tanah Sirah sleetricity only is available in the evening and night time. In Salido Kecil the SHP generator started oparating end 1981. The number of connections in each village is presented in Table C6.

Standard housing connections by PLN (450 kW, 220 V) cost US$ 52.83, when the houses are located within a distance of 30 meters from the distribution grid. This installation includes a fuse box with a circuit breaker, three connections for an electric lamp, two small soekets and the wiring in the house. When people live more than 30 meters from the grid, they have to pay for the additional distribution lines.

In some villages (like Lembang and Timbulun in Koto Anau) people have the opportunity to use the KLP (village sleetricity credit). This KLP is granted by the PLN, the lndonesian national bank (BRI) and somatimes the local KUD (village cooperation). Breakdown and conditions are as follows:

Distribution system House wiring and instanation lnsurance premium

US$ 18.-US$ 20.50 US$ 1.--

Total

Interest rate Grace period Repayment period

part C I data analysis

US$ 39.50

6% per annum one month

4 years (monthly payment)

71

table CS: Electricity prices in the different tariff categories. [PLN-c:locumentation]

(maximum) de mand (Watt)

Social 1l 60 2 75 3 100 4 125 5 150 6 175 7 200 8 250 up

Private 1 50-500 2 501-2200 3 2201-6600 4 6601 up

Commercial 1 250-2200 2 2201 - 200000 3 200001up

4

lndustry 0-99999

2 100000 - 200000

3 200001 up

4 5000000 up

Government 1 250-200000 2 200001 up

Public Ughting

demand charge energy tariff

(US$jmonth) (US$/kWh)

.93 1.16 1.51 1.92 2.26 2.61 3.02 1.26 I kW .026

1.26 I kW .042 1.26 I kW .051 2.21 I kW .076 2.21 I kW .095

2.21 I kW .080 2.21 I kW .090 1.38 I kW 2) n: .095

d: .060 .184

1.38 I kW n: .058 d: .036

1.38 I kW n: .055 d: .034

1.26 I kW n: .054 d: .034

1.18 I kW n: .046 d: .029

2.21 I kW .058 1.18 I kW n: .060

d: .039

.046

1l For social institutions such as clinics and mosques

2) n stands for night: from 18.00 until 22.00h d stands for day: from 22.00 until 18.00h

part C 1 data analysis 72

table C6: Number of electricity connections in Koto Anau and Salido Kecil. [PLN]

Balai Tinggi 68 Kurai 10 Lembang 64 Pasar 62 Tanah Sirah 42 Timbulun 98

Koto Anau (total) 344

Salido Kecil 62

PLN staff also showed a rural daily load curve (Table C7). This curve displays the sleetricity consumption as a percentage of the total capacity tor every hour of the day. Obviously this graph represents an ideal situation, since the lead-factor, the consumption as a percentage of the total capacity tor one day or more, in that situation would be .47 (tor a generator of 120 kW capacity, in that case of the 24 * 120 = 2880 kWh, 1350 kWh, 47 %, is used).

table C7: Ruralload profile (electricity consumption as a percentage of capacity tor every hour of one typical day). [PLN]

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

time: 12:oo 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:oo 12:oo


table CS:

For the Koto Anau project, a list was provided with the monthly electricity production from April 1983 until April 1987. In that month the Koto Anau electricity grid was connected to the West-Sumatra provincial high voltage grid and the SHP generator functioned as stand-by. Earlier data were stored that carefully that nobody turned out to be able to find them. Salido Kecil performance data were not collected by the PLN, because that SHP generator was privately owned. The Koto Anau data indicate a significant decrease of the average leadfactor after February 1985. That is because after that month electricity only was available in the evening and night time (with an average of 14.5 hours a day). Many months with small or no production indicate small reliability and technica! problems (see Table CS).

Monthly electricity production and lead-factors of the Koto Anau SHP generator. [PLN]

Monthly electricity production in kWh and lead-factor in percentage

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

January 28747 10540 11746 32.2 0 11.8 13.2

February 27197 33943 11074 11058 32.6 42.1 13.7 13.7

March 10275 14420 12298 10254 11.5 16.1 13.8 11.5

April 31575 9400 10323 11477 36.5 0 10.1 11.2 13.3

May 41241 7281 12410 46.2 0 8.1 13.9

June 37038 24182 13501 10683 42.9 28.0 15.6 13.5

July 44470 30736 1on6 10729 49.8 34.4 12.1 12.0

August 35661 13910 12091 30n 39.9 15.6 13.5 3.4

September 35236 9835 12359 40.8 11.4 14.3 0

October 12120 8580 11750 1150 13.6 9.6 13.2 1.3

November 26980 10482 11429 4294 31.2 12.1 13.2 5.0

December 2n47 657 12125 3551 31.1 7.4 13.6 4.0

Average lead-factor: 36.9 16.2 14.1 8.5 13.0

Average lead-factor over the entire period: 17.3

partC I data analysis 74

4.2 household survey

4.2.1 chi-square test measures of association

In the househeld survey most data were gathered on ordinal or nominal level. The theoretic variables listed in Appendix C were calculated using data trom the samples. Now the relationships between those variables as shown in the models in Tables 84 and 85 must be tested.Tests of significanee like the t-ratio and the analysis of variance, require interval level measures and cannot be used. In this case it is necessary to apply so-called non-parametrie tests. These tests use the frequencies of scores on two variables in cross-tabulation or contingency tables. Different categories of each variabie are determined and for each set of categories, the frequency of observations is calculated. Let us consider the two variables "Education" and "Eiectricity connection" as an example. Education will be divided into five categories; No schoeiing, Primary school, Lower secondary school, Higher secondary school and College and university. Electricity conneetion obviously is divided into two categories; Yes and No. The resulting cross-tabulation table for data obtained trom the sample in Koto Anau is presented in Table C9.

A commonly used non-parametrie test is the chi-square technique. This technique measures the distinction between expected and observed frequencies In cross-tabulation tables. In case of the example in Table C11 the first cell displays an observed frequency (fo) of 0. The expected frequency is calculated by the formula:

Expected frequency fe Row total * Column total Number of observations

7 * 15 63 1.7

table C9: Contingency table tor Education vs. Electricity conneetion (number of people)

No electricity Electricity Row total Education: No schooling 0 7 7 Primary school 7 4 11 Lower secondary school 5 9 14 Higher secondary school 3 18 21 College or university 0 10 10

Column total 15 48 63

part C 1 data analysis 75

4.2.2 other measures of association

The formula tor chi-square is:

Chi-square = X2 = (fo - fe)2

I: t. = 17.07 In this example.

This value indicates a significant relationshlp between Education and Electricity conneetion wlth a reliabillty of more than 95%. Disadvantage of the chi-square value are that 1t has no direct interpretation and that lts value does not say anything about the direction of the relation. Therefore 1t is impossible to compare lts values tor different cross-tabulatlans meaningfully. To overcoma this difficulty, some measures of association are lntroduced, so defined astolie between o and + 1. Most important are:

The mean square contingency coefficient: t=X2 /N

The Pearson coefficient of contingency: P = J(()e/N)/(1 +X2/N))

Cramer's V: V= (X2/N)/min{r-1,c-1}

where r is the number of rows and c is the number of columns.

The major problem wlth all the above measures is that they have no obvious probabilistic interpretation in the same way as, tor example, the correlation coefficient [Everitt, 1977]. Still interpretation of the obtained values Is ditticuit This has led saveral researchers to suggest a number of coefficients that are interpretable, and therefore cannot be based on Chi-square.

Other coefficlents of association can be divided into two classes [Everitt, 1977] [Goodman, 1977]. First category is for nomina! data only, that is tor data that have no underlying order (tor example the village where the household lives). Second is tor ordinal data, data that can be ordered (like Level of education, which is ordered trom low (no schooling) to high (university)). All these coefficients arebasedon optima! prediction. Most important maasure tor nomina! data is Goodrnan and Kruskall's lambda. lt is based on the question: "How much does a knowledge of the classification of one of the variables improve one's ability to predict the classification of the other variable?" [Everitt, 1977]. A problem wlth this maasure is that lts value can be mlsleadingly low in case of


distributions that are far from uniform. Measures for tables with ordered categories can be used for the data from the househeld survey, because all variables can be ordered. Three of these measures are most commonly used, the tau stalistics of Kendall, Somer's d and Goedman and Kruskal's gamma. They are based on the number of concordant pairs P, these pairs of observations which have rankings on the two variables in the same direction, and the number of discordant pairs a, these pairs of observations which have rankings on the two variables in the reverse direction. Formulas for P an a are:

P = I: I: fab * ( I: I: fa'b' ) a b a'>a b'>b

a I: I: fab * ( I: a b a'<a

I: b'<b

fa'b' )

For the contingency table in Table C10, Pand a are calculated as fellows:

p = 0*(4+9+18+10) + 7*(9+18+10) + 5*(18+10) + 3*(10) = 503

a = 7*(7+5+3+0) + 4*(5+3+0) + 9*(3+0) + 18*(o) = 164

The measure of association, S = P-a, must be standardized to lie in the range from -1 to + 1. In this respect the three measures mentioned earlier differ.

Kendall's tau stalistics offer three different ways to standardize:

2S Taua = N(N-1)

2S Taub = ./[(P +a+Xo)(P+a+ Yo))

2mS Tauc = N2(m-1)

Where Xo represents the number of observations tied on the first variabie only and Yo the number of observations tied on the secend variabie only. N is the number of observations and m is the minimum of the number of rows and columns.

Somer's d gives a measure of association in the asymmetrie case, that means that we deal with an explanatory and a dependent variable.


Standardization is as fellows:

s dyx = P+a+Yo

Disadvantage of these coefficients remains that their values cannot be interpreted. That is different for Goedman and Kruskal's gamma which therefore will be used for the househeld survey data. lt is basedon the following philosophy. Suppose that two individuals are taken from the popuiatien at random. Each individual falls into some cell (Aa,Bb) of the contingency table. Suppose the first individual falls in the (Aa1,Bb1) cell and the secend in the (Aa2,Bb2) cell. lf there is independenee one expects that the order of the a's has no conneetion with the order of the b's. In case of positive association one expects that the order of a's would generally be the same as the order of b's. lf there is high counterassociation one expects that the orders would generally be different.

Now the probabilities for like and unlike orders can be considered.

Plike = Probability {(a1 <a2 and b1 < b2) or (a1 >a2 and b1 >b2)}

Punlike = Probability {(a1 <a2 and b1 > b2) or (a1 >a2 and b1 <b2)}

Gamma is calculated as fellows:

Gamma = (Pnke- Punlike)/(Piike + Punllke)

and has the following interpretation; "the probability of like order less the probability of unlike order when two individuals arechosenat random• [Goodman, 1977). ExpressedinPand a. explained earlier, the Gamma formula is:

Gamma = (P - a)j(P + a) = S /(P + a)

lt takes the value + 1 when the data are concentraled in the upper-left to lower-right diagonal (because in that case a = 0) and -1 when data are concentraled in the upper-right to lowerleft diagonal (P = 0). Gamma bacomes zero in case of independenee (P = a), but the converseneed not held.


4.2.3 sample variables Household survey data were gathered through the household questionnaire(s) (see Appendix B). For data analysis convenianee the answer-categories for each individual question were precoded. Theoretica! variables were operationalized using the codes (assignment of each variabie is described in Appendix C). With this operationalization scores on each variabie were obtained. Many of these scores resulted trom underlying continua, but they are not relevant because they originate trom ordinal or nominal data.

T o be able to list the variables in contingency tables, different categories had to be designed for each variable. For variables which were assigned using different items, interpretation of the scores was impossible, so tor those variables the 133 respondents in Koto Anau and Salido Kecil were divided into four more or less equal groups. The variables which had interpretative value, were divided into reasonable categories. That resulted in the following subdivision for each variabie (Table C10).

table C10: Answer categories for the variables and number of respondents in each category. 1>

.Q&...1 Cat. 2 ~ Cat. 4 Cat. 5 #resp. #resp. #resp. #resp. #resp.

lncome (Rp) 0- 10000 1 OQ00-15000 15000-20000 20000 U(;! 24 50 26 33

Education Q..:.1 1 - 2 2-3 ~ 4-5 18 38 32 34 11

Quality of house 0- 1.33 1.33- 1.67 1.§7- 2.43 2.43 U(;! 32 34 33 34

Electricity conneetion ..Q_ ...!.. (not recoded) 55 78

Migration ..Q_ 0-.5 &..:...LQ 1.0 U(;! 37 34 22 40

Participation ..Q_ Q..:..2:Q §.Q- 12.0 12.0 U(;! 48 28 27 30

Contacts outside ..Q_ 0- 1.0 1.0-2.0 2.0 U(;! village 39 39 19 36

Years electricity 2) Q..:.1 1 - 4 4-6 6-8 §..!:!.Q

10 14 17 24 13 Conneetion price (Rp) 2l 0-30000 30000-60000 60000-90000 90000-120000 120000 U(;!

20 10 16 19 13 Opinion on price 2

) 0- 1 1 - 2 2-3 ~ i.!m 7 29 17 18 7

Average monthly tariff (Rp) 2l 0-2000 2000-3000 3000-4000 4000 U(;! 24 26 14 14

Number of appliances 2l ..Q_ ...!.. g_ .1. 4 (not recoded) 17 11 15 32 3

Use of radiojtelevision 2l ..Q_ Q..:.1 1 - 2 2-3 ~ 12 11 15 17 23

Emancipation 2) Q...:...& .5- 1.0 ~ .1&...YQ

32 29 7 10

11 Lower limit condition: greater; upper limit condition: equal or less. 2

) Only for households with an electricity connection; number of respondents therefore equals 78.


table C11:

KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK

table C12:

1.

KA 1.00

SK 1.00

KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK KA SK

Using the categorization in Table C10, gamma coefficients for each relation were calculated (Table C11 and C12).

Gamma coefficients tor the variables in Table 84 in Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK).

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

1.00 .47 .38 .45 -.07 .42 .38 1. Education 1.00 .42 .44 .51 -.13 .27 .20

1.00 .12 .03 .26 .14 .13 2. lncome 1.00 .15 .33 -.26 .04 .41

1.00 .91 -.13 .25 .16 3. Quality of house 1.00 .62 .05 .25 .18

1.00 -.23 .46 .48 4. Electricity conneetion 1.00 .28 .54 .61

1.00 -.06 .02 5. Migration 1.00 .23 .16

1.00 . 28 6 . Participation 1.00 .10

1.00 7. Cantacts outside village 1.00

Gamma coefficients for the variables in Table 85 in Koto Anau (KA) and Salido Kecil (SK).

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

.51 .16 -.15 -.09 .43 .38 .18 .31 1. In co me

.60 .43 -.02 .02 .63 .42 .23 -.18 1.00 .17 .02 -.16 .31 .39 .32 . 27 2 . Education 1.00 -.12 .07 .26 .64 .50 .38 .26

1.00 -.25 -.11 .11 .23 .11 -.05 3. Years electricity 1.00 -.82 -.17 .02 .35 .65 -.22

1.00 .35 ·.15 -.19 .08 -.23 4. Conneetion price 1.00 -.16 .31 .14 -.44 .21

1.00 ·.04 .13 -.06 -.09 5. Opinion on price 1.00 .09 .06 .08 -.18

1.00 .58 . 05 .22 6 . Monthly tariff 1.00 .58 .28 .29

1.00 .38 .41 7. Number of appliances 1.00 .52 .24

1.00 .14 8. Use of radio and telavision 1.00 .24

1.00 9. Emancipation 1.00


With these gamma coefficients we can cbserve the relations in the two tables, designeet in Chapter 83 (Table 84 and 85). These tables were baseet on the two principal questions in the househeld survey:

1. What are the social and economie differences between users and non-users of electricity?

2. What are the impacts of the use of electrlcity?

Variables and relations are presenteel in Table C13 to C16.

table C13: Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients rasuiting trom question 1 in Koto Anau .

.------ -.07----------,1

~ quallty -.: ~ migration .12 of ho~:;

electrlclty .47 .03 conneetion

~--------.~-----~


.46 particlpation '---------- .42 --------1

KotoAnau

table C14: Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients rasuiting trom question 1 in Salido Kecil .

.------ -.13----------,1

~ quallty .05 ~ migration .15 of ho:se .28

electrlclty .42 .33 conneetion

~--------.~-----~


.54 particlpation ~-------- .27 ---------1

Salido Kecil


table C15: Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients resultlng from question 2 in Kata Anau.

years electrlclty

.35

.31

average monthly tariff

KotoAnau

.16 -.15 -.09 .43

.05

.58

.38 number of appllances lncome .41

use of radio and televislon .51

I .39 .32

educatlon .27 emanclpatlon

table C16: Househeld survey relations and their gamma coefficients rasuiting from question 2 in Salido Kecil.

years electrlclty .43 .42 number of appllances -.02 lncome .24 .02 .63

use of radio and television -.16

I .50 .38

.09 educatlon .26 emanclpatlon

.28

.58

Salido Kecil


4.3 key informants

4.4 validity and reliability

In each village a number of various people were selected as key-informant. Most important objective in interviewing these people was to discuss possibilities to improve overall SHP impacts. Criteria for selection were tormal importance in the village, government representation andjor informalleadership or influence.

Among the tormal leaders are:

o village headmen or women

o headmen or women of government based organizations, such as:

o LKMD (institute tor resistance of the village community)

o KAN (traditional habits office) o KUD (village co-operation) o PKK (village women co-operation) o PPL or BPP (rural extenslon centre)

Other tormal or intermal leaders were:

o religieus leaders o village elders o important shop keepers o rice-mill owners o PLN-representatives

In Koto Anau all these people were interviewed. In Salido Kecil no KAN, KUD or PLN offices were based.

Befere finishing this part, I want to discuss these subjects. Elaborate discussJon would be beyend the limited scope of this thesis, but some comments have to be made. First the two subjects will be explained.

Validlty of the research is related to the theoretica! construct and methodology of the research. lt is the extend to which theoretica/ concepts possess reality and explanatory values towards properties in reality and to which operationalization of those concepts is accurate. Reliability of the research is related to research design and operation. lt is the extend to which the results are independent of the technica/ effectuation (Soesjes, 1970).


With respect to validity, the following assumptions are to be considered:

o the categorization of uses is correct o the impacts assumed, can appear in reality o the aims of the parties invalveel are correct o there is no bias in selection of the sample units o this leads to equality of sample estimates and

popuiatien values o the theoretica! concepts are well defined o the methad of data analysis is correct

With respect to reliability, the following assumptions are to be considered:

Data collection:

o tormulation of questions is clear and without suggestion

o there is linguistic equivalence between the English and the lndonesian questionnaire

respondent characteristics:

o motivation is optimal considerations: casts in time and energy

altruism intellectual challenge desire for self-expression attitude and expectations background characteristics

o lnformation is available considerations: lack of memory

lack of insight language problems

o privacy is nat invaded considerations: fear of subject

suspicion of interviewer hostility

interviewer characteristics:

o no selective listening o optimal motivation of interpreter o good sensitivity for information o no suggestion In questioning o correct interpratstion of answers of bath

respondent and interpreter


Data analysis:

o no coding errors o correct computer Input o no calculation errors o correct use of results In recommendations

In Chapter A3, Evaluation of the methodology, the validity considerations will come up again. As explained above no further evaluation will be thought appropriate.


chapter es summary

After a description of the energy situation in lndonesia, with special attention to SHP development, the two sites were selected in the West-Sumatra province. In Koto Anau, a SHP generator with a capacity of 120 kW was lnstalled, that now only functioned as a stand-by because the village was connected to the regional grid in 1987. The Salido Kecil generator (capacity 250 kW normally) was privately owned, but PLN took care of the electricity distribution.

Four methods of data colleetien were used; colleetien of official data, observation, surveys and interviews with keyinformants. In this part special attention was given to the househeld surveys. The private consumption sector was the only sector where significant electricity consumption was observed. So altogether 133 households were interviewed, in order to determine the relations assumed in Part B.

Relations were calculated, using Goedman and Krukal's Gamma, that stands tor the probability of like order less the probability of unlike order of scores on two variables of two lndividuals, whoare chosenat random. Relations were calculated and used to formulate the results and recommendations in Part A.

part C I summary 86

appendix A

A.1 description

technology of small hydro power

Hydrapower for energy production is a well developed technology. Direct use of this souree of power is possible, for Instanee for rice hulling, sawing or pumping water. Hydrapower Is mostly used for electricity production. lf electricity is to be used for machanical power production, the detour via electricity may be less efficient. About 30 to 50% of the available shaft-power trom the turbine is lost by the conversion via generatorand motor. This especially is the case in the low power range. Hydrapower generation can sametimes be combined with irrigation systems. Exlsting irrigation canals can be integrated into a hydrapower project by proper (re-) design and construction.

Hydrapower installations are built in a large power range. In lndonesia, systems are distinguished in three ranges of power capacity, micro hydrapower (with capacities of less than 100 kW), small hydrapower (100- 5000 kW) and hydrapower (more than 5000 kW). International categories differ trom country to country and trom organization to organization. Also the narnes of the categories are different in rnany cases. This report deals with Small Hydro Power (SHP) generation, that is generation between 1 00 and 5000 kW.

Basically, a hydrapower station consists of a turbine, which transfers the potentlal energy of a flow of water passing it at a certain pressure (the head) to a generator, which generatas electricity.

For the SHP development from rivers, two types of schemes can be used:

o run-oft-river schemes o reservoir schemes

The type of scheme to be used depends entirely on the local situation.

appendix A 1 technology of srnall hydra power A1

A.2 run-oft-river schemes

Part of the riverflew is tappeel and feel by a channel to the penstock intake (the forebay). Thls channel generally runs parallel to the river at a lesser gradient, so that after some distance the channel level is well above the river level. This difference in level (head) is useel for the production of energy by leading the water though the penstock. The penstock is conneeteel to the powerhouse, where the turbine is located. The water is returneel to the river through the tailrace.

Run-off-river schemes are useel for base-load. They depend on the river's base-flow for continuous power delivery. The power production is a tunetion of the diverteel river-flow (measured in m3 ;sec) and the head (measureel vertically in meters). A small dam (weir) is useel to provide a little increase of the river level at the intake of the supply canal and guarantee sufficient inflow during periods of low river run-off.

A.3 reservoir schemes Here the construction of a dam Is requireel to create a storage reservoir. Dams are locateel in narrow gorges or at places with steeply sloping banks on both sides of the river. The upstream gradient of the river should be reasonably flat, preferably with a plane topography on both sides, in order to create a large reservoir volume for a small height of the dam.

The reservoir functions as an equalizer of the variabie flow of the river and as an energy storage in case the energy potentlal does not match the energy dernand pattern. The penstock connects the lower part of the reservoir to the turbine. Due to the considerable infrastructural costs, reservoir schemes can only be useel for SHP generation in special cases (for example in combination with irrigation schames or erosion control).

appendix A 1 technology of srnall hydro power A2

A.4 investment casts Toa large extend, the investment casts determine the price of energy production. Operatien casts are relatively small compared toother energy sources. lnvestment fora SHP project basically consists of two components, infrastructural and technica! investment.

The investment in civil works depends on the topography and site conditions. lt is impossible to give guidelines. In each case a design must be made, and that design must farm the basis for the estirnation of lnfrastructural investment casts.

For the casts of machanical and technica! equipment, worldwide experience with SHP is recorded. Provided locally built equipment is used, in lndonesia the total investment can remain between US$ 200 and 400 per kW capacity.

appendix A 1 technology of small hydra power A3

appendix B household questionnaire

2 A general intermation

3 8 electricity conneetion

5 c electrical appliances

6 D employment and income

8 E contactsjparticipation

12 F migration

15 G interviewer report

17 codebaak

20 questionnaire for people without an electricity conneetion

appendix 8 I questionnaires 81

A general information We would like you to give some information about the people that live in this household.

A 1 (A) Can you teil us how many people live in this house, including all family, servants, friends and other people that take food from the common kitchen?

(B) How many of those people are younger than 15 years?

(C) How many of the people older than 15 years can read or write?

(D) What is the highest level of school completed by any of the househeld members?

0. No schoeiing 1. Lower primary 2. Upper primary 3. Lower secondary 4. Upper secondary 5. Collegejuniversity 6. Other (specify)

A2 (A) Did you ever go to school?

1. Yes 2. No (skip to A3)

(B) What is the highest grade you completed?

0. No schoeiing 1. Lower primary 2. Upper primary 3. Lower secondary 4. Upper secondary 5. Collegejuniversity 6. Other (specify)

appendix B I questionnaires

6 1

44 29 41 12 _Q

133

6 2

27 20 20

3 _Q 78

82

B electricity conneetion

We would now like to know sarnething about the house, your family Jives in.

A3 Is this house owned or rented by the household, or provided free?

1. Provicled free 2. Rented 3. Owned 4. Other (specify)

A4 (A) What is your souree of drinking water?

0. Stream, dam, canal 0. Rainwater 1. Public well 1. Public tap 2. Tube well 2. Private tap

(8) How far away is the souree from this house?

A5 What kind of toilet do you have?

81

0. Field, backyard, river 1. Pit toilet (public) 2. Water closet (public) 3. Pit toilet (private) 4. Water closet (private) 5. Other (specify)

How many years ago dicl you get an electricity conneet ion?

42 3

88 _Q

133

94

35

_.1 133

129 1 0 2 1

_Q 133

82 Could you give us some information about the price of electricity?

(A) What was the price of the connection? (8) What is the monthly tariff?


1) More than one answer

possible.

(A) (6) 63 fill in codes: 1. yes 9 51

2. neutral 6 5 3. no 63 22

78 78

(A) Has electricity brought financial problems to your family?

(6) Does your family now pay less money tor fuel?

64 What is your opinion on the price of electricity?

1. Very cheap 2. Cheap 3. Right 4. Expensive 5. Very expensive 9. Don't know

65 What people have electricity in this village?

1. All people 2. The richer people 3. People that own establishments 4. People that live near the grid 5. Modern people 6. Don't know or ether

1 13 53

9 2

_Q 78

82 47

0 0 0

_A 133

66 What do you think is the most important impact of the use of electricity in the village? (select no more than two categories)

1. Economie development 2. Impravement of quality of life 3. Reduction of migration 4. More employment 5. More income 6. Safety I comfort 7. Evening activity 8. Convenianee 9. Don't know or ether

7 4 0 0

13 5 9

47 _g

1) 87


C electrical appliances C1

C2

C3(A)

C3(B)

(C)

C4(A)

(put the codes in the table)

Which electric appliances do you own?

light radio telev iron fridge 1. Yes 78 55 45 46 3 2. No 0 23 33 32 75

lf you don't use one of these objects, why not? (select one category)

light radio telev iron fridge 1. Use is too expensive 0 0 1 3 2 2. Object is expensive 0 16 28 21 58 3. Traditional reasens 0 0 0 0 1 4. Not available 0 0 0 0 0 5. Don't need 0 4 7 5 14 9. Don't know _Q _Q _Q _Q _Q

0 20 36 29 75

Does electricity save time in your household?

1. Yes 71 2. No (skip to C4) 7 9. Don't know _Q

78

Through what appliances?

light iron 1. Yes 69 21 2. No ~ M

78 78

How rnany hours do you think it saves per week?

Do you ever look television or listen radio or tape?

1. Yes 2. No

90 43

133

(B) How many hours do you look television in one day?

(C) How rnany hours do you listen radio or tape in one day?

appendix B I questionnaires B5

D employment and income


possible.

appendix 8

CS What can you teil us about the use of other fuels in your househeld since electricity was connected?

(fill codes: 1. more

(A)Candles (8)Animals (C)Wood (D)Charcoal

2. about the same 3. less 4. don't use

(E) Diesel (F) Oil (G) Gas (H) Other (specify)

(C) (F) 1 1

68 18 1 6 ~ 53 78 78

We would now like to ask you some questions about your job.

01 What was your main type of work during the last twelve months? (select categories)

0. Unemployed 1. Agriculture 2. Manufacture 3. Commerce 4. Service 5. Other

1)

02 (only for employed respondents)

9 100

0 34 14 _Q

157

How many hours do you normally work in that job in one week?

03 We would like to have some intermation about your income.

(A) How can you best estimate it?

1. Per hour 4. Per month 2. Per day 5. Other (specify)

3. Per week

I questionnaires 86

03 (B) How much money do you earn per week?

(C) Is your income more, less or about the same as the income you received before electricity came to your villa ge?

1. More 2. Less 3. About the same 9. Don't know

(D) Why is that?

1. Change of work 2. All incomes increase 3. Prices are increased

(skip to 04) (skip to 04)

4. There are more skilied people 5. Other (specify) 9. Don't know

15 3

60 _i! 78

0 2 0 0

13 __a 18

04 Has introduetion of electricity caused any change in income tor the villagers?

1. Yes, decrease 2. No 3. Yes, increase tor all villagers 4. Yes, lncrease tor some villagers 5. Yes, lncrease tor the rich villagers 6. Other (specify) 9. Don't know

05 (A) Are the possibilities to get work changed since electricity was brought to your village?

1. I ncreased 2. No change (skip to (C)) 3. Decreased 9. Don't know

appendix B 1 questionnaires

0 26

6 37

2 1

_§ 78

17 61

0 _i! 78

B7

E centacts partic i pation

05 (B) Why is that?

1. Development of the village 0 2. New enterprises are settled 12 3. Migration 0 4. Economie causes 0 5. Use of new appliances 1 6. Other (specity) 3 9. Don't know _1

17

(C) Is it easy to find a job around here?

1. Yes 24 2. Neutral 0 3. No 48 9. Don't know _Q

78

We now would like to have some information about other places that you have visited.

(repeat each of the questions of E1 for the following categories: provincial capital Padang; other islands;

put the codes in the table)

E1 (A) Have you ever visited ........ ?

1. Yes 2. No

(B) How often did you visit ........ ?

E1 (C) How do you usually get there?

1. Walk 2. Cart/animal 3. Bicycle 4. Bus or boat 5. Airplane 6. Other (specity)

Padang 93 40

133

Padang

0 0 0

90 0

_a 93

Other islands 25

108 133

Other islands 0 0 0

20 2

_a 25

appendix B I questionnaires 68

(D) What is the main reason for these visits?

1. Business 2. Sales 3. Education

Padang

23 0 0

52 10 4

Other islands

5 0 1

4. Family visit 5. Taurist trip 6. Shopping 7. Other (specity) ~

92

E2 (A) How often do you go to the village meetings?

1. At least once a week 2. At least once a month 3. Once in three months 4. Less

(B) Has that changed since electricity was brought to your village?

1. No 2. lt increased 3. lt decreased

E2 (C) Do you think you are in the position to influence village decisions?

1. Yes 2. No

14 2 0 ~ 25

6 35 44 48

133

56 22 ~ 78

37 96

133

(D) When you do not agree with a village decision, what do you do?

1. Nothing 2. Accept the decision 3. Protest 4. Ask advice 9. Don't know


67 42 16 5 ~

133

89

E3 Do you ever ask for advice in the following cases? lf you do, who do you ask that advice?

(A) Growing of foed:

1. Never 2. Extension werker 3. Other government institutions 4. Other farmers 5. Other persons 9. Don't know

(B) Buying and selling goeds:

1. Never 2. Shopkeeper 3. Government institutions 4. Other persons 9. Don't know

Does anyone ever ask your advice for:

fill in codes: 1. yes 2. no

(C) Growing of foed

(D) Buying and selling goeds

27 37

7 7

_Q 78

68 0

9 _1 78

(C) (D) 20 20 58 58 78 78

E4 Since electricity was brought to your village, do you have more contact with ether villagers?

1. More 2. Less 3. No change (skip to E6)

ES Why is that?

81 0

52 133

1. People have more time now 2 2. People realize co-operation is better 1 3. People stay in their houses o 4. Streetlight makes more centacts possible 23 5. People look telavision together 17 6. Other (specify) 37 7. Don't know _1

81

appendix B 1 questionnaires B10

E6 (A) Are there any co-operatives in this village?

1. Yes 106 2. No (skip to E7) 27

133

(B) Which ones? (note the two most important mentioned)

(C) Do you beleng to any of them? (1) (2)

1. Yes 89 19 2. No ~ ~

107 24

(0) How often do you go to their meetings?

fill codes: 1. never 2. somatimes 3. often 4. always

(1) (2) 12 1 18 9 52 7 _J_ _g 89 19

E7 (A) Are there any government credit facilities for people such as you?

1. Yes 2. No (skip to next section)

39 94

133

(B) Have you ever used these facilities?

1. Yes (C) For what purposes?

1. Buy agricultural inputs 1 0 2. Buy food o 3. Buy machinery for work 3 4. Buy househ. appliances 0 5. Business 6. Other (specify) ...1Q

(skip to next section) 23

appendix B 1 questionnaires 611

F migration

E7 (B) 2. No (0) Why nat?

F1 (A)

(B)

(C)

(0)

F2 (A)

1. Couldn't get guarantees 2 2. lt is toa complicated 8 3. There's na money for me 0 4. Interest is toa high 2 5. I did nat know how 0 6. Oon't need 3 7. Other (specify) _1

16

Have you ever lived in another village?

1. Yes 46 2. No (skip to F2) ~

133

How long ago did you move to this village?

Where did you live befare rnaving to this village? (Province ; Townjvillage)

Why did you move to this place? (select up to two categories)

1. Job transfer 5 2. No werk in ether place 6 3. Taseek a better jobfineome 9 4. Ta get education 0 5. Ta get married 10 6. Have ether relatives here 11 7. Poor facilities in previous residence 0 8. Good facilities in this village 4 9. Other (specify) _1

46

Oid any persen from your househeld leave to live in another place in the past five years?

1. Yes 2. No (skip to F3)

68 65

133



possible.

F2 (B) What were hisjher jtheir main reasans tor leaving this place? (choose up to two categories)

1. Job transfer 2. No work here 3. T o seek a better job or income 4. To get education 5. To get married 6. To join family 7. Poor facilities here 8. Other (specify)

9. Don't know

(C) Where did hejshejthey move after leaving this villa ge? (Province ; Townjvillage)

16 1

44 6 2 0 0 1

_Q 1) 70

F3 (A) Did you and your househeld ever have plans to move to another place?

1. Yes 2. No (skip to F4)

(B) Where did you plan to move then? (Province ; Townjvillage)

19 114 133

(C) What were the main reasans to stay in this village? (choose up to two categories)

1. Job 2. No work in other place 3. Facilities improved here 4. Financlal reasans 5. Other (specify)

3 3 0 4 ~ 19

appendix B 1 questionnaires 813

F4 (A) How many people do you think have moved to this village since electricity was brought here?

1. Many 2. Some 3. A few 4. None (skip to (C))

9. Don't know (skip to (C))

(B) Why do you think they moved here? (choose up to two categories)

1. Job transfer 2. No work in other place 3. Toseek a better jobfineome 4. To get education 5. To get married 6. Have other relatives here 7. Poor facilities in previous residence 8. Good facilities in this village 9. Other (specity) or don't know

1 5

20 49 ~ 78

14 1 6 1 1 0 0 0 ~ 26

(C) How many people do you think have left this village since electricity was brought here?

1. Many 2. Some 3. A few 4. None (skip to (E)) 9. Don't know (skip to (E))

(D) Why do you think they left this village? (choose up to two categories)

1. Job transfer 2. No work here 3. Toseek a better job or income 4. To get education 5. To get married 6. To join family 7. Poor facilities here 9. Other (specity) or don't know


52 6

10 7 ~ 78

0 13 49

1 2 6 1

_g 68

814

G interviewer report

F4 (E) Since the introduetion of electricity do more, less or the same number of villagers leave?

G1

1. More 2. The same 3. Less 9. Don't know

Were ether persons present during the interview?

(A) Children under 6 (B) Older children (C) Other relatives (D) Other adults

G2 Where was the interview taken?

1. I nside the house 2. At the doorstep 3. At someone else's house 4. In a werksetting 5. Outside 6. Other (specify)

50 21 5

_g 78

G3 What do you think of the reliability of the responses?

1. Reliable 2. Unreliable 9. Don't know

G4 How was the co-operation of the respondent?

1. Good 2. Neutral 3. Bad


G5 How did the respondent understand the questions?

1. No difficulty 2. Neutral 3. Much difficulty

G6 (A) How long did the interview take?

(B) On what date was it taken?

G7 lndicate observations and events that might insome way be helptul in understanding the interviewing situation.

G8 Do you have any other comments about the situation and the co-operation that may be important to add?

G9 How would you describe the house?

G 1 0 What do you think, is the total area of the house (including size of the land) ?

G11 What material was mainly used in constructing the walls, roots and floors of the house? (choose main material code)

Thatch, straw, etc. Dirt, clay, mud Wood Cement, bricks, stones Tile Metal, tin, zinc Other

Walls

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

G 12 (A) What is the number of floors of the house?

Roots

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

(B) What is the number of rooms in the house?

appendix B I questionnaires

Aoors

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

816

A GENERAL INFORMATION C3 (A) 1-2, 9

A1 (A) __ (8) __ (C) __ persons C4 (A) 1-2

(0) 0-6 (C) 1-3

A2. (A) 1-2 C5 (A) 1-5, 9

(8) 0-6

A3 1-4

A4 (A) 0-2

(8) meter

A5 Oo-5

(8) 1-5, 9 (F) B , .... (C) 1-5, 9 (G) 1-5, 9

(0) 1-5, 9 (H) B (E) 1-5, 9

D EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME B ELECTRICITY CONNECTION

81 years 01 DJ 0-5

82 (A) rupiah 02 hours

(8) rupiah 03 (A) 0 1-5

B3 (A) 1-3 (8) week

(8) 1-3 (C) 1-3, 9 (0) D 1-5, 9

B4 1-6, 9

B5 1-6

B6 1-9

C ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES

APPLIANCE C1 C2 C3 (C) C4 (8C) 1-2 1-2 hours hours

Lamps

Radio

Telavision

Iron

Refrigerator

Other


E CONTACTS / PARTICIPATION

E1 (A) (Bfyear) (C) (D)

Padang

Other islands

(C)

(D)

E2 (A) 1-4

(B) 1-3

(C) 1-2

(D) 1-4, 9

E3 (A) 1-5, 9 (C) B 1-2

(B) 1-4, 9 (D) 1-2

E4 1-3

E5 1-7

E6 (A) 1-2

(B) 1. 2.

(C) 1. 1-2 2. B 1-2

(D) 1. 1-4 2. 1-4

E7 (A)

(B)

(C)

(D)


F MIGRATION

F1 (A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

F2 (A)

(B)

(C)

F3 (A)

(B)

(C)

F4 (A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

(E)

0 1-2

~1·9 2

1-9

0 1-2

1 1-5

1-4, 9

1-9

1-4, 9

1-9

1-3, 9 '----

years

province

town, village

province

town, village

province

town, village

818

G INTERVIEWER REPORT

G1 (A) G11 (CIRCLE CODES) Walls Roots Floors

Thatch, straw, etc. (B)

Dirt, clay, mud 2 2 2

(C) Wood 3 3 3

Cement, bricks, stones 4 4 4 (0)

Tile 5 5 5 G2 1-5

Metal, tin, zinc 6 6 6 G3 1-2, 9

Other 7 7 7 G4 1-3

G5 1-3 G12 (A) floors

G6 minutes (B) rooms

G7

G8

G9

G10 ------ square metres


(This questionnaire is used for people that have no electricity connection. The number of each question is equal to the number of that question in the previous questionnaire, if it was asked to the people with electricity too.)

We would like you to give some information about the people that live in this household.

A 1 (A) Can you teil us how many people live in this house, including all family, servants, friends and other people that take food from the common kitchen?

(8) How many of those people are younger than 15 years?

(C) How rnany of the people older than 15 years can read or write?

(0) What is the highest level of school completed by any of the household members?

We would now like to know sarnething about the house, your family lives in.

A3 Is this house owned or rented by the household, or provided free?

We would now like to ask you some questions about your job.

01 What was your main type of work during the last twelve months?

02 (only for employed respondents) How many hours do you norrnally work in that job in one week?

85 What people have electricity in this village?


87 (A) Why don't you have an electrlcity connection? (specify)

(8) till in codes: 1. yes 2. neutral 3. no)

Do you think electricity would reduce your tamily's expenditure on fuel?

(C) How much oil for lighting do you use in one day?

C1 Do you own a television or radio/tape?

C4 (8) How many hours do you look television in one day?

(C) How many hours do you listen radio or tape in one day?

The rest of this questionnaire is equal to parts E (Contacts and Participation), F (Migration) and G (Interviewer Report) of the questionnaire for households with an electricity connection.


appendix C variables

Variabie name:

Variabie assignment Comments or assignment of assisting variables

(A1A etc. stands tor the answers on question 1A of part A of the questionnaire in Appendix B)

number of members:

A1A

percentage of people that cannot read or write:

X1 = (A1A- A1 B- A1C)/(A1A- A1 B)

education:

A1D *(1 - X1)

income:

038

IJ Koto Anau, electricity

~ Koto Anau, no electricity

1111111 Salido Kecil, electricity

m Salido Kecil, no electricity

appendix C I variables

28

16

12

education

1 2 3 4 6

income

18888 28888 15888 88888

C1

quality of house:

(G10 * G12A- 24)/93

+ (G11walls + G11roofs-6)/2

+ (A3- 1)/2 + (A4A + AS/2)/3.5

surface; 24 = min{G10*G12A}; 93 = median{G10*G12A-24}

material; 6 = max{G11walls + G11roofs}

proparty facilities; 3.5 = max{A4A + AS/2}

quality of house

contacts outside village:

38

25

20

Ep * (Epp + 1) + Eo * (Eoo + 1) * 2

Ep,o = 0 if E1 B = 0 Ep,o = 2 if 6 < E1B < 12 Ep,o = 3 if 12 < E1B"<24 Ep,o = 4 if 24 < E1 B -Epp,oo = 0 if E1D = 4 Epp,oo = 1 if E1D /= 4

1.33 2.43 1.67 5

Participation:

38

25

20

(4- E2A)* 3 *(E2d + 1) + E6B1 * (3-E6C1) + E6B2 * (3-E6C2) + (E6D1 + E6D2)/2

centacts outside village . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.................

E2d = 0 if E2D = 1 or 9; E2d = 1 else E6B1,2 = 0 if no answer is given E6B1,2 = 1 if answer = Gotong Royong or LKMD E681 ,2 = 2 else

participation

20

16

12 .......................................... ·············-

15 e

10 4 -··· %

5 % %

e e -··· :;.:

e 1 2 28 e 6 12 45

appendix C I variables C2

migration:

2*F1c*(2- F1A)/(F1B + 1) + (2-F2A)* F2c + (2-F3A)* F3b

Years electricity:

61

Conneetion price:

B2A

Average monthly tariff:

C2B

years sleetricity

24

20

16

1 4 6

E KotoAnau

~ Salido Kecil

8 10

F1 B counted in years F1c = 1 if F1C inside West-Sumatra F1 c = 2 if F1 C outside West-Sumatra F2c = 1 if F2C has only one answer that is inside West-Sumatra F2c = 2 if F2C has two answers inside West-Sumatra or only one that is outside West-Sumatra

F2c = 3 if F2C has one answer inside West-Sumatra and one outside F2c = 4 if F2C has two answers that are outside West-Sumatra F3b = 1 if F3B inside West-Sumatra F3b = 2 if F3B outside West-Sumatra

migration

20

16 .............

12 .... .....

8 .... .....

4

0 0 0.s 1

conneetion price

4

30000 90000 210000 60000 120000

appendix C 1 variables C3

Number of appliances:

C1 radio + C1telev C1 ... = 1 if appliance is owned + C1 iron + C1fridge

Use of radio and television:

C4B + C4C/2

Emancipation:

C3Ciights + C3Ciron

Opinion on price of electricity:

24

20

16

12

20

16

12

8

4

0

84 + (2 - B3A) + 838 - 1

number of appliances

0 1 2 3

emancipation

0.5 1 1.6

4

3

appendix C I variables

18

16

12

9

6

3

average monthly tariff

0 ~----------------------~ 2000 3000 4000 10000

20

16

12

18

16

12

0

9 ·················

6 .... . . . . . . . .

3 ~· 0

1

use of radiojtape and telavision

1 2 3

opinion on price of electricity

2 3 4

8

····~··· .... . ..

8

C4

appendix D literature

Agricultural Univarsity Wageningen (1981): essays in rural sociology. Wageningen, AUW.

Ashe, Jeffrey (1978): assessing rural needs: a manual for practioners.

Cambridge, VITA. Anker, A. (1981):

research on women's roles and demographic change; survey questionnaires for households, women, men and communities with background explanations. Geneva, ILO.

Austin, Vincent (1981): rural industrial development; a practical handbook for

planners, project managers and field staff. London, Cassel.

Bennet, Spencer & David Bowers (1977): multivariate techniques for social and behavloral

SCiences. London, Macmillan Press. Bie, S. de & R. Visser (1986):

onderzoek puntsgewijs. Meppel, Boom. Bilsborrow, A., A. Oberai & G. Standing (1984):

migration surveys in low income countries; guldelinea for survey and questionnaire design. London, Croom Helm (ILO).

Bruin, Bert de (1988): small hydro power, an assessment of socio-economie

Impacts. Eindhoven, CICA/UNIDO. Bulmer, Martin & Donald P. Warwiek (1983):

social research in developing countries. Chichester, John Wiley & sons.

Castley, Dennis J. & O.A. Lury (1982): monitoring and evalustion of agricultural and rural

development projects. Washington, World Bank. William G. Cochran (1953):

sampling techniques. Chichester, John Wiley & sons. Dalton, Bill (1985):

indonesia handbook. Chico, Moon Publications.

appendix D I literature 01

Djeflat, A. (1985): the socio-economie impact of rural electrification In

algeria. Geneva, ILO wp.157. ESCAP (1982):

small scale hydropower in africa. Washington, ESCAP. ESCAP (1982):

guidelines for rural centre planning. Washington, ESCAP. Everitt, B.S. (1977):

the analysis of contingency tables. London, Chapman and Hall. Finsterbusch, K. (1983):

social impact assessment methods. Beverly Hills, Sage. Fluitman, F. (1983):

the socio-economie impact of rural electrification in developing countries: a review of evidence. Geneva, ILO wp.126.

Fritz, Jack J. (1984): small and mini hydro power systems. New York, Me. Graw-Hill.

Ghai, Dharam, M. Godfrey & Franktin Lisk (1979): planning for basic needs In kenya. Geneva, ILO.

Goodman, Leo A. & William H. Kruskal (1979): measures of association for cross classifications. New vork,

Springer Verlag. Grijpstra, B.G. (1976):

common efforts in the development of rural sarawak, malaysia. Wageningen, Centra for Agricultural Publishing and Documentation.

Holland, Ray E. (1983): micro hydro power for rural development. Kuala Lumpur,

UNI DO. Joshi, B. & R. Sinha (1982):

the socio-economie lmplications of micro hydro power systems in India. Geneva, ILO wp. 105.

Koninklijk Instituut voor de Tropen (1981): indonesie. Amsterdam, KIT.

Laura Batt, R. & Billie R. DeWalt: social sciences in the planning process: baseline data

collection in developing countries. Kentucky, coc. Lemmens, Lex (1987):

technology assessment for projects in developing economies. Eindhoven, CICA.

Levln, Jack (1977): elementary statistles In social research. New Vork, Harper &

Row. Urn, C. (1984):

the socio-economie impact of rural electrification in malaysia. Geneva, ILO wp.135.

Mackay, L & Voeler, B. (1980): the role of hydropower in rural development. Vienna, UNIDO.

Mueller, Daniel J. (1986): measuring SOCial attitudes. New York, Teachers College Press.

appendix D 1 literature 02

Müller, Thomas {1981): energy demand and social patterns In India -past and

future-. Karlsruhe, Fakultät für Wlssenschaften.

Nas, Peter {1987): migratie en plattelandsontwikkeling. lnwoo bulletin, June 1987.

Notodipuro, N. {1983): centralized versus decentralized systems of project

planning and the implementation of mhp development: the indonesian case. Vienna, UNIDO.

Peil, M. {1982): social science research methods. London, Hodder and Stoughton.

Porter, Alan L. {1980): a guidebook for technology assessment and impact

analysis. New York, North Holland. Reuling, Albert {1987):

dataverzameling en data-analyse. Baarn, Nelissen. RN of SHP {1983):

report of the third workshop on shp, kuala lumpur, malaysia. Vienna, UNIDO.

Scott, C., P. de Andre & R. Chandler {1985): conducting surveys in developing countries. Washington,

WSMS (Worldbank). Segers, J.G.H. {1983):

sociologische onderzoeksmethoden. Assen, Van Gorcum.

Sonquist, John A. & W. C. Dunkeiberg {1977): survey and opinion research: procedures for processing

and analysis. New Yersey, Prentice Hall.

UNDP {1979): rural development. New York, UNDP.

UNDP {1980): rural women's participation in development. New York, UNDP.

UNIDO {1987): annual report of unido 1986. Vienna, UNIDO.

USAID (1988): feasibility study for accelerated rural electrification project

second stage. Bangkok, USAID. Warwick, Donald P. & Charles A. Lininger (1975):

the sample survey: theory and practica. New York, Me. Graw-Hill.

Winarno, Budi (1985): the roles of village organizations in rural development:

analysis of the indonesian experience. Columbia, University of Missouri.

Software used: wordperfect 4.2 and 5.0 (1988)

WordPerfect Corporation, Orem, Utah U.S.A. harvard graphics (1987)

Software publishing corporatlon, Harvard, U.S.A. statgraphics (1987)

Statistica! Graphics Corporation, Rockville, Maryland, U.S.A.

appendix D I literature 03

eindhoven university of technology master small hydro ... · small hydro power : two project...

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