pol 4410 migration. structure 1. economics of migration 2. political economy of migration 3....

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  • POL 4410Migration

  • StructureEconomics of migrationPolitical economy of migrationMigration PoliciesMigration and the USAMigration and Security

  • Economics of MigrationThink of migration like other flows: from abundant to scarce areas.What should relationship be between trade and migration?Who benefits in advanced countries? Who loses in developing states?

  • Economics of MigrationSupply0Supply1DemandEmployment$/hourCBD

  • Economics of MigrationUS income was 0.1% or $8bn higher because of immigration.Migration and allocative efficiencyMoving 100m migrants from low to high income countries could raise world GDP by 8%.

  • Migration HumpMigration FlowTimeAB

  • Different MigrantsDistinguish high-skill migrants from low-skill migrants. Why do high-skill migrants leave areas where they are scarce?Refugees and family members - non-economic migration.Migrants can also bring capital.

  • Political EconomyArrival of low-skill migrants will reduce returns to low-skilled work following Stopler-Samuleson.High-skill individuals benefit from new arrival of low-skill workers as do owners of capital and land.What about immigration of high-skill workers?

  • Race and ReligionNot just economic factors.Many countries dont mind white immigrants, even low-skilled ones. For example, Poles in Europe.Nonetheless, think of antipathy towards Irish, Southern, and eastern Europeans in USA in late 19C.Islam and immigration.

  • Migration PoliciesHigh Skills: Supply and Demand PoliciesLow Skills: Guest Workers, Amnesty, and Refugees and FamiliesThe Three Rs

  • High Skills: SupplyPoints systems: Canada, UK, AustraliaIdentify high-skilled workers who would benefit economy.They pick usAuctioning visas

  • High Skills: DemandEmployer demand. Migrant as most suitable applicant for jobLabor market tests.H1B visas.Auction off visas to employers?Requires significant bureaucracy

  • Low Skills: Guest WorkersGuest workers are temporary and fill 3D jobs. germany 1970s. US Braceros.Attempt to prevent long-run increase in migrant population.But difficult to convince people to go home. End up with families arriving.Over-reliance on cheap labor inputs: catsupPlus, civil and political problems.

  • Low Skills: AmnestyReagan offered Amnesty to migrants in 1980s.Allows immigrants to enter work force and stay permanently.But reduces deterrent threat to illegal immigration.Civil and political problems.

  • Low Skills: Refugees and FamiliesAsylum-seekers are the newest group of migrants. From post Cold War collapse of many states: Somalia, Kosovo, Albania, Afghanistan.UN Convention on Refugees. 1951.owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that countryFamilies: can these groups really be denied access. What to do about family members who do not join workforce?

  • The Three Rs: ReturnGetting emigrants to returnDiaspora-led development: Taiwan, Ireland.Taiwan Hinschu Science-Based Industrial Park. 40% of companies headed by returneesSubsidize returnees through UNDP? Typically returnees only stay as long as the subsidy does.

  • RemittancesRemittances are massively important component of income for many states. Multiplier effect of 2-3. Stable.Major recipients: India, Mexico, Philippines.Jordan (23% GDP), Nicaragua (17%)Good source of foreign currency but need official banking channels and low costsBrazil floated bond against future remittances in 2001. Some Asian states, Korea, stipulate set level of remittances

  • Recruitment and Brain DrainRecruiting high skill migrants means taking them out of poor countries where they may be needed: teachers, nurses, doctors, entrepreneurs.Compensation?Or does brain drain actually help poorer states by raising the return to education?

  • Migration in the USACurrent Political Debate: 12 million illegals. Pressure on wages and on social services.House Bill of 2005: Build Wall, Impose strict penalties on employers, criminalize illegals and those that help themSenate Bill of 2005 (McCain / Kennedy): Z-Visa illegals here for 5 years can apply for citizenship after paying fine. i.e. amnesty for 10 million. No chain migrationY-Visa 6 yr guest worker schemeRemove employer sponsorship and replace with points systemIncreased border enforcement

  • Legal and Illegal

  • Differences across USA

  • Dynamic Picture

  • Latin American Bias

  • Across Time

  • Card vs. BorjasCard: immigrants cannot have taken jobs - they have expanded workforce. Most are unskilled. Wages didnt change following 1986 amnesty. Mariel boatlift.Borjas: argues that those without college have suffered 5% decline in real wages or $1,200 per annum.

  • Peri DataU-Shaped ImmigrationImmigration - at worst - produced one seventh of the gap between low skill and high skillsImportance of Skill ComplementaritiesGiovanni Peri Presentation

  • Minutemen and Lou!MinutemenLou!

  • Migration and SecurityAll of the 9/11 attackers entered US through migration schemes.But most of the attacks in Europe have been by 2nd generation immigrants.Restrictions on entry have greatly reduced numbers of foreign students. Cost benefit analysis.

  • RudolphMigration is higher during times of major security threat because of rally around flag: e.g. during Cold War.65% of Americans favored restrictions in 1993 compared to 42% in 1977. Prop. 187 passes in CA in 1994.

  • Migration post 9/1165% of Americans post 9/11 wanted to stop ALL immigration (Fox News).Mexicans as terrorists (see Minutemen)Fingerprints for visitors. EBSVERA (2002)

  • Migration Elsewhere

  • Education of Migrants

  • Unemployment

  • Migration and DiversityJan Nederveen Pieterse argues that globalization is creating diversity and hybrid cultures rather than a McWorld.Is this driven by migration or trade?Can we import culture without importing people?

  • Effects of Globalization on the Welfare StateNEGATIVE: Ability of citizens to move and businesses to leave means taxes must be kept low.POSITIVE: Volatility caused by trade shocks and capital flows means citizens demand protection from the state.

  • Trade and Finance (Garrett)Collision Course vs. Virtuous CircleArgues that despite increased trade and capital mobility since 1960, governments are able to sustain heavy budget deficits and to tax capital at high rates.Consequently, the welfare state is unlikely to be harmed by globalization

  • Trade

  • Finance

  • Public Spending

  • Taxation of Capital

  • Effects of Migration on Welfare StateBorjas argues that OECD states are welfare magnets attracting migrants. Shows that immigrant welfare recipients cluster in high welfare US states.Razin and Sadka show that where pension systems are large, welfare state may be supported by migration, even of low skilled workers.Europe and US thus face different impact on welfare state of migration.

  • Labor in the Developing WorldWhy do we see migration if trade is good for the poor in the developing world? Can trade substitute for migration?Longstanding argument about whether unskilled in developing world benefit from trade or lose out.Are sweatshops and child labor good or bad things?

  • Does Labor Benefit? (Rudra)Nita Rudra argues that H/O model predicts that unskilled labor in developing world should benefit from globalization.If economic power translates into political power, they would advocate for government spending. But such spending is low. Why?Rudra creates Potential Labor Power (PLP) index which measures (a) strength of unions, and (b) reserve army of informal sector. Without PLP, workers, though richer, cannot gain political goals.

  • Two Cheers for SweatshopsSweatshops are certainly very harshBut... Are preferable jobs attainable?Can sweatshop jobs act as a first step to better conditions?

  • Dying for Growth?Millen and Holtz argue that MNCs subcontract to local firms that violate labor laws and pay low wages.Export Processing Zones are often made exempt from labor lawsLax environmental regulation is also problematic. Maquiladoras receive raw materials from USA but fail to repatriate waste. Ends up in Mexico.

  • DMello and Reebok Concept of manufacturing without factoriesFocuses on Reeboks subcontractor Phoenix International near Delhi. Sexual abuse, beatings, forced overtime.Labor organization and strike lead to Reebok ending its contract.