education policies and migration across european countries · education policies and migration...

Education Policies and Migration across EuropeanCountries

Ainhoa Aparicio-Fenoll and Zoë Kuehn

Collegio Carlo Alberto and Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

Giorgio Rota ConferenceTurin, June 20th 2016

Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 1 / 27

MotivationLow migration across EU countries

Free movement of labor is a fundamental right in the EU.

But migration across European countries remains very limited.I Annual migration rates across EU countries around 0.3% compared

to US state-to-state migration rates of around 2.4% (OECD, 2010).

Huge differences in youth unemployment rates among countriesof the European Union.

I Spain and Greece with almost 50%, Croatia and Portugal with35-50%, to Netherlands with less than 10%.

I US youth unemployment rates (2011): 7.8%(ND) - 25.8%(RI).

MotivationPotential explanations: Different languages

Variety of national languages and mobilityI Unlike in the US, languages spoken across EU countries differ.

I Different languages limit transferability of human capital.

Foreign language skills reduce problems of transferability:I Language skills are an important determinant of success in the

host country labor market; see Chiswick and Miller (2010) andDustman and Fabbri (2003).

I Language skills also improve labor market prospects in the homecountry.

MotivationPotential explanations: Educational attainment

Educational attainment and mobility

I U-shaped pattern in education and migration for Europeancountries.

I Larger fraction of individuals with medium/secondary education inEuropean countries than in the US.

MotivationEducation policies and migration

Education, language learning and migration are simultaneousdecisions.

Part of this decision is determined by education policies:I Compulsory schooling laws shift educational attainment for a

significant fraction of the population from low to medium levels

I 68% of Europeans learn(ed) foreign languages at school(Eurobarometer).

Education reforms that regulate compulsory education in terms oflength and curricula (including foreign languages) provideexogenous variation to education and language learning.

The impact of education policies is informative about how thequantity and content of education affects migration.

Summary

Addresses: Are migration flows influenced by education policies?

I Policy 1: Increasing the length of compulsory education.I Policy 2: Introducing foreign languages into compulsory school

curricula.

Sheds light on: The role of education in general and languageproficiency in particular for international migration patterns.

Data sources: Eurostat, Eurydice, EACEA, UN, etc.

Identification: Exogenous variation in education levels andforeign language proficiency caused by legislation changes.

Findings: While additional years of compulsory educationdecrease the propensity to migrate, foreign language proficiencyhas a significant positive impact on migration flows.

Summary

curricula.

Summary

curricula.

Summary

curricula.

Summary

curricula.

Related LiteratureThe effect of education on within country migration:

I Machin, Salvanes and Pelkonen (2012): positive effects for Norway.I Malamud and Wozniak (2010): mixed results for the US.I McHenry (2012): negative effects for the US.

Selection along education in international migration:I Borjas (1987), Fernández-Huertas Moraga (2011): Mexican

immigrants to the US are negatively selected.I Chiquiar and Hanson (2005): selection is positive.I Caponi (2010): u-shaped selectionI McKenzie and Rapoport (2010): selection depends on strength of

networks.

The effect of foreign language proficiency on internationalmigration:

I Adsera and Pytlikova (2012): linguistic distance negatively affectsmigration.

networks.

Theoretical considerations (based on Stark, 1991)

Two countries: Rich R and poor P

The level of education is θ

Expected wages depend on education:I In the rich country: WR(θ) = r0 + r1θ

I In the poor country: WP(θ) = p0 + p1θ

with r0 > p0 and r1 > p1

W̄R is the minimum wage in the rich country

Theoretical considerations

Foreign language proficiency k < 1

Degree recognition cost C

Two cases for migrants’ wages:I Migration & NO degree recognition: kW̄R

I Migration & degree recognition: kWR(θ) − C

Compare to NO migration: WP(θ)

Theoretical considerationsEducation and migration decisions

Theoretical considerationsAn increase in compulsory schooling

Theoretical considerationsAn increase in language proficiency

IdentificationChanges in the length of compulsory schooling

Refonn First cohon Changein Change in Expected Age at

potentially min. school years of change school

affected leaving age comp. in !SCED emry at

schoo/. the time

of the rejorm Austria 1962 1947 14 lo 15 8 lo 9 lo iSCED2 6 Belgium 1983 1969 14 lo 18 8 lo 12 lo ISCED3 6 Denmatk 197 1 1957 14 lo 16 7 lo9 loiSCED3 7 Pinland (Uusima) 1977 1966+ 13 lo 16 6 lo9 lo LSCED 3 7 Pinland (Eiela-Suomi) 1976 1965+ 13 lo 16 6 lo 9 toiSCED3 7 Pinland (lla-Suomi) 1974 1963+ 13 to 16 6 lo9 to lSCED3 7 Pinland (V ali-Suomi) 1973 1962+ 13 lo 16 6 lo9 to ISCED3 7 Pinland (Pohjois-Suomi) 1972 1961+ 13 lo 16 6 to9 to ISCED 3 7 Prance 1959++ 1953 14 lo 16 8 to 10 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Schleswig-Holslein) 1956 1941 14 lo 15 8 to 9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(H amburg) 1949 1934 14 lo 15 8 lo9 to LSCED 3 6 Gem1any( iedersachsen) 1962 1947 14 lo 15 8 lo9 to LSCED3 6 Germany(Bremen) 1958 1943 14 lo 15 8 lo9 lo ISCED3 6 Gem1any( ordrhein-Westphalia) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 lo9 lo ISCED3 6 Gem1any(Hessen) 1967 1953 14 lo J5 8 lo9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Rheinland-Pfalz) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 to9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Baden-Wurtenberg) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 to 9 to ISCED3 6 Gem1any(Bayern) 1969 1955 14 lo 15 8 to9 toiSCED3 6 Gennany(Saarland) 1964 1949 14 lo 15 8 to9 lo iSCED3 6 Greece 1975 1963 12 lo 15 6 lo9 to LSCED2 6 lreland 1972 1958 14 to 15 8 lo 9 to iSCED3 6 !tal y 1963 1949 11 lo 14 5 to 9 to iSCED2 6 Netherlands 1975° 1959° 15 lo 16 9 to 10 toiSCED2 6 Spain 1970 1957' 12 lo 14 6 lo8 to iSCED2 6 Sweden 1962 1950 .. 4/ 15 lo 15/ 1 8 to9 to ISCED3 6 or 7

Source: Brunello, Fort and Weber (2009)

IdentificationChanges in second foreign language instruction

ORGANISATION

Figure B3: Starting age and duration of second foreign language as a compulsory subject in pre-primary, primary and/or general secondary education, 2002/03, 2006/07, 2010/11

A foreign language is being phased in No compulsory second foreign language

Source: Eurydice.

Explanatory noteThis figure deals primarily with languages described as ‘foreign’ (or ‘modern’) in the curriculum. Regional and/or minority languages (see Figure B15) and classical languages (see Figure B16) are included only when the curriculum designates them as alternatives to foreign languages. The starting age refers to the second compulsory foreign language and reflects the normal age of students; it does not take into account early or late entry to school, grade repetition or other interruptions to schooling. The duration of provision refers to any language learnt. For 2002/03 and 2006/07, the figure shows the ages between which students should be taught two foreign languages as a compulsory subjects, according to official regulations/recommendations, even when this provision did not extend to all schools or to the whole age group during the reference year. In the case of 2010/11, the measure 'being phased in' (see the Glossary, Statistical Databases and Bibliography section) is indicated as such if it was still not fully implemented in 2010/11. For further information on the situation in 2010/11, see Figure B1. For a definition of ‘phasing in'; 'foreign language' and 'language as a compulsory subject', see the Glossary, Statistical Databases and Bibliography section.

STUDENTS ON SOME EDUCATIONAL PATHWAYS OR IN CERTAIN TYPES OF SCHOOLS MUST LEARN ADDITIONAL FOREIGN LANGUAGES

From the start of secondary education, some education systems offer different educational pathways for students, either within the same school or in different types of school. In these countries, there may be a difference between the number of foreign languages compulsory for all students and the number compulsory for students on particular pathways. Such differences are found in about half of all countries.

It is worth noting that in some of the countries (or regions within countries) where only one foreign language is compulsory for all students, those on particular educational pathways are required to

Data: Eurostat; Education, Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency

IdentificationIncrease in minimum school leaving age

Individual A: Born in country S, part of cohort O.Individual B: Born in country S, part of cohort Y.Individual C: Born in country I, part of cohort O.Individual D: Born in country I, part of cohort Y.Increase in minimum school leaving age in country S for cohort Ybut not O.Compare the difference in migration between cohort Y and cohortO between country S and country I (SO vs. SY) vs. (IO vs. IY).

IdentificationIntroduction of foreign language

Individual A: Born in country S, part of cohort O.Individual B: Born in country S, part of cohort Y.Individual C: Born in country I, part of cohort O.Individual D: Born in country I, part of cohort Y.Introduction of foreign language in compulsory school curriculumin country S for cohort Y but not O.Compare migration to country G where learned language isspoken: (SOG vs. SYG) vs. (IOG vs. IYG) to country N wherelearned language is not spoken: (SON vs. SYN) vs. (ION vs. IYN).

Data sourcesMigration:

Eurostat’s database complemented byI Germany 2009-2012: Statistisches Bundesamt; Data on flows of

foreigners to Germany by nationality and age group.I Austria 2010: STATISTIK AUSTRIA ; Migration flows (Inflows to

Austria and Outflows from Austria, by age groups).I UK 2008-2012: Office for National Statistics. Social Survey

Division; International Passenger Survey by age group andnationality.

Compulsory schooling:Brunello, Fort and Weber (2009); Murtin and Viarengo (2011);European Commission; Hörner et al (2007); Eurydice; UnitedNations; OECD; World Education Service; Schöpflin (1986);Tomich (1963)

Exposure to foreign languages in school:EC’s Education, Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency; EC’sDirectorate General for Education and Culture; Eurydice;

Information

Migration:Number of immigrants in each cohort-year-destination-origin cell(cohorts defined by 5 year age range).

Compulsory schooling:Information on: Year of reform, affected cohorts, change innumber of years of compulsory schooling.

Exposure to foreign languages in school:Information on: Year of reform, affected cohorts, range ofcompulsory languages.

Information

Sample

Years 2008-2012Individuals between 25 and 44 years of age.Destination countries (27) that provide data: Austria, Belgium,Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein,Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.Origin countries (31): destination countries plus France, Greece,Malta, and Portugal.

Descriptive statistics

Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max.immigrant inflow origin-dest by age 221 1,016 0 29,250years compulsory schooling 9.112 1.166 6 13exposed to foreign languages 0.091 0.285 0 1age group: 25-29 0.252 0.434 0 1age group: 30-34 0.252 0.432 0 1age group: 35-29 0.249 0.434 0 1age group: 40-44 0.248 0.432 0 1year: 2008 0.224 0.417 0 1year: 2009 0.183 0.387 0 1year: 2010 0.193 0.395 0 1year: 2011 0.195 0.396 0 1year: 2012 0.205 0.403 0 1difference destin.-orgin u-rates by age 0.005 0.059 -0.272 0.331stock migrants orgin-dest by age t − 1 1,797 10,279 0 324,571population by age 1,182,332 1,603,305 2,224 7,176,550years under communist rule 4.845 7.474 0 23.5Number of observations 11,205

Methodology

Model 1:

Ma,o,d,t = α0 + α1CSa,o,t + α2Da + α3Do + α4Dd + α5Dt + α6Da,o + α7Da,d +

+ α8Da,t + α9Do,d + α10Do,t + α11Dd,t + α12Xt + εa,o,d,t (1)

M: number of immigrants of age a from country o going to country d in year tCS: number of years of compulsory educationXt : stock of immigrants by country of origin, differences in the unemployment rates between thedestination country and the country of origin (both lagged), total population by age group, yearslived under communist rule.

Model 2:

Ma,o,d,t = β0 + β1La,o,d,t + β2Da + β3Do + β4Dd + β5Dt + β6Da,o + β7Da,d +

+ β8Da,t + β9Do,d + β10Do,t + β11Dd,t + β12Xt + εa,o,d,t (2)

L: exposure to compulsory language courses in the official language of country d .

Methodology

Model 1:

Ma,o,d,t = α0 + α1CSa,o,t + α2Da + α3Do + α4Dd + α5Dt + α6Da,o + α7Da,d +

+ α8Da,t + α9Do,d + α10Do,t + α11Dd,t + α12Xt + εa,o,d,t (1)

M: number of immigrants of age a from country o going to country d in year tCS: number of years of compulsory educationXt : stock of immigrants by country of origin, differences in the unemployment rates between thedestination country and the country of origin (both lagged), total population by age group, yearslived under communist rule.

Model 2:

Ma,o,d,t = β0 + β1La,o,d,t + β2Da + β3Do + β4Dd + β5Dt + β6Da,o + β7Da,d +

+ β8Da,t + β9Do,d + β10Do,t + β11Dd,t + β12Xt + εa,o,d,t (2)

L: exposure to compulsory language courses in the official language of country d .

ResultsCompulsory schooling on Education

(1) (2) (3)cs 0.335 0.349 0.308

(0.103)∗∗∗ (0.103)∗∗∗ (0.138)∗∗

Obs. 108 108 108R2 0.201 0.223 0.746

Age group dummies X XCountry dummies X

Data: Barro and Lee (2010)

Changes in compulsory schooling clearly affect actual years ofeducation.

ResultsCompulsory schooling on Migration

(1) (2) (3) (4)years of compulsory schooling -24.111 -31.168 -32.070 -30.685

(15.929) (15.896)∗∗ (14.932)∗∗ (15.116)∗∗

Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205R2 0.683 0.713 0.928 0.93All simple interactions X X XDestination by origin by year X XDestination by age by year X

One additional year of compulsory education reduces the number ofindividuals that migrate to a certain country by 31.

ResultsCompulsory schooling on Migration

(1) (2) (3) (4)years of compulsory schooling -22.066 -42.821 -32.110 -30.685

(16.070) (16.139)∗∗∗ (14.924)∗∗ (15.116)∗∗

years of compulsory schooling 69.956 -2.587 -10.223 65.351in destination (21.939)∗∗∗ (127.967) (27.719) (0.)Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205R2 0.684 0.725 0.928 0.93All simple interactions X X XDestination by origin by year X XDestination by age by year X

ResultsExposure to foreign language courses on migration

(1) (2) (3) (4)Foreign language classes 429.693 221.494 230.098 225.692

(131.716)∗∗∗ (121.035)∗ (118.636)∗ (121.697)∗

Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205R2 0.685 0.725 0.928 0.93All simple interactions X X XDestination by origin by year X XDestination by age by year X

Compulsory foreign language classes increase the number ofindividuals that move to country where language is spoken by 226.

Conclusion I

Theoretical models use education to explain heterogeneity inmigration choices.

Compulsory schooling laws significantly affect the distribution ofeducation.

The length of compulsory education negatively affectsinternational migration.

I One additional year of compulsory education reduces the numberof individuals that migrate to a certain country by 31 (14% reductionwith respect to mean).

Policy implications:I Policy makers should take into account that education reforms can

shape future international migration patterns of affected cohorts.

Conclusion I

Conclusion II

Host country’s language proficiency significantly affects themigration experience.

Exposure to foreign language classes has a positive significantimpact on migration decisions.

I In particular, studying the language of a country during compulsoryeducation increases the number of individuals that move to thatcountry by 226.

Policy implications:I Foreign language instruction can be used as an instrument to foster

efficiency in the labor market through reallocation of the workforce.

Conclusion II

Youth unemployment rates across Europe, 2011

(26.1,46.4](22.4,26.1](8.7,22.4][7.6,8.7]

Data: Eurostat

Return

MotivationEducation levels and migration rate

Data: Brücker, Capuano and Marfouk (2013)

Return

MotivationEducation levels of 20-34 year-olds

Data: Barro and Lee (2010)

ReturnAparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 30 / 27

Reforms: Compulsory Education

country before after first affected cohort country before after first affected cohortBelgium 8 12 1969 Netherlands 10 11 1973Bulgaria 8 9 1976 Netherlands 11 12 1980Czech Republic 9 10 1968 Netherlands 12 13 1987Czech Republic 10 9 1979 Norway 9 10 1991Estonia 8 11 1973 Poland 8 9 1992Estonia 11 9 1976 Portugal 6 9 1980Finland 6 9 1966 Romania 10 8 1976Germany 9 13 1977 Romania 8 9 1992Hungary 8 10 1987 Slovakia 9 10 1968Hungary 10 11 1988 Slovakia 10 9 1979Hungary 11 13 1992 Slovakia 9 10 1984Ireland 9 10 1990 Spain 8 10 1978Italy 8 9 1989Italy 9 10 1996Latvia 8 11 1973Latvia 11 9 1975Lithuania 8 11 1973Lithuania 11 9 1975Lithuania 9 10 1994Luxembourg 9 10 1972Luxembourg 10 11 1988Luxembourg 11 12 1996Macedonia 8 9 1999Malta 10 11 1983

Reforms: Compulsory Foreign Languages

origin countries destination countries first affected cohortAustria UK, Ireland 1975Belgium UK, Ireland 1978Bulgaria UK, Ireland 1975Croatia UK, Ireland 1979

Czech Republik UK, Ireland 1979Denmark Austria, Belgium, Germany 1961Estonia UK, Ireland 1979France Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1985Greece Austria, Belgium, Germany 1981Hungary UK, Ireland 1983

Italy Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1995Latvia UK, Ireland 1979

Lithuania UK, Ireland 1979Macedonia UK, Ireland 1979

Poland UK, Ireland 1979Portugal Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1990Romania UK, Ireland 1979Slovakia UK, Ireland 1979Slovenia UK, Ireland 1979Sweden Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1979

UK Austria, Belgium, Germany 1977

education policies and migration across european countries · education policies and migration...

Documents